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Potential Jennings trade thread (POLL ADDED)

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Would you trade Jennings before the deadline

Yes (if yes, let us know what it would take)
31
46%
No (what would you sign him to, long term)
36
54%
 
Total votes : 67

Post#136 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:55 am by AussieBuck

ampd wrote:Kyle Lowry is not better than Jennings. That trade would be horrendous.

Perfect example of just looking at box scores and a couple random advanced stats on basketball reference not telling the whole story. The only thing Lowry does better than Jennings is have a higher career TS%.

He's better by every advanced stat that I've seen. Jennings might be the better on ball defender. Not sure what else he's better at.
aol4532 wrote:what exactly is the difference between him (Bill Russell), and say a guy like Ryan Hollins, who is 20 lbs heavier and can get his head over the rim? He would get in foul trouble so quick, just trying to hold position.
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Post#137 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 2:19 am by Bobicous

One big factor I think most of you are missing is Jennings is a name beyond just the NBA. He is that rare player that has fans outside the NBA and brings a focus to the Bucks that no other player they have or have talked about getting have. Just look at his commercials, or how his name was in the news all the time during the lockout from playing. That brings fans, sells jerseys, its a big part of the money part of the game.

The funny thing is people want to say nothing has improved with Jennings but the ignore improvement, just like about a month ago every is saying "he can't throw the lob" and yeat I see several high lights from almost every game of him lobbing to Sanders or Henson. The fact is the kid is a gym rat, he is willing to put the time in, does anyone really think he won't work on his offhand after getting it pointed out? Seems to like the Bucks and the city and at some level that has to matter. Not sure why people are going crazy about 4/10 for Jennings when we are paying close to that on scrubs like Ersanity and Gooden? At some point a small market team needs to take a risk and I can see alot of people I would be way more willing to move than Jennings.
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Post#138 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 2:26 am by ampd

AussieBuck wrote:
ampd wrote:Kyle Lowry is not better than Jennings. That trade would be horrendous.

Perfect example of just looking at box scores and a couple random advanced stats on basketball reference not telling the whole story. The only thing Lowry does better than Jennings is have a higher career TS%.

He's better by every advanced stat that I've seen. Jennings might be the better on ball defender. Not sure what else he's better at.


I'm willing to back off the word horrendous which was really just hyperbole. As far as player value goes, it would be nice to get a productive player back for Gooden, keep some cap space, and get a good roleplaying PG in Lowry. Asset value wise it probably isn't a massive win for either team since Gooden is such a negative asset at this point.

Amir and Lowry are both pretty good moneyball type players and I'm obviously fine with acquiring those guys on general principle.

My reaction to the trade was mostly a team direction standpoint. Trading a high upside guy who is wildly inconsistent but productive for a couple consistent but uninspiring guys is well.. uninspiring. And one of those guys is at a position where we have a billion players already who need minutes, and isn't significantly better than those players.It feels like kicking the can down the road for a season while staying in win now without getting any real win now players. Like trading a #2 or 3 option on a contender in Jennings for a #4 and #6 option. Spinning our wheels while managing to reduce our upside and virtually lock us into mediocrity for another season.
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Post#139 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 2:27 am by AussieBuck

I don't see Jennings as a high upside guy but I can see your POV.
aol4532 wrote:what exactly is the difference between him (Bill Russell), and say a guy like Ryan Hollins, who is 20 lbs heavier and can get his head over the rim? He would get in foul trouble so quick, just trying to hold position.
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Post#140 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 2:47 am by Baddy Chuck

AussieBuck wrote:I don't see Jennings as a high upside guy but I can see your POV.

That's about where I am right now.

What is his potential?

Is he Damon Stoudemire who peaked early then fell off?
Is he Nick Van Exel who was a pretty consistently inconsistent player throughout his career?
Is he going to change his game completely and become a real team leader and raise his play like Chauncey Billups?
Is he going to raise his efficiency and just be a Mo Williams with more swag?
Is he going to improve his efficiency only a little but greatly improve his playmaking and become like Jrue Holiday?
Is he just going to stay the same Brandon we've seen for four years now?

I'd have to believe he's closer to the lower end of those scenarios.
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Post#141 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 3:08 am by ampd

I don't think its a mental thing like it is with Monta where he will just never figure it out because he doesn't want to and prefers to just skate by on natural ability. The things most holding Jennings back are things that are very likely to improve over time, in his jumper, floater, and finishing which are at least partly about technique that can be taught, learned, and improved upon with work, which he is willing to do. To me that makes it at least fairly likely that he will have at least a mini break out at some point.

If I had to put a number on it, I'd say something like 50/50. I'll take that shot given our situation.
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Post#142 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 3:15 am by linguini8

Bobicous wrote:One big factor I think most of you are missing is Jennings is a name beyond just the NBA. He is that rare player that has fans outside the NBA and brings a focus to the Bucks that no other player they have or have talked about getting have. Just look at his commercials, or how his name was in the news all the time during the lockout from playing. That brings fans, sells jerseys, its a big part of the money part of the game.

The funny thing is people want to say nothing has improved with Jennings but the ignore improvement, just like about a month ago every is saying "he can't throw the lob" and yeat I see several high lights from almost every game of him lobbing to Sanders or Henson. The fact is the kid is a gym rat, he is willing to put the time in, does anyone really think he won't work on his offhand after getting it pointed out? Seems to like the Bucks and the city and at some level that has to matter. Not sure why people are going crazy about 4/10 for Jennings when we are paying close to that on scrubs like Ersanity and Gooden? At some point a small market team needs to take a risk and I can see alot of people I would be way more willing to move than Jennings.


You don't think after 3 seasons in the NBA, with a 5+ man coaching staff, watching film every week, that he hasn't had his flaws pointed out to him? We hear it every season. "Brandon Jennings has been really putting in the work this summer. He's been the first one in and last one out of the Cousins Center... blah blah blah." No we still have not seen any significant improvments. I don't think anyone would be going crazy if we were talking about signing Jennings to Ersan money. It's the extra 8-10mil that has people uninterested.
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Post#143 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 3:21 am by Baddy Chuck

ampd wrote:I don't think its a mental thing like it is with Monta where he will just never figure it out because he doesn't want to and prefers to just skate by on natural ability. The things most holding Jennings back are things that are very likely to improve over time, in his jumper, floater, and finishing which are at least partly about technique that can be taught, learned, and improved upon with work, which he is willing to do. To me that makes it at least fairly likely that he will have at least a mini break out at some point.

If I had to put a number on it, I'd say something like 50/50. I'll take that shot given our situation.

But what is him getting it together? If he's just a Mo Williams type guy I don't see how that's worth $10 million. And he would have to take a pretty big step to even be Mo Williams.
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Post#144 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:08 am by JayMKE

Baddy Chuck wrote:
ampd wrote:I don't think its a mental thing like it is with Monta where he will just never figure it out because he doesn't want to and prefers to just skate by on natural ability. The things most holding Jennings back are things that are very likely to improve over time, in his jumper, floater, and finishing which are at least partly about technique that can be taught, learned, and improved upon with work, which he is willing to do. To me that makes it at least fairly likely that he will have at least a mini break out at some point.

If I had to put a number on it, I'd say something like 50/50. I'll take that shot given our situation.

But what is him getting it together? If he's just a Mo Williams type guy I don't see how that's worth $10 million. And he would have to take a pretty big step to even be Mo Williams.


If Moe Williams was 23, he'd be worth $10 mil. That just what the market is now.
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Post#145 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:17 am by Bfinkish

Bj and gooden for Dragic and gortat

Monta, sammy, tobes and a pick for Eric Gordon (as long as he's healthy)

Dragic/beno/lamb
Gordon/MDJ/lamb
LRMM/ersan
Sanders/Henson
Gortat/grandpa udoh


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Post#146 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:21 am by Baddy Chuck

JayMKE wrote:If Moe Williams was 23, he'd be worth $10 mil. That just what the market is now.

But Brandon is a C list version of Mo right now, that's worth 10 million?

Also, I'm not hung up on this age thing. Great, he's 23. He's 4 seasons into the league, that's what I would look at. Especially 4 seasons into the league with as many minutes as Jennings has played. I mean, just because a guy is young doesn't mean he has a whole lot of potential then he's shown. The only player who was really young that I can think of that broke out after 4 years in the league is Jermaine O'Neal.
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Post#147 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 5:28 am by Baddy Chuck

Baddy Chuck wrote:Also, I'm not hung up on this age thing. Great, he's 23. He's 4 seasons into the league, that's what I would look at. Especially 4 seasons into the league with as many minutes as Jennings has played. I mean, just because a guy is young doesn't mean he has a whole lot of potential then he's shown. The only player who was really young that I can think of that broke out after 4 years in the league is Jermaine O'Neal.

To just elaborate on this, here is the list (in my opinion) of guys who became more then role players in the league the past 10 years who were drafted as sophomores or younger so they would be somewhere around 24 or younger at the time their 4 years were over.

I'm bolding the ones who really improved after their fourth season.

Tyson Chandler - Took him until his 6th season and being traded to play with Chris Paul.
Jason Richardson
Joe Johnson - His fourth year he showed signs of breaking out and he did in his fifth year. Then when he was traded to Atlanta he took it the next step.
Zach Randolph - Not sure about this one. He was a 20 and 10 guy within the four years but he didn't "click" in the head until about his ninth season. I'd say he shouldn't be bolded.
Gerald Wallace - He was buried on Sacramento's bench until he was drafted by Charlotte in the expansion draft and he hit his stride in his fifth year.
Gilbert Arenas - He was one of the top players in the league his fourth year, but his 5th and 6th years he became pretty much a super star, not sure if he should've been bolded?
Amare Stoudemire
Caron Butler
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Mo Williams
Dwight Howard
Luol Deng
Andre Iguodala
Al Jefferson
Josh Smith
Chris Paul
Andrew Bynum - Took him around 7 years to his his true peak.
Monta Ellis
Lamarcus Aldridge
Rudy Gay
Rajon Rondo
Kevin Durant
Mike Conley
Derrick Rose
OJ Mayo - His first two years he was the guy he is right now, then he got benched for a smaller role and came back slightly better, not sure if he should be bolded? I think his numbers will fall back towards year 1+2 norms.
Russell Westbrook
Kevin Love
Brook Lopez
Eric Gordon
Ryan Anderson
Blake Griffin
James Harden
DeMar DeRozan
Jrue Holiday

Two of them were big men drafted right out of high school and one didn't really play at all until nearly his 4th year.

I'd say the list of young guys who took a step in their games after 4 years in the league in pretty small.
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Post#148 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:09 am by JayMKE

And what does Kyle Lowry accomplish?

Are we a contender? Not even close. Are we any better? Barely if at all. Will we be mediocre? Hell yes.

Not interested in taking on 27-28 year old role players at this point. Would rather Jennings just walks.
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Post#149 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:15 am by Baddy Chuck

JayMKE wrote:And what does Kyle Lowry accomplish?

Are we a contender? Not even close. Are we any better? Barely if at all. Will we be mediocre? Hell yes.

Not interested in taking on 27-28 year old role players at this point. Would rather Jennings just walks.

You'd rather let Jennings walk then get an asset? And a pretty good one at that?
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Post#150 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:18 am by blazza18

What is Lowry's contract like ?
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Post#151 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:20 am by Baddy Chuck

blazza18 wrote:What is Lowry's contract like ?

5,750,000 this season and a partially guaranteed 6,210,000 next season. He is on a ridiculously good deal that would be easily moveable.
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Post#152 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:22 am by blazza18

Well at that price I'm sold. Time to move on. Jennings will want double that.
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Post#153 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:26 am by JayMKE

Baddy Chuck wrote:
blazza18 wrote:What is Lowry's contract like ?

5,750,000 this season and a partially guaranteed 6,210,000 next season. He is on a ridiculously good deal that would be easily moveable.


Yes, I'd rather tank and get a nicer pick than 1 year of Kyle Lowry. Trading for a guy you want to trade right away is just dumb as we've all seen with Monta Ellis. If we're desperate to get an "asset" for Jennings then cash out for the best draft pick or prospect you can get. I am in no way interested in perpetuating mediocrity.
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Post#154 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:30 am by Baddy Chuck

That's the thing though, I would absolutely love to trade Jennings for a rebuilding package but Kohl and co. aren't giving up the playoffs. With Lowry we would still be in the playoff picture and we could then have an asset after the season if they finally give up the 8th seed chase rather then nothing or an overpaid Jennings (who himself would be spinning the wheels on mediocrity more then Lowry).
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Post#155 Re: Ford: Jennings #7 on players most likely
Sat Jan 19, 2013 6:52 am by jr lucosa

I can't see Kohl looking at Kyle Lowry and thinking that's an upgrade from Brandon. Less PPG, similar FG %, similar APG. Isn't a full time starter. Is he even going to glance at anything else?
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