by ElPeregrino on Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:14 am
I tried to post this yesterday but I guess it takes a day before you can post. Anyway I noticed Brandon Jennings almost single handedly controls the fate of the Bucks based on how he plays. I will demonstrate this with a stat I call IMPACT (the formula is below). Very simply put, it measures the impact a player has on the game with their scoring by taking their efficiency and multiplying it by their attempts. Every player is given an IMPACT rating (the higher, the better). An IMPACT rating of 0 is what I call “average” (though technically it’s slightly above average). For example, if a player is 1/2 from the field and has no turnovers, free throw attempts, or three pointers (ie: 2 pts on 2 shots), they will have an IMPACT rating of zero.
There are obvious downsides to this stat. Mainly, it only is a way to measure how much a player’s scoring affects their team. It says nothing for a player’s defense or passing or anything else. That being said, here is a leaderboard of selected players for IMPACT this season (out of all 448 players):
1) Kevin Durant (+163)
2) LeBron James (+129.5)
3) Tyson Chandler (+84)
4) Kyle Korver (+78.5)
5) Kevin Martin (+60.5)
5) Steve Novak (+60.5)
22) Mike Dunleavy (+21)
44) J.J. Redick (+4.5)
60) Samuel Dalembert (0)
106) Joel Przybilla (-7)
130) Ersan Ilyasova (-9.5)
133) Tobias Harris (-10)
179) Drew Gooden (-20)
238) Gustavo Ayon (-29)
254) Larry Sanders (-31.5)
281) John Henson (-37.5)
295) Doron Lamb (-40.5)
310) Beno Udrih (-44.5)
311) Ekpe Udoh (-45)
349) Marquis Daniels (57.5)
355) Ish Smith (-61.5)
395) Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (-86.5)
437) Brandon Jennings (-140)
443) Josh Smith (-174)
444) Roy Hibbert (-176.5)
445) Jrue Holiday (-183.5)
446) Greivis Vasquez (-186)
447) Rudy Gay (-188.5)
448) Monta Ellis (-232)
That might’ve been a bit boring, but where things really got interesting to me is with Brandon Jennings. The IMPACT rating of Jennings has an extremely strong correlation with the Bucks W-L result in the game. Far, far more so than any other player (or any other single stat from any other player I have seen). Here are the numbers I pulled up yesterday:
In games this season where Jennings has had a positive IMPACT, the Bucks are 15-2
In games this season where Jennings has had an IMPACT of -6 or worse, the Bucks are 3-16,
In games last season where Jennings has a positive IMPACT, the Bucks went 16-7
In games last season where Jennings has an IMPACT of -5 or worse, the Bucks went 3-15,
In games two years ago where Jennings had an IMPACT of 0 or better, the Bucks went 15-2
In games two years ago where Jennings had an IMPACT worse than -4, the Bucks went 2-20,
In games during his rookie year, when Jennings posted a positive IMPACT, the Bucks went 13-1
To compare, in games where Monta Ellis has had a positive IMPACT this season, the Bucks are 3-4
IMPACT=(A*2+B+C)/(D+E+F/2)
A=FGM
B=free throws made
C=three pointers made
D=FGA
E=turnovers
F= free throw attempts
TL;DR The Bucks go as Jennings goes.
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Here are the Bucks IMPACT ratings for this game:
Brandon Jennings (7.5)
Samuel Dalembert (1)
Ekpe Udoh (0.5)
Ersan Ilyasova (0)
Larry Sanders (-0.5)
John Henson (-0.5)
Beno Udrih (-2)
Mike Dunleavy (-2)
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (-6)
Monta Ellis (-11.5)
as well.
