ImageImage

The Khris Middleton Thread

Moderators: paulpressey25, MickeyDavis

User avatar
SkilesTheLimit
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,780
And1: 1,795
Joined: Oct 23, 2010
Location: Pop Up Zone
     

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#421 » by SkilesTheLimit » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:00 pm

LUKE23 wrote:It's only a real max for one year, even if people don't want to look at it that way, it's reality. Percentage of cap taken up matters more than per year dollar amount. $15M per year next year is not the same as $15M per year in 2016-17 and beyond. That said, I don't think he gets a max offer.


I think he gets a 4/48 offer. And we match.

If Knight was playing like he was earlier in the year and stayed healthy as a Buck all season he would've gotten a max offer. His stats would've looked too good. Wouldn't be surprised at all if Middleton gets a better RFA offer now.
We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees.
- Jason Kidd
User avatar
LUKE23
RealGM
Posts: 72,264
And1: 6,213
Joined: May 26, 2005
Location: Stunville
       

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#422 » by LUKE23 » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:03 pm

Even if the projections are off, they aren't going to be THAT off.

Also, what is your definition of, "not good"? Not an all-star or superstar? Agree. But he's good, very good arguably. One of the best shooters in the NBA and he's a really damn good defender. He's key to what we do at both ends.
User avatar
emunney
RealGM
Posts: 60,035
And1: 36,431
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: where takes go to be pampered

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#423 » by emunney » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:08 pm

Newz wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:It's only a real max for one year, even if people don't want to look at it that way, it's reality. Percentage of cap taken up matters more than per year dollar amount. $15M per year next year is not the same as $15M per year in 2016-17 and beyond. That said, I don't think he gets a max offer.


I wouldn't state that as a fact considering I don't know how teams will react once the cap explodes (if it does explode as much as it is projected to). I'm not sure if guys who have previously got max deals will continue to get max deals. Like obviously LeBron, AD, Durant, Westbrook, etc. will get whatever the new max deal is... like $30+ million or whatever on an annual basis.

But will teams keep throwing max money at guys like Rudy Gay, Michael Redd, Larry Hughes, etc. once it balloons up that far? Or will the expanded cap make top end players start to separate more into tiers as opposed to there just being several max players?

Like for example if Jabari turns out to be as good as... I dunno... let's say Big Dog. Are we actually going to give him the absolute max or will things start to tier off more? Because it's one thing to give a guy like Big Dog $15-$17 million a year, but it's completely different to give him $30 million+ a year. Is it the same percentage? Yeah. Maybe teams will just adjust the percentage and keep going as things were... but I could see things being shaken up.

Regardless... Middleton isn't that good. I hope we retain him. I'm not sure I'd want him back at ~$17 million a year or whatever though. Especially since the cap explosion is still just a projection as opposed to a reality at this point.


There may be an adjustment period because of the rapid inflation, but I haven't heard of a good reason to think fewer players are going to get the max just because the scale is changing. There would have less competiton for that talent, and why would that happen?
Here are more legal notices regarding the Posts
Newz
Banned User
Posts: 42,328
And1: 2,551
Joined: Dec 05, 2005

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#424 » by Newz » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:10 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Even if the projections are off, they aren't going to be THAT off.

Also, what is your definition of, "not good"? Not an all-star or superstar? Agree. But he's good, very good arguably. One of the best shooters in the NBA and he's a really damn good defender. He's key to what we do at both ends.


I like Middleton. I'm not sure he's a top 3 guy on a team that can win a title though. Maybe if he keeps improving, but that's obviously far from a given that he will continue to get better.
Newz
Banned User
Posts: 42,328
And1: 2,551
Joined: Dec 05, 2005

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#425 » by Newz » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:12 pm

emunney wrote:
Newz wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:It's only a real max for one year, even if people don't want to look at it that way, it's reality. Percentage of cap taken up matters more than per year dollar amount. $15M per year next year is not the same as $15M per year in 2016-17 and beyond. That said, I don't think he gets a max offer.


I wouldn't state that as a fact considering I don't know how teams will react once the cap explodes (if it does explode as much as it is projected to). I'm not sure if guys who have previously got max deals will continue to get max deals. Like obviously LeBron, AD, Durant, Westbrook, etc. will get whatever the new max deal is... like $30+ million or whatever on an annual basis.

But will teams keep throwing max money at guys like Rudy Gay, Michael Redd, Larry Hughes, etc. once it balloons up that far? Or will the expanded cap make top end players start to separate more into tiers as opposed to there just being several max players?

Like for example if Jabari turns out to be as good as... I dunno... let's say Big Dog. Are we actually going to give him the absolute max or will things start to tier off more? Because it's one thing to give a guy like Big Dog $15-$17 million a year, but it's completely different to give him $30 million+ a year. Is it the same percentage? Yeah. Maybe teams will just adjust the percentage and keep going as things were... but I could see things being shaken up.

Regardless... Middleton isn't that good. I hope we retain him. I'm not sure I'd want him back at ~$17 million a year or whatever though. Especially since the cap explosion is still just a projection as opposed to a reality at this point.


There may be an adjustment period because of the rapid inflation, but I haven't heard of a good reason to think fewer players are going to get the max just because the scale is changing. There would have less competiton for that talent, and why would that happen?


I don't know.

I'm just not going to state things as a fact when I have no idea what NBA executives are thinking and how they'll deal with the cap explosion. I also don't know if owners will give the go ahead to give guys like Rudy Gay $30 million a year as opposed to $15 million a year. Yeah, maybe they do it without blinking an eye... but again, I'm not going to state that as a fact.

I know if I was running a franchise I'd be a lot more reluctant to max guys who aren't proven superstars or all-stars. If they flop you'll be wasting almost twice as much money on them (if the estimates are correct).
User avatar
LUKE23
RealGM
Posts: 72,264
And1: 6,213
Joined: May 26, 2005
Location: Stunville
       

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#426 » by LUKE23 » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:17 pm

And what does he really need to improve? Not his shot or his defense. Attacking closeouts, ball handling, etc. I also don't like pigeon holing players as "top 3 on a contender". Each team is different. Obviously, we are not adding any more top 5 picks to this core. We have a lot invested in Giannis/Jabari. But an elite 3 point shooter who is also a top shelf defender is insanely valuable with our current team, and he's only 23.
Newz
Banned User
Posts: 42,328
And1: 2,551
Joined: Dec 05, 2005

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#427 » by Newz » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:34 pm

LUKE23 wrote:And what does he really need to improve? Not his shot or his defense. Attacking closeouts, ball handling, etc. I also don't like pigeon holing players as "top 3 on a contender". Each team is different. Obviously, we are not adding any more top 5 picks to this core. We have a lot invested in Giannis/Jabari. But an elite 3 point shooter who is also a top shelf defender is insanely valuable with our current team, and he's only 23.


Do you think Giannis/Jabari/Middleton is a group of guys who can win a title if they are the best three players on a team? I personally do not think so unless one of those guys surprises me in their development. If you don't want to think of it that way, then that's fine. But that's how I approach things.

I think Giannis has a chance to be really good. Like probably Paul George (pre-injury, obviously) level good. I had super high hopes for Jabari, but he's obviously a pretty big question mark now... and I view Middleton more as a role player than a 'star' or someone that you can really rely on to ever carry a team or be a primary contributor.

Middleton is certainly an excellent role player. I just think it's amusing that people are acting like those who wouldn't automatically match if someone throws $17 million a year at him are mindless idiots who are clueless about all things basketball related.

Khris Middleton isn't that important to building a contender, at least in my opinion. If the cap explodes and all things remain the same as far as how contracts are given out, then yeah he'll likely be worth $17 million. But I do think there is a chance he also under performs as well if we give him a big deal. So if he got what equals a $10 million dollar a year deal under the current salary structure, I could see him not being worth that.

High end talent, star players, superstars... whatever you want to call them. Those are still the guys who win in the NBA. Khris Middleton is not one of those guys. I can see how some here might disagree with that as there were times where people were saying he was a 'number one option' and stuff like that... but I just don't see it, at all.
User avatar
LUKE23
RealGM
Posts: 72,264
And1: 6,213
Joined: May 26, 2005
Location: Stunville
       

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#428 » by LUKE23 » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:37 pm

Newz wrote:
Do you think Giannis/Jabari/Middleton is a group of guys who can win a title if they are the best three players on a team?


Assuming we have solid starters at the other two spots, and enough defense/shooting off the bench, yes. I think PG and C still need upgrades, and that the other players just need to mature. I mean, we did win 41 being really damn young and having MCW play really poor for us, and starting Zaza, and without Parker, and Giannis only in year 2.

If you are asking me for guarantees, you won't get any. But yes, I think we can build a title contender off this core with the right moves, and player improvement.
Newz
Banned User
Posts: 42,328
And1: 2,551
Joined: Dec 05, 2005

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#429 » by Newz » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:44 pm

LUKE23 wrote:
Newz wrote:
Do you think Giannis/Jabari/Middleton is a group of guys who can win a title if they are the best three players on a team?


Assuming we have solid starters at the other two spots, and enough defense/shooting off the bench, yes. I think PG and C still need upgrades, and that the other players just need to mature. I mean, we did win 41 being really damn young and having MCW play really poor for us, and starting Zaza, and without Parker, and Giannis only in year 2.

If you are asking me for guarantees, you won't get any. But yes, I think we can build a title contender off this core with the right moves, and player improvement.


Well a big chunk of those 41 wins came earlier in the year when Dudley, Mayo, Bayless, Zaza and (at the very beginning of the year) Ersan were all playing better. We also had Knight who was having a career year and adding efficient scoring to the equation for a team that really needed it. If MCW was on the team and playing like this the whole year and if those vets didn't all click at the same time, I highly doubt we end up winning 41 games.

I guess I'd have to know what we mean by 'solid starters' before I could agree that we could win with those guys.

I mean maybe I'm selling Giannis short and Jabari comes back 100% to become a dominant player. Because if that's the case then I suppose we could get it done. But I don't think I'm as high on Giannis as some here (like I have seen posts saying people will be disappointed if he isn't the best player in the league, wouldn't trade him for AD, would use him like LeBron/Magic, think he's on the level of a guy like KG) and I was super high on Jabari... but the injury obviously brings those expectations down a lot until we see what happens when he comes back.

I'm optimistic about this core becoming a 50 win team who is fun to watch. I'm not sold on them morphing into a title contender yet. I hope I'm wrong though, I hope Giannis is seven foot Scottie Pippen with laser beam eyes and rocket launcher finger tips. I hope Jabari turns into a bigger Paul Pierce and the injury doesn't impact him. I hope Middleton randomly blossoms into Jimmy Butler part 2. That would be awesome.
User avatar
emunney
RealGM
Posts: 60,035
And1: 36,431
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: where takes go to be pampered

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#430 » by emunney » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:45 pm

Newz wrote:
emunney wrote:
Newz wrote:
I wouldn't state that as a fact considering I don't know how teams will react once the cap explodes (if it does explode as much as it is projected to). I'm not sure if guys who have previously got max deals will continue to get max deals. Like obviously LeBron, AD, Durant, Westbrook, etc. will get whatever the new max deal is... like $30+ million or whatever on an annual basis.

But will teams keep throwing max money at guys like Rudy Gay, Michael Redd, Larry Hughes, etc. once it balloons up that far? Or will the expanded cap make top end players start to separate more into tiers as opposed to there just being several max players?

Like for example if Jabari turns out to be as good as... I dunno... let's say Big Dog. Are we actually going to give him the absolute max or will things start to tier off more? Because it's one thing to give a guy like Big Dog $15-$17 million a year, but it's completely different to give him $30 million+ a year. Is it the same percentage? Yeah. Maybe teams will just adjust the percentage and keep going as things were... but I could see things being shaken up.

Regardless... Middleton isn't that good. I hope we retain him. I'm not sure I'd want him back at ~$17 million a year or whatever though. Especially since the cap explosion is still just a projection as opposed to a reality at this point.


There may be an adjustment period because of the rapid inflation, but I haven't heard of a good reason to think fewer players are going to get the max just because the scale is changing. There would have less competiton for that talent, and why would that happen?


I don't know.

I'm just not going to state things as a fact when I have no idea what NBA executives are thinking and how they'll deal with the cap explosion. I also don't know if owners will give the go ahead to give guys like Rudy Gay $30 million a year as opposed to $15 million a year. Yeah, maybe they do it without blinking an eye... but again, I'm not going to state that as a fact.

I know if I was running a franchise I'd be a lot more reluctant to max guys who aren't proven superstars or all-stars. If they flop you'll be wasting almost twice as much money on them (if the estimates are correct).


I don't know that the sun's going to rise tomorrow, but unless I have a reason to expect it might not, I'm going to proceed with a reasonable assumption.

Do you see a reason to doubt any of the following?

1) There will still be many players on rookie and minimum contracts.
2) Teams will continue to actively spend the money they're required to spend on player salaries.
3) Teams will continue to evaluate players imperfectly.
4) There will continue to be a high level of competition for free agents.

These are the basic circumstances that result in overpaid veterans and the unworthy max contract. I don't think it's out of bounds to treat these as established realities until or unless there's a reason to believe they are not or will not continue to be.
Here are more legal notices regarding the Posts
Newz
Banned User
Posts: 42,328
And1: 2,551
Joined: Dec 05, 2005

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#431 » by Newz » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:47 pm

emunney wrote:I don't know that the sun's going to rise tomorrow, but unless I have a reason to expect it might not, I'm going to proceed with a reasonable assumption.

Do you see a reason to doubt any of the following?

1) There will still be many players on rookie and minimum contracts.
2) Teams will continue to actively spend the money they're required to spend on player salaries.
3) Teams will continue to evaluate players imperfectly.
4) There will continue to be a high level of competition for free agents.

These are the basic circumstances that result in overpaid veterans and the unworthy max contract. I don't think it's out of bounds to treat these as established realities until or unless there's a reason to believe they are not or will not continue to be.


Sure.

Nothing will change, everything will remain the exact same. Theorizing anything different or attempting to do some critical thinking on it is obviously pointless.
User avatar
Nowak008
RealGM
Posts: 14,588
And1: 4,303
Joined: Jul 07, 2006
Location: Book Publisher
Contact:

The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#432 » by Nowak008 » Mon Apr 27, 2015 5:54 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:A max offer is going to look like a 10 million dollar a year contract in one year. If you think Middleton is worth $10 million a year in today's NBA reality, he's worth a max contract.


This. Plus there a ton of teams with a wad of money to blow.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
User avatar
emunney
RealGM
Posts: 60,035
And1: 36,431
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: where takes go to be pampered

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#433 » by emunney » Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:01 pm

Newz wrote:
emunney wrote:I don't know that the sun's going to rise tomorrow, but unless I have a reason to expect it might not, I'm going to proceed with a reasonable assumption.

Do you see a reason to doubt any of the following?

1) There will still be many players on rookie and minimum contracts.
2) Teams will continue to actively spend the money they're required to spend on player salaries.
3) Teams will continue to evaluate players imperfectly.
4) There will continue to be a high level of competition for free agents.

These are the basic circumstances that result in overpaid veterans and the unworthy max contract. I don't think it's out of bounds to treat these as established realities until or unless there's a reason to believe they are not or will not continue to be.


Sure.

Nothing will change, everything will remain the exact same. Theorizing anything different or attempting to do some critical thinking on it is obviously pointless.


I feel like 'theorizing' and 'critical thinking' are pretty generous descriptions of what seems from my perspective to be basically idle-minded spitballing. "Maybe it all changes, who knows? Not you." That's about the depth of your analysis on this one.

I challeged you on the merits and you came back with this nonsense rather than actually thinking critically and attempting to address my points.
Here are more legal notices regarding the Posts
Newz
Banned User
Posts: 42,328
And1: 2,551
Joined: Dec 05, 2005

Re: The Khris Middleton Thread 

Post#434 » by Newz » Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:19 pm

emunney wrote:
Newz wrote:
emunney wrote:I don't know that the sun's going to rise tomorrow, but unless I have a reason to expect it might not, I'm going to proceed with a reasonable assumption.

Do you see a reason to doubt any of the following?

1) There will still be many players on rookie and minimum contracts.
2) Teams will continue to actively spend the money they're required to spend on player salaries.
3) Teams will continue to evaluate players imperfectly.
4) There will continue to be a high level of competition for free agents.

These are the basic circumstances that result in overpaid veterans and the unworthy max contract. I don't think it's out of bounds to treat these as established realities until or unless there's a reason to believe they are not or will not continue to be.


Sure.

Nothing will change, everything will remain the exact same. Theorizing anything different or attempting to do some critical thinking on it is obviously pointless.


I feel like 'theorizing' and 'critical thinking' are pretty generous descriptions of what seems from my perspective to be basically idle-minded spitballing. "Maybe it all changes, who knows? Not you." That's about the depth of your analysis on this one.

I challeged you on the merits and you came back with this nonsense rather than actually thinking critically and attempting to address my points.


I agree that probably the most logical outcome of a much larger cap is that things stay the same but the numbers just get bigger. I already laid out most of the reasons why I think that things could change. Just because I didn't repeat them in yet another response doesn't mean that what I said was nonsense.

I think there is a chance owners could scale back spending on non-superstar players that are still very good, second/third tier stars... whatever you want to call them... because making a $120 million dollar blunder is even more brutal than making a $60 million dollar blunder. Maybe that just won't matter to owners though since they have more revenue coming in.

I also think the numbers being expanded more give teams an opportunity to negotiate more and try to set up tiers to pay players in as opposed to just giving max deals to guys. Before a team might approach giving a guy like Rudy Gay the max because the $2-$3 million dollar savings it would have given them to not give him the max and pay him more around what he's actually worth wasn't that big of a savings. But in this landscape that $2-$3 million could expand to even more money.

Non-superstar players may also be willing to accept less than the max now in order to end up in situations that they are more comfortable with. If the max is around the average of something like $30 million a year, then I could see some guys accepting something like $22-$25 million a year in order to help out their teams cap situation as opposed to accepting $12-$13 million as opposed to the max when it was something like $17 million.

You also have to factor in that CBA negotiations could open back up in 2017 and changes could come then... although not many significant changes were made last time around.

Return to Milwaukee Bucks