ESPN Futures Ranking (Bucks 26th)

[paulpressey25]

I like our situation a lot better than a two spot increase from last year.

Insider article.


http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... fresh=true

After a league-worst 15-67 record in 2013-14, the Bucks have moved up two spots in the Future Power Rankings. The easiest explanation is that the darkest hour has already passed in Milwaukee. The disastrous season, plus the sale of the team from longtime owner Herb Kohl to a group led by Wes Edens and Marc Lasry, have allowed the Bucks to embrace a rebuilding path that should offer more upside than their years of aiming for a bottom-four spot in the playoffs.

There is talent on hand, enough for Milwaukee to rank 23rd in the players category. The highlight of 2013-14 was Greek rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo contributing far ahead of schedule and showing star potential. A frontcourt of Antetokounmpo, No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker and center Larry Sanders is an exciting building block, given the crucial caveat that Sanders can overcome the off-court issues that marred his 2013-14 season. The Bucks' backcourt remains a bigger question mark, but one they can address with future lottery picks. Milwaukee ranks a healthy sixth in the draft category.

Our panel's ranking of Bucks management improved from 28th to 24th, in part because of the ownership change. There are still questions about GM John Hammond, who has fared poorly in free agency, but he may have been responding to Kohl's desire to avoid the lottery. And as sketchy as new coach Jason Kidd's move from Brooklyn to Milwaukee was, Kidd demonstrated significant growth over the course of his first season on the sideline.

[ReasonablySober]

There are a number of teams ahead of Milwaukee's I wouldn't trade situations for.

[crkone]

Pretty fair to me. If the kids play a lot and show significant growth this season, and we get another lottery pick, I expect our rankings to take a big leap.

[Treebeard]

There are a number of teams ahead of Milwaukee's I wouldn't trade situations for.

Yup. Part of the rating may go to the unresolved replacement for the BC too....

[paulpressey25]

Heat are ranked 9th. I'd bet most Heat fans would swap rosters with us.

Have to think some opinions by voters not liking either Hammond or Kidd are also impacting this. Plus general non understanding of Giannis nationally.

[ReasonablySober]

There are a number of teams ahead of Milwaukee's I wouldn't trade situations for.

Yup. Part of the rating may go to the unresolved replacement for the BC too....

Here were our individual category rankings:

Players: 23rd
Management: 24th
Market: 30th
Draft: 6th
Money: 14th

[THE DINJ]

They're just being conservative. Jumping MKE to top-15 would be an astronomical change. I'm just glad to see them moving up.

[raferfenix]

How many teams have as exciting a base of young talent as Parker + Giannis?

If by future rankings they mean the next 3 years I get why they'd be down on us. But there are few teams I'd trade places with at this time when projecting 3-5 years out.

[LUKE23]

For the first time in a long time, I disagree with our ranking. If you're looking at 25 and under cores, which is pretty much 100% of what this ranking SHOULD be, I'd definitely put us top half of the league. I can't think of many young duos I'd trade Giannis/Parker for, and the quality of your top young players is really all that matters. If Sanders bounces back it shoots us up even more.

I mean, it should be based on contention. A team like Miami is at their ceiling given their roster. Wade is going nowhere but down from here on out. Bosh isn't getting better. They don't have any young players with star potential. Market is being weighed far too heavily here.

[Ron Swanson]

Yeah, if this were current power rankings, you could easily justify the 26th spot. But unless by "future" they only mean the next couple years, I'm amazed that they rank us so low.

How many other teams have two blue-chip prospects under the age of 20? Yeah, I get the "Milwaukee is the least desirable FA destination" angle, but now, with new ownership and a high profile HC, even that is slowly becoming less of an issue (still in the bottom 5 of the league though).

Unless the writer is just incredibly down on Parker and Giannis' chances of reaching an all-star level, I fail to understand the justification.

EDIT: Just saw that it's a list only for the next three seasons. Which explains why the Spurs are #1. Misleading title if you ask me. These aren't really "future" power rankings, they're current ones.

[Chapter29]

We wont be the 4th worst team in the league this year.

[M-C-G]

Meh, I don't need an ESPN analyst to tell me how much the future of this team has improved over the last year.

Beyond the elements they ranked in the story, the fan base is starting to wake up...Couple that with a pretty high level of confidence we are going to get a new arena and the future is pretty bright.

I think what is scary is how low we really were the last 10 something years...I mean these scores only go 1-30, but to accurately compare let's say the Heat from 4 or 5 years ago, against the Bucks after they dished out the Gooden and Salmon contracts you would have needed a 1,000 point scale to capture the true difference.

[CanadaBucks]

Could someone just post the total rating for the following teams?
I am an Outsider but curious to see how teams that I think are in similar 3 year situations rank.


Orlando
Boston
Utah
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Minnesota

Thanks

[LUKE23]

Trying to look at this objectively. To me, Anthony Davis + whoever is the best 25U duo in the NBA. Durant and Westbrook are still 25 and under (Durant turns 26 in September), so they are the top duo until that date.

Taking those out of the equation, if you're factoring in ceiling, I think Giannis/Parker are next in line for the discussion. I still maintain Giannis is our highest ceiling guy, not Parker, and if Parker is your second highest ceiling player, that's a damn great combination.

So we have:

OKC
NOH

As unarguably better, at least to me.

Comparable or debatable teams:

CHI: If Rose bounces back, they are ahead of us. I like all of McDermott, Butler, Mirotic, and Snell as strong complimentary pieces, but it all depends on Rose.

WAS: Best backcourt in league potential with Wall/Beal, so they have to be ranked highly, and comparable to or better than ours.

PHI: probably the highest ceiling outside of OKC/NOH. Tons of risk but if Noel and Embiid both hit, this team has best defense in the league potential.

UTA: most of this depends on Exum, still like Favors a lot but he's been in the league a while. I'd take our core over Utah's though.

MIN: I'd take ours, they have a lot of young depth, but after Wiggins, I don't think they have anyone close to Giannis or Parker.

ORL: again, like the depth here, but don't see a duo comparable to Giannis/Parker. I hated the Gordon pick at #4 as well. Definitely take our cores over theirs.

PHO: Solid depth, epsecially if they get Bledsoe, but I don't see any of Len, Warren, Ennis, Goodwin, Brown, or the Morris twins making an all-star game. If Bledsoe leaves, this core is pretty blah in terms of star potential.

BOS: Love Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger are solid, and I think Young has a place in this league. But again, don't see the immense ceiling with this core either.

POR: Batum/Lillard/McCollum/Leonard is pretty damn solid. But I wouldn't trade Giannis/Parker for Lillard/Batum.

SAC: Stauskas/McLemore/Cousins. Don't like the complete lack of defense with this group.

TOR: Ross/DeRozan/Valanciunas/Hamilton/Caboclo/Noguiera. I really like this core quite a bit. I don't know if they have the star power to push where they were at last year, but really good balance and Caboclo's ceiling is through the roof.

[Treebeard]

Market is being weighed far too heavily here.

Agreed, but this is ESPN.

I swear their primary metric for everything is market size. How many minutes coverage did the Lakers get every day last season, even though they sucked swamp water, and will continue to do so for some time. ESPN is run by a bunch of "pander bears"

[Eeavers57]

Could someone just post the total rating for the following teams?
I am an Outsider but curious to see how teams that I think are in similar 3 year situations rank.


Orlando
Boston
Utah
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Minnesota

Thanks

Here you go. I put the article for each team in the spoiler. (Hope I did this right ).

Orlando-rank 23, score 39.69

Spoiler:

Two years into the Magic's post-Dwight Howard rebuild, it's still difficult to see the finish line. Orlando's 43 wins over the past two seasons are the league's lowest total, yet a series of lottery picks have yet to yield a surefire star talent. Victor Oladipo, the 2013 No. 2 overall pick, is the Magic's best bet. Orlando has now tripled down on athleticism and defense, adding Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton as 2014 lottery picks to Oladipo. Payton shined at the summer league hosted by the Magic, while Gordon disappointed.

The key question on draft night was who exactly would make outside shots for Orlando, because shooting is a weakness for all three lottery picks and holdover wing Maurice Harkless. The Magic answered that question in the short term by signing veteran stretch 4 Channing Frye, one of the league's premier floor spacers. Orlando's other moves in free agency were head-scratchers. The Magic paid $7.25 million to sign aging guards Ben Gordon and Luke Ridnour, who both rated below replacement level last season.

Orlando still has plenty of cap flexibility, and scores third in future draft value. However, our skepticism in coach Jacque Vaughn and GM Rob Hennigan is growing as the team's rebuild goes on. The Magic's score in management dropped from 16th a year ago to 21st.

Boston-rank 24, score 37.97

Spoiler:

The summer of 2014 appeared to be a pivotal one for the Celtics as they chose between accelerating their rebuild by parlaying draft picks and young talent into a star or extending their stay in the lottery. Boston chased Kevin Love but came up short, and with point guard Rajon Rondo now heading into the final season of his contract, a trade appears all but inevitable, and so too a lengthy rebuild.

Our panel certainly isn't sold on the Celtics' talent, ranking the team 29th in players. To improve that score, Boston will need recent draft picks Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger to take a major step in their development. Lottery pick Marcus Smart also figures to step into a larger role at point guard when -- not if -- Rondo is traded. Beyond that group, Boston is paying a lot of money to inconsistent wings Avery Bradley and Jeff Green and has young prospects with more questions than answers at this point.

The good news is only the Philadelphia 76ers rank higher in terms of future draft value. The first of three picks coming from the Brooklyn Nets fell to 17th and was used on Kentucky wing James Young. The next two, unprotected in 2016 and 2018 (plus the option to swap in 2017) could have far more upside given our panel's pessimism about the Nets' future. The Celtics have a third first-round pick from Cleveland in 2016 and can clear $30 million or more in cap space that summer.

Utah-rank 21, score 44.02

Spoiler:

The Jazz ranked No. 14 in these rankings last year but dipped to No. 21 this season with essentially the same roster. What gives?

A couple things seem to be pressing for Utah. They had to overpay Gordon Hayward this summer, essentially stripping them of much of their cap room and cap flexibility.

The Hornets offered Hayward a crazy four-year, $62 million deal the Jazz had to match. Hayward's deal, combined with Derrick Favors' extension, means the Jazz are going to have make some tough decisions on Enes Kanter and Alec Burks. While they theoretically have cap space in the summer of 2015 and 2016, they won't have much wiggle room if they sign either or both players to a significant contract.

Second, while the Jazz's roster is intriguing, they've yet to add that go-to player who could be a star. Their roster feels like a collection of good second or third starters on a playoff team. That's why they are ranked No. 20 in roster despite so many young, promising players.

The Jazz thought they had a chance to bring home a franchise player in one of the best drafts of the past decade. But when they fell to fifth in the lottery, the three players they most coveted -- Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid -- were all out of the picture. Still, there's hope that Dante Exum could be that player. He has a very high ceiling and has unique size and skill for his position. But he was one of the youngest and least experienced players in the draft and likely it will be a couple of years before he has a positive impact on the Jazz's win-loss record.

The Jazz's other three scores in market, management and draft stayed about the same. Everyone knows Utah isn't a top-flight free-agent destination. Management, now led by GM Dennis Lindsey and new head coach Quin Synder, has been making good decisions, but they have not distinguished themselves yet. As for the draft, the Jazz should be looking at a couple of more lottery picks in the next few years plus another first-round pick from the Warriors -- which is why they rank fourth in the draft category.

While the Jazz no longer have the same sunny forecast they did several Future Power Rankings ago, if the rankings window was five years instead of three, their future would be much brighter.

Philly-rank 19, score 45.06

Spoiler:

There's nothing quite like a 26-game losing streak to inspire hope for the future. Alas, this is the NBA and the 76ers are trending upward even though everything seemed so down. The Sixers epically dreadful bid for the No. 1 pick didn't work out as planned, but they still ended up with Joel Embiid, easily the most promising big man in the draft. Rookie general manager Sam Hinkie also hoarded every second-round draft pick until the year 2099* and nabbed Croatian standout Dario Saric with the 12th pick even though he likely won't hit stateside for a couple years.

Between Rookie of the Year (by default) Michael Carter-Williams, Embiid, Saric and Nerlens Noel, who is returning after missing last season with a torn ACL, the Sixers have as much promising young talent as any team in the league. But they're not likely to realize their full potential until 2017 at the earliest and the rest of the roster is embarrassingly bad. Hence, despite the upside, we're slotting their player category tied for 25th along with Orlando and New York.

Elsewhere, management led by Hinkie and coach Brett Brown appears to be progressive, but unproven. The city of Philadelphia isn't a top draw, but it's a fairly large market waiting to be tapped. The Sixers are trying to be the team of the future, but the target is just so far away at this point that we can't justify a higher ranking. Sit tight, Philly fans. This is going to be a long, bumpy ride.

Phoenix- rank 12, score 51.55

Spoiler:

It's time to eat some crow. Last year, I -- and the rest of our panel -- blasted the Suns, ranking them No. 27 in our Future Power Rankings. The only thing we really liked about them was their potentially high draft position and their warm, Arizona market. What a difference a year makes.

After our rankings, the Suns went on to move center Marcin Gortat (one of their best two players) for a broken Emeka Okafor and still managed to nearly steal a playoff spot in the loaded Western Conference. It turned out Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe had career years. Gerald Green also had the best year of his career. Ditto for Markieff Morris and Marcus Morris. And Channing Frye basically made the comeback of the year.

All of that led us to double the Suns' score on their roster from 20 to 41. That score might be even higher if the Suns had managed to lock up Bledsoe to a long-term contract this summer. If he bolts the desert next year, that number will take a hit. We also increased the Suns' management score (we're big Jeff Hornacek fans) and still give them pretty high marks for the draft thanks to future picks they own from both the Lakers and Wolves.

While the Suns aren't necessarily contenders in the West, they aren't the bottom-dwellers we thought they would be. But the biggest question in my mind then is: Have they gone from underrated to overrated? I wouldn't be shocked to see the Suns settle into the late teens or early 20s next year.

Minnesota-rank 27, score 36.06

Spoiler:

It was an eventful summer for the Wolves, as they once again hit the reset button on their franchise by trading Kevin Love, and figure to extend their playoff drought for at least two more seasons (as the old joke goes, the last time the Wolves made the playoffs, Latrell Sprewell could afford to feed his family).

That choice was inevitable, because Love would certainly have departed at season's end through free agency, leaving the Wolves empty-handed. Despite knowing this eventuality, Minnesota management (led by coach/GM Flip Saunders) made some curious decisions, such as signing veteran guard Mo Williams and opting to take Thad Young via trade instead of receiving draft considerations.

And yet, the Wolves have a lot to look forward to in young talent. They got a nice haul in extracting the past two No. 1 overall picks in Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Bennett, and drafting Zach LaVine 13th overall was a steal. Gorgui Dieng, another 2013 first-rounder, finished the season strong and has parlayed that momentum into a terrific showing at the FIBA Basketball World Cup.

But Minnesota will likely never be seen as a place players clamor to be, and the curious comments of owner Glen Taylor following the Love trade highlight some of the issues facing the Wolves from a management perspective.

[CanadaBucks]

Could someone just post the total rating for the following teams?
I am an Outsider but curious to see how teams that I think are in similar 3 year situations rank.


Orlando
Boston
Utah
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Minnesota

Thanks

Here you go. I put the article for each team in the spoiler. (Hope I did this right ).


Perfect, thanks.....I don't really get their scoring system but then it doesn't really matter anyway.

[Buckrageous]

And as sketchy as new coach Jason Kidd's move from Brooklyn to Milwaukee was,

WTF was so "sketchy" about it? Kidd's agent contacted the Bucks. The Bucks asked permission to speak with him about a coaching job. Brooklyn granted that request. Milwaukee gives compensation to Brooklyn. Seems pretty straight forward and unsketchy to me. I know, I know, Larry Drew was fired on Monday instead of Friday, the humanity of it all. I realize Im a little off topic but this crap drives me crazy.

Out of curiosity, Where do they rank Atlanta's front office?

[fam3381]

"The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons."

In that context I don't think the Bucks are necessarily *too* undervalued (whether you'd prefer others' roster situations is a different question IMO), though Philly's 19th ranking makes 0 sense in the context of success over the next three years. They'll be horrendous next year and probably satisfied to be mediocre by 16/17.

[emunney]

This must be a pre-Millsap article.