Championship in 2018, what's the big plan?

[ampd]

Hammond's 11 year plan is finally coming together. Have to appreciate the job security of mapping yourself out 5 more years

[DutchManDanFan]

Spoiler:

I don't think the Bucks are close enough to have a plan at least not in a specific targeted player kind of way. You have to even make an assumption or two about Giannis and Parker to cement 2 positions to build around. But in the present you have to know the next draft seems to be a big man draft and you have to see that with Parker, Giannis, Henson, Sanders, our develop-able talent lies in the front court. Its early to say the draft isn't likely to offer real help in the back-court as undoubtedly others will emerge over the course of the season beyond Mudiay, but I think that puts some further emphasis on what you'd like to see the Bucks target with in-season trades.

Young PG/SGs need apply. Maybe those deals aren't out there either but whatever the Bucks have in assets I'd like top see go toward acquiring that type of player if any move is made at all. While you can win with PGs of all types the Bucks have a couple of bigs that fit that athletic mold that need a little help creating their offense, I'd like to see more of a floor general then a scorer there personally.

So I think my plan is to put a plan off for this season. And simply be opportunistic. If a possible building block type young wing player becomes available and some combination of a Knight + other assets can get the job done I'd probably make a move like that without to much debate about relative value. Aside from that I don't see where you can go right now, because you don't want Vets to improve the win total artificially until the others are truly ready.

My point is, if you have a plan like I put here, every move you consider should be fitting for the plan. For exemple: Offer Knight a lucrative contract, but only for 2 years (24/2) this summer (make sure he'll expires after 16/17). Then he's an asset for the trade deadline in 2017. Together with the '15 & '16 rookies, a future 1st and another expiring that should be interesting for a team with an expensive PG who should consider a rebuild.

But of course you have to be able to adjust the plan if Giannis & Jabari are not developing the way we expect them. Then the 2015 rookie will be part of the new plan, with the chance for a ring moving a year or two forward. But then you're talking about a whole different team, probably without Sanders and maybe without Giannis or Jabari.

[Matches Malone]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0HgEbwfNxk&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[skones]

He's only 23 and is near elite in terms of 3 point shooting, plus he's RFA. Obviously it depends on the offer, but the Bucks cap is clear two years from now (only $21.7M committed not counting draft picks). He's the type of players we should be looking to keep.

He's going to be a guy, with a good season, that is going to cost Milwaukee 7.5 to 9 million a season, and that's not something I'm willing to lock myself into. There are a lot of guys in the NBA who can hit the three ball, and when it comes to replacing him in that role, it can be done at a much lower cost. Guys who are signed in that 6.5-9 million dollar range aren't tradeable in today's league for that exact reason. In order to deserve that type of deal, he would have to demonstrate himself as a DEFINITE long term solution at the shooting guard position, and to be honest, I think he's going to be a liability defensively in that role.

The following is a list of guys in that same salary range:
Jeff Green
Avery Bradley
Marcus Thornton
Brandon Bass
Jeff Teague
Paul Millsap
Kyle Korver
Jarrett Jack
Gerald Henderson
Marvin williams
Lance Stephenson
Tj Gibson
Pau Gasol
Anderson Varejao
Monta Ellis
Javale McGee
Danilo Gallinari
Arron Afflalo
Wilson Chandler
Brandon Jennings
Trevor Ariza
George Hill
JJ Redick
Steve Nash
Jordan Hill
Tayshaun Prince
Mike Conley
Luol Deng
Ersan Ilyasova
Kevin Martin
Thaddeus Young
Ryan Anderson
Jose Calderon
JR Smith
Kendrick Perkins
Al Harrington
Glen Davis
Channing Frye
Isaiah Thomas
Wes Matthews
Jason Thompson
Carl Landry
Boris Diaw
Tiago Splitter
Patrick Patterson
Chuck Hayes
Greivis Vasquez
Amir Johnson
Landry Fields
Andray Blatche

That's not a flattering list, and the idea here is to maintain as much flexibility as you possibly can, so when the time comes and you know what you actually have in Giannis and Parker, you can adjust accordingly. Signing Khris Middleton to a 4 year deal worth 30-36 million dollars isn't going to help you in that regard. Like I said, his free agency comes at a bad time with regards to where this team stands developmentally. One year later and you might have a different ball game, but that's just not the reality here.

[LUKE23]

He's not a liability defensively at either SG or SF. I don't think he gets 9M per year either. Maybe 7M. You just simply don't do Pachulia/Mayo/Bayless type deals and you still have all the flexibility you desire a year from this summer to do whatever you'd like. He's a great fit with our long-term picture.

[skones]

He's not a liability defensively at either SG or SF. I don't think he gets 9M per year either. Maybe 7M. You just simply don't do Pachulia/Mayo/Bayless type deals and you still have all the flexibility you desire a year from this summer to do whatever you'd like. He's a great fit with our long-term picture.

I think it's an unwise assumption to dismiss him being a liability on defense at the shooting guard position. He hasn't spent enough time there at that end of the floor for anyone to draw a definitive conclusion about his performance there. I think shooting guards end up being too much for him to handle laterally. Certain small forwards are for him at that position and I think that only becomes magnified at the two.

[LUKE23]

His defense at SG does not preclude us from signing him, even if you don't think he'll be a lock down guy there. He's good enough, and both Giannis and Sanders project to be top notch at that end. I am assuming we do something at PG beyond what we have as well. Middleton's job is shoot/score efficiently at a relatively high clip, and provide non-sieve defense. He's also not a ball dominator, which is what we will want as Parker and Giannis develop into our two highest usage guys in future years. Knight is the guy you let walk. Re-up Middleton. Henson is the tougher one but I'd have his name out there to see the return. We have slightly more time with him.

[SkilesTheLimit]

Hammond has to look at the Knight/Jennings trade as a wash and view Middleton as the "get" in that deal. He was the throw-in player at the time and he will end up being the best of the 3.

He has usually been good about correcting his mistakes and a year plus of seeing Knight up close (with the keen PG eye of Kidd) should be more than enough to know that Knight views himself as a prime time PG but is no more than a combo G/6th man type.

[machu46]

Hammond has to look at the Knight/Jennings trade as a wash and view Middleton as the "get" in that deal. He was the throw-in player at the time and he will end up being the best of the 3.

He has usually been good about correcting his mistakes and a year plus of seeing Knight up close (with the keen PG eye of Kidd) should be more than enough to know that Knight views himself as a prime time PG but is no more than a combo G/6th man type.

Yeah, it doesn't sound like we're going to re-sign Knight before the deadline, so we should have a pretty good idea of if he can work out with Kidd here by the time we need to start concerning ourselves with matching contracts. Could very well turn into a sign-and-trade situation.

Middleton I believe we will keep unless the wheels fall off this year or something.

[ampd]

He's going to be a guy, with a good season, that is going to cost Milwaukee 7.5 to 9 million a season

The idea that our 23 year old PG having a good season is bad because we'd then retain him seems insane to me. Unless you mean a "good" season where he was really bad, in which case its just a strange way to formulate a statement like that.

[skones]

He's going to be a guy, with a good season, that is going to cost Milwaukee 7.5 to 9 million a season

The idea that our 23 year old PG having a good season is bad because we'd then retain him seems insane to me. Unless you mean a "good" season where he was really bad, in which case its just a strange way to formulate a statement like that.

Knight has nothing to do with what I'm talking about......

[ampd]

He's going to be a guy, with a good season, that is going to cost Milwaukee 7.5 to 9 million a season

The idea that our 23 year old PG having a good season is bad because we'd then retain him seems insane to me. Unless you mean a "good" season where he was really bad, in which case its just a strange way to formulate a statement like that.

Knight has nothing to do with what I'm talking about......

Ah, Middleton.

The idea that our 23 year old SG having a good season is bad because we'd keep him also seems insane to me

[skones]

The idea that our 23 year old PG having a good season is bad because we'd then retain him seems insane to me. Unless you mean a "good" season where he was really bad, in which case its just a strange way to formulate a statement like that.

Knight has nothing to do with what I'm talking about......

Ah, Middleton.

The idea that our 23 year old SG having a good season is bad because we'd keep him also seems insane to me

You're missing the point.

[Bernman]

The plan is to continue to collect as many young assets as possible and see what sticks.

Well, this is not a plan for a Championship. It certainly isn't going to lead to the ultimate goal.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPFg8LXs5_M[/youtube]

It all depends on what quality stars Giannis and Parker are, who else we acquire asset-wise thru trades, and subsequent drafts.

We should have a top 5-10 pick in next draft, which is loaded with centers. So we could easily see Towns, Okafor, Turner, Portis, Cauley-Stein, etc. added to make a big 3.

The point guard can come in the form of a trade, and doesn't need to be a world beater. He just needs to run the team well ala Dennis Schroeder might. Hawks' fans seem willing to part with him and maybe another lotto protected 1st, for the Henson/Knight/2nd package.

All those assets/1st rd picks add up. You get around 3 in one draft, just about regardless of where they are, and historically odds are you've picked up a future core player with normal talent evaluation. Quality is beneficial, as is significant quality.

Then you've got heaps of youngish talent to grow with the next few years. Hopefully you grow into a championship. That is the primary plan.

Chris Paul is not even a secondary or tertiary plan. You want one in the form of vets returning that's more reliable to maybe put us over the top for a championship?

First, you could use a couple future first round picks we won't need as much anymore and project to be outside of lotto, an expiring like Ersan is next year, and a couple others we've collected, for a shot at an impact vet around the level of Joe Johnson (template/example, don't get fixated on that particular player) was in his prime. A move like that for a semi-name and win now guy in 2016 could really galvanize the fan base ahead of the 2017 arena deadline. Make them say to themselves this team I need to stay around to see.

That objective could be furthered by also flipping Sanders for another quality go-to offensive player because many teams can use a rim protector OR if he's working out well for our purposes and we're on the cusp, we can move multiple of our top prospects (Parker + Giannis wouldn't be ones anymore) for an impact vet player somewhat similar to how the Cavs acquired Love w/ Wiggins-plus. Who those specific players we'd acquire now, I don't know. But that doesn't preclude it from being part of a plan. All we can have right now is an outline. The specifics of the end of the story can't be written until the beginning plays out.

BTW, Jabari and Giannis leaving, that's something we don't have to worry too much about. Jabari said he plans to be a career Buck and Giannis at least until he wins a championship. So if they are on 50-win teams that should be enough for them not to leave anyway.

[ampd]

Knight has nothing to do with what I'm talking about......

Ah, Middleton.

The idea that our 23 year old SG having a good season is bad because we'd keep him also seems insane to me

You're missing the point.

Nope.

There are lots of reasons why you might not want to sign a guy, but worrying about him having a good season is ridiculous. Obviously you don't want to overpay, but if one of your young guys has a legitimately GOOD season, not wanting to keep him because other players who make similar money are mostly not superstars is crazy.

I mean lets say he has a similar season to Klay Thompson's 3rd year - 17 ppg / .550 TS / 40% from 3, passable but not stellar defense.

You're not paying him $8m because Luol Deng makes $8m in that scenario?

That just doesn't make sense.

If what you're saying is he has a Jennings/Brandon Knight type season where there are big negatives to go along with the positives, like say 17ppg / .500 TS / 32% from 3, struggles to finish at the rim, then yeah, I can see why paying for unrealized potential for players without a superstar ceiling isn't a great idea. But then we aren't really talking about a GOOD season, we're talking about a season similar to Brandon Knight's last year.

[DutchManDanFan]

Is it possible to discuss Middleton's next salary in another thread?


Bernman, What you suggest is what most teams do for ages without any succes. Try to improve the team little by little and hope that with a good draft and smart trades it becomes a Championship team one day. I don´t buy that anymore. I can see a fun and 50+ win team. But a real contender? Nope.

I think it's far better to set a target year, make a big plan and go for it. The target year should be 2018. Giannis 5th year, Jabari 4th year, Sanders in the last year of his contract. Mayo and/or Middleton are nice players to have at SG, but others can fit the bill as well. Backups at all the positions are already in place. They could be better, but I don´t think it matters that much. What will matter is an experienced floor general at PG.
If you want to succeed you aim for the top. So go after CP3.

Some questions:
1. Do you agree this core with 3 extra years and Chris Paul can win it all?

The big if, of course, is the development of Giannis and Jabari. But if they don't become top 30 players (at least), than it doesn't matter anyway, because the Bucks won't compete in this decade.

2. Do you think it´s usefull to replace Sanders for a younger player? Will it make the team much better? It will take more years to develop, that´s for sure, so I say no.

3. Could this plan also work with other point guards? I guess so, so there is a plan B.

And of course we still have Plan C: hope and wait a little longer...

[Aaron It Out]

No offense, but are we really moving discussion of re-signing our young expiring prospect in our "plans" thread, in favor of talking about signing 34 year old Chris Paul and the free agent class of 2018?

2018 is getting way ahead of ourselves. We're going to have a lot of cap space in 2016 and a lot of guys we already have who will need to get paid before Chris Paul.

[skones]

Ah, Middleton.

The idea that our 23 year old SG having a good season is bad because we'd keep him also seems insane to me

You're missing the point.

Nope.

There are lots of reasons why you might not want to sign a guy, but worrying about him having a good season is ridiculous. Obviously you don't want to overpay, but if one of your young guys has a legitimately GOOD season, not wanting to keep him because other players who make similar money are mostly not superstars is crazy.

I mean lets say he has a similar season to Klay Thompson's 3rd year - 17 ppg / .550 TS / 40% from 3, passable but not stellar defense.

You're not paying him $8m because Luol Deng makes $8m in that scenario?

That just doesn't make sense.

If what you're saying is he has a Jennings/Brandon Knight type season where there are big negatives to go along with the positives, like say 17ppg / .500 TS / 32% from 3, struggles to finish at the rim, then yeah, I can see why paying for unrealized potential for players without a superstar ceiling isn't a great idea. But then we aren't really talking about a GOOD season, we're talking about a season similar to Brandon Knight's last year.

Yes.

In no place did I say I was worried about him having a good season. It's not a question of keeping a guy who has a good season. It's about being in the position to make a long term investment in a player as a supplementary piece. Ultimately, Middleton's not the type of player, as I said unless he makes a LARGE jump, worth investing that number of dollars into when your core of guys isn't completely set. You set your core before you start worrying about complementary pieces, and as I stated, Khris Middleton's free agency comes at a bad time in our developmental stage as a franchise. It's a waste of money to tie money into complementary players before we have a legitimate core. It's shocking to me that people haven't realized this after the Mo Williams, John Salmons, Ersan Ilyasovas, and OJ Mayos of the world.

The biggest issue here is Giannis. I don't think we'll fully know what he is after this season. I think we get a clearer picture in year three, whereas I think we'll have a good idea of what Parker's actually worth after year one. I don't think Middleton is, or ever will be a bonafide core piece, so he's not worth tying up money in.

[skones]

His defense at SG does not preclude us from signing him, even if you don't think he'll be a lock down guy there. He's good enough, and both Giannis and Sanders project to be top notch at that end. I am assuming we do something at PG beyond what we have as well. Middleton's job is shoot/score efficiently at a relatively high clip, and provide non-sieve defense. He's also not a ball dominator, which is what we will want as Parker and Giannis develop into our two highest usage guys in future years. Knight is the guy you let walk. Re-up Middleton. Henson is the tougher one but I'd have his name out there to see the return. We have slightly more time with him.

Again, you're making definitive statements about Middleton's defense at the shooting guard position when he just hasn't spent enough time there to warrant one. He's looked pretty bad during the preseason at the position, and the consistent foul trouble he's been in is an indicator of that (5.8 fouls per 36 minutes if anyone is counting). If he isn't a good defender, what he is is a specialist, and guys who are shooters and nothing more can be found off the scrap heap, they aren't worth spending 28-36 million on.

[LUKE23]

I couldn't really care less about foul stats in the preseason. And if we are counting preseason stats, his scoring production stats were very good. He certainly isn't a defensive sieve moving from SF to SG; it's not like there is a massive difference in the wing positions in today's NBA anyway. Positions are far more interchangeable now than they were a few years ago.