Michael Carter-Williams: PG of the future?

[BucksFanSD]

I didn't know MCW was seen as a guy who had maturity issues. He's a well-spoken leader and supports team basketball. He put his first two years' salary in a life-time trust. I see he had a shop lifting incident in college but that should be past him now. My main concern is if he can show up mentally for 48 minutes, 82 games a year. But I like his unique skills and he's a guy that doesn't need to pad box scores to show he's effective.

Are you confused with a different player?

No, I don't believe I am. Which part makes you think that?

[TroyD92]

I didn't know MCW was seen as a guy who had maturity issues. He's a well-spoken leader and supports team basketball. He put his first two years' salary in a life-time trust. I see he had a shop lifting incident in college but that should be past him now. My main concern is if he can show up mentally for 48 minutes, 82 games a year. But I like his unique skills and he's a guy that doesn't need to pad box scores to show he's effective.

Are you confused with a different player?

No, I don't believe I am. Which part makes you think that?

Those two.

[Jez2983]

I've been a little disappointed that the analytics guys haven't given us MCW shooting stats after five dribbles. I enjoyed those in the Brandon Knight era.

You're being deliberately obtuse. MCW is playing badly, and most people can see that. There's no need to quantify this with stats.

As far as I can see we have people who think he's rubbish, and then a minority who think he's playing poorly but are hoping for some improvement over the next 12 months to see him grow into the role he was evidently brought into play. I'm in the latter. There's noone foaming over the awesomemess of MCW as far as I've seen.

Unlike Knight, there will be no person disappointed if he's moved on if this is the level of play he maintains.

My point was not to expose MCW, but to lampoon the silliness of the BK attacks that relied on contrivances such as shooting efficiency after N dribbles. The partialization of Knight's statistical record, and the search for more and more far-fetched confirmation of a negative bias, got out of hand IMO. It would indeed be dumb to use the same tactics without this kind of animus toward a player, or without obvious competence to disprove.

MCW played a pretty good game last night, albeit with some bad ball-handling and passing lapses. I think this post-him-up strategy has some possibilities.

We talked about this with Sid's comment on Gooden taking a 3. In his time here, Knight seemed to hold the ball a long time then take a shot, rather than try to pass. That stat not only showed that he did that, but more than anyone else.

I've always seen any stat as trying to support an argument. In MCW's case, he looks bad and basically most of his individual stats show that. Team stats bafflingly seem comparable to Knights, so interesting to see how that plays out.

As for your thoughts on his game, agree, the post up option looks promising. He also is decent at attacking the hoop/getting to the line. Seems to get blocked a fair bit though. FT shooting seems better, defence good as previously noted. Indications of passing ability. There's stuff to work on, hopefully he gets it.

[cinematographer]

My point was not to expose MCW, but to lampoon the silliness of the BK attacks that relied on contrivances such as shooting efficiency after N dribbles.

So it's a contrivance to lampoon a player who made a poor decision no fewer than 145 times? Or, to put it another way, it's a contrivance to lampoon a player for making a poor decision at least ~20% of the time he shot the ball?

"Guys, we need to talk about Giannis. His running hook shots are just terrible. He's only hitting 33.33% of them."

-- An example of a contrivance, because Giannis has only shot three all season.

It would indeed be dumb to use the same tactics without this kind of animus toward a player, or without obvious competence to disprove

Milwaukee Bucks, with Brandon Knight ON:
103.1 ORtg
104.3 DRtg

Milwaukee Bucks, with Brandon Knight OFF, since the trade:
105.9 ORtg
98.8 DRtg

Milwaukee Bucks, with Michael Carter-Williams ON:
104.5 ORtg
102.6 DRtg

Milwaukee Bucks, with Michael Carter-Williams OFF, since the trade:
95.5 ORtg
109.7 DRtg

(Milwaukee Bucks, with Jerryd Bayless and John Henson ON, since the trade
84.2 ORtg
107.9 DRtg)

Phoenix Suns, with Brandon Knight ON:
101.9 ORtg
107.8 DRtg

Phoenix Suns, with Brandon Knight OFF:
96.7 ORtg
99.6 DRtg

Brandon Knight has a non-prior informed RAPM in the bottom ten percent of the league ( ). Brandon Knight has seen his RPM fall off the face of a cliff since the trade because guys who had combined for upwards of 5000 possessions with him haven't seen their play tail off, an RPM number even still buoyed from by the empty PPGz he put up here. But, hey, he had a PER of 18.6 in Milwaukee, so I guess he was obviously competent.

None of this is even to say MCW is the answer. Just that, to those with even an inkling of respect for intellectual rigor, Knight was not.

[verbalhologram]

MCW was in beast mode vs Chicago and I loved how he used his size time and time again to back down smaller guards.
I think he is definitely going to be our PG of the future.

[sidney lanier]

None of this is even to say MCW is the answer. Just that, to those with even an inkling of respect for intellectual rigor, Knight was not.

My inklings are all about statistical signficance, a necessary precondition to intellectual rigor.

[SirChurros]

I think MCW certainly has a lot more potential to be the PG of the future than Knight, or anyone else on the roster, did. It's simple and naive to pick apart his small sample size with the Bucks so far and then try to paint this as an accurate portrayal of what's to come moving forward.

We all know he struggles with his jumper, often has poor shot selection and turns it over too much. Regardless of those three things, he's a pretty solid facilitator, plays good defense and finishes strong at the rim. He may never become the PG of the future for this team, but it's far too early to make that claim. Give him a summer with Kidd and his teammates and then see what he does next season.

[cinematographer]

None of this is even to say MCW is the answer. Just that, to those with even an inkling of respect for intellectual rigor, Knight was not.

My inklings are all about statistical signficance, a necessary precondition to intellectual rigor.

There are only so many possessions in one game. There are only so many hands dealt. Bad shots, turnovers - hell, let's just start with a bad process - bleeds EV for the O, and puts the D in higher PPP situations. A player as ball dominant as Knight using no fewer than 20% of his shots to pound the rock to no effect? Yeah, it matters.

Contrast this with Michael Carter-Williams, who, for all of his shooting problems, is actually more efficient than Knight was at shots after 5 dribbles. His general eFG%/TS% are obviously inferior, but to MCWs credit, 65% of his shots are at the RA or in the paint. For all of Knight's athletic advantages, he only had 8.4 drives per 36 compared to MCW's 14.2 (!!!).

This gets at the heart of the issue with Knight. Here's a player -- tremendous on the catch and shoot while also having incredible pace -- willingly forgoing his areas of strength and instead electing to pound that rock and take those pull up 2s. A player who could not get out of his own way, bleeding the team's possessions of their value with his shot profile of wanton disregard for "good basketball" and not just playing to his own strengths but, more importantly, not playing to his weaknesses. MCW hasn't set the world on fire since arriving, but he's at least trying to maximize his impact by playing to his strengths, and the Bucks have been better with him. It is there I can have patience with a player. It is there I will not think the sky is falling if MCW gets a summer with Kidd and Dr Oppenheimer. Knight was addicted to bad basketball, and could not admit he had a problem, or even worse and even likelier, didn't know.

[SupremeHustle]

It's like reading a first draft of True Detective: Sports Edition.

[Badgerlander]

[sidney lanier]

None of this is even to say MCW is the answer. Just that, to those with even an inkling of respect for intellectual rigor, Knight was not.

My inklings are all about statistical signficance, a necessary precondition to intellectual rigor.

There are only so many possessions in one game. There are only so many hands dealt. Bad shots, turnovers - hell, let's just start with a bad process - bleeds EV for the O, and puts the D in higher PPP situations. A player as ball dominant as Knight using no fewer than 20% of his shots to pound the rock to no effect? Yeah, it matters.

Contrast this with Michael Carter-Williams, who, for all of his shooting problems, is actually more efficient than Knight was at shots after 5 dribbles. His general eFG%/TS% are obviously inferior, but to MCWs credit, 65% of his shots are at the RA or in the paint. For all of Knight's athletic advantages, he only had 8.4 drives per 36 compared to MCW's 14.2 (!!!).

This gets at the heart of the issue with Knight. Here's a player -- tremendous on the catch and shoot while also having incredible pace -- willingly forgoing his areas of strength and instead electing to pound that rock and take those pull up 2s. A player who could not get out of his own way, bleeding the team's possessions of their value with his shot profile of wanton disregard for "good basketball" and not just playing to his own strengths but, more importantly, not playing to his weaknesses. MCW hasn't set the world on fire since arriving, but he's at least trying to maximize his impact by playing to his strengths, and the Bucks have been better with him. It is there I can have patience with a player. It is there I will not think the sky is falling if MCW gets a summer with Kidd and Dr Oppenheimer. Knight was addicted to bad basketball, and could not admit he had a problem, or even worse and even likelier, didn't know.

I don't disagree with your MCW observations. Frequency of drives, though, I think you'll concede is kind of a context-sensitive stat. It's not as though there's some kind of reference possession with equivalent choices to drive, to stand still dribbling and thinking about things, or taking a jumper.

I still think the charges against Knight -- wanton disregard for good basketball, low IQ, bleeding possessions, being a bad basketball addict -- were trumped up and far from irrefutable. But he's gone now, and we can file out of the courtroom with our very different opinions intact.

[MiltownHawkeye]

It's like reading a first draft of True Detective: Sports Edition.

MCW's jumper is a flat circle.

[mattg]

A player who could not get out of his own way, bleeding the team's possessions of their value with his shot profile of wanton disregard for "good basketball" and not just playing to his own strengths but, more importantly, not playing to his weaknesses. MCW hasn't set the world on fire since arriving, but he's at least trying to maximize his impact by playing to his strengths, and the Bucks have been better with him.

How does this part not apply to MCW? Literally any jumpshot MCW takes is 'disregard for good basketball'. I'm just not sure how you can possibly think MCW is playing to his strengths, it's baffling at best, especially from a relatively smart poster such as yourself. The stunning lack of self awareness for what he is, and isn't, along with what he is actually effective at, and isn't, is the most damning thing about MCW. He'll play well one game, and then be so unbelievably bad the next 4 games that taking him out behind the shed and putting him down seems like the most humane option.

[FrieAaron]

A player who could not get out of his own way, bleeding the team's possessions of their value with his shot profile of wanton disregard for "good basketball" and not just playing to his own strengths but, more importantly, not playing to his weaknesses. MCW hasn't set the world on fire since arriving, but he's at least trying to maximize his impact by playing to his strengths, and the Bucks have been better with him.

How does this part not apply to MCW? Literally any jumpshot MCW takes is 'disregard for good basketball'. I'm just not sure how you can possibly think MCW is playing to his strengths, it's baffling at best, especially from a relatively smart poster such as yourself. The stunning lack of self awareness for what he is, and isn't, along with what he is actually effective at, and isn't, is the most damning thing about MCW. He'll play well one game, and then be so unbelievably bad the next 4 games that taking him out behind the shed and putting him down seems like the most humane option.

He also hasn't even finished his second season in the NBA yet so I imagine they're assuming he's going to shore up at least some of the areas he needs to. And he may be taking poor shots occasionally but the majority come at the rim where's he's much better and the jumpshots he does take seem to tend to be in the flow of the offense moreso than Knight's were. I have no idea if the numbers back that up or not, but at least the threes he's taking are usually wide open. That doesn't make them a good decision but it also doesn't mean he's necessarily thinking selfishly.

If a year and a half from now he hasn't shown improvement will I be happy with him at PG? Probably not, but considering how poorly he's played on half the time on offense since coming here I do find it slightly encouraging that not only has he been a net positive statistically, he also already has slightly lower usage and slightly higher assist ratio than Knight.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

I wil be able to completely forget about knight the moment we are able to trade mcw for any value whatsoever and/or draft a pg of some sort.

[cinematographer]

A player who could not get out of his own way, bleeding the team's possessions of their value with his shot profile of wanton disregard for "good basketball" and not just playing to his own strengths but, more importantly, not playing to his weaknesses. MCW hasn't set the world on fire since arriving, but he's at least trying to maximize his impact by playing to his strengths, and the Bucks have been better with him.

How does this part not apply to MCW? Literally any jumpshot MCW takes is 'disregard for good basketball'. I'm just not sure how you can possibly think MCW is playing to his strengths, it's baffling at best, especially from a relatively smart poster such as yourself. The stunning lack of self awareness for what he is, and isn't, along with what he is actually effective at, and isn't, is the most damning thing about MCW. He'll play well one game, and then be so unbelievably bad the next 4 games that taking him out behind the shed and putting him down seems like the most humane option.

More to the trade than just swapping one in for another and calling it a day, you know? Shot displacement and more efficient players taking the same shots.

And thanks for the kind words. I know MCW isn't posting the eFG and TS% we'd all like, and I do not think your characterization of his play is altogether unfair but he has little in the way of peer for getting into the lane/driving and that's a great base to build upon, should the gaps start getting filled in.

[emunney]

The difference between Knight in the beginning of the season and Knight before he was traded should be enough to have some hope for MCW's rehabilitation. Also he really does have some skill in the post. As he gets older and fills out, that's going to become more and more valuable.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

How does this part not apply to MCW? Literally any jumpshot MCW takes is 'disregard for good basketball'. I'm just not sure how you can possibly think MCW is playing to his strengths, it's baffling at best, especially from a relatively smart poster such as yourself. The stunning lack of self awareness for what he is, and isn't, along with what he is actually effective at, and isn't, is the most damning thing about MCW. He'll play well one game, and then be so unbelievably bad the next 4 games that taking him out behind the shed and putting him down seems like the most humane option.

More to the trade than just swapping one in for another and calling it a day, you know? Shot displacement and more efficient players taking the same shots.

except we did just swap one in for another. same position. same minutes. same usage. how can you argue we didn't?

and btw....all these on/ offs with mcw and knight you are posting here have more to do with the fall off of the bench and the evolution of who we were starting with knight initially and who it became. knights on/offs here were fine for several months once the starting rotation got settled and the bench quit playing out of their minds. lets not pretend there was still an issue with on/offs with knight by the time we traded him. he and the coaching staff had turned that all around simply by monkeying with the rotations.

[mattg]

A player who could not get out of his own way, bleeding the team's possessions of their value with his shot profile of wanton disregard for "good basketball" and not just playing to his own strengths but, more importantly, not playing to his weaknesses. MCW hasn't set the world on fire since arriving, but he's at least trying to maximize his impact by playing to his strengths, and the Bucks have been better with him.

How does this part not apply to MCW? Literally any jumpshot MCW takes is 'disregard for good basketball'. I'm just not sure how you can possibly think MCW is playing to his strengths, it's baffling at best, especially from a relatively smart poster such as yourself. The stunning lack of self awareness for what he is, and isn't, along with what he is actually effective at, and isn't, is the most damning thing about MCW. He'll play well one game, and then be so unbelievably bad the next 4 games that taking him out behind the shed and putting him down seems like the most humane option.

More to the trade than just swapping one in for another and calling it a day, you know? Shot displacement and more efficient players taking the same shots.

And thanks for the kind words. I know MCW isn't posting the eFG and TS% we'd all like, and I do not think your characterization of his play is altogether unfair but he has little in the way of peer for getting into the lane/driving and that's a great base to build upon, should the gaps start getting filled in.

MCW is sporting nearly the exact same usage as knight that he is mainly accruing by attempting shots, just like knight did. The only difference is that MCW is objectively one of the worst scorers in the entire nba which makes what he's doing unacceptable in my eyes. He's not running the offense better, or more effectively than knight did which I'm guessing you were implying with the shot displacement mention. Ball movement, spacing, and silly turnovers have been worse. Middleton and giannis are just playing far more minutes than they did previously.

[Badgerlander]

Aside from the alley oop to the top of the backboard MCWs TOs haven't been as wtf hilarious as Knights were. #Disappoint


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