Mid Season Temperature Check

[jakecronus8]

I'm also getting tired of selling these guys after a good stretch of basketball to Bucks and NBA haters only to get embarrassed. Sick and tired of being sick and tired.

[Treebeard]

I always come back to what Lowe said before last season when he predicted the Bucks would miss the playoffs. The crux of his reasoning was opposition not hitting nearly the number of threes that were expected, and the defense was propped up by something unsustainable. Teams would figure Milwaukee out.

If you're hoping for playoffs this spring you're gonna bank on the luck Milwaukee had over the first half of the season. Here's what should scare you:

November:
36.2% 3FG frequency, 2nd highest in the league
31.9% 3FG percentage against, best in the league

Bucks were allowing almost a league high number of threes, but teams were hitting a league worst.

December:
34.2% 3FG frequency, 5th highest in the league
37.0% 3FG percentage against, 19th in the NBA

January:
35.5% 3FG frequency, 4th highest in the league
40.9% 3FG percentage against, 29th in the league

The Bucks are getting smoked and it's getting worse.

What do you think is more likely, 3FG% against gets worse, or the numbers revert closer to November?

I don't think there's any reason to believe the Bucks don't continue to hover around the bottom of the league in these rankings. The book's been out on how to beat this defense for a while.

And there hasn't been an apparent change to how that defense is run.... The bookend to Green's line about the Bucks last second play calling.

[Max Green]

30-36 wins.

Would be a terrible few months on here if that's the case.

As the way things stand now unfortunately that may be the case. I think we will have to end up moving Brogdon back to the bench at some point if we want to win. It seems like Monroe's play has dropped since Brogdon got the start since they were so good together and now they're barely on the floor at the same time.

[Bernman]

As the way things stand now unfortunately that may be the case. I think we will have to end up moving Brogdon back to the bench at some point if we want to win. It seems like Monroe's play has dropped since Brogdon got the start since they were so good together and now they're barely on the floor at the same time.

In the 9 games since Brogdon has started, Monroe has averaged 15 ppg (52% fg), 8 rebs, 2.5 assists in 27 mpg. He's been a discernibly better scorer. All that's changed for the worse, is his ft shooting, which obviously has nothing to do with Brogdon, and there's been a small dip in assist rate, which does. But overall he's playing at the same level. The team just has dropped off because of the defensive scheme, allowing way too many easy 3's. And that has little to do with him as an interior defender. That's the problem of the perimeter defenders. He's holding his own inside. His all-around game has still been solid. I think you're conflating the team performance with his own. When you lose, to some almost everything is a problem. And when you win, the opposite is the case.

If you want to have full Monrogdon, which we're still getting plenty of, the move would be putting Monroe back into the starting lineup, because our best center. Having arguably your 2nd and 3rd best players right now coming off the bench is overkill to get max touches for your best, who can't do it alone. But hopefully starting Henson is an investment for an impending trade. Then maybe the guy returning starts instead of Monroe. You'd just be taking a minor hit off reduced Monrogdon. The new C could get quick hooks. That's what happening usually now.

[Prince12]

I'm also getting tired of selling these guys after a good stretch of basketball to Bucks and NBA haters only to get embarrassed. Sick and tired of being sick and tired.

This is me. First half of that Knicks ESPN game my mates were texting me going I hate to say it but you are right these guys are awesome to watch. By the end of the night it was back to the same **** bucks texts I was getting.

I just need to stop getting my hopes up. If we somehow win tomorrow I'll get ahead of myself though there is no doubt.

[bigkurty]

I'm also getting tired of selling these guys after a good stretch of basketball to Bucks and NBA haters only to get embarrassed. Sick and tired of being sick and tired.

[vinnymate]

Everything about this season points to .500 team. Lack to ability to close out games (predictable plays/executions down the stretch) and inconsistency (crap rotations/bad system).

I think with a proper coach and system, we have the talent to be a 48-50 win team (without Middleton). But Kidd will cost us about 10 wins.

Still there is some optimism, with Middleton being back healthy eventually and Thon developing into a NBA level player. But with our coach/system & deadweight cap space there going to be a cap on far we can progress to a championship level team.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

I always come back to what Lowe said before last season when he predicted the Bucks would miss the playoffs. The crux of his reasoning was opposition not hitting nearly the number of threes that were expected, and the defense was propped up by something unsustainable. Teams would figure Milwaukee out.

If you're hoping for playoffs this spring you're gonna bank on the luck Milwaukee had over the first half of the season. Here's what should scare you:

November:
36.2% 3FG frequency, 2nd highest in the league
31.9% 3FG percentage against, best in the league

Bucks were allowing almost a league high number of threes, but teams were hitting a league worst.

December:
34.2% 3FG frequency, 5th highest in the league
37.0% 3FG percentage against, 19th in the NBA

January:
35.5% 3FG frequency, 4th highest in the league
40.9% 3FG percentage against, 29th in the league

The Bucks are getting smoked and it's getting worse.

What do you think is more likely, 3FG% against gets worse, or the numbers revert closer to November?

I don't think there's any reason to believe the Bucks don't continue to hover around the bottom of the league in these rankings. The book's been out on how to beat this defense for a while.

Isn't it the same defense they had the last 3 years? Why didn't teams just slaughter them all season? I don't think its a great defense or sustainable but it does seem to work when the team gives full effort. We seem to do well against teams that shoot the 3 well (Warriors, Spurs, Cavs) and really the only explanations are luck and effort. Add in a defensive upgrade with Middleton and at C, I think it could become a passable defense.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

I wouldn't be shocked if we go 3-7 in the next 10.

Me neither but I think we could just as easily go 7-3. I added pluses for games I think we have an above 50% shot of winning and I think we will snag an upset or 2 from the other games. We just need to stick around the .500 mark in January and go something like 8-3 or 9-2 in February, which isnt that unrealistic looking at our schedule. If we are 5 games over .500 going into March we will be in great shape and looking at a 5 seed.

@Hou
@Orl+
@Mia+
Hou
Phi+
@Tor
@Bos
UTA
@PHX+
Mia+

[Beorn]

IIRC I predicted 33 wins, Brog emerged, Giannis, Jabarles and Monroe are better than expected, so I put my number at 38 right now, we'll be baad for a monrth or 2, but at the end when teams ouright tank we'll make some wins

[HKPackFan]

I want whatever the 3 people who voted 50+ wins are having. Because that must be some good stuff making life seem pretty perfect.

[humanrefutation]

A young team on the precipice of contention. We'll finish with 39-43 wins. Competitive first round series, with a win if everything works out before getting shellacked in the second round by Cleveland. Then, we'll add Mids next year, add an offseason of development for Parker, Giannis, Brodgon, and Thon, and that 39-43 number will jump to 47-50. In 2018-19, just as we're moving into the Herb Kohl Arena, we'll be a 55-60 win team competing for a title.

We're right on schedule.

[skones]

Was 37-41 at the start of the season and last round of votes. Bumped to 42-49 this go round.

[ReasonablySober]

Interesting stuff on an ESPN Milwaukee article about the defense:

Milwaukee’s aggressive, help-heavy defense coordinated by assistant coach Sean Sweeney, and heavily influenced by Wisconsin legend Dick Bennett’s Pack Line philosophies, forces teams to take their time getting what they want offensively. For a third straight year, according to Inpredictable Stats, the Bucks are forcing opponents into the league’s longest time of possession. On average, opponent’s possessions last 15.4 seconds. After dead balls, that number rises to 17.9.

The defense’s impact can be seen on the threes that Kidd wants his players to limit as well. 11 percent of opponent’s 3-point attempts come during the final four seconds of the 24-second shot clock, tops in the NBA.

Against the Bucks, opponents might get what they want, but they won’t get it when they want it. It will be on the Bucks’ time.

[crkone]

Interesting stuff on an ESPN Milwaukee article about the defense:

Milwaukee’s aggressive, help-heavy defense coordinated by assistant coach Sean Sweeney, and heavily influenced by Wisconsin legend Dick Bennett’s Pack Line philosophies, forces teams to take their time getting what they want offensively. For a third straight year, according to Inpredictable Stats, the Bucks are forcing opponents into the league’s longest time of possession. On average, opponent’s possessions last 15.4 seconds. After dead balls, that number rises to 17.9.

The defense’s impact can be seen on the threes that Kidd wants his players to limit as well. 11 percent of opponent’s 3-point attempts come during the final four seconds of the 24-second shot clock, tops in the NBA.

Against the Bucks, opponents might get what they want, but they won’t get it when they want it. It will be on the Bucks’ time.

I hinted at this a couple weeks ago. Nice to know Eric reads my posts.

[Prince12]

Interesting, we sure are giving up a lot of points despite working super hard defensively. If your going to give up a wide open three I dunno if it's worth running around like headless chooks for the 20 seconds prior.

[blazza18]

Yea, seems like a great strategy to make your own players tired sooner.

[jakecronus8]

Interesting, we sure are giving up a lot of points despite working super hard defensively. If your going to give up a wide open three I dunno if it's worth running around like headless chooks for the 20 seconds prior.

Exactly. Makes it even worse. Not only are you going to get an open three, but we're going to expend maximum energy in allowing you to have it.

[AussieBuck]

You'd think that we'd be better at protecting leads with that much clock required to get a good look against us.

[Prince12]

You'd think that we'd be better at protecting leads with that much clock required to get a good look against us.

I dunno if it's a stat even tracked but I'd like to know how many points a game we average in the last 6 minutes of the 4th in close games because it feels like it would be nasty viewing.