PG Thread (Indiana) - Point Giannis: A tale in tank killing

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

I'm on the fence with tanking this year. At this point I'd be happy with the 7th seed or higher or the 7th pick or higher (preferably top 5 if we are missing the playoffs). The only thing that would suck would be missing the playoffs and still drafting 8th or lower.

As far as tanking, we can't really compare tanking today to tanking in the 70's or 80's. Kareem, Magic, Bird, Jordan, etc all played multiple years of college ball. Today the top of the draft is a bit more of an unknown with all the one and dones. Obviously I'd still prefer a top 5 pick but it's just not an apples to apples comparison between the generations.

Bucks would have to lose almost every game but 5 to get into the top 5 at this point. I think Giannis alone will win us that many games.

This is a 'deep' draft so 8-10 will probably get us one of the second tier point guards. And with the unknown one and dones we can maybe snag a guy who fell a bit due to youth. Yeah I prefer a top 5 pick but you can still snag a good pg at 9 this year. Just need to get lucky. Also the 9 spot still gives you a 10% chance at moving up in the lottery.

[Swan Vox]

"Back in my day there was no tanking. Men were men and athletes were gladiators who'd rather die than lose. Those teams I loved as a child or youth didn't lose because they tanked. They fought tooth and nail but alas they didn't have the ability. But these kids these days with their cyborgmetric stats and lack of honor, well they want to tank. Tanking is for losers!"

No. Losing is for losers. Complacency is for losers. Trying to improve at all cost is what winners do. Even if that means losing.

Your belief of what used to be is a lie. Teams have always tanked. Players have always mailed it in and if that were not the case there would be no Charlie Hustle... cuz that would have been par for the course and an unnecessary nickname. Plus whats the difference between tanking and sucking? You write as if we want a kidd to tell giannis to throw the game. That's not tanking... that's illegal.

So explain to me why we should throw away a 2.5 (30% to 12%) times better chance to add a player who coupled with giannis mids thon brogs could make this team a contender. It's an important piece. Why hamstring yourself?

Is it to keep telly who is a $10 mil backup for 2.4 more years? Is it to keep Snell beas terry for 30 more games? Is it to keep Monroe for likely 30 more games? Is it to watch hawes warm a bench for 30 more games? Not having those things that play little to no part in this teams future is tanking.

So to NOT TANK we risk getting nothing for monroe snell beas terry hawes hibbert beyond this year and taking an 18% less chance of adding someone impactful to our core?

If there isn't a comet heading towards earth this instant that will hit us and blink life out of existence in june I really dont see why we should not tank... aka trade role players with no future contract on our squad.

No one plays for the 9 seed. No one plays for the 7 seed and an early exit. Why do you see this manly old honor merit to that?

Unfortunately Kidd in a delly henson/plums centric archaic offense has tank driven us to this place. If the teams 30-23 this wouldn't be a thing. Tanks only a thing because WE ALREADY SUCK!!!

But like a light switch the ultimate tank driver changes to point giannis and pnr pnp stretch thon and shucks it works... full steam ahead to that 7 seed and early exit. Hurray for mediocrity!!! Mediocrity IS FOR LOSERS!

And you would rather have a savant gm than tank... wow... really? That's great... its also not reality. So unless you can get to led and tell them the savant that will change our stars as gm... and they hire him or her... well until then our best option is still tank... and even that savant would appreciate open cap and a high pick to work with.

This. Right here. It's almost a misnomer to label this strategy as tanking. What it should be called is smart long-term asset management. In a league like the NBA where a small handful of players make an enormous impact, you need to be able to acquire your core of those individuals. Until you have that established, everything else is window dressing. No one advocates this strategy most of the time until it already looks like a lost season. It's the same concept in baseball as "buyers" & "sellers". You have to know when the appropriate time to do either is. The Bucks are still most definitely in position to be sellers.

[HKPackFan]

I would love to get in the playoffs, but I'm terrified that would give kidd job security.

[VooDoo7]

I would love to get in the playoffs, but I'm terrified that would give kidd job security.

Probably. Which is why I totally wanna miss the playoffs.

I'm willing to bet we make it tho.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

There is a loose correlation between drafting higher and getting better players

It's really not that loose.

Really though?
Just for the sake of discussion, tell me how many names do you see in the last 6 years lotteries that are at least as good as Middleton 2-3 years later (ie worth toying with everyone's nerves and sanity)?



I get 25 names out of 84 picks, thats a 30% chance of getting something good. And I'm being generous by including one way players like Devin Booker, even though I know on our team they are more trouble than they're worth. You literally have better chances to win at the slot machine in the casino.

In the next 14 spots I get 10/84, thats 12%. So your chances of getting something good are pretty crap in both cases, and if you look at individual drafts (ie, if you tank for one year) they can be pretty skewed in any direction. I call that a loose correlation that takes multiple years to materialise.

I don't think it makes sense to split the draft at the lottery when discussing whether or not to tank this year. You should really limit the scope of your analysis to picks we would have if we tank and picks we would have if we didn't tank. I believe if we tank we will be anywhere for 6-9. If we don't tank I think we are 11-14.

Here are the 6-9 picks:
Buddy Hield
Jamal Murray
Marquese Chriss
Jakob Poltl
Willie Cauley-Stein
Emmanuel Mudiay
Stanley Johnson
Frank Kaminsky
Marcus Smart
Julius Randle
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Nerlens Noel
Ben McLemore
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Trey Burke
Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Ross
Andre Drummond
Jan Vesely
Bismark Biyombo
Brandon Knight
Kemba Walker
These guys have started 3,287 games. 7 of them have been rookie of the month (14 total awards), 1 Rookie of the Year, 5 were 1st team all rookie, 4 were 2nd team all rookie, 2 have had Player of the Week (6 total awards), 2 have made an all-nba team, 3 have been all-stars.

Domantas Sabonis
Taurean Prince
Georgios Papagiannis
Denzel Valentine
Myles Turner
Trey Lyles
Devin Booker
Cameron Payne
Doug McDermott
Dario Saric
Zach Lavine
TJ Warren
Michael Carter Williams
Steven Adams
Kelly Olynyk
Shabazz Muhammad
Meyers Leonard
Jeremy Lamb
Kendall Marshall
John Henson
Klay Thompson
Alec Burks
Markeiff Morris
Marcus Morris

These guys have started 1,946 games. 2 of them have been rookie of the month (5 total awards), 1 Rookie of the Year, 3 were 1st team all rookie, 4 were 2nd team all rookie, 3 have had Player of the Week (3 total awards), 1 have made an all-nba team, 1 have been all-stars.

Kind of mixed results. MCW's rookie campaign really skews my flawed analysis.

I highlighted the guys in blue I think are valuable pieces. Also, with tanking, there is a small chance we get a top 3 pick as well.

[trwi7]

Just name the top 10 players in the NBA and look where they were drafted. This isn't **** hard. Yes there are always players drafted lower that turn into stars. The vast majority however were drafted in the top 5 or at most the top 10.

[KidA24]

http://saveourbucks.com/the-importance-of-a-top-5-pick/

[Diggr14]

Vaughn lowkey had an impressive defensive showing. If he brings that energy every night he deserves some development minutes regardless of his offense.

His offense will improve with more burn. His shot looks too good and he's too fluid for it to be constantly bad. He's still young, personally, I think he'll be a late bloomer in the NBA.

[Diggr14]

http://saveourbucks.com/the-importance-of-a-top-5-pick/

It's relative draft to draft I think.

In this draft, I believe you want to be top 7.. which we would have a shot at if we would play our guys for development the rest of the year.

After the deadline, we should see a steady diet of Brogdon, Vaughn, Maker, and Giannis. I wouldn't mind a starting lineup of Brogdon, Vaughn, Middleton, Maker, Giannis.

Bench of Delly, Telly, Snell, Beasley, Hawes.

Monroe (I dont know how he isn't traded- has value and would be a big addition for a playoff team)
Henson better be traded for a box of donuts.

[HKPackFan]

http://saveourbucks.com/the-importance-of-a-top-5-pick/

It's relative draft to draft I think.

In this draft, I believe you want to be top 7.. which we would have a shot at if we would play our guys for development the rest of the year.

After the deadline, we should see a steady diet of Brogdon, Vaughn, Maker, and Giannis. I wouldn't mind a starting lineup of Brogdon, Vaughn, Middleton, Maker, Giannis.

Bench of Delly, Telly, Snell, Beasley, Hawes.

Monroe (I dont know how he isn't traded- has value and would be a big addition for a playoff team)
Henson better be traded for a box of donuts.

7th is doable, but this team is hard to predict with Kidd at the helm. He likes to go away from what works for a few weeks, then brings it back.

[bigkurty]

I would love to get in the playoffs, but I'm terrified that would give kidd job security.

Probably. Which is why I totally wanna miss the playoffs.

I'm willing to bet we make it tho.

If we make it though, it will be on the back of the new Point Giannis strat. That had to come down as a directive from the owners. Maybe when Marc had the meeting with Kidd, that was one of thingS discussed. I doubt Jabari being out made Kidd switch to full blown point Giannis mode all of a sudden. That's Seth and Mike getting in the ear of the owners and sharing stats about how much better the team performs when we go full blown Point Giannis mode is my guess. Malcolm and Delly are solid ball handlers and take care of the rock but they don't have that Giannis gravity. They don't put nearly the same pressure on the defense. I'd be willing to bet the team offensive rating is quite a bit higher when Giannis initiates the offense versus Delly or Brogs.

[HKPackFan]

I would love to get in the playoffs, but I'm terrified that would give kidd job security.

Probably. Which is why I totally wanna miss the playoffs.

I'm willing to bet we make it tho.

If we make it though, it will be on the back of the new Point Giannis strat. That had to come down as a directive from the owners. Maybe when Marc had the meeting with Kidd, that was one of thingS discussed. I doubt Jabari being out made Kidd switch to full blown point Giannis mode all of a sudden. That's Seth and Mike getting in the ear of the owners and sharing stats about how much better the team performs when we go full blown Point Giannis mode is my guess. Malcolm and Delly are solid ball handlers and take care of the rock but they don't have that Giannis gravity. They don't put nearly the same pressure on the defense. I'd be willing to bet the team offensive rating is quite a bit higher when Giannis initiates the offense versus Delly or Brogs.

Make sense, do we have confirmation the owners put some pressure?

[VooDoo7]

I would love to get in the playoffs, but I'm terrified that would give kidd job security.

Probably. Which is why I totally wanna miss the playoffs.

I'm willing to bet we make it tho.

If we make it though, it will be on the back of the new Point Giannis strat. That had to come down as a directive from the owners. Maybe when Marc had the meeting with Kidd, that was one of thingS discussed. I doubt Jabari being out made Kidd switch to full blown point Giannis mode all of a sudden. That's Seth and Mike getting in the ear of the owners and sharing stats about how much better the team performs when we go full blown Point Giannis mode is my guess. Malcolm and Delly are solid ball handlers and take care of the rock but they don't have that Giannis gravity. They don't put nearly the same pressure on the defense. I'd be willing to bet the team offensive rating is quite a bit higher when Giannis initiates the offense versus Delly or Brogs.

I'm good with any of this...as long as Kidd is gone at season's end (hopefully sooner), regardless of if we make the playoffs or not.

[bigkurty]

Probably. Which is why I totally wanna miss the playoffs.

I'm willing to bet we make it tho.

If we make it though, it will be on the back of the new Point Giannis strat. That had to come down as a directive from the owners. Maybe when Marc had the meeting with Kidd, that was one of thingS discussed. I doubt Jabari being out made Kidd switch to full blown point Giannis mode all of a sudden. That's Seth and Mike getting in the ear of the owners and sharing stats about how much better the team performs when we go full blown Point Giannis mode is my guess. Malcolm and Delly are solid ball handlers and take care of the rock but they don't have that Giannis gravity. They don't put nearly the same pressure on the defense. I'd be willing to bet the team offensive rating is quite a bit higher when Giannis initiates the offense versus Delly or Brogs.

I'm good with any of this...as long as Kidd is gone at season's end (hopefully sooner), regardless of if we make the playoffs or not.

Same here. I want to fire Kidd yesterday and give Prunty the interim. If Middleton regains form quickly, Thon continues to improve, and Point Giannis persists at the request of the owners, the tank is probably dead anyway. Jabari put up stats but it's not like he was a real needle mover yet. Giannis though is a top ten player and they basically might have just given the directive to up his usage 5-10%. That is going to make us better. If Mids regains form soon, he helps you win more than Jabari. Thon helps you win more than Henson. How the heck do we effectively tank then? That's why I think we should dump Kidd asap and give the team a competent coach for the remainder of the season.

Prunty went 8-9 last year. Kidd went 25-40. The offense was equivalent to being ranked 4th in the east under Prunty last year. In total they were ranked 11th in the east last year. Do the math and that means they were probably 12-14th when coached by Kidd.

[VooDoo7]

I thought Prunty went 9-8 in Kid's absence? Anyways, your point is exactly right. It was very noticeable how different we looked under Prunty. And that says a lot.

[ampd]

The importance of a top 5 pick that doesn't blow out his knee twice in 3 years you mean

[sidney lanier]

No one advocates this strategy most of the time until it already looks like a lost season. It's the same concept in baseball as "buyers" & "sellers". You have to know when the appropriate time to do either is. The Bucks are still most definitely in position to be sellers.

I agree that the Bucks are far from being a team that's a piece or two away this year. I think someone here in one of these discussions used the analogy of the Bucks being a development stage company, and I think that's about right. The focus should be on building for the future, not current-year results.

Where the MLB analogy breaks down for me is the difference in efficiency in the talent markets. Baseball talent moves more freely around the league than basketball talent does. In baseball real talent moves from team to team via free agency or trades. In the NBA nothing much moves from team to team except marginal talent, with the exception of the rare big FA move like Durant to GSW or Garnett to BOS.

The inefficiency of the basketball talent market makes a modified TT/Packers grow-your-own approach about all you have to work with. That seems like it should mean tanking for draft position and hoping to get lucky, but that Sixerish approach is superficial and flawed, I think, because the collaborative nature of basketball requires roster stability for success.

The Tao Te Ching says governing a country is like frying a small fish: too much poking in the frying pan and you spoil it. It's the same with roster-building IMO: too much change, even for marginal improvement, risks creating a hot mess.

[Swan Vox]

No one advocates this strategy most of the time until it already looks like a lost season. It's the same concept in baseball as "buyers" & "sellers". You have to know when the appropriate time to do either is. The Bucks are still most definitely in position to be sellers.

I agree that the Bucks are far from being a team that's a piece or two away this year. I think someone here in one of these discussions used the analogy of the Bucks being a development stage company, and I think that's about right. The focus should be on building for the future, not current-year results.

Where the MLB analogy breaks down for me is the difference in efficiency in the talent markets. Baseball talent moves more freely around the league than basketball talent does. In baseball real talent moves from team to team via free agency or trades. In the NBA nothing much moves from team to team except marginal talent, with the exception of the rare big FA move like Durant to GSW or Garnett to BOS.

The inefficiency of the basketball talent market makes a modified TT/Packers grow-your-own approach about all you have to work with. That seems like it should mean tanking for draft position and hoping to get lucky, but that Sixerish approach is superficial and flawed, I think, because the collaborative nature of basketball requires roster stability for success.

The Tao Te Ching says governing a country is like frying a small fish: too much poking in the frying pan and you spoil it. It's the same with roster-building IMO: too much change, even for marginal improvement, risks creating a hot mess.

All good points. Still don't see the advantage of holding on to guys like Henson or even Telly & Delly for that matter.