Edited: Bucks Final Draft Lottery Odds

[worthlessBucks]

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Sarcasm, I hope?

Quote from The Office

[smauss]

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Quote from The Office

Wheeew, I'm so very glad to hear (read) that! I don't watch that pgm so forgive my ignorance.

[europa]

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I mean really, Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.

Well done.

[jerrod]

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Wheeew, I'm so very glad to hear (read) that! I don't watch that pgm so forgive my ignorance.

NO

watch it

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

Quote from The Office

New episode tonight, right?

[bango_the_buck]

15%? That's a lot better than I thought.

I lost a poker hand at Potawatomi that I only had a 0.67% chance of losing after the flop. 15% sounds like great odds to me...

[Bucks_Revenge]

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New episode tonight, right?

oh yea cannot wait its been like 5 months since the last new episode.

[europa]

Played the lottery game on ESPN 10 times for fun. Here were the results:

2nd pick (once): Beasley
3rd pick (once): Baylis
7th pick (five times): Gordon
8th pick (three times): Westbrook picked once/Gordon picked twice

It appears Chad Ford really thinks the Bucks are going to pick Eric Gordon.

[fam3381]

Thanks Slide.

This thread is vastly superior to people playing the lottery game on ESPN and then reporting their experience as though it provides some sort of scientific insight

To me the most important number is the chance we have of being somewhere in the top three (15%). We all know it's a longshot for us to win the lottery, but there's still a non-trivial chance we get into the top three. (ETA: Europa, I hadn't even seen your post when I typed that, so I wasn't trying to pick on you!)

While I think Rose and Beasley are the top two, I think Mayo at least right now would be my clear third choice. After that I really can't figure out if anyone really stands out. Even so, I think we'd also have vastly better trade opportunities at 3 than 7. For instance, Memphis looks a lot better trading Conley (#4 last year) for the third pick this year than the seventh spot, even if in practicality the quality of player available at those slots isn't very different.

[europa]

This thread is vastly superior to people playing the lottery game on ESPN and then reporting their experience as though it provides some sort of scientific insight

Good thing nobody did that, huh?

[fam3381]

Good thing nobody did that, huh?

See my ETA...and I realize you were also talking about how Ford is actually projecting. Do Ford's projections account for team situation as well, or is it just going off his big board order?

[europa]

I'm just having some fun. I'm not sure how Ford does the analysis but I'm guessing it's based on who he thinks teams will take and not so much just a the Bucks are picking 8th and I have Gordon listed 8th so there you go. The fact that he had Gordon going both 7th and 8th to the Bucks in different mocks suggests he's basing it on more than just his big board rankings.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm just having some fun. I'm not sure how Ford does the analysis but I'm guessing it's based on who he thinks teams will take and not so much just a the Bucks are picking 8th and I have Gordon listed 8th so there you go. The fact that he had Gordon going both 7th and 8th to the Bucks in different mocks suggests he's basing it on more than just his big board rankings.

Yeah but in 2005 Ford had the Bucks picking Marvin first. The Bucks and Hornets were the only teams that he thought would pick Marvin first; every other team in the lottery he predicted would pick Bogut. So much for playing the lottery over and over to figure out how Ford thinks each team will pick.

I know how one could calculate the odds of the Bucks moving into the top 3 and it's not pretty. The odds of the Bucks winning are easy, but to calculate the odds of them picking 2 you have to calculate 13 different probabilities and add them because there are 13 other teams that could win and each of those scenarios results in a different probability of the Bucks picking second, because each scenario results in the Bucks "competing" against a different number of live combinations (the combinations belonging to the winner stay in the hopper but become inert).

Then to calculate the probability of the Bucks picking 3 you have to consider the 13 different possible winners, and within each of those 12 different #2 teams. That's 156 probabilities to calculate and add.

Finally you add the totals for picking 1,2, or 3 and you get the odds of the Bucks picking in the top 3. Based on experience with problems like this 15% sounds about right, but I ain't gonna check it.

[Bucks_Revenge]

i remember in 2005 playing the lottery game and we had a 6% chance ..I remember getting the #1 pick like 7/10 times...is anyone suspicous of that now like I am ...conspiracy!

[SlideRuleJockey]

I know how one could calculate the odds of the Bucks moving into the top 3 and it's not pretty.

Thats exactly how I did it. You then have to consider how the each team would stay at their seed, move down 1 spot, 2 spots and 3 spots.

Then you make 14 different Worksheets, 1 for each of the 14 teams. And then you have to have a way to enter the different number of combinations for each team, depending if there are ties and have the spreadsheet automatically update the odds. A fairly nasty piece of work, but it is done.

All I have to do with this spreadsheet is enter the combinations for the 14 teams, and it pukes out the odds for each team for each of thier possible picks.

I just hope that the Lottery system does not change anytime soon.

[DutchManDanFan]

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Thats exactly how I did it. You then have to consider how the each team would stay at their seed, move down 1 spot, 2 spots and 3 spots.

Then you make 14 different Worksheets, 1 for each of the 14 teams. And then you have to have a way to enter the different number of combinations for each team, depending if there are ties and have the spreadsheet automatically update the odds. A fairly nasty piece of work, but it is done.

All I have to do with this spreadsheet is enter the combinations for the 14 teams, and it pukes out the odds for each team for each of thier possible picks.

I just hope that the Lottery system does not change anytime soon.

I did exactly the same last year...

[coolhandluke121]

Well done. Theory of Probability is my all-time favorite course, in any subject. This problem is a dandy.

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

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I did exactly the same last year...

I think you were the one I argued with at length last year on how to calculate the odds. All I remember for sure is that I was the one who was wrong.

[SlideRuleJockey]

Opening Post updated. The Bucks now own the 7 Seed, and can not move up nor down. No other team can tie them.

It is a done deal, the Bucks will own 43 of the 1000 Draft Lottery Combinations.

I will update this one more time after the regular season is done, so that the odds will reflect any potential ties between teams above or below the Seven Spot.

Potential ties still exist.

The T-Wolves, Grizlies and Clips are bunched up. The Bulls and Bobcats both have 31 wins.

[bigkurty]

Opening Post updated. The Bucks now own the 7 Seed, and can not move up nor down. No other team can tie them.

It is a done deal, the Bucks will own 43 of the 1000 Draft Lottery Combinations.

I will update this one more time after the regular season is done, so that the odds will reflect any potential ties between teams above or below the Seven Spot.

Potential ties still exist.

The T-Wolves, Grizlies and Clips are bunched up. The Bulls and Bobcats both have 31 wins.

I don't think its possible for us to end up in a tie breaker anymore so we should be stuck with those 43 ping pong balls no matter what shouldn't we?