Didn't see this posted anywhere. I think the SG/SF rankings are particularly interesting, with only Alexander being deemed a solid 1st round draft choice (with Greene, Mayo, and CDR being fringe 1st rounders; Gordon, Westbrook, and Randolph considered the riff-raff; and Rush and Walker lucky to be drafted).
WINGS
OK, on to the wing men. This isn't exactly a banner year for the 2 and 3 positions, as we're about to see, but a few players should be able to push legitimately into the first round.
First, a look at history. You'll notice the same story as with the point guards and centers. A rating above 16 pretty much guarantees a lottery spot; in fact every player rated above 15 in the last six years was a lottery pick, and every player above 14 was a first-rounder.
As with the other spots, things get dodgy between 12.5 and 14, where we've had a few very good players (Caron Butler and Ben Gordon) and a couple of very bad ones (Julius Hodge and Vincent Yarbrough). Most but not all were first-rounders.
The interesting part for wings is that players rated between 11 and 12.5 have been much more successful than those at other positions -- 15 of the 38 such players in the past six drafts eventually cracked a pro rotation, and a couple (Kevin Martin and Mo Williams) became really good.
For players rated below 11.0, the luck ran out -- we see a few rotation players but no long-term starters. But the odds of bucking the projections still appear better for wings than for players at any other position.
Top-rated wings since 2002
Player Projected Yr. 3 PER Draft Year
Dwyane Wade 17.81 2003
Carmelo Anthony 17.38 2003
Luol Deng 16.71 2004
Rudy Gay 16.21 2006
Julian Wright 15.86 2007
Rashad McCants 15.41 2005
Andre Iguodala 15.16 2004
Danny Granger 14.55 2005
Shawne Williams 14.37 2006
Josh Howard 14.31 2003
Looking at our top candidates this year, they're going to need to buck those odds, because only a couple project as long-term rotation players in the NBA.
Solid first-rounders
Joe Alexander, West Virginia (14.58).
That's it. Thanks for dropping by, everyone.
We'll see a couple other highly touted wings further down the list, but Alexander is the only one who cracks the threshold of a typical lottery selection. And in this case, the fact that Alexander took up the game at a late age means we're probably understating his pro potential.
Fringe first-rounders
Donte Greene, Syracuse (13.17); O.J. Mayo, USC (13.00); Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis (12.78).
This is going to surprise some people, as Mayo has been projected as high as No. 3 in the draft. Truth be told, in this draft he probably deserves to be a lottery pick even going by these ratings -- he's rated 16th overall, and his one season of stats means his estimate is more prone to error than the projections of players who stayed in school longer. But he'll be 21 on Nov. 5, and this system takes age into account when projecting potential.
Greene and Douglas-Roberts are where everyone expects, so I don't have much to add here.
The riff-raff
Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State (12.35); Reggie Williams, VMI (12.22); Pat Calathes, State Joe's (11.95); Eric Gordon, Indiana (11.93); Russell Westbrook, UCLA (11.91); Malik Hairston, Oregon (11.85); Anthony Randolph, LSU (11.78).
OK, another controversial outcome. Both Gordon and Westbrook are projected lottery picks, but neither fares well here.
Though Westbrook is seen by many as a point guard, he actually rated even worse when I tried him there. It's possible he was just playing out of position at UCLA, but the projections say it's not worth using a top-10 pick to find out.
Eric Gordon's rating is less surprising to me -- subjectively, I've been suspicious of him for some time, and I'm a little unsure what has everyone so excited.
I also tried Randolph here, since some scouts see him as a 3 rather than a 4, and his rating at small forward was better than his awful one as a power forward. It's still hard to put him in the first round based on these numbers, but he's at least draftable.
Jamont Gordon shapes up as a bit of a sleeper -- he rated even higher as a point guard, and at 6-4 could be a decent third guard backing up both positions. At the moment most see him as a second-rounder.
Fringe second-rounders
Bill Walker, Kansas State (11.74); Kyle Weaver, Washington State (11.61); Brandon Rush, Kansas (11.34); Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA (11.27); Josh Duncan, Xavier (11.25); Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky (11.17).
Because of the general lack of depth in this draft, a number of these players are projected as potential first-rounders for whom the numbers say buyer beware.
Walker may be the most interesting of the bunch since the evaluation period covers a time when he was coming back from a serious knee injury, so it's possible he'll be a much better pro than this projection indicates. Rush may also have a bit more value than the numbers show because of his rep as a defensive ace.
Better update that passport
Davon Jefferson, USC (10.99); Chris Lofton, Tennessee (10.80); DeMarcus Nelson, Duke (10.78); Sonny Weems, Arkansas (10.76); Shan Foster, Vanderbilt (10.58); Richard Roby, Colorado (9.77); Gary Forbes, Massachusetts (9.49); J.R. Giddens, New Mexico (9.16); Bryce Taylor, Oregon (8.79); Marcelus Kemp, Nevada (8.16).
No big surprises here, as none of these players are likely to go before the middle of the second round.