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Bogut's role going forward?

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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#41 » by europa » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:07 am

I think the best way to add more talent is to make proper use of the assets you have who don't fit. Right now, the three main assets are Mo, Villanueva and Dez's $5M expiring deal. I don't think two of those are enough to get Hinrich and a player like Haslem. I think it will take some combination of all three and maybe more than that. But mainly, I'm just at the point where I can't see how Villanueva will change under a new head coach - especially one who demands the types of things Villanueva is well known for not providing. I just think Skiles and Villanueva are a bad match and the Bucks know it. There's a reason why they pushed so hard to get the Jefferson deal done with Villanueva and not Yi.

Sadly, there's also a reason why the Nets didn't want Villanueva and demanded on Yi being part of the trade.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#42 » by ReasonablySober » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:08 am

Say for a moment we get Hinrich and Haslem. That means Bogut is now 4th on the offensive totem pole and we've got a team of guys that like to shoot and few that are apt to move the ball around.

Can someone answer the original question? How much do you pay a 4th option if his primary job is rebounding (to which he's average) and defending (maybe above-average at best) and dunking from a dish when he's wide open.

With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd and Kirk Hinrich this team is as perimeter-based as it's been since the Robinson, Allen and Cassell days.

Look at the situation from the outside-in. Look at it from someone who really isn't emotionally invested in any of the players. There's a reason that Minnesota fans thought that they could get Bogut AND the #8 for the third pick. For a pick as high as Bogut was, he's underwhelmed.

Now, in this hypothetical role, how much do you pay the guy?
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#43 » by europa » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:12 am

I think if the Bucks got Hinrich, Bogut could still remain no lower than third on the offensive totem pole. I could see it being something like:

1. Redd
2. Jefferson
3a. Bogut
3b. Hinrich

Hinrich's a guy who will do what he's asked to help his team win. He's not a guy who will come to Milwaukee and demand X number of shots or feel like he needs to shoot all the time. He's a team player. That's one of the many reasons why I like him and want the Bucks to pursue him.

Bogut's play will determine how much he gets. Right now, I think he's at a level slightly above the 5/$52M deal Kaman got. I think $11M a year for Bogut is a good offer right now. If his game continues to improve, his price will go up. That's why I think it's beneficial for the Bucks to lock him up this summer and get him signed to an affordable deal.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#44 » by paulpressey25 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:12 am

I think we agree the Mo for Haslem swap is feasible.

Now we come to Hinrich. Given the Bulls have Gooden, Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas and Noah I don't see the room for CV. That's where I see the Hinrich trade being a Desmond plus a future #1 type deal. In that instance CV is the hold-over. If they'd take CV without the future 1, then great. But I think they'd value the future one more.

I don't see any benefit in giving the guy away. Again we've now completely remade the team. Yi's out....Bobby is out....Mo is out...and you've brought in a support system around CV. He may still not get it. But somewhere this team will need veteran bench scoring in the frontcourt.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#45 » by paul » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:12 am

paulpressey25 wrote:
europa wrote:I agree it makes sense not to expect anything great out of Alexander as a rookie. But I'd rather see him get minutes than Villanueva if for no other reason than I feel confident he won't cheat the team in terms of effort the way Villanueva does.


You know as well as I do though that you have to have talent first. If Alexander doesn't have the talent the minutes won't matter. Plus I want to win next year. I don't want to have RJ and Redd and then spend the season trying to develop Alexander.

If CV wants to whine about being 6th man then trade him. But he's in a spot now where it is contract year. He's got to sort it out. If he does, he might do ok with better defenders around him. Plus remember, we traded his whining buddy last week and now have a real group of assistant coaches on the bench to keep him in line.


Not only that, but I think CV's major problem last season wasn't being a 6th man, it was starting behind the rookie Yi and getting yanked when he was playing well for Yi no matter how badly Yi was playing - and I feel it was a very legitimate beef. He didn't have a designated role in the first half of last season other than 'LK's whipping boy'. I honestly think if Skiles sat him down and said to him 'your going to be our 6th man this year, your going to get 20-25 minutes a night and we're going to be heavily reliant on you to bring a ton of energy off the bench' you'd have a completely different player.

Sitting behind a rookie because the coach hates you is COMPLETELY different to sitting behind a veteran to play a designated and important role on the team imo.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#46 » by europa » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:14 am

I'm fine with keeping Villanueva if he's the third-string PF if the Bucks can land Hinrich and Haslem. I'm cool with that. :) Honestly, I'd rather see what Alexander can do at PF and give him a chance to succeed or fail there before going back to Villanueva. I've seen Charlie Villanueva. I want to see someone else there now.

More importantly, Hammond is trying to trade Villanueva so it's clear he realizes this is not a good fit. I doubt he'll suddenly stop trying now just because Yi is gone.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#47 » by paulpressey25 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:17 am

DrugBust wrote:With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd and Kirk Hinrich this team is as perimeter-based as it's been since the Robinson, Allen and Cassell days.


That I don't agree with. Redd and RJ get to the line. A lot.

In 2000-01
Big Dog 4.0 FTA
Ray 4.8 FTA
Sam 4.3 FTA

Last year:

Redd 6.8 (7.8 the year prior)
RJ 8.3 FTA
Hinrich 2.1 FTA (3.6 the year prior)
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#48 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:18 am

Bogut is no worst than the third option regardless of the moves we are likely to make. It seems people are trying to make something out of nothing. And how in the HELL are we building around Redd just by adding RJ? It was a good deal for the Bucks and they made it.

Right now we have three second tier guys in Redd/RJ/Bogut. Put the right pieces around them and this can be a successful team next year.

I expect Bogut to improve yet again. 17/10 with good %'s.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#49 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:20 am

Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, RJ and Redd both get to the line. It's all about PPS, Redd was 11th for SG's, and RJ was 4th for SF's. You can expect Redd to go up with more open looks next year. Offense would not be an issue with this team, you have the shooter, the slasher, and the back to the basket guy, a very good mix.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#50 » by InsideOut » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:20 am

Hinrich
Redd
Jefferson
Haslem
Bogut

Looks great until you realize that after Bogut signs these guys will combine for roughly 57 million a season. As it stands right now this team is looking at paying a roll player 8 figures. I've been saying for years that player will end up being Redd. I think this next season is the year we find out if my crystal ball works or not. I also think were about to find out just how much Kohl is willing to spend.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#51 » by europa » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:23 am

LUKE23 wrote:Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, RJ and Redd both get to the line. It's all about PPS, Redd was 11th for SG's, and RJ was 4th for SF's. You can expect Redd to go up with more open looks next year. Offense would not be an issue with this team, you have the shooter, the slasher, and the back to the basket guy, a very good mix.


The ability to get to the line is a huge stat in my opinion. It's been underrated in this forum with regard to Redd's game and I've never understood why. Now you add Jefferson, who also excels at getting to the line. That's a dynamic 1-2 punch in a critical offensive area. If Bogut can improve his FT shooting - which to me is one of the top two things he needs to do this offseason - now you'll have three guys who can draw fouls. That's a pretty nice thing for an offense to have because of the pressure it puts on a defense.

Of course, Redd can't keep missing FTs in the fourth quarter the way he did this past season. But that's another subject entirely. :)
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#52 » by ReasonablySober » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:24 am

paulpressey25 wrote:
DrugBust wrote:With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd and Kirk Hinrich this team is as perimeter-based as it's been since the Robinson, Allen and Cassell days.


That I don't agree with. Redd and RJ get to the line. A lot.

In 2000-01
Big Dog 4.0 FTA
Ray 4.8 FTA
Sam 4.3 FTA

Last year:

Redd 6.8 (7.8 the year prior)
RJ 8.3 FTA
Hinrich 2.1 FTA (3.6 the year prior)


By saying perimeter based i meant that's where the overwhelming amount of scoring is coming from, those three positions.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#53 » by ReasonablySober » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:26 am

LUKE23 wrote:Bogut is no worst than the third option regardless of the moves we are likely to make. It seems people are trying to make something out of nothing.


You really think that Bogut is going to get more shots than one of Mo, Redd and RJ? And that he should, barring a big improvement in his shooting and post ability?

Really?
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#54 » by paul » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:27 am

DrugBust wrote:Say for a moment we get Hinrich and Haslem. That means Bogut is now 4th on the offensive totem pole and we've got a team of guys that like to shoot and few that are apt to move the ball around.

Can someone answer the original question? How much do you pay a 4th option if his primary job is rebounding (to which he's average) and defending (maybe above-average at best) and dunking from a dish when he's wide open.

With Richard Jefferson, Michael Redd and Kirk Hinrich this team is as perimeter-based as it's been since the Robinson, Allen and Cassell days.

Look at the situation from the outside-in. Look at it from someone who really isn't emotionally invested in any of the players. There's a reason that Minnesota fans thought that they could get Bogut AND the #8 for the third pick. For a pick as high as Bogut was, he's underwhelmed.

Now, in this hypothetical role, how much do you pay the guy?


DB I understand what your asking, but I disagree with the premise. If Hinrich is brought in it will be to act as a distributor to Redd, RJ and Bogut, not to act as a primary scoring focus. There's just no way in that situation that Hinrich is valued above Bogut as a scoring option - has more plays run for him to shoot than Bogut etc.

Also the reason Minny fans wanted Bogut & #8 for the #3 is because they were completely delusional. Ours was nowhere near the only delusional offer they were throwing around, and even then half their fans knew it was delusional. We have plenty of people on our board who are delusional about trades as well, this shouldn't be a new phenomenon to you, particularly around draft time where the crazies really come out to play.

Like it or not Bogut is likely to receive an offer of a minimum $11m per, of that you can be certain. That figure could rise as high as $14m per, but I'll be happy if we get away with $12 - 5 years $60 million. That may see like a lot to you but the fact is every other team in the league apart from Orlando, Houston, LA, LAC and maybe one or two others would be more than happy to pay him that. You only have to look at what some other centers around the place are paid like Dalambert for example to get some idea of what he's worth and unfortunately for our cap situation it's a lot.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#55 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:28 am

Something I know is not going to happen, but do people realize that if we went with Mo/Redd/RJ/CV/Bogut, we probably have the most offensively potent starting five in the entire league? I know it has defensive issues at 1, 2, and 4, but I'm just throwing it out there. 89 ppg last year between those five, and that's without CV getting full starter minutes.

I know that isn't going to be our five most likely, but that team is sick offensively.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#56 » by europa » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:28 am

The Big 3 team had to get scoring from PG, SG and SF because they didn't have a post option to utilize. If Bogut keeps improving, this team will. And given how Skiles' Bulls' teams had issues in the playoffs because they lacked a post option, my guess is Skiles isn't going to ignore Bogut should Bogut's game merit a key role in the offense. If anyone knows how painful it can be to watch a perimeter-oriented team fall short in the playoffs, it's Scott Skiles. Bogut isn't a great post option yet by any means but he's a vastly improved one and if his game continues to improve he'll give Skiles something he never had with his Bulls team and something the Bucks haven't had since Sikma and Lanier were around.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#57 » by LUKE23 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:29 am

DrugBust wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:Bogut is no worst than the third option regardless of the moves we are likely to make. It seems people are trying to make something out of nothing.


You really think that Bogut is going to get more shots than one of Mo, Redd and RJ? And that he should, barring a big improvement in his shooting and post ability?

Really?


I think Mo is likely to be moved, which is why I said of the moves likely to be made. And I would go to Bogut in the post before I had Mo shoot if I'm a coach regardless, and this is coming from someone who really likes Mo on offense.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#58 » by europa » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:30 am

LUKE23 wrote:Something I know is not going to happen, but do people realize that if we went with Mo/Redd/RJ/CV/Bogut, we probably have the most offensively potent starting five in the entire league? I know it has defensive issues at 1, 2, and 4, but I'm just throwing it out there. 89 ppg last year between those five, and that's without CV getting full starter minutes.

I know that isn't going to be our five most likely, but that team is sick offensively.


Looks like a helluva fantasy league roster. :)
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#59 » by paulpressey25 » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:30 am

I see what you are saying. I'd only say that if we kept Bogut and CV, we'd arguably have two inside scorers better than anything we had in 2001.

As to Inside's point, I agree. We will find out what Kohl will spend. The RJ trade was the first trade where Kohl took back more than $18 million in future salary for any single player. RJ gets what...$45 million still to come? I think the prior record was $18 million for Joe Smith in 2003.

Kohl has never before taken on a contract anything close to this in a trade.....you guys can correct me, but I think I'm recalling this correctly. I also don't think he's ever taken on more than say $20 million in aggregate salary of all players coming back in a trade. He just doesn't do this.
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Re: Bogut's role going forward? 

Post#60 » by ReasonablySober » Sun Jun 29, 2008 4:33 am

LUKE23 wrote:
DrugBust wrote:
LUKE23 wrote:Bogut is no worst than the third option regardless of the moves we are likely to make. It seems people are trying to make something out of nothing.


You really think that Bogut is going to get more shots than one of Mo, Redd and RJ? And that he should, barring a big improvement in his shooting and post ability?

Really?


I think Mo is likely to be moved, which is why I said of the moves likely to be made. And I would go to Bogut in the post before I had Mo shoot if I'm a coach regardless, and this is coming from someone who really likes Mo on offense.


Um, what in past history would lead you to go to Bogut before Mo? Mo's got the better efficiency rating, better TS%...

Serious question.

Unless we're talking Bogut on a wide open dunk in the lane, Mo's the better option.

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