MJS: Bogut Wants Extension By Mid-July

[LUKE23]

If he explodes (lets just say 17/11/2 for the sake of argument), then we have to pay him substantially more. I'd easily rather "overpay" him by $8M over 5 years (although I think Bogut given center production and past contracts has earned 5/55-5/60 right now), than to have to give him substantially more on a per year basis.

It's the same as baseball contracts. If you sign then to a little more early you're banking on improvement, but it saves you from that huge year before a contract year where you have to break the bank.

[europa]

Kaman signed his 5/$52.5 M contract after the 2005-06 season (also his third), a season which he averaged 12.0/9.6/1.4 on 52.3%. Bogut was at 14.4/9.8/1.7 on 51.1%. So Bogut did have a marginally better year than Kaman, while also being two years younger. Given the extra two years for inflation, I'd say 5/$60M is a good deal for both sides.

I'd prefer to sign him for less than $12M but I could live with that. I think it's in everyone's best interests to get this done now. Bogut's become one of the top young players in the game and is arguably the second-best center in the East behind Howard. I don't want to go over $12M to keep him but I also don't want to d**k around with a player who's clearly improving and has the talent and potential to keep getting better.

[flying piranha]

I'd give him the 12 million range and get the deal done. He showed great progress last year and should thrive under Skiles - especially if we land a point guard interested in playing team ball. I think Bogut is better than Kaman with more upside over the next five years. If he can take another step similar to last year, he'll be hard to keep off the all star roster.
Pay the boy

[raferfenix]

I definitely think it's in everyone's best interests to get a deal done. I don't see Bogut throwing a hissy fit about money either, as he's based a lot of his persona around his humility.

Here was the most interesting part of the article to me though:

“I spoke to Andrew right after the draft, and he was intrigued by Joe Alexander. John Hammond said he can play the 4, and to get a hard-nosed guy at the 4, he’s going to be a good complement to Andrew’s abilities.”

So not only do we think Alexander is a 4, but we're so confident in how he'll help both Bogut and our team that we're using him in our contract negotiations.

[LUKE23]

I don't take that as us using Alexander in contract negotiations. It's really just Bogut commenting on the team moves through his agent.

[europa]

I think it's safe to say Bogut would like what many of us have wanted to see the past two seasons - a hard-nosed, tough player alongside him at PF. I'm not sure how good Alexander will be at PF but I feel very confident in predicting he'll be a helluva lot tougher than Villanueva and probably tougher than Yi too.

[paul]

If he explodes (lets just say 17/11/2 for the sake of argument), then we have to pay him substantially more. I'd easily rather "overpay" him by $8M over 5 years (although I think Bogut given center production and past contracts has earned 5/55-5/60 right now), than to have to give him substantially more on a per year basis.

It's the same as baseball contracts. If you sign then to a little more early you're banking on improvement, but it saves you from that huge year before a contract year where you have to break the bank.

Yep agree completely. If we were to let him play out his fourth year (which btw I don't think there's any chance in hell we will) and he busts out, or just continues his current rate of development depending on which way you look at it, he'd be in for a massive payday. Luke I'd take your example one step further and say if he pushed up to 18/12/3/2 (he probably won't, but it's far from impossible) at 24 years old with excellent defense we'd be offering the max or very close to it. He'd also be RFA unless I'm mistaken meaning that another team could come in and offer him the max (again far from impossible) and we'd HAVE to match, or watch potentially our best player for the next 6-8 years walk out the door. Every single one of us would then be bemoaning yet another ridiculous decision by Bucks management.

Now there is the very very slight chance that he could stagnate or even regress and I'm happy to acknowledge that, but given his development of last season I find that unlikely, and even if he did stagnate - a roughly 15/10/3/2 center with excellent defense is hardly a liability or 'unmovable' at $12M per.

For some common sense defying reason Bogut really wants to stay with an organization that has been a rabble for the vast majority of his time here, let's not p*ss the guy off by lowballing. Pay him what he's worth and move on - if he's offered what he's worth I don't see him haggling. Using Kaman's deal as a guide (and hopefully not Dalambert's) I'd say 5 years $60M looks about spot on, if we can get him for $55 great.

[LUKE23]

What I will look at is probability of what we'd pay over the next six years. The probability of paying more in total is much higher if we don't get an extension done this offseason, because IMO the chance of improvement yet again from Bogut under Skiles is very likely.

Much rather overpay slightly now and have a good value contract throughout then to play hardball over $1.4M per year, and then have to pay significantly more on a per year basis next offseason.

I will use the Ryan Braun contract as an example. They paid him based on future expectations based off only one year of production, however, if he pans out to what they expect, 7/$45 is going to be a steal for a 40 HR, .300 type guy. If they went through the normal baseball process, they'd pay him less for the next couple years, but then if he does what they expect he's making an asinine amount of money.

[xTitan]

Here is the problem that I see..If I am Bogut I am hard pressed to take less than Dalembert or what Okafur gets, if they offer less, then fine I'll play out the year. If I am playing for a contract year I am going to be extremely concerned about my numbers, which means a hell of alot less passing and alot more emphasis on scoring. This board and fanbase has always undervalued him, if the Bucks do the same thing, I hope he follows Okafur's lead and does what he has do to to get paid....which is what the majority of his teammates did.

[jerrod]

if it took 5/60 to get it done this summer i guess i'd do it, i'm hoping for a little less though since we're offering him essentially the confidence to go play in the olympics without worrying about it

[LUKE23]

Here is the problem that I see..If I am Bogut I am hard pressed to take less than Dalembert or what Okafur gets, if they offer less, then fine I'll play out the year. If I am playing for a contract year I am going to be extremely concerned about my numbers, which means a hell of alot less passing and alot more emphasis on scoring. This board and fanbase has always undervalued him, if the Bucks do the same thing, I hope he follows Okafur's lead and does what he has do to to get paid....which is what the majority of his teammates did.

This makes no sense unless you're a Bogut fan over a Bucks fan. I'm a Bucks fan. I want Bogut signed, but I want it for the least amount possible over the next 5-6 seasons. There is absolutely zero reason a fan of this team would want a player to "get his". What other players did is irrelevant.

[europa]

The Dalembert contract is the killer. The Sixers overpaid bigtime to keep him but I agree that Bogut should be looking for that kind of a deal. However, as I've said many times before - just because other teams have screwed up the marketplace by overpaying doesn't mean the Bucks have to follow suit. You have to draw a line in the sand at some point and maintain an intelligent salary structure. Again, I don't want to lowball Bogut and I don't want to d**k around with him given how good he is and how important I believe him to be to this team. But I also don't want to add another bad contract to the list of bad contracts that preceded the Hammond Era.

[ReasonablySober]

Here is the problem that I see..If I am Bogut I am hard pressed to take less than Dalembert or what Okafur gets, if they offer less, then fine I'll play out the year. If I am playing for a contract year I am going to be extremely concerned about my numbers, which means a hell of alot less passing and alot more emphasis on scoring. This board and fanbase has always undervalued him, if the Bucks do the same thing, I hope he follows Okafur's lead and does what he has do to to get paid....which is what the majority of his teammates did.

This makes no sense unless you're a Bogut fan over a Bucks fan. I'm a Bucks fan. I want Bogut signed, but I want it for the least amount possible over the next 5-6 seasons. There is absolutely zero reason a fan of this team would want a player to "get his". What other players did is irrelevant.

Umm....

[LISTEN2JAZZ]

So people want to offer him the full $12 million this summer because of the risk that he will blow up and earn a $14 million contract the following summer? That perceived risk doesn't seem to be based on mathematical expectation at all.

The value of not owing any player money for the next six or seven years is being overlooked I think. GAD made a comment earlier about teams having to pay 20% of the bill in the event of an injury. Maybe he also knows the yearly cost of holding insurance int he first place? As soon as we sign the contract, we accept the costs associated with injury risk, and these are costs that measure in the millions of dollars.

If the only two options (just a thought excericise - of course there are more than two options) are signing Bogut to $12 million a year, and not extending him at all this summer, some of the pro/cons look like this.

Pros:
Avoid the risk that you have to pay him $2 million more per year. (low likelyhood)
Avoid the risk that he takes just the QO and leaves Milwaukee later on for less money than we could pay him. (low likelihood)

Cons:
Take on the risk that his play next year could have led to a contract at $2 million less per year. (low likelihood)
Have to pay larger insurance premiums immediatly. (certainty)
Take on the risk that he suffers a career ending injury. (low likelihood)

In my mind the chance that his value could go up or down cancel each other out, and you're left with the certainty that you take on injury risk and insurance premiums in the meantime.

[xTitan]

Here is the problem that I see..If I am Bogut I am hard pressed to take less than Dalembert or what Okafur gets, if they offer less, then fine I'll play out the year. If I am playing for a contract year I am going to be extremely concerned about my numbers, which means a hell of alot less passing and alot more emphasis on scoring. This board and fanbase has always undervalued him, if the Bucks do the same thing, I hope he follows Okafur's lead and does what he has do to to get paid....which is what the majority of his teammates did.

This makes no sense unless you're a Bogut fan over a Bucks fan. I'm a Bucks fan. I want Bogut signed, but I want it for the least amount possible over the next 5-6 seasons. There is absolutely zero reason a fan of this team would want a player to "get his". What other players did is irrelevant.

That is the NBA way, all players do it...I am just saying it is what will happen. What NBA player, or Bucks for that reason did not play in his final cotract year to get his? It is really the same in the MLB look at Ben Sheets....you don't think Prince and Corey are going to get theres in there walk year?

[Todd_Day]

Pay the man and move on.

I know it may be a cap killer, but I think we have to do this and then run at Brand in some fashion.

Celtics, episode II could be in Milwaukee.

Brand, Bogut, Redd, Jefferson.

[paul]

Here is the problem that I see..If I am Bogut I am hard pressed to take less than Dalembert or what Okafur gets, if they offer less, then fine I'll play out the year. If I am playing for a contract year I am going to be extremely concerned about my numbers, which means a hell of alot less passing and alot more emphasis on scoring. This board and fanbase has always undervalued him, if the Bucks do the same thing, I hope he follows Okafur's lead and does what he has do to to get paid....which is what the majority of his teammates did.

That's the absolute last thing I want to see, the fact that the majority of his teammates did it should mean absolutely nothing except they are selfish pric*s.
At the same time I see that that could be a possibility of happening if we really antagonize Bogut (think CB last summer) with a complete lowball offer. Without doubt one of Bogut's biggest assets to this team is his 'team' play, take away some passing and some effort on defense then add in some more points and rebounds and he's not nearly the same all around player to us, although ironically it will most likely earn him more money.

That's why I'm saying just offer him what he's worth and move on, avoid drama where there doesn't need to be any. Bogut has repeatedly implied he doesn't play for the money and would take less money than he might be worth to win - put your money where his mouth is Hammond and offer him $11-12M per. Get it done.

[LUKE23]

Here is the problem that I see..If I am Bogut I am hard pressed to take less than Dalembert or what Okafur gets, if they offer less, then fine I'll play out the year. If I am playing for a contract year I am going to be extremely concerned about my numbers, which means a hell of alot less passing and alot more emphasis on scoring. This board and fanbase has always undervalued him, if the Bucks do the same thing, I hope he follows Okafur's lead and does what he has do to to get paid....which is what the majority of his teammates did.

This makes no sense unless you're a Bogut fan over a Bucks fan. I'm a Bucks fan. I want Bogut signed, but I want it for the least amount possible over the next 5-6 seasons. There is absolutely zero reason a fan of this team would want a player to "get his". What other players did is irrelevant.

That is the NBA way, all players do it...I am just saying it is what will happen. What NBA player, or Bucks for that reason did not play in his final cotract year to get his? It is really the same in the MLB look at Ben Sheets....you don't think Prince and Corey are going to get theres in there walk year?

You're missing the point. You're saying you hope Bogut does this and that to get his. As a Bucks fan, you should want us to get players signed for the least amount possible. If you're just a Bogut flunkie, then you'd be rooting for Bogut to make more money.

[europa]

By all accounts, the Bell negotiations were mucked up when Kohl's Cronies got involved. As long as Hammond continues to have control that shouldn't occur with Bogut or anyone else going forward.

[LUKE23]

It's easily in the Bucks favor of the risk/reward spectrum to give him $1.5M more per year (going off the Kaman deal for reference) THIS OFFSEASON, then to have him play in a contract year and go to restricted free agency. Think about it for a second.