Brand vs bogut

[Chapter29]

A bit of an unknown here.

For starters Bogut is young and still improving and Brand had a fairly serious injury and has yet to prove himself. A risky contract for the Sixers.

With that said, Brand if healthy is obviously better right now and likely will when its all said and done have a better career. Very very likely.

Did I read that Brand is super athletic? Yeah, ok. If any player can rebound from an Achilles injury its a player of his nature.

I like Bogut and feel that he has plenty of upside, but given his unselfishness (a double edged sword) he will likely never see the numbers that Brand has become accustomed too.

I'll stick with Bogut and his contract as the safe bet, but perhaps in the end the wrong choice.

[dunhill]

Even as a Bogut fan I take Brand IF he is 100% for the full 5 seasons and plays at least 70 games every year. I very much doubt that he'll be at his best until at least 1/2 way through this season though if not until next season. Historically most guys take a year or so to get back to their best though after a full year off (tim Hardaway and his ACL, Kmart and his knees). I can't really recall anyone being All-pro their first year back. But if he is ready and is back to his previous playing level I can't really say no to his proven track record. But I sincerely think he'll take a while to get into game shape.

[AussieBuck]

Brand for me at least until the end of his contract. Short memories here, the guy was an MVP candidate not that long ago.

[dunhill]

Yeah but I really couldn't think of a more debilitating injury like an achilles tear for any athlete let alone a basketball player who relies on a lot of jumping and agility. Think about his claim to fame: rebounding and low post scoring. If he can't get the lift then those two strengths are severely compromised. It's a massive risk

[AussieBuck]

Yeah but I really couldn't think of a more debilitating injury like an achilles tear for any athlete let alone a basketball player who relies on a lot of jumping and agility. Think about his claim to fame: rebounding and low post scoring. If he can't get the lift then those two strengths are severely compromised. It's a massive risk

He is basically the same size as Bogut with his hands in the air. (As they happen be when scoring and rebbounding.) Brand will enter next season more athletic than Bogut or even Duncan for that matter.

[dunhill]

Put it this way - a lot of professional athletes who have an achilles tear retire or fear their career is over. Even if he has a 7'4 wingspan. If he can only get off the ground 5 inches or he can't get up in the air as quickly and most PF are the same size but can get up 10inches how's he going to get his shots off/contest rebounds? He's going to be at a massive disadvatage. That's how debilitating it is. Now you add the wear and tear of an 82 game season, his age, the fact that he more than likely will take a while to get into game conditioning ( likely but still an if) the physicality of his position, his price. And it's not clear cut. He could be market value at 82mil in a best case scenario. He could turn into just a solid player at 15/10 then he's overpaid badly, worst case is he can't perform after 3 seasons and the 76ers are on the hook for 80-90% of his salary.

[AussieBuck]

I saw him play at the end of last season and he looked rusty from the year off but otherwise fine. I doubt I would've won my Yahoo league without him!

[magpies]

I choose Bogut only due to the fact his age and he has not had the injures that Brand has had.
Brand was outstanding in his first three years but this is due to a couple of factors

Mainly Brand was needed, we were lucky to get the number one pick and the other reason it was decided that Brand was the number one scoring option in his first years while Bogut has never been that option

[randy84]

Didn't Brand play at the end of last year? I know he missed most of the year, but I believe he came back last year and played the final eight games.

I think he actually had a couple of doubles doubles in those eight games. So to worry that it may take him a year to recover is a little overboard since he had most of the year off.

[Wise1]

Bogut on youth and potential.

[Bernman]

8 games when everybody is coasting......that's a huge sample to ascertain he's still the same player.

It's also not enough of a sample to learn if his Achilles is even remotely durable. Achilles tears are extremely tenuous injuries. And anybody remember when Bryant Westbrook looked like he was on the road to recovery with the Packers, after blowing one Achilles, only to blow the other one? If one limb is weakened you tend to favor the other one which can lead to re-injury. Brand does rely on explosiveness to dunk around the hoop, so he's going to be putting a lot of pressure on his Achilles, taking off and landing.

You can't say IF I know Brand is 100 percent healthy, I take him. As of when the contracts were offered by Philly and Golden State, they didn't know he was healthy just like you didn't. Therefore, it's a huge risk to guarantee him 82 or 90 million dollars.

That's not to mention he projects as a vet's minimum-MLE level player in the last year or two of his contract. That's what former all-stars in their mid 30's receive on the open market. So they're losing money on the back end.

Bogut at the very least projects to maintain his level, and he could dramatically improve by translating the mid-range game and free throw shooting he exhibited in college and international ball. Imagine the world of opportunities he'd open up considering he has a handle and great court vision as well. Maybe an even better version of Jack Sikma.

Bogut is the better value.

[REDDzone]

So for those of you who are going for Brand, you guys would be okay with giving a guy 82 million dollars who has only played 10ish games the past year and couple months?

[paul]

So for those of you who are going for Brand, you guys would be okay with giving a guy 82 million dollars who has only played 10ish games the past year and couple months?

Agreed its a lot of cash and a long time for a guy who's 29 and coming off a serious injury. Brand healthy is easily the better player (Brand healthy is one of the best in the league) but the question isn't who's the best player, the question is on contract value. As someone said earlier you take Brand for the first couple of years, but I know who I'd rather out of Bogut at 28 earning $12m or Brand at 34 earning $20m.

[REDDzone]

Brand could end up being the piece that takes a Philly team already on the rise and makes them a contender.

Or he could end up being the Jermaine O'neal of the Sixers, a guy with a lot of miles, injuries, and money owed.

I hope its the latter for the sake of the Bucks, even though I always loved Brand's game. I think a guy with a similar approach to the game as Brand would be ideal for the Bucks actually (although it would have to be an extremely poor man's version, if we want to be realistic).

[bucks59]

I really dont think this is even close. If Brand returns 100%, he is a legit 20-10 guy who plays great defense. While he is 29, big men age better than other players and Brand seems like th type of player that will age better.

I also think he will be fine. He doesnt have a history of injury problems and on top of that he looked fine at the end of the year. Sure its a small sample size, but if there was something to worry about, his numbers should have been way worse. Even in those 8 games he played, granted its 8 games, he still put up better stats than Bogut. Bogut's best year, and granted he has only been in the league 3 years, was 14 and 10. Yes he is young and has potential, but you roll the dice on Brand even if you get nothing out of him just for the risk that he returns as the player he used to be.

Even if he doesnt return to 100%, I still take Brand. Brand at 70% plus agining might still better than Bogut at the end of the day.

Brand has been a consistent 20-10 guy since he came into the league and until the injury, he showed no signs of slowing down. Bogut hasn't even come close to that yet and there is a good chance he never will.

Also, if Brand is willing to take less money, though its only a rumor and its only slightly less, he must feel fine. He could have stayed with the Clips and made more, granted only slightly more.

[paul]

I really dont think this is even close. If Brand returns 100%, he is a legit 20-10 guy who plays great defense. While he is 29, big men age better than other players and Brand seems like th type of player that will age better.

I also think he will be fine. He doesnt have a history of injury problems and on top of that he looked fine at the end of the year. Sure its a small sample size, but if there was something to worry about, his numbers should have been way worse. Even in those 8 games he played, granted its 8 games, he still put up better stats than Bogut. Bogut's best year, and granted he has only been in the league 3 years, was 14 and 10. Yes he is young and has potential, but you roll the dice on Brand even if you get nothing out of him just for the risk that he returns as the player he used to be.

Even if he doesnt return to 100%, I still take Brand. Brand at 70% plus agining might still better than Bogut at the end of the day.

Brand has been a consistent 20-10 guy since he came into the league and until the injury, he showed no signs of slowing down. Bogut hasn't even come close to that yet and there is a good chance he never will.

Also, if Brand is willing to take less money, though its only a rumor and its only slightly less, he must feel fine. He could have stayed with the Clips and made more, granted only slightly more.

Again this isn't a Brand Vs Bogut straight up as players question as I understand it - of course Brand wins that easily. The contract question makes it far closer though imo, Brand at 34 at $20m is a sizeable risk, if he's playing for example like or worse than Shaq is now with injury or without then he will absolutely kill a team's cap, whereas Bogut at 28 and $12m has virtually no risk attached to it imo.

[ClassicJack]

Neither guy can be the best player on a championship team and Brand is getting paid like one while Bogut is significantly younger and cheaper, not to mention he's not coming off a devastating injury. Brand is probably still better than Bogut will ever be but you gotta go with Bogut here.

[AussieBuck]

Neither guy can be the best player on a championship team and Brand is getting paid like one while Bogut is significantly younger and cheaper, not to mention he's not coming off a devastating injury. Brand is probably still better than Bogut will ever be but you gotta go with Bogut here.

60 million is a lot for a guy in a suit who can pass isn't it?

[DH34Phan]

Again this isn't a Brand Vs Bogut straight up as players question as I understand it - of course Brand wins that easily. The contract question makes it far closer though imo, Brand at 34 at $20m is a sizeable risk, if he's playing for example like or worse than Shaq is now with injury or without then he will absolutely kill a team's cap, whereas Bogut at 28 and $12m has virtually no risk attached to it imo.

I would take Brand for sure for the next 3 years, and even if he starts declining in year 4, his expiring contract will be worth more than Bogut's.

[trwi7]

Neither guy can be the best player on a championship team and Brand is getting paid like one while Bogut is significantly younger and cheaper, not to mention he's not coming off a devastating injury. Brand is probably still better than Bogut will ever be but you gotta go with Bogut here.

60 million is a lot for a guy in a suit who can pass isn't it?

How can he pass when he's still holding his resumé?