Game Thread:Bucks v. Pistons 5pm CST tonight

[fam3381]

Can anyone tell me a time that a guy had an average NCAA career and was slotted to go 2nd round, then because he showed some athleticism in the workouts jumped up to a lotto pick and the guy actually turned out to be worthy of that pick?

I don't think Alexander really qualifies as an "average" college player, and I'm not sure how many people matching your description have been drafted in the lottery period, busts or not.

An average player doesn't make the All Big East first team or lead his team to the Sweet 16 IMO. He had to be producing on the court to do those things. He certainly wasn't an off-the-charts producer, but definitely above average.

He was a late bloomer, but we're not talking about a guy who put up 10/6 his junior year or something. If not being great as a frosh/soph automatically make you average, then I guess he would be. But I don't think it's unheard of for some players to develop a little later than others. Al Thornton basically put up Alexander's numbers as a junior before going back to school for his senior season.

Look at any of the more detailed statistical comparisons of this years prospects--which don't consider workout performance or vertical measurements--and he's right there with the other lottery talent. Hollinger's system, which factors in age and height in addition to stats, actually rated him higher than any other wing player, including Mayo, Westbrook, Gordon, and Randolph.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... ter-080622

[BuckFan25226]

Oh and while people continue to post without facts, Alexander shot a TOTAL of 41 3 pointers last season, in 36 games. He's taken one three TOTAL in two SL games. But yes, we are all very worried about him "parking it out there like CV".

That is one thing I am not worried about, I compare him more to D Mase than CV.

After that comment, it's clear you have never seen Alexander play.

[LUKE23]

Just another factoid to throw out there for the people who like statistical analysis that tries to predict NBA success, Alexander tested out well in both Hollinger's and DX's systems.

Hollinger:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... ter-080622

Dwyane Wade 17.81 2003
Carmelo Anthony 17.38 2003
Luol Deng 16.71 2004
Rudy Gay 16.21 2006
Julian Wright 15.86 2007
Rashad McCants 15.41 2005
Andre Iguodala 15.16 2004
Danny Granger 14.55 2005
Shawne Williams 14.37 2006
Josh Howard 14.31 2003

Alexander tested out at 14.58, slightly above Josh Howard and Danny Granger in this system. Looking at the list of top wings since 2002, there are zero sure fire busts in there, just a few wait and see guys (Williams, Wright, McCants) and then star and superstar players.

DX:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jus ... Crop-2928/

Alexander here with relation to PER was ranked ahead of Gallinari, Greene, and Rush, so ranked as the top SF of the guys considered in the lottery. With regards to WinScore, he ranked slightly behind Rush, behind Gallinari, and ahead of Greene.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/200 ... view-2932/

For OVERALL players WinScore, Alexander tested out better than Mayo, Bayless, Augustin, Randolph, Westbrook, Gordon, Lopez, Greene, and behind Rose, Love, Beasley, Gallinari, Speights of the guys that were projected in the lottery.

I'm not saying this means anything, just giving some analysis on the Alexander pick vs. the people who are all freaking out about other players having two really good SL games and Alexander having a terrible game and just a solid game.

[fam3381]

I think Joe has a better chance of being a perimeter player than Des simply because he doesn't shoot like he's disabled, but FWIW Desmond actually shot the ball well in college. He made 130/349 career threes in college including 43% from distance and 77% from the line as a senior.

The problem was the form on his shot made him ill-suited to stretching out to NBA distance, and somewhere along the line he strangely lost confidence in his shot from the FT line, too. And now he's got even uglier mechanics than previously. That's obviously not typical.

I also take some comfort in Joe's 81% shooting from the line last year. It's difficult to say if he'll ever be a reliable three point shooter, but he does appear to have some touch. Tough to fake 81% from the line over a fairly large sample size.

[BuckFan25226]

I think Joe has a better chance of being a perimeter player than Des simply because he doesn't shoot like he's disabled, but FWIW Desmond actually shot the ball well in college. He made 130/349 career threes in college including 43% from distance and 77% from the line as a senior.

The problem was the form on his shot made him ill-suited to stretching out to NBA distance, and somewhere along the line he strangely lost confidence in his shot from the FT line, too. And now he's got even uglier mechanics than previously. That's obviously not typical.

I also take some comfort in Joe's 81% shooting from the line last year. It's difficult to say if he'll ever be a reliable three point shooter, but he does appear to have some touch. Tough to fake 81% from the line over a fairly large sample size.

Dez was one of my favorite college players. He actually had a nice mid range jumper in college. And like you said, he was productive from 3. Then after his first few years in the NBA, everything went down hill.

[rilamann]

Reading some of these posts im scratching my head and trying to figure out if some of you are being serious or trying to be sarcastic/funny.

Some of you guys need to calm down and not put so much stock in the summer league.JA was worthy of the 8th pick,if he wasnt Hammond wouldnt have taken him with that 8th pick its as simple as that.

[Profound23]

I have seen Joe play.......and yes he has a better form than DMase when it comes to jump shots, but my point being he will be a high energy player similar to DMason. Far from a BUST.....but there will be a few players that were drafted after him who become border line allstars while Joe is a role player.

Not a huge deal, everyone needs role players who can come in block some shots, get a few dunks (and aren't making 6 mil a year ala Gadz) but I don't like passing up players who are more than likely going to be better AND fill more of a need for us.

[rilamann]

I have seen Joe play.......and yes he has a better form than DMase when it comes to jump shots, but my point being he will be a high energy player similar to DMason. Far from a BUST.....but there will be a few players that were drafted after him who become border line allstars while Joe is a role player.

Not a huge deal, everyone needs role players who can come in block some shots, get a few dunks (and aren't making 6 mil a year ala Gadz) but I don't like passing up players who are more than likely going to be better AND fill more of a need for us.

The Bucks needed a player like Joe Alexander in the worst way,we can't just have flashy scorers on the team (dont tell that to LH) or guys who need the ball to do ''other things''.

Joe is a hustle guy but hes not a typical hustle guy in the sense that hes going to be a guy who sits on the bench and goes in for a couple minutes when the team needs a quick shot of energy.The guy can play at a high level for extened minutes but hes in the mold of a hustle type player.

Like I said I think JA is exactly the kind of player the Bucks need (badly) at this point in time and Hammond & Skiles must have felt the same way.

JA is the type of guy who maybe wont fill up the box score but could have a bigger more positive impact on the game than a guy who goes out and scores 25/30 pts but doesnt do much else.

To me the Bucks picking JA was a breath of fresh air after what we've gone though the last few years with LH.

[El Duderino]

I have seen Joe play.......and yes he has a better form than DMase when it comes to jump shots, but my point being he will be a high energy player similar to DMason. Far from a BUST.....but there will be a few players that were drafted after him who become border line allstars while Joe is a role player.

Not a huge deal, everyone needs role players who can come in block some shots, get a few dunks (and aren't making 6 mil a year ala Gadz) but I don't like passing up players who are more than likely going to be better AND fill more of a need for us.

The Bucks needed a player like Joe Alexander in the worst way,we can't just have flashy scorers on the team (dont tell that to LH) or guys who need the ball to do ''other things''.

Joe is a hustle guy but hes not a typical hustle guy in the sense that hes going to be a guy who sits on the bench and goes in for a couple minutes when the team needs a quick shot of energy.The guy can play at a high level for extened minutes but hes in the mold of a hustle type player.

Like I said I think JA is exactly the kind of player the Bucks need (badly) at this point in time and Hammond & Skiles must have felt the same way.

JA is the type of guy who maybe wont fill up the box score but could have a bigger more positive impact on the game than a guy who goes out and scores 25/30 pts but doesnt do much else.

To me the Bucks picking JA was a breath of fresh air after what we've gone though the last few years with LH.

I have a lot higher expectations for Alexander than what you describe and i sure hope the Bucks do also. What you described is what i'd hope to see from our second round pick, not from Alexander.

[DanoMac]

We should probably wait until Joe actually plays against NBA action before deciding his career fate...

[europa]

We should probably wait until Joe actually plays against NBA action before deciding his career fate...

That's just silly. I think we should have a 30-page thread blasting the hell out of him when he plays badly in a Summer League and a much shorter thread when he plays well with most of the people who criticized him in the first thread staying curiously quiet in this one. That's clearly much more fun.

[steger_3434]

We should probably wait until Joe actually plays against NBA action before deciding his career fate...

That's just silly. I think we should have a 30-page thread blasting the hell out of him when he plays badly in a Summer League and a much shorter thread when he plays well with most of the people who criticized him in the first thread staying curiously quiet in this one. That's clearly much more fun.

Well, it did take almost 4 days to get that thread to 30 pages. This has only been one day and it's already at 19 so I'd say it's getting the same pub. Anyways, it's good to see him have a good game.

[europa]

We should probably wait until Joe actually plays against NBA action before deciding his career fate...

That's just silly. I think we should have a 30-page thread blasting the hell out of him when he plays badly in a Summer League and a much shorter thread when he plays well with most of the people who criticized him in the first thread staying curiously quiet in this one. That's clearly much more fun.

Well, it did take almost 4 days to get that thread to 30 pages. This has only been one day and it's already at 19 so I'd say it's getting the same pub. Anyways, it's good to see him have a good game.

I'm just having some fun. I have no idea how good Alexander will or won't be. I need to see more of him before I can form a strong opinion one way or the other. I just thought the other thread had some ... overreaction. I thought he looked good yesterday. Not great and he has some areas that he needs to work on (specifically rebounding), but I thought he was composed, played smart and made a number of good plays.

[Bernman]

Profound has already admitted bias against big white American players, so I think the board should take most of his own personal assessments of Joe's abilities with a grain of salt.

One individual statement Profound made however, which received unfair criticism by xTitan and others, was the assertion that Joe Alexander was closer to Desmond Mason than Villanueva.

First, height wise Alexander is closer to Dez than Villanueva. DX reports that Desmond Mason actually measured 6'6" barefoot at the pre-draft camp. Alexander was just 1 inch taller at 6'7". Villanueva measured 2 inches taller than Joe at 6'9".

Second, Alexander is more in Mason's stratosphere when it comes to ball-handling. Villa can play on the perimeter because of his handle, he isn't resigned to dribbling in a straight line, he can ran breaks and find the open man, etc. Both Alexander and Mason are 1-2 dribble players in the halfcourt who are limited to going in a straight line until they run into resistance, where they'll either stop, go through their man, or over him.

Third, Alexander shooting tendencies are closer to Mason's. While Alexander has a prettier form than Mason, they both are very mechanical, stiff, shoot high on their head, and try to jump as high as possible so they'll be difficult to block. I don't particularly care what Mason did in college because the alterations in his game from college to the pros were unforeseeable. He regressed from a capable outside shooter in college, to adept at mid-range til 2005 or so, to having any semblance of a jumper whatsoever today. Probably because he built his upper body til it became cumbersome and could never regain his confidence even when he lost his weight. Alexander's jumper in terms of efficiency today stands where Dez' was most of his NBA career. Villanueva is a guy with a fluid, almost textbook shooting stroke, who drifts further away from the basket than Joe, but he struggles with consistency because of his height.

Fourth, Joe rebounds more on effort and athleticism like Mason, whereas Villanueva relies on height and savvy. Villanueva's 12 rebounds per 48 is far superior to what Joe will ever accomplish, but Dez' 9 per 48 is attainable.

Fifth, Joe plays above the rim like Dez, and can be explosive and quick to the basket on cuts and oops. Villanueva is a below the rim player for the most part, outside of the occasional facial.

Finally, Alexander is much more comparable to Dez on defense. They both play with effort and have the athleticism to keep in front of their men. The only difference is Dez gets really low and thus actually does stay in front of his man while being shot over, while Alexander plays upright and gets a lot of blocks however lets his man penetrate because of a high center of gravity.

There are a lot of parallels between Alexander and early Desmond Mason. If he doesn't suffer as big of a decline as Dez, that wouldn't be that terrible of a draft pick.

[REDDzone]

I agree Bern, I see a lot of D-Mase in Alexander.

I was kind of shocked to see so much criticism of Profound's assertion, think Dez of a few years ago people, not current day Desmond.

[europa]

At his best, Dez was a solid starter in the NBA. At one time he was viewed as a rising talent with star potential. That obviously didn't come to fruition but Dez was a good starter in Seattle and during his first stint with the Bucks. If the Bucks get a solid starter out of the 8th pick in this draft I think they will have done well.

[paulpressey25]

Here's where the reaction or over-reaction on the other thread came from. Did we need this guy compared to what we could have gotten? Will Joe give us that much more than if we had just allocated his rookie contract to Ersan? Or signed Ryan Gomes to an equivalent RFA offer sheet?

In the meantime, here's a blurb on Summer League from ESPN:

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: Jerryd Bayless, Blazers
In both of the games he has played, he has been the best player on the court and it hasn't been close. Using his speed and exceptional handle to set up defenders, the combo guard has made a living at the charity stripe, attempting a two-game total of 39 freebies (making 31). He followed up his 28-point, four-rebound debut against the Wizards by hanging 26 and six on the Kings.

I don't want to hear all the garbage about how more FT's are shot in summer league so this doesn't matter, blah, blah, blah. Getting to the line 39 TIMES in two games is an outstanding feat. If the "Mike Wilks" of the world could do this in summer league, they would have done so in an effort to win a job with someone.

People can rip on Bayless for his height, but you know this board would be sky high right now if we had the sense to draft him and then figure out a trade for Mo.

[europa]

Bayless can definitely score so it's no surprise he's tearing it up in SL play. Whether he can play the point and defend at the NBA level are two rather significant questions and ones (especially the former) that resulted in Bayless falling as far as he did in the draft. As I've said, I wouldn't have had a problem if the Bucks took him but the only guy taken after Alexander I really wanted was Rush. I think if there's a guy teams will end up regretting they passed on, it'll be him and I wouldn't be surprised if the Pacers get another steal in Rush the same way they got one in Granger. In the meantime, I'm fine with Alexander and seeing what he can become.

[paulpressey25]

Whether he can play the point and defend at the NBA level are two rather significant questions and ones (especially the former) that resulted in Bayless falling as far as he did in the draft..

Let's say Bayless becomes Monta Eliis. A guy with deficiencies but someone who at a minimum is an elite, elite sixth-man. Would you rather have Bayless or Alexander right now under that scenario?

[Wade-A-Holic]

I'm officially beginning a study linking summer league performance to NBA regular season production.