Milwaukee Bucks - Evaluation Sheet

LUKE23 · Post #141 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:57 pm

He had ONE bad month in regards to TO, and that was April (3.3 TO). In January he was 16.7/9.7 with 2.4 TO (12.0 FGA). In February he was 14.5/10 with only 1.6 TO (13.7 FGA). In March he was 15.7/11.4 with only 1.9 TO (13.2 FGA). But shocking you would bring up the last month as evidence that he will struggle in that area all of next season. He was UNDER his season average TO's for two out of last three months, even with more FGA than his season average.

It's a very abstract argument you're using as to why you think Bogut won't see more touches on the block. It's also an argument that is not really backed by the numbers.

midranger · Post #142 » by **midranger** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 6:59 pm

Less abstract argument:

Bogut is not very good with the ball on the block, therefore he will not receive it there very much.

Is that concrete enough?

LUKE23 · Post #143 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:02 pm

midranger wrote:Less abstract argument:

Bogut is not very good with the ball on the block, therefore he will not receive it there very much.

Is that concrete enough?

It's concrete, it's just not accurate. He will see the ball plenty there this season and he will have more FGA than last year.

midranger · Post #144 » by **midranger** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:10 pm

True, I mean, Bogut's True Shooting Percentage was 32nd among centers and 163rd overall in the NBA.

He's great in the post.

Post #145 » by **ReasonablySober** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:15 pm

If...

- Bogut learns another couple moves around the hoop
- he can consistently hit the 10-15 footer
- becomes better at passing out of the double
- ups his FT% considerably

then give him all the shots he wants. I'm not sure any of the above is going to happen with him dedicating his offseason to his Olympic team.

LUKE23 · Post #146 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:16 pm

His ADJ FG% was 53rd in the NBA (so top third of NBA starters), tied with Melo Anthony, at .511. And that is with him being a horrible FT shooter. If he can improve that whatsoever, he's in the top 40.

For reference, both Redd and RJ were at .495, even with their significantly higher FTM totals.

midranger · Post #147 » by **midranger** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:19 pm

DrugBust wrote:If...

- Bogut learns another couple moves around the hoop
- he can consistently hit the 10-15 footer
- becomes better at passing out of the double
- ups his FT% considerably

then give him all the shots he wants. I'm not sure any of the above is going to happen with him dedicating his offseason to his Olympic team.

This is my thinking as well.

I have nothing against Bogut getting shots if he improves. However, right now he just isn't a good offensive option.

midranger · Post #148 » by **midranger** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:23 pm

LUKE23 wrote:His ADJ FG% was 53rd in the NBA (so top third of NBA starters), tied with Melo Anthony, at .511. And that is with him being a horrible FT shooter. If he can improve that whatsoever, he's in the top 40.

For reference, both Redd and RJ were at .495, even with their significantly higher FTM totals.

And that's why you shouldn't use adjusted FG% to assess his offensive efficiency.

Post #149 » by **ReasonablySober** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:26 pm

midranger wrote:This is my thinking as well.

I have nothing against Bogut getting shots if he improves. However, right now he just isn't a good offensive option.

Not only that, but we're talking about Redd, Ridnour and Jefferson being his teammates. None of those guys have ever played with an effective post player. Ridnour's played exclusively with perimeter oriented scorers like Allen, Lewis and Durant. Same with Jefferson playing with VC and Kidd. Hell, Skiles had Curry for a season, yes. But he's also more accustomed to perimeter based jump shooting teams.

These guys are expected to seamlessly integrate a big man who's only effective five feet from the hoop?

Post #150 » by **paulpressey25** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:30 pm

I don't agree with Mid and Drugbust that somehow Bogut shooting a lot is a big liability. I really like it.

But I do agree with Mid noting Bogut's trouble passing out of double teams. For a guy with good hands and as good a passer as he's supposed to be, he was really bad passing out of double teams last year. It surprised me.

He's great passing in a single team situation, but crumbles in the double team.

LUKE23 · Post #151 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:35 pm

These guys are expected to seamlessly integrate a big man who's only effective five feet from the hoop?

Umm, I would hope so. They are all NBA veterans. I don't think they are robots that cannot adjust to making a post entry pass. Come on man.

Bogut is going to get the ball this year. In fact, (and you can argue whether it was the right or wrong move in another thread), I believe it's one of the primary reasons that Mo was moved for a guy like Ridnour. Shift more of the scoring to closer proximity (Redd/RJ both get to the line a lot by attacking the rim + almost all of Bogut's shots were within the proximity of the hoop).

fam3381 · Post #152 » by **fam3381** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:07 pm

LUKE23 wrote:His ADJ FG% was 53rd in the NBA (so top third of NBA starters), tied with Melo Anthony, at .511. And that is with him being a horrible FT shooter. If he can improve that whatsoever, he's in the top 40.

For reference, both Redd and RJ were at .495, even with their significantly higher FTM totals.

I think you're mixing up TS% and eFG%. Adjusted fg% doesn't factor in FTs at all, it's just a weighted average of 2s and 3s, which is why Bogut (who made no threes) had the same eFG% and standard FG%.

TS% factors in free throws which makes it a better gauge of offensive efficiency. Bogut dropped off a bit in that regard last season (53.2% vs. 56.6% in 06/07) but he became more efficient from January on (54.2%). So Bogut wasn't very efficient overall last year, but he became more efficient when he started getting more shots. That's somewhat counterintuitive, but I'd guess it's mostly because he was uncharacteristically bad in the first couple months of the season. His monthly TS% last year bounced around notably last year:

Nov: 54.5
Dec: 49.9
Jan: 57.8
Feb: 47.3
Mar: 51.0
Apr: 59.7

Ironically his worst month TS%-wise happened to be the month where he had his best monthly FT% of his career (71%).

Sigra · Post #153 » by **Sigra** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:14 pm

Midranger and Drugbust just love to be wrong. And love to be sad. They are already sad that their hero is traded and now they are going to be sad when their object of hate gets all that shoots. Great times

Post #154 » by **ReasonablySober** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:27 pm

Sigra wrote:Midranger and Drugbust just love to be wrong. And love to be sad. They are already sad that their hero is traded and now they are going to be sad when their object of hate gets all that shoots. Great times

If he shoots 12-14 FGA per game and the Bucks win 45 games I'll be thrilled. I just think that those expecting that to be the case are sorely mistaken is all.

LUKE23 · Post #155 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:36 pm

DrugBust wrote:
Sigra wrote:Midranger and Drugbust just love to be wrong. And love to be sad. They are already sad that their hero is traded and now they are going to be sad when their object of hate gets all that shoots. Great times

If he shoots 12-14 FGA per game and the Bucks win 45 games I'll be thrilled. I just think that those expecting that to be the case are sorely mistaken is all.

They might not win 45, but if they don't Bogut will be low on the list of reasons. And assuming he gets the same minutes as last year, which I see no reason he shouldn't, he will get more shots than last year.

More likely suspects are poor defense in three of the five starting spots and lack of offensive bench production if we fail to make the playoffs/win 45.

Sigra · Post #156 » by **Sigra** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:39 pm

My most likely suspects are injuries to Redd and/or RJ and/or Bogut. I already said that if those 3 are healthy for entire season then I guarantee playoffs.

Post #157 » by **ReasonablySober** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 8:56 pm

I still haven't heard a legit reason to expect him to get more shots this season. We're replacing...

Mason (8 FGA/G) with Jefferson (16.2 FGA/G)
Yi (8.7 starting) with Villanueva (13.7 starting)
Mo (13.9 starting last year) with Ridnour (9.7 career starting)

And we still have Redd, who without Williams may actually shoot more.

Despite any lip-service to the contrary, I'm willing to bet Bogut's going to be looked at to score less.

LUKE23 · Post #158 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:03 pm

I still haven't heard a legit reason to expect him to get more shots this season. We're replacing...

Mason (8 FGA/G) with Jefferson (16.2 FGA/G)
Yi (8.7 starting) with Villanueva (13.7 starting)
Mo (13.9 starting last year) with Ridnour (9.7 career starting)

And we still have Redd, who without Williams may actually shoot more.

Despite any lip-service to the contrary, I'm willing to bet Bogut's going to be looked at to score less

1. Better Pace Factor = more team FGA.
2. Coaching. Shoot whenver you want with no consequences offense will not be tolerated. Bogut will be a focus of the offense.
3. Less bench scoring options than last year.

I'd say a good estimate for team FGA next year is 85 per game. I'd be interested to see how people think those will break down.

Post #159 » by **ReasonablySober** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:16 pm

Four teams averaged at least 85 per game last season: GS, Den, Sea, Ind. None have what you would consider a true, back to the basket center.

Those that do have that type of player that we expect Bogut to be, and one that took a lot of shots, all rank near the bottom of the league in FGA per game. I'm talking about SA (28th), LAC (27th) and Orlando (26th). The Rockets were on their way towards the bottom of the league in that department until Yao got hurt, and they ended up 14th.

85 is unrealistic unless you see Bogut cutting his shots significantly.

LUKE23 · Post #160 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Aug 29, 2008 9:22 pm

I disagree, because Bogut can play in a fast-paced system. He is very good in quick offense where he seals his man before team defense gets set. It's not like he's a Muresan-type where if we run fast-paced offense he's going to be dragging his ass behind.

I will be shocked if Bogut doesn't get more than 11.7 FGA this year.