STATE OF THE BLACKHAWKS 3-22-22
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 6:58 pm
State of the Blackhawks
3-23-22
What’s just happened: Hired GM Kyle Davidson whom has just completed his first trade deadline:
Traded: LW Brandon Hagel, G Marc-Andre Fleury, and C Ryan Carpenter, 2022 4th, and 2024 4th
Received: LW Taylor Raddysh, RW Boris Katchouk, 2023 1st (TBL), 2024 1st (TBL), 2024 5th (CAL), 2022 conditional 1st (MIN) - becomes 2nd if Wild don’t reach conf. finals with Fleury winning 50% of wins.
My take: Davidson said re-build and that’s exactly what he has started. We got 2 everyday NHL wings with a middle 6 scorer and a bottom 6 depth piece. The big part of this are the 3 picks. Most likely is that each of the 1sts is in that 22-32 range and the Minnesota pick is at best #29 and at worst # 59 so it’s likely to be a 50/50 prospect to make the league. Still, it was FREE so let’s not be upset at that.
Current Roster and contracts:
UFAs: D De Haan, C Lafferty, D Gustafson, G Lankanen, G Delia
RFAs: C Strome, RW Kubalik, C Dach, LW Johnson, LW Kurashev, D C Jones
My take: A ton of work is ahead for Davidson on these players. Let’s get the easy ones off the table… D De Haan, D Gustafson, G Delia should all walk away.
After those 3 though there will be many tough conversations: #1 is Strome. He went from mid round pick trade to worth his QO of 3.7m to now I believe a final bridge deal of around 2/8. I also really like Lafferty as a 3rd line staple and think a 2/2.5 is exactly what he deserves. Lankanen is pretty much our only NHL goaltender so a prove it deal is a must at around 2.25 is what I think should be offered. 2/4.5 for me.
Some of the RFAs will be difficult; namely Kubalik. He isn’t worth his QO 4m so will have to decline and then be open market or trade his rights window. If someone trades a 4th for him and then they decline and give him a 2/5 then I think someone will do that. That’s what I think will happen. Recoup a 4th and move on. Dach needs a worth while bridge deal I’d say 3/9 which is what he has played like. Kurashev similar position I’d say 2/2.2. Caleb Jones should just get a 1/900k as a 7-8th D man. Reese Johnson is likely a depth fringe nhl 1 year min.
So to recap:
Leaving: De Haan, Gustafson, Delia, Kubalik
Deals: Strome (2/8), Dach (3/9), Lankanen (2/4.5), Lafferty (2/2.5), Kurashev (2/2.2), C Jones (1/900k), Johnson (1/780k)
In free agency: Spend 0 money outside of a 1 year deal. That should be an absolute here. Only guys that could have deadline value like we did with Janmark type of deals…
Under contract:
RW Kane (1/10.5)
C Toews (1/10.5)
C Khaira (1/975k)
LW DeBrincat (1/6.8-RFA)
C Borgstrom (1/1 - RFA)
Thoughts: Kane should get a 2-3 year extension in that 8.5-9.5 range) Let’s just make 8.88 x3 for fun. Toews on the other hand I think this will be his final year as a hawk and maybe in NHL. DeBrincat should get a raise as well. I think he is about a 8.5m player and at 5-6 years but of course it’s NHL so I think it will be a 7x9 when it’s all done. Borgstrom has a make or break year ahead so I’d say this will be his final Hawk year. Khaira likely to leave as well.
RW Entwistle (2/800k - RFA)
RW Raddysh (2/760k - RFA)
LW Katchouk (2/760k - RFA)
D Vlasic (2/760k - RFA)
D Stillman (2/1.35 - RFA)
C Johnson (2/5m)
D McCabe (3/12m)
D Murphy (4/17.6)
D S Jones (8/76m)
This is where it gets “oh boy” as our 3 top Dmen are all late 20s and paid a lot for a long time. McCabe has played his best hockey in the last 5-6 games but is still a bit behind the play. Murphy was having a down year before his injury. Jones, while a good top 4 guy with clear #1 PP point skill, is not worth his deal. Only Makar and Hedman are worth that deal. Jones is more like a 5x7.75 type of player for me. It will be a deal that if we can should be moved before he hits 30.
Prospects:
Like all teams, the Hawks prospects are all over the world: Europe, Canadian/US leagues, and college players. Here are the ones I think actually have an NHL future in order:
1. C Lukas Reichel - Still just 19 and playing great in Rockford. There is zero need to rush him so I think keeping his status this year is important. Next season at 20 we should ease him in 25-30games split time and then 23-24 finally bring him on fully at 21.
2. G Drew Commesso - The Hawks do NOT have a #2 prospect in tow. I have Commesso here because that’s how important his development is. He should take a lot of time to mature too… 1 more year at Boston and then at least 1.5 years in the A before a trial and then by 23 get a full shot at the big club.
3. D Wyatt Kaiser - Smooth 2 way defender that just keeps improving at Min-Dul. I really like his game and see him as someone that has a real shot at the NHL top4 ceiling
4. D Taige Harding - likely higher than most… but wow this big kid is better than i thought. Could be a real project that with the right path, could be a steal.
5. D Ian Mitchell - A forgotten player, but he has rebounded to have an all-star AHL level season. He can move the puck and is good at blue line to blue line passing. Should get a real shot at bottom pairing next season.
6. LW Colton Dach - Displays that good instinct in close. I know he needs a lot of work in other areas, but from a hockey sense perspective he has the tools needed to make it to the NHL.
7. D Alex Vlasic - Big and composed sound tactic D man. Should get lots of opportunities over next 3 seasons.
8. G Arvid Soderblom - 22 and coming off a great season in the A. He will get every opportunity for the Hawks over the next 2-3 years.
9. C Landon Slaggert - maybe a little forgotten as Rolston has gotten a lot of points this year for the Irish… however, Slaggert does a lot right while on the ice and I think he presents a consistent compete intensity for a club.
10. D Nolan Allen - a surprise pick last draft and likely about 50 picks too high however I think he is in line to be a solid 4-5 dman. He has great size and showed he wasn’t scared to play against true competition.
My take: if this isn’t the worst prospect core in the league it has to be bottom 5. Reichel is really the only blue chip prospect we have. I like Kaiser a lot and honestly almost all of our true nhl caliber guys are on D, but he isn’t a sure thing yet either. The next 3 drafts in the top 2 rounds will determine our next 10 seasons.
Upcoming Drafts:
2022: Weaker up top than 2023 for sure, Shane Wright will go #1 and then there are about 5-7 guys that could go anywhere 2-8. Logan Cooley and Joakim Kemmel present the most potential at #2. Reminder Hawks only get the pick if it’s 1 or 2. If they do get 1 or 2 then they do not get 2023.
2023: If they get a Wright / Cooley then we will only have TBL first here. Connor Bedard may be a Sebastian Aho - Connor McDavid in between franchise player at #1 but the true power of 2023 is that it may have 3-4 of these guys. The Steele have Adam Fantilli and then there is the Russian Matvei Michkov. There are also another 5 at a high level. Overall I’d say that 1 of a Wright-Cooley-Bedard-Fantilli-Michkov will be a Hawk. I’d put those odds at 40-50%.
Either way on the next 2 drafts Davidson should be stockpiling forwards with skill AND compete as their main traits. He also needs to invest on some goalie projects. Our D core for prospects looks to be solid but with no top pair guys.
Summary: Slowly but surely the Hawks need to shed our aging players and longer contracts any way they can. Investment into compete and skill traits is a must. Goalie quantity and quality should be addressed asap. I think we have 2 seasons to figure out our young players that are 20-23 now. After that, we must move on. The future of the Hawks will come down to 1 simple truth: will Davidson hit on his picks over the 22-24 drafts. That’s it.
3-23-22
What’s just happened: Hired GM Kyle Davidson whom has just completed his first trade deadline:
Traded: LW Brandon Hagel, G Marc-Andre Fleury, and C Ryan Carpenter, 2022 4th, and 2024 4th
Received: LW Taylor Raddysh, RW Boris Katchouk, 2023 1st (TBL), 2024 1st (TBL), 2024 5th (CAL), 2022 conditional 1st (MIN) - becomes 2nd if Wild don’t reach conf. finals with Fleury winning 50% of wins.
My take: Davidson said re-build and that’s exactly what he has started. We got 2 everyday NHL wings with a middle 6 scorer and a bottom 6 depth piece. The big part of this are the 3 picks. Most likely is that each of the 1sts is in that 22-32 range and the Minnesota pick is at best #29 and at worst # 59 so it’s likely to be a 50/50 prospect to make the league. Still, it was FREE so let’s not be upset at that.
Current Roster and contracts:
UFAs: D De Haan, C Lafferty, D Gustafson, G Lankanen, G Delia
RFAs: C Strome, RW Kubalik, C Dach, LW Johnson, LW Kurashev, D C Jones
My take: A ton of work is ahead for Davidson on these players. Let’s get the easy ones off the table… D De Haan, D Gustafson, G Delia should all walk away.
After those 3 though there will be many tough conversations: #1 is Strome. He went from mid round pick trade to worth his QO of 3.7m to now I believe a final bridge deal of around 2/8. I also really like Lafferty as a 3rd line staple and think a 2/2.5 is exactly what he deserves. Lankanen is pretty much our only NHL goaltender so a prove it deal is a must at around 2.25 is what I think should be offered. 2/4.5 for me.
Some of the RFAs will be difficult; namely Kubalik. He isn’t worth his QO 4m so will have to decline and then be open market or trade his rights window. If someone trades a 4th for him and then they decline and give him a 2/5 then I think someone will do that. That’s what I think will happen. Recoup a 4th and move on. Dach needs a worth while bridge deal I’d say 3/9 which is what he has played like. Kurashev similar position I’d say 2/2.2. Caleb Jones should just get a 1/900k as a 7-8th D man. Reese Johnson is likely a depth fringe nhl 1 year min.
So to recap:
Leaving: De Haan, Gustafson, Delia, Kubalik
Deals: Strome (2/8), Dach (3/9), Lankanen (2/4.5), Lafferty (2/2.5), Kurashev (2/2.2), C Jones (1/900k), Johnson (1/780k)
In free agency: Spend 0 money outside of a 1 year deal. That should be an absolute here. Only guys that could have deadline value like we did with Janmark type of deals…
Under contract:
RW Kane (1/10.5)
C Toews (1/10.5)
C Khaira (1/975k)
LW DeBrincat (1/6.8-RFA)
C Borgstrom (1/1 - RFA)
Thoughts: Kane should get a 2-3 year extension in that 8.5-9.5 range) Let’s just make 8.88 x3 for fun. Toews on the other hand I think this will be his final year as a hawk and maybe in NHL. DeBrincat should get a raise as well. I think he is about a 8.5m player and at 5-6 years but of course it’s NHL so I think it will be a 7x9 when it’s all done. Borgstrom has a make or break year ahead so I’d say this will be his final Hawk year. Khaira likely to leave as well.
RW Entwistle (2/800k - RFA)
RW Raddysh (2/760k - RFA)
LW Katchouk (2/760k - RFA)
D Vlasic (2/760k - RFA)
D Stillman (2/1.35 - RFA)
C Johnson (2/5m)
D McCabe (3/12m)
D Murphy (4/17.6)
D S Jones (8/76m)
This is where it gets “oh boy” as our 3 top Dmen are all late 20s and paid a lot for a long time. McCabe has played his best hockey in the last 5-6 games but is still a bit behind the play. Murphy was having a down year before his injury. Jones, while a good top 4 guy with clear #1 PP point skill, is not worth his deal. Only Makar and Hedman are worth that deal. Jones is more like a 5x7.75 type of player for me. It will be a deal that if we can should be moved before he hits 30.
Prospects:
Like all teams, the Hawks prospects are all over the world: Europe, Canadian/US leagues, and college players. Here are the ones I think actually have an NHL future in order:
1. C Lukas Reichel - Still just 19 and playing great in Rockford. There is zero need to rush him so I think keeping his status this year is important. Next season at 20 we should ease him in 25-30games split time and then 23-24 finally bring him on fully at 21.
2. G Drew Commesso - The Hawks do NOT have a #2 prospect in tow. I have Commesso here because that’s how important his development is. He should take a lot of time to mature too… 1 more year at Boston and then at least 1.5 years in the A before a trial and then by 23 get a full shot at the big club.
3. D Wyatt Kaiser - Smooth 2 way defender that just keeps improving at Min-Dul. I really like his game and see him as someone that has a real shot at the NHL top4 ceiling
4. D Taige Harding - likely higher than most… but wow this big kid is better than i thought. Could be a real project that with the right path, could be a steal.
5. D Ian Mitchell - A forgotten player, but he has rebounded to have an all-star AHL level season. He can move the puck and is good at blue line to blue line passing. Should get a real shot at bottom pairing next season.
6. LW Colton Dach - Displays that good instinct in close. I know he needs a lot of work in other areas, but from a hockey sense perspective he has the tools needed to make it to the NHL.
7. D Alex Vlasic - Big and composed sound tactic D man. Should get lots of opportunities over next 3 seasons.
8. G Arvid Soderblom - 22 and coming off a great season in the A. He will get every opportunity for the Hawks over the next 2-3 years.
9. C Landon Slaggert - maybe a little forgotten as Rolston has gotten a lot of points this year for the Irish… however, Slaggert does a lot right while on the ice and I think he presents a consistent compete intensity for a club.
10. D Nolan Allen - a surprise pick last draft and likely about 50 picks too high however I think he is in line to be a solid 4-5 dman. He has great size and showed he wasn’t scared to play against true competition.
My take: if this isn’t the worst prospect core in the league it has to be bottom 5. Reichel is really the only blue chip prospect we have. I like Kaiser a lot and honestly almost all of our true nhl caliber guys are on D, but he isn’t a sure thing yet either. The next 3 drafts in the top 2 rounds will determine our next 10 seasons.
Upcoming Drafts:
2022: Weaker up top than 2023 for sure, Shane Wright will go #1 and then there are about 5-7 guys that could go anywhere 2-8. Logan Cooley and Joakim Kemmel present the most potential at #2. Reminder Hawks only get the pick if it’s 1 or 2. If they do get 1 or 2 then they do not get 2023.
2023: If they get a Wright / Cooley then we will only have TBL first here. Connor Bedard may be a Sebastian Aho - Connor McDavid in between franchise player at #1 but the true power of 2023 is that it may have 3-4 of these guys. The Steele have Adam Fantilli and then there is the Russian Matvei Michkov. There are also another 5 at a high level. Overall I’d say that 1 of a Wright-Cooley-Bedard-Fantilli-Michkov will be a Hawk. I’d put those odds at 40-50%.
Either way on the next 2 drafts Davidson should be stockpiling forwards with skill AND compete as their main traits. He also needs to invest on some goalie projects. Our D core for prospects looks to be solid but with no top pair guys.
Summary: Slowly but surely the Hawks need to shed our aging players and longer contracts any way they can. Investment into compete and skill traits is a must. Goalie quantity and quality should be addressed asap. I think we have 2 seasons to figure out our young players that are 20-23 now. After that, we must move on. The future of the Hawks will come down to 1 simple truth: will Davidson hit on his picks over the 22-24 drafts. That’s it.