ImageImageImage

Rubio Thread Seis (VI)

Moderators: Domejandro, Worm Guts, Calinks

Feilong
Veteran
Posts: 2,872
And1: 1,029
Joined: Jan 26, 2014

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1841 » by Feilong » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:29 pm

So many numbers ... :giveup:
ReturnofMVP3
RealGM
Posts: 14,800
And1: 11,580
Joined: Dec 14, 2011
       

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1842 » by ReturnofMVP3 » Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:44 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83k9zxzjoMM[/youtube]
Donald Trump is an idiot.
ace625214
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,463
And1: 604
Joined: May 31, 2014

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1843 » by ace625214 » Wed Oct 1, 2014 6:21 pm

guest81 wrote:
Spoiler:
ace625214 wrote:
guest81 wrote:
Well those numbers are...not right. Ricky didn't play 48 minutes. Nor was he responsible for every assist, or responsible for unassisted baskets.


I don't see at all how minutes would play into it. Ricky had over a 3.19:1 assist to turnover ratio. Assuming every good decision resulted in an assist and every bad one resulted in a turnover, it would be a 76.1% good decision rate.

Good passes are often not rewarded with baskets, though, since more shots are missed than made. Assume his teammates shot 50% then if you want. That's higher than it was on average, but we'll go with it. That would have pushed the ratio to 6.38:1. Now the "good decision rate" is at 86.4%.

I don't have SportVU numbers or detailed play logs on hand, so I don't know how many total passes he made. It's pretty obvious, though, that not every pass he made didn't result in a shot. I doubt if even 1/3 of them did. A pass that advanced the offense and didn't result in a TO would also be a good decision. Let's be conservative and say that 1/2 of Ricky's passes that weren't TOs resulted in shots. Now the ratio is a 12.76:1. Good decision rate is at 92.7%.

I'm sure that he made some bad passes that were recovered and didn't end in TOs, but those are sure more than accounted for by the 50% numbers for his teammates' shooting and his number of passes that resulted in shots.


I'm not quite sure where your pulling these numbers from. Yes it's 76.1% his assists to turnover ratio. An assist is a made basket. That player shot 100%. Not sure why you doubled that % to 86%?

So by your logic, Kevin Martin had a 1.16 assist to turnover ratio. 53% he made the right pass. Then going by your math his real "good decision rate" is 70%. But then you doubled it again and blah blah blah.

Hell by your logic JJ last year was 2.43. His "good decision rate" is 82%! So everybody on the team was making the right decision pretty much 80% of the time! Yet the Wolves went 40-42...maybe every other teams "good decision rate" was like 120%


I explained it pretty clearly. He gets 3.19 times as many assists as turnovers. If the guys he made to made half of the shots they took, that means he produced 6.38 shots per turnover by passing. That's why I doubled it once. Not every pass he makes results in a shot, though, and the boxscore doesn't credit the passer with an assist when the shooter gets fouled. I went with an ultra-conservative guess that 50% of Ricky's passes produced shots, which is why the ratio got doubled again to 12.76 good passes per turnover. I mentioned that it should probably be higher since my estimates were on the conservative side, but I'll stick with that for now.

As for your last quip, yeah. The team turned the ball over on 12.2% of its possessions offensively. That was the second-lowest rate in the league. Why did the Wolves finish 40-42? It wasn't because of decision making. It was because they couldn't get stops late in games, the bench sucked, and they shot pretty poorly. I have a feeling you knew that, though, and you're just coming up with bad arguments to entertain yourself.
C.lupus
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 30,811
And1: 8,832
Joined: Nov 02, 2007

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1844 » by C.lupus » Wed Oct 1, 2014 6:34 pm

Good decisions are much more than assists and turnovers and number of shots. Sometimes (most of the time?) the best decision is to not try the pass but to hold up and set up a play or maybe kick the ball to someone else who is in a better position to make an assist.

The +/- numbers say that the team as a whole and individual players are better when Rubio is on the court and controlling things. The team is much worse when Barea is and basically neutral when Martin plays. That passes the smell test for me and basically says Rubio makes the right decisions more often than most. And that's all I need to know.
ace625214
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,463
And1: 604
Joined: May 31, 2014

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1845 » by ace625214 » Wed Oct 1, 2014 7:12 pm

C.lupus wrote:Good decisions are much more than assists and turnovers and number of shots. Sometimes (most of the time?) the best decision is to not try the pass but to hold up and set up a play or maybe kick the ball to someone else who is in a better position to make an assist.

The +/- numbers say that the team as a whole and individual players are better when Rubio is on the court and controlling things. The team is much worse when Barea is and basically neutral when Martin plays. That passes the smell test for me and basically says Rubio makes the right decisions more often than most. And that's all I need to know.


Agreed. He just brought up the assist to TO ratio, so I was showing how even with his number the % is much higher.

My only issue with Ricky's decisions is that sometime during the middle/end of last season, teams caught on to his "act like I'm shooting a layup but drop it off beside me" tactics. He got a little predictable and didn't adjust. Hopefully he'll have a more aggressive mindset this season and will either pull up for the elbow jumper or just try to finish it himself more often.
FinnTheHuman
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,548
And1: 3,706
Joined: Nov 22, 2012
   

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1846 » by FinnTheHuman » Wed Oct 1, 2014 7:46 pm

ace625214 wrote:
C.lupus wrote:Good decisions are much more than assists and turnovers and number of shots. Sometimes (most of the time?) the best decision is to not try the pass but to hold up and set up a play or maybe kick the ball to someone else who is in a better position to make an assist.

The +/- numbers say that the team as a whole and individual players are better when Rubio is on the court and controlling things. The team is much worse when Barea is and basically neutral when Martin plays. That passes the smell test for me and basically says Rubio makes the right decisions more often than most. And that's all I need to know.


Agreed. He just brought up the assist to TO ratio, so I was showing how even with his number the % is much higher.

My only issue with Ricky's decisions is that sometime during the middle/end of last season, teams caught on to his "act like I'm shooting a layup but drop it off beside me" tactics. He got a little predictable and didn't adjust. Hopefully he'll have a more aggressive mindset this season and will either pull up for the elbow jumper or just try to finish it himself more often.



Yup. I pump faked my friend yesterday twice and scored 2 easy buckets. The 3rd time, I knew he wouldn't bite, so I shot it instantly. I scored again. Kobe said something like that a couple of weeks ago as well. It sometimes is adjusting to the situation in milliseconds, but more often than not it is more about doing what is not statistically expected of you at the given situation. Somebody needs to tell that to Ricky.

snaquille oatmeal wrote:http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/kobe-bryant-only-has-two-moves--as-does-everyone-who-picks-up-a-basketball-160159095.html

"How many people think you have to have a lot of moves? I have two. On the perimeter, I have two moves. On the post, two moves. That's it. On the perimeter, I'll go right, pull up, shoot; left, pull up, shoot. In the post, turn left shoulder, fadeaway; turn right, fadeaway."

"I was just talking to Nick Young. To be unstoppable, you have to first be predictable, because if you're unpredictable you don't know what the heck you're going to do, so how can you dictate to the defense what you're going to do?"

"I know, if I have a chance, I'm going to go right and shoot. You know I want to go right and shoot, because now I've gone right two times, made it and you're expecting me to go right. Now, I control you. Now, I'll fake right, go left. (Then), I go left, and you're like, 'Oh, you're going to make another one.' Now, I pump fake, you jump — pfft, now I draw a foul."

Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 63,137
And1: 17,591
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1847 » by Klomp » Wed Oct 1, 2014 9:20 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/APkrawczynski/status/517414243600441345[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/APkrawczynski/status/517414502489661440[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/APkrawczynski/status/517419450107445248[/tweet][tweet]https://twitter.com/APkrawczynski/status/517419726050721792[/tweet]
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.

Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
Sugarless
Starter
Posts: 2,455
And1: 1,978
Joined: Aug 12, 2004

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1848 » by Sugarless » Wed Oct 1, 2014 9:56 pm

ReturnofMVP3 wrote:[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83k9zxzjoMM[/youtube]


Not a bad interview, and while he's still a long way away from mastering it, Ricky has certainly improved his English.

BTW, I don't know how the broadcast went, but I think Greg Anthony and IT did a fine job in the couple of interviews I've seen, and they both seemed genuinely nice with our guys.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,580
And1: 50,199
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1849 » by bondom34 » Thu Oct 2, 2014 5:02 am

Just saw this article, RJ's shot has improved quite a bit over the last few years, maybe Rubio's got the same:

http://blogs.twincities.com/timberwolve ... ess-story/

Under Penberthy’s tutelage, Jackson’s three-point shooting percentage jumped 11 points from his second to third seasons. The point guard rocketed up from a bad 23 percent in 2012-13 to near-average 34 in 2013-14. His trey attempts more than doubled from 104 to 245 in that time frame.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
Sugarless
Starter
Posts: 2,455
And1: 1,978
Joined: Aug 12, 2004

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1850 » by Sugarless » Thu Oct 2, 2014 8:13 am

I liked this bit from the main article:

Before training camp, the rookies and younger players were practicing in Minneapolis -- and throwing up a lot of three-pointers. Then Saunders stopped practice.

"I told them we have 35 minutes to go," Saunders recalled. "For every three-pointer you miss, you're going to have to run a suicide (wind sprint). We went 35 minutes, and they didn't shoot one three. I told them if they don't have any confidence to make a three because you're going to run, I don't want you to shoot that in a game, either."


www.twincities.com/timberwolves/ci_2664 ... confidence
User avatar
Saltine
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,334
And1: 909
Joined: Jul 20, 2003
Location: Land o' Lakes
     

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1851 » by Saltine » Sat Oct 4, 2014 9:14 am

User avatar
Jstock12
RealGM
Posts: 10,493
And1: 17,273
Joined: Jun 24, 2012

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1852 » by Jstock12 » Sun Oct 5, 2014 12:15 pm

Sugarless wrote:I liked this bit from the main article:

Before training camp, the rookies and younger players were practicing in Minneapolis -- and throwing up a lot of three-pointers. Then Saunders stopped practice.

"I told them we have 35 minutes to go," Saunders recalled. "For every three-pointer you miss, you're going to have to run a suicide (wind sprint). We went 35 minutes, and they didn't shoot one three. I told them if they don't have any confidence to make a three because you're going to run, I don't want you to shoot that in a game, either."


http://www.twincities.com/timberwolves/ ... confidence


This is good stuff. Seems like a nice way to test the mental make-up and confidence of the younger players. If they had a rookie Kobe in that camp, he probably would have ended up running 4 or 5 of those sprints at the end of the practice.
C.lupus
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 30,811
And1: 8,832
Joined: Nov 02, 2007

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1853 » by C.lupus » Mon Oct 6, 2014 7:19 pm

I'm coming around to just giving RR the Designated Player label and 5 year max extension. With the new tv deal and potentially a cap of up to $90 million, that $15m+ starting salary will look more like an $11 or $12m salary right now, which is about where Flip is in negotiations. It locks Rubio in for 6 more years (no Love early out fiasco) and also uses up the designated player status making negotiations for Wiggins, et al., much easier in the future. Fegan's probably going to get him a max deal anyway.

I'd have to stay away from the GB for a while, though.

Actually, that's another positive to doing it.


And, no, he's not worth the max right now but that never stopped any NBA GM before. It's all pretty much Monopoly money to them anyway.
Worm Guts
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Posts: 26,055
And1: 10,474
Joined: Dec 27, 2003
     

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1854 » by Worm Guts » Mon Oct 6, 2014 7:47 pm

Sugarless wrote:I liked this bit from the main article:

Before training camp, the rookies and younger players were practicing in Minneapolis -- and throwing up a lot of three-pointers. Then Saunders stopped practice.

"I told them we have 35 minutes to go," Saunders recalled. "For every three-pointer you miss, you're going to have to run a suicide (wind sprint). We went 35 minutes, and they didn't shoot one three. I told them if they don't have any confidence to make a three because you're going to run, I don't want you to shoot that in a game, either."


http://www.twincities.com/timberwolves/ ... confidence


I'm not sure how I feel about that.
User avatar
urinesane
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,012
And1: 2,882
Joined: May 10, 2010
 

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1855 » by urinesane » Mon Oct 6, 2014 8:09 pm

C.lupus wrote:I'm coming around to just giving RR the Designated Player label and 5 year max extension. With the new tv deal and potentially a cap of up to $90 million, that $15m+ starting salary will look more like an $11 or $12m salary right now, which is about where Flip is in negotiations. It locks Rubio in for 6 more years (no Love early out fiasco) and also uses up the designated player status making negotiations for Wiggins, et al., much easier in the future. Fegan's probably going to get him a max deal anyway.

I'd have to stay away from the GB for a while, though.

Actually, that's another positive to doing it.


And, no, he's not worth the max right now but that never stopped any NBA GM before. It's all pretty much Monopoly money to them anyway.


I agree.

It's not our money, and it won't be a massive issue if he improves the way many think he will.

Probably better to try and get a deal done now than wait till next season when he will get more just due to the cap going up.
User avatar
urinesane
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,012
And1: 2,882
Joined: May 10, 2010
 

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1856 » by urinesane » Mon Oct 6, 2014 8:11 pm

I will also put my bold prediction in this thread for the record:

Ricky Rubio will score at least 30 points in a game this season.
User avatar
...
Junior
Posts: 428
And1: 112
Joined: Sep 24, 2007
 

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1857 » by ... » Mon Oct 6, 2014 8:14 pm

urinesane wrote:I will also put my bold prediction in this thread for the record:

Ricky Rubio will score at least 30 points in a game this season.



I'm with you but I'm going to enter a little further into crazy-town...he'll do it before 2015.
guest81
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,835
And1: 1,427
Joined: Jun 26, 2014

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1858 » by guest81 » Mon Oct 6, 2014 8:21 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
Sugarless wrote:I liked this bit from the main article:

Before training camp, the rookies and younger players were practicing in Minneapolis -- and throwing up a lot of three-pointers. Then Saunders stopped practice.

"I told them we have 35 minutes to go," Saunders recalled. "For every three-pointer you miss, you're going to have to run a suicide (wind sprint). We went 35 minutes, and they didn't shoot one three. I told them if they don't have any confidence to make a three because you're going to run, I don't want you to shoot that in a game, either."


http://www.twincities.com/timberwolves/ ... confidence


I'm not sure how I feel about that.


I agree. The big knock on Flip as a coach was a reliance on 2 point jumpshots. That style is way outdated. 3 point shooting and shots in the paint is the way things are done. With how bad the Wolves are at shooting, I wouldn't mind them shooting more then normal 3 pointers
Klomp
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 63,137
And1: 17,591
Joined: Jul 08, 2005
Contact:
   

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1859 » by Klomp » Mon Oct 6, 2014 8:38 pm

guest81 wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:
Sugarless wrote:I liked this bit from the main article:



http://www.twincities.com/timberwolves/ ... confidence


I'm not sure how I feel about that.


I agree. The big knock on Flip as a coach was a reliance on 2 point jumpshots. That style is way outdated. 3 point shooting and shots in the paint is the way things are done. With how bad the Wolves are at shooting, I wouldn't mind them shooting more then normal 3 pointers

You shouldn't shoot unless you're confident you can make the shot. That's all he's saying.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.

Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
guest81
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,835
And1: 1,427
Joined: Jun 26, 2014

Re: Rubio Thread Seis (VI) 

Post#1860 » by guest81 » Mon Oct 6, 2014 8:53 pm

Klomp wrote:
guest81 wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:
I'm not sure how I feel about that.


I agree. The big knock on Flip as a coach was a reliance on 2 point jumpshots. That style is way outdated. 3 point shooting and shots in the paint is the way things are done. With how bad the Wolves are at shooting, I wouldn't mind them shooting more then normal 3 pointers

You shouldn't shoot unless you're confident you can make the shot. That's all he's saying.


makes sense ya. I dunno if Rubio has the confidence per say, but I'd much rather him shoot the 3 then take a few steps in and shoot the long 2. Clearly we need Antione Walker back. He was oozing with confidence with the 3's

Return to Minnesota Timberwolves