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Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?

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Derrick Williams: Stay or Go?

He didn't pan out and it's time to get value back while we can.
76
58%
Keep him! Only letting him go in the perfect deal.
55
42%
 
Total votes : 131

Post#391 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:32 am by tviper

apologies for the laziness of not wading through 25 pages, but interested if any Laker players would be of interest for DWill (outside of the top 4, obviously). For example, would Hill be a fit? Some combination of out-of-rotation wings (Ebanks, Clark, Jamison)? Perhaps not, but haven't watched any MIN games this year yet to assess the roster needs. Thx.
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Post#392 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:40 pm by [RCG]

Sorry, you don't have any picks which would be the main asset coming back otherwise a Hill + Meeks + 1st for Williams would've been something to build from.
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Post#393 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:34 pm by shrink

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
shrink wrote:
rugbyrugger23 wrote:I can't believe this didn't get more run. YES. DD would be a great fit on the Wolves. I think they need a SG/SF type player, and one who is uber athletic is needed as well. His contract extension is hard to swallow, but maybe he could live up to it.


$38 mil for four years? We're not the Lakers here. We can't make a giant investment like this on a guy that has never been close to worth that much money.

And what would we trade to make it even? We don't have a bad contract that starts when Derozan's contract starts.


A third team would be needed. Barea and DWill for DD and filler (ideally expiring contract filler).


I don't think you're understanding me. Suppose MIN trades Williams for Derozan

In 2012-13 .. MIN WINS
In 2013-14 .. Williams + $4.5 mil in a fairly priced player or Derozan? MIN LOSES.
In 2014-15 .. $9.5 mil in a fairly priced player or Derozan? MIN LOSES.
In 2015-16 .. $9.5 mil in a fairly priced player or Derozan? MIN LOSES.
In 2016-17 .. $9.5 mil in a fairly priced player or Derozan? MIN LOSES.

Because most teams are limited to a salary under the lux, they need to at least get market value out of their players to be a play-off team. To be a true contender, they need to get excellent value out of how they spend their money - generally that means superstars. MIN can't lock into Derozan at $9.5 mil, and hope he improves enough to reach a .. say .. 20% chance that he's worth $9.5 mil.
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Post#394 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:36 pm by Skin

Straight up for JJ Redick.
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Post#395 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sat Dec 29, 2012 5:45 pm by shrink

Skin wrote:Straight up for JJ Redick.


Great fit, but can't do it, because he's an expiring UFA.

If MIN gave up Williams in the deal, they could watch Redick scoot right back to ORL this summer. Even if we knew we could re-sign him, it might be at the expense of Pekovic or Buddinger.

I'd do a deal for Afflalo because he's locked in for multiple years, but Redick's deal should make him untradable for Williams right now. Even if they love Redick and are willing to sacrifice someone next year to afford him, then they should keep Williams, find a short-term solution for the rest of the year (Rip?), and offer Redick the full MLE this summer.
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Post#396 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:31 pm by Klomp

shrink wrote:
Skin wrote:Straight up for JJ Redick.


Great fit, but can't do it, because he's an expiring UFA.

If MIN gave up Williams in the deal, they could watch Redick scoot right back to ORL this summer. Even if we knew we could re-sign him, it might be at the expense of Pekovic or Buddinger.

I'd do a deal for Afflalo because he's locked in for multiple years, but Redick's deal should make him untradable for Williams right now. Even if they love Redick and are willing to sacrifice someone next year to afford him, then they should keep Williams, find a short-term solution for the rest of the year (Rip?), and offer Redick the full MLE this summer.

Orlando won't do it straight up for Redick, much less Afflalo.
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Post#397 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:38 am by Skin

shrink wrote:
Skin wrote:Straight up for JJ Redick.


Great fit, but can't do it, because he's an expiring UFA.

If MIN gave up Williams in the deal, they could watch Redick scoot right back to ORL this summer. Even if we knew we could re-sign him, it might be at the expense of Pekovic or Buddinger.

I'd do a deal for Afflalo because he's locked in for multiple years, but Redick's deal should make him untradable for Williams right now. Even if they love Redick and are willing to sacrifice someone next year to afford him, then they should keep Williams, find a short-term solution for the rest of the year (Rip?), and offer Redick the full MLE this summer.

By trading for Redick you will get his Bird Rights and be willing to offer him more than his competitors. Plus, you can keep him and still use your MLE elsewhere if you wanted.

There's absolutely no way ORL gives up AA for D-Will.
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Post#398 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 5:27 am by shrink

Skin wrote:
shrink wrote:
Skin wrote:Straight up for JJ Redick.


Great fit, but can't do it, because he's an expiring UFA.

If MIN gave up Williams in the deal, they could watch Redick scoot right back to ORL this summer. Even if we knew we could re-sign him, it might be at the expense of Pekovic or Buddinger.

I'd do a deal for Afflalo because he's locked in for multiple years, but Redick's deal should make him untradable for Williams right now. Even if they love Redick and are willing to sacrifice someone next year to afford him, then they should keep Williams, find a short-term solution for the rest of the year (Rip?), and offer Redick the full MLE this summer.

By trading for Redick you will get his Bird Rights and be willing to offer him more than his competitors. Plus, you can keep him and still use your MLE elsewhere if you wanted.

There's absolutely no way ORL gives up AA for D-Will.


Oh - so if we overpay for him now, we have the chance to overpay for him this summer - even though he could take any deal and go wherever he wanted? We had two players take lesser money to go to other locations last year. And as I pointed out, if we want to pay for him this summer, we can offer him the MLE - which is fair for a SG of his skill. If he doesn't take it, then we spend it on a different, fairly-priced player.

Also, notice that if we are paying Redick, it probably means we don't have the money to pay Budinger, wasting the #16 pick we gave up for him. I don't think it's reasonable to assume Glen Taylor will go so far into the lux that he'll give Redick a big deal he won't walk away from - same for Pek - and STILL use the MLE.

Finally, I did not say I wanted ORL to do a Derrick Williams for Affalo deal straight up. I have consistently said in many threads that it'd take Williams plus something to get Afflalo.
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Post#399 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:34 am by Nitroglycerin

Stephen jackson?
Minnesota Timberwolves Offseason 2014

-get a starter SG to bring Kmart off the bench
-get rid of Barea
-fix the wing logjam
-get a backup PF and PG
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Post#400 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:09 pm by Skin

shrink wrote:
Skin wrote:
shrink wrote:
Great fit, but can't do it, because he's an expiring UFA.

If MIN gave up Williams in the deal, they could watch Redick scoot right back to ORL this summer. Even if we knew we could re-sign him, it might be at the expense of Pekovic or Buddinger.

I'd do a deal for Afflalo because he's locked in for multiple years, but Redick's deal should make him untradable for Williams right now. Even if they love Redick and are willing to sacrifice someone next year to afford him, then they should keep Williams, find a short-term solution for the rest of the year (Rip?), and offer Redick the full MLE this summer.

By trading for Redick you will get his Bird Rights and be willing to offer him more than his competitors. Plus, you can keep him and still use your MLE elsewhere if you wanted.

There's absolutely no way ORL gives up AA for D-Will.


Oh - so if we overpay for him now, we have the chance to overpay for him this summer - even though he could take any deal and go wherever he wanted? We had two players take lesser money to go to other locations last year. And as I pointed out, if we want to pay for him this summer, we can offer him the MLE - which is fair for a SG of his skill. If he doesn't take it, then we spend it on a different, fairly-priced player.

Also, notice that if we are paying Redick, it probably means we don't have the money to pay Budinger, wasting the #16 pick we gave up for him. I don't think it's reasonable to assume Glen Taylor will go so far into the lux that he'll give Redick a big deal he won't walk away from - same for Pek - and STILL use the MLE.

Finally, I did not say I wanted ORL to do a Derrick Williams for Affalo deal straight up. I have consistently said in many threads that it'd take Williams plus something to get Afflalo.

Do you see Redick leaving the TWolves for a better situation? How many teams out there will let him start? Of those teams, how many have the cap space to spend on him? You seem to have an idea that you will lose him in the offseason. But I'm trying to think of reasons why he would.

How are you coming up with the idea that your cap would exceed the luxury tax? This year it was around $70M.
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Post#401 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:10 pm by cube

Kahn touch this wrote:Stephen jackson?

No way! Im not sure he would like it in Min and could become cancerous like he was in Mil.

Have been thinking about Splitter for Derrick + 1, this would only work if SA sees enough potential in Derrick. Only problem would be resigning Splitter. For that we would need to ship Ridnour (or Barea) for an expiring wing (Wright, D.Jones). Then maybe get Rip for Roy if Chi is really looking to save some money.

Rubio, Barea/Ridnour
Rip, Shved
Ak, Gelabale?, Jones, (Budinger)
Love, Cunningham, Amudson
Pek, Splitter, Steamer
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Post#402 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 6:15 pm by Calinks

Any Williams trade that isn't bringing in a wing who can hit the three or a bonafide game changer is almost not worth discussing in my mind.
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Post#403 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Sun Dec 30, 2012 7:59 pm by shrink

Skin wrote: Do you see Redick leaving the TWolves for a better situation? How many teams out there will let him start? Of those teams, how many have the cap space to spend on him? You seem to have an idea that you will lose him in the offseason. But I'm trying to think of reasons why he would.


First, as I said, there's no guarantee we'd get to keep him, because he's a UFA. Are we hoping that his 4 months in MIN will get him to love the place.

As for another team - how about the one I mentioned: ORL? Supposedly he loves it there ,and is closely tied to the community. The Magic would have no trouble finding the cap space to offer him more than he's worth, especially since he's a fan favorite there.

Skin wrote: How are you coming up with the idea that your cap would exceed the luxury tax? This year it was around $70M.


Do you mean our "payroll" will exceed the lux, instead of the cap? If so, we may be right up against it, if we keep Pek, the MIN/MEM 1st, Buddinger (or why did we waste the #16 pick last year?) and/or the MLE .. PLUS a deal for Redick? I don't know what gets cut, but even if Redick stays and we "got" to pay him, it will be at the expense of one or two of the other - or Glen Taylor paying lux taxes.
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Post#404 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:59 am by Skin

shrink wrote:
Skin wrote: Do you see Redick leaving the TWolves for a better situation? How many teams out there will let him start? Of those teams, how many have the cap space to spend on him? You seem to have an idea that you will lose him in the offseason. But I'm trying to think of reasons why he would.


First, as I said, there's no guarantee we'd get to keep him, because he's a UFA. Are we hoping that his 4 months in MIN will get him to love the place.

As for another team - how about the one I mentioned: ORL? Supposedly he loves it there ,and is closely tied to the community. The Magic would have no trouble finding the cap space to offer him more than he's worth, especially since he's a fan favorite there.

Skin wrote: How are you coming up with the idea that your cap would exceed the luxury tax? This year it was around $70M.


Do you mean our "payroll" will exceed the lux, instead of the cap? If so, we may be right up against it, if we keep Pek, the MIN/MEM 1st, Buddinger (or why did we waste the #16 pick last year?) and/or the MLE .. PLUS a deal for Redick? I don't know what gets cut, but even if Redick stays and we "got" to pay him, it will be at the expense of one or two of the other - or Glen Taylor paying lux taxes.

Nah, if ORL traded Redick, he wouldn't return. Why would he leave MIN where he starts just to be coming off the bench again in ORL? Magic GM, Rob Hennigan is trying to remake the team in his own vision. You saw how easily he let go of Ryan Anderson. Being a fan favorite doesn't mean as much as you think it does. Afflalo was the biggest piece in the Howard trade and he's the present and future at SG for the Magic. Getting him just made it easier for the Magic to trade Redick.

One thing I don't understand is Pek's contract. Don't you guys have another year before you need to give him a new contract? In any case, I still don't see how Pek, Budinger, a non-lottery 1st rounder and Redick take you over the luxury tax, especially when you're subtracting D-Will's contract.
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Post#405 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:09 am by Dewey

way too much OVER ANALYSIS on roster moves ... if there's a player who fits a position of need and can help move the peg - you work to make a move. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush". If Reddick (or whoever) fits the team and RA is on board, then DK makes it work. I see no major road-blocks other than it still takes two teams.

My ONLY caution is that some of these guys look real good to us because we are so weak at certain positions, and long-term, we may find they are unable to meet expectations for the $$. Still, these are sometimes necessary. Low risk/progressive steps forward are the name of the game for building teams - Plan B is to swing for the fence in the off-season and risk coming away with a K....

Bottom-line: If we could add Reddick, etc... - you do this small step now and go for a bigger addition this summer. We are very mediocre and to think we can get by with 10-day patchwork contracts is completely insane. That will drive down team attitude quicker than mice on skates.
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Post#406 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:03 am by shrink

Skin wrote:One thing I don't understand is Pek's contract. Don't you guys have another year before you need to give him a new contract? In any case, I still don't see how Pek, Budinger, a non-lottery 1st rounder and Redick take you over the luxury tax, especially when you're subtracting D-Will's contract.


Pek is a restricted free agent after this season. We plan to keep him, so we need to match another team's best offer.

As for going over the lux, here's the numbers:

$14,693,906 Kevin Love
$10,219,420 Andrei Kilenko
$4,687,000 JJ Barea
$4,320,000 Luke Ridnour
$3,678,358 Ricky Rubio
$3,066,667 Alexey Shved
$2,690,875 Greg Steimsma
$2,180,000 Dante Cunningham
$884,293 Malcolm Lee
$46,420,519 MINNESOTA TOTALS

$11,000,000 Pekovic new deal?
$4,000,000 Buddinger new deal?
$1,000,000 MIN/MEM new deal?
$7,000,000 Redick new deal - must outbid all offers
$5,150,000 MLE
$74,570,519 TOTAL 2013 SALARY

The lux may go up, but the last few years it's been $70.3 mil.

Your next step would be to eliminate contracts, but even that's tough. Steimsma's not guaranteed, but we'd need "somebody" as a back-up center. Pek is looking like he may get an offer for more than $11 mil, and outbidding all offers for Redick might be north of $7. Your trade may require us to trade Ridnour or Barea and demand that we get an expiring, which is also limiting. We could not use the MLE, but it wastes an annual opportunity to add talent to the team without giving up anything but money -- a better alternative than trading an asset like Williams.
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Post#407 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:48 pm by [RCG]

I wouldn't be opposed to trading Ridnour for an expiring - or Barea.
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Post#408 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:29 pm by Esohny

[RCG] wrote:I wouldn't be opposed to trading Ridnour for an expiring - or Barea.


Nope. The PG ranks need to be trimmed down by at least 1 (maybe 2 players).

As for the costs above, I really doubt that AK47 opts in to his 2nd year. He'll opt out and go for a longer term deal, which I would expect that the Wolves could give him for a lower yearly salary. And then there's Redick; I doubt he gets above 7 million a season.

Not that it matters. I don't have much faith in a meaningful in-season trade anyway.
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Post#409 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Tue Jan 1, 2013 3:06 pm by theGreatRC

No trading JJ or Luke until Rubio strings together 5-8 good games in a row, showing flashes of his normal self: Energetic, pesky defender and elite passer.
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Post#410 Re: Derrick Williams: Time to Move On?
Tue Jan 1, 2013 3:20 pm by Klomp

theGreatRC wrote:No trading JJ or Luke until Rubio strings together 5-8 good games in a row, showing flashes of his normal self: Energetic, pesky defender and elite passer.

I agree. And I don't see that happening before the trade deadline at this rate.
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