Vaueing the OKC 1st

[shrink]

Be sure to keep a close eye on whether Westbrook is willing to accept the Supermax extension offer. If he declines, it is possible that Sam Pesti will see what the trade market is for the guy, rather than risk losing another superstar for nothing. Some national commentators joked that while OKC trading for Paul George gives them a year to try to convince him to stay, and not go to the Lakers in one year, it also gives Paul George one year to try to convince UCLA Westbrook to join him in LA! Even if Westbrook is undecided, and wants to wait until the end of the season to decide, that is a huge gamble for the organization, and they may try to sell. And if they sell Westbrook, they certainly won't believe they can keep George, and they will sell him too!

The OKC pick we own is lottery protected for three years. If it is not conveyed by the 2020 draft, it turns into two second rounders. This could certainly be the case, if Westbrook declines the max extension to go play somewhere else.

[Jammer]

OKC's 2018 pick could easily be like #23 to #25.

Someone, I think at 82games.com, did a study some years back looking at a 20 year period of picks to rate the relative value of picks. In theory a 2 is better than a 3 is better than a 4, but when he looked at a 20 year average of players picked. allowing for standard deviation, the ranking of picks was along the lines of (spaces indicate significant drop):

1
2-5

6-10

11-14
15-25

26-30

31-34

35-49

50-57
58-60

On one hand it basically says that when you compare twenty #16 picks against twenty #23 picks there's not much difference.

But another factor is the talent in each draft class. Some draft classes are overall considered busts while some are loaded. If we forget than you usually need a Top 9 pick, and no worse than a Top 13 pick, to get an All-Star shooting guard in a GOOD DRAFT YEAR (and similar for the other positions), But if we just concentrate on players taken 23 or later in the past 10 years, you have:

2008 #24 Serge Ibaka (Ryan Anderson and Courtney Lee were #21 and #22); George Hill #26; DeAndre Jordan #35; Goran Dragic #45

2009 #23 Omri Casspi, Taj Gibson #26, DeMarre Carrol #27, Patrick Beverly #42

2010 #27 Jordan Crawford, Hassan Whiteside #33, Nemanja Bjelica #35, Lance Stephenson #40

2011 #23 Nikola Mirotic, Jimmy Butler #30, Bojan Bogdanovic #31, Chandler Parsons #38, Isaiah Thomas #60

2012 Jae Crowder #34, Draymond Green #35, Khris Middleton #39

2013 #24 Tim Hardaway Jr., Rudy Gobert #27

2014 #23 Rodney Hood, Kyle Anderson #30, Nikola Jokic #41

2015 #23 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, #24 Tyus Jones, #27 Larry Nance Jr., #31 Cedi Osman, #44 Andrew Harrison, #48 Dakari Johnson

2016 #23 Ante Zizac, #25 Brice Johnson, #27 Pascal Siakam, #33 Cheick Diallo, #36 Malcolm Brogdan, #38 Patrick McCaw

2017 #26 Caleb Swanigan, #27 Kyle Kuzma, #30 Josh Hart, #31 Frank Jackson

So except for 2010, when Crawford and Whiteside were headcases who took some years to develop (Whiteside after he was released by Sacramento and spent 2 1/2 years in D-League), the other years all had several players worthwhile at pick #23 or later if you could identify them, and were smart enough to draft for talent and not need.

[Klomp]

The biggest value (or vaue) this pick has right now is being locked into the rookie salary scale. With big-money players, these cheap players become even more valuable.

[KGdaBom]

The biggest value (or vaue) this pick has right now is being locked into the rookie salary scale. With big-money players, these cheap players become even more valuable.

Being cheap is nice, being good is more important. My best guess is that if we keep the pick the player we get from it will not be any good.

[LordBaldric]

The biggest value (or vaue) this pick has right now is being locked into the rookie salary scale. With big-money players, these cheap players become even more valuable.

Being cheap is nice, being good is more important. My best guess is that if we keep the pick the player we get from it will not be any good.

That sir, comes right out of the Kevin McHale school of drafting.

[KGdaBom]

The biggest value (or vaue) this pick has right now is being locked into the rookie salary scale. With big-money players, these cheap players become even more valuable.

Being cheap is nice, being good is more important. My best guess is that if we keep the pick the player we get from it will not be any good.

That sir, comes right out of the Kevin McHale school of drafting.

LOL, but statistically speaking most players drafted 20 or later are never any good McHale selected or not.

[Mattya]

At the deadline the Lakers traded Lou Williams for Corey Brewer and a draft pick from the Rockets. So, the Lakers actually got less than what Aldrich and the OKC pick could be worth at the deadline for a great bench scorer. Now a trade may or may not be an option, but it makes a lot more sense to hold onto these assets and let them build value, instead of giving them up to teams trying to rip the Wolves off.

[Nidsmy]

The biggest value (or vaue)

Snide and unnecessary.

[Wingman]

Even if Russ doesn't sign now there is no chance they trade him. None.

[thinktank]

The biggest value (or vaue)

Snide and unnecessary.

+1.

[TheProdigy]

The biggest value (or vaue)

Snide and unnecessary.

[shrink]

At the deadline the Lakers traded Lou Williams for Corey Brewer and a draft pick from the Rockets. So, the Lakers actually got less than what Aldrich and the OKC pick could be worth at the deadline for a great bench scorer. Now a trade may or may not be an option, but it makes a lot more sense to hold onto these assets and let them build value, instead of giving them up to teams trying to rip the Wolves off.

This is a great point. Next year we will be over the cap, but under the lux, We have the ability to take on 2018 salary and Aldrich can be that mechanism to sell cap space.

2018 free agency looks like a great time to be one of the few buyers, because with lots of talent and little cap space in the nba, teams that can add more cap space will be able to get bargains. If we can get by with vet min players to fill the rest of the bench, we should see the value of Aldrich's contract grow as we get closer to the deadline.

[shrink]

OKC's 2018 pick could easily be like #23 to #25.

i agree. Sam Pesti has made a lot of good moves this summer, and even if the pick is late, it could bring back a good prospect .

However, what does Pesti do if Westbrook refuses to sign a max extension when the season begins? Can they hold onto him, and run the risk of losing him for nothing, or does that instantly put Westbrook on the trade block?

And if Westbrook is traded because he MIGHT walk, you have to assume Paul George would be traded right behind him, because without Russ, I think the chance George stays in OKC goes from slim to none. If OKC trades ose two, it would be for a major rebuild, and very likely that pick, that looks so locked into being transfered from playoff-bound OKC, suddenly will lose a lot of it's value if it becomes two seconds from lottery OKC.