(#31 or #34) + Cash = ??? 1st rounder?

All Day · Post #1 » by **All Day** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:47 am

I used to be a supporter of trading both 2nds to jump into the mid/late 1st round, but the draft is shaping up to have more depth than I originally thought. I like the idea of selecting 2 players late 1st/early 2nd instead of resting hope on a single guy to pan out at this stage of the draft.

My question is:
How far does #31 and cash OR #34 and cash get MIN into the 1st round?

Does #34 and cash get MIN to #30 (BOS)? I know it isn't that big a leap and we are essentially jumping in front of ourselves, but I can see some talent slipping worth making a move for (CDR, Bill Walker, and a number of bigs come to mind). SEA (#32) and POR (#33) are likely to have their picks up for grabs due to the numerous picks SEA has and the full roster POR has. MIN has the BOS 09 1st so BOS would have to make the selection before a trade could take place. I could see BOS doing this if they are after a backup PG in the draft as there are likely to be none available in the range worth that high of a pick. I don't see Mario Chalmers slipping and I don't think he'd be a good fit if BOS is looking for a distributor. There are also concerns of lux tax for BOS. I'm not sure if they are over or not but I know they are up there.

And/Or does #31 and cash get MIN to #26 (SA)? The reasons for SA to do this would be similar to Boston's (no PG avail. and $ concerns).

Any thoughts or other ideas? Or I am crazy to waste my time on this? I know deals similar in nature to these take place all the time on draft night but no 2nd to 1st round jumps come to mind.

BMF Jet Jaguar · Post #2 » by **BMF Jet Jaguar** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:52 am

COURRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTNEEEE LEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

and some other duggie

shrink · Post #3 » by **shrink** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 3:51 am

Yes to BOS, and Yes to SA, and it might not take the cash.

The late first rounders may have less value than the earliest seconds. Its hard to see a big difference historically between picks that late (they are all a lucky shot to even get a rotation player), and the salary and roster bonuses for second rounders trump the guaranteed salary and roster spots of some late firsts.

However, its hard to know about SA. It really depends on how they build their roster, because they have many spots to fill. Its unlikely a late first rounder would be a contributor this year anyway, but it really comes down to how close they are to the salary cap. Their mod came by last month and suggested #26-for#31 straight up, but I've heard from other good SA posters that they may not be as close to the lux as previously assumed.

ss1986v2 · Post #4 » by **ss1986v2** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 6:48 am

shrink wrote:However, its hard to know about SA. It really depends on how they build their roster, because they have many spots to fill. Its unlikely a late first rounder would be a contributor this year anyway, but it really comes down to how close they are to the salary cap. Their mod came by last month and suggested #26-for#31 straight up, but I've heard from other good SA posters that they may not be as close to the lux as previously assumed.

its really up in the air at this point. the spurs look to have a bit of breathing room, but maybe not a whole lot depending on how hard they pursue certain people this offseason. with these numbers, i assume:

1) finley is gone.
2) KT is resigned for something along the lines of 2yrs/9mil.
3) vaughn picks up his option (whose gonna want him for more?).
4) barry doesnt retire.
5) at least one of the spurs 2nd rounders is on the team next season.
6) the spurs spend all of their MLE.

duncan - 20.6
parker - 11.6
ginobili - 9.9
bowen - 4.0
oberto - 3.5
bonner - 3.0
barry - 1.3
vaughn - 1.3
udoka - 1.1
mahinmi - 0.7

MLE - 5.7
thomas - 4.5
26th pick - 1.1
2nd rounder 0.5

total - 68.8

so if the luxury tax is about 71 mil next season, that puts the spurs about 2.2 mil below the tax line. that leaves the spurs with at least 14 roster spots filled, but it could be more depending how they spread the MLE. and if the spurs move bonner sometime in the next year, they might have enough room to spend a chunk their MLE next year too (probably too tight with annual raises, more likely to spend just the BAE that year). so while they are going to be flirting with the line, it probably wont be until the season after next, and the spurs dont have a 1st rounder that year.

IMO, its probably better to get the BPA with the 26th this year, and worry about next year when it gets here. that said, if this deal (or a deal like it) went down, i wouldnt be surprised. its not horrible value, and their is some sense to it. just not sure its entirely necessary.

shrink · Post #5 » by **shrink** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 7:09 am

Good post. My thinking is that if you have some good free agent vets that want to join up for a chance at a ring, SA won't be saying "no," but at this point, its pretty hard to know exactly how SA is going to fill its roster. I don't know if a deal like this would happen either, but for people that understand the financial side, this kind of swap could have the potential to help both teams a little.

BTW, I'm glad I didn't get caught saying, " .. but I've heard from "some lame-ass" SA poster that ...

buzzbomb · Post #6 » by **buzzbomb** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 4:51 pm

Why would you go from #31 to #26 and give up more? #31 is worth much more than #26. So at #26 you can take Tiago Splitter and never see him again? I'd say about #20 to #22 is the floor. Most likely we are looking for a 5 and there isn't one worth trading for below that. At #31 we have first choice of the Euro's that won't be coming this year. That is huge value. Ibaka, Peckovic, Tomic,etc. Those guys will be coveted there. You could easily get a future first for that pick. You could probably get a future first and a lower second this year. Face it, we control the first round, and we control the second round. You have to leverage that for every bit of worth. Whether that's this year or next. This is a three year plan right? So far, one hell of a job! This is just so cool.

Winter Wonder · Post #7 » by **Winter Wonder** » Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:50 pm

Would love Ibaka at #31, but Seattle will probably grab him at #24. I don't see them letting him go by there hoping he drops to their first 2nd round pick. Too much upside. If he was available at #31, I would be severly disappointed if MN did not draft him. Yes, he is primarily a 4, but with strength and ahtleticism, I could see him log minutes at the 5. Heck, improved ball-handling and such, he MAY be able to learn the 3, but that seems far less likely.

I rate Tomic and Pekovic (even Erhden) below Asik, but they could all be very nice pick ups in the early 2nd round. If we keep those picks, one should be a help now type and one a help in the future (euro prospect). Thompson may slip to second round and be nice at #34. There are others (Hickson if he hasn't moved to first round, Hendrix, White (yuck)), though I would like to find a center prospect in this draft.

All Day · Post #8 » by **All Day** » Fri Jun 20, 2008 12:03 am

Thanks for the feedback and info. I understand the value of having #31 and early second round picks vs late first round picks in general, but... when you have a high-rated prospect slipping, imo, you make the call to move up and grab the guy before another team who also realizes his value does.

To clarify since I rushed the original post, I would only do the trades I listed should a guy slip as listed above. I'm not advocating blindly moving to the first round just for the hell of it. The question to ask is: is the risk of moving to the 1st round and having the guaranteed salary/contract worth the possible reward of drafting a guy who you've got a gut feeling will be a legit player in the league?

Moving only one of the 2nds still allows us to grab and stash a Euro with the remaining 2nd.

Post #9 » by **revprodeji** » Fri Jun 20, 2008 2:43 am

I hear phx and SA actually want 1st rd picks.

From one of the interviews we have 8-10 guys in the mid-late first that we like. We will wait til we see who is left and decide from there. I doubt we trade up until on draft night. Why move up when you have a chance at 2 guys you like?

theGreatRC · Post #10 » by **theGreatRC** » Fri Jun 20, 2008 1:59 pm

Trading two early second rounders for a very late 1st rounder is pointless imo and the talent level doesn't even drop going from late 1sts to early seconds, only the money they make does.

Post #11 » by **revprodeji** » Fri Jun 20, 2008 4:20 pm

exactly. From what we hear from the McHale interviews is that we have 8-10 mid-late 1st round guys we like. When it gets to the 15th pick or so we will see who is on the board and either move up to grab someone, or simply take the guys we like when they get to our picks. We are in a good position for that.

4ho5ive · Post #12 » by **4ho5ive** » Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:14 pm

If Mayo isnt the pick or their is a deal on draft night, I would love for us to find a way to acquire either Brandon Rush or CDR. I agree that moving from 31+34 to #26 isnt really a great idea, but if we can move into the mid-late teen's I would love that.