The Clipper Conspiracy and the #2 + #3 Picks

[shrink]

Many odd things have happened leading up to this draft. Riley knocking Beasley. Mayo in a secret workout session. Odd trade rumors. I think I've put my finger on what's going on behind the scenes, and it all starts with the Clippers.

1. LAC wants OJ Mayo, bad! This should come as no surprise. The hometown kid may have been in the dreams of Clippers fans and management for years, ever since he started getting national news in junior high, and demanded he play college ball in front of his home fans. He wants to be a star, and LA is the place to do it. Mayo could be a monsterous cash cow for the Clipper's organization, selling season tickets and new merchandise. What player in the draft has the local media punch and charisma to turn LA fans enamored with an aging Kobe towards the Clipper's .. the Laker's ugly sister that no wants to date? The Clippers believe that's Mayo.

2. LAC will offer a lot for Mayo! Here's where it gets fun. The Clippers are on the record saying that no one on their team is untouchable. Not the pick, not Kaman, not Brand, no one. It makes sense, considering how much value he'd have if he stayed in LA.

3. MIA asks, "Will you offer more than Beasley? As soon as the Heat got the second pick, Riley's been in overdrive, saying this isn't a two-man draft, saying that the #2 is a valuable trade asset, and questioning Beasley's position, character, length and drive. Why diminish your own asset? It's not for other team's consumption -- its for Heat fans. In the month before the draft, Riley doesn't want Miami fans and media to get so attached to Beasley that no trade would be acceptable. As rev points out, Riley doesn't have many years left, and he has said he wants vets to compete right away -- Brand would be a perfect fit. MIA tried to acquire Brand earlier, and Brand would have complied, but LAC matched the offer. A deal based on "#2 for Brand" fits both team's needs.

4. MIA wants to get greedy! MIA wants to get the most they possibly can for the #2, particularly if they are going to pass on Beasley. Behind the scenes, maybe they start asking for more. Perhaps they want to include Blount's bad deal. They want to include Banks bad deal. They don't want to include Haslem. Maybe they want LAC's #7, or a future pick. They say, "We have the #2, so if you want Mayo, you have to take our deal!"

5. LAC wants a fair deal. The Clippers say, "You don't hold all the leverage! We could dare you to pass on Beasley, and if you can't, then we'll deal with MIN for Mayo. You come up with your best offer, because I swear to you, you don't want to have to decide between Beasley and Mayo without a deal in place with us first!

6. MIA makes a tough offer. MIA responds, "Well, if you try to make a deal with MIN, you know that they won't do it for the older Brand -- they'll want Kaman, picks, cap relief .. who knows? Brand could opt out and leave you with nothing. Nothing!" MIA makes a tough offer, and LAC has to decide. They work Mayo out in secret, trying to avoid the media and feel less pressure from the Clipper fans to turn down an over-priced deal.


These scenarios are all good for MIN. If LAC accepts the steep deal for the #2, it leaves Beasley for us at #3. While Mayo may have more economic value for the Clippers than Beasley, the reverse is true for most teams, including us. A deal may drain assets out of the Western Conference as well. If LAC rejects MIA's steep deal, MIA picks Beasley and we get Mayo. This is LAC's last chance to get Mayo, and Mayo is a legitimate fit on the Wolves, so the Clippers will not have leverage. If they want their cash cow, they won't be able to set up a bidding war, and will have to make MIN a significant offer .. better than the meager (#7 + Tim Thomas + future 1st returned for #3 + Jaric) that we've seen for a month. And if they can't, how bad would it be for MIN to be "stuck" with Mayo, throwing Mayo/Foye at opposing back courts every night?

I think this is win/win for MIN, and maybe win/win for everyone.

[the_bruce]

Interesting analysis!

[funkatron101]

I think the Wolves are in the best position in this draft. The only thing they really need to worry about is moving McCants for fair value if they do indeed pick Mayo, and can't work a deal with the Clippers.

[mayorhoiberg]

This does sound very good for the Wolves, and potentially everyone... but are the Clippers really that interested in Mayo?

[4ho5ive]

I just cant help but think that this draft is not going to be as fulfilling as it should be. This is a great way to look at things, but im not sure it will work out like such

If we do end up dealing with the Clips and get the Kaman+#7 offer I would be ecstatic. At #7 we would have a number of options at SF (Gillinari/Alexander) C (Lopez/Jordan) or G (Gordon/Westbrook/Augustine) I would hope to deal McCants+ BOS/MIA pick or 2 2nd round to move up into 15-18 range, and nab Brandon Rush.

A 3 guard rotation of Foye/Rush/Telfair excites me almost as much as a Foye/Mayo/Telfair rotation.

[the_bruce]

Los Angeles Clippers
Incoming Players: Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, #2, #3
Outgoing Players: Elton Brand, Chris Kaman, #7

Miami Heat
Incoming Players: Elton Brand, Mike Miller
Outgoing Players: Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, #2

Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players: #5, #7
Outgoing Players: #3

Memphis Grizzlies
Incoming Players: Chris Kaman
Outgoing Players: Mike Miller

[funkatron101]

Los Angeles Clippers
Incoming Players: Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, #2, #3
Outgoing Players: Elton Brand, Chris Kaman, #7

Miami Heat
Incoming Players: Elton Brand, Mike Miller
Outgoing Players: Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount, Marcus Banks, #2

Minnesota Timberwolves
Incoming Players: #5, #7
Outgoing Players: #3

Memphis Grizzlies
Incoming Players: Chris Kaman
Outgoing Players: Mike Miller

That seems really flawed to me. Memphis trades Miller + 5 for Kaman? We get 5 AND 7 for the 3? Nah..

[prefuse73]

it would be miller & #5 for Kaman.... but I really like that deal. Turning the #3 pick into #5 and #7 would be quite a trick.

we select love at 5 and then try to turn #7 (Gallinari) / #31/ McCants to new jersey for #10 and #21

#5 - Love
#10 - Rush
#21 - RLopez

Jefferson - RLopez
Love - - Jefferson - Gomes
Brewer - Gomes
Rush - Foye
Foye - Telfair

[4ho5ive]

:0 thats even better!!!!

[the_bruce]

That seems really flawed to me. Memphis trades Miller + 5 for Kaman? We get 5 AND 7 for the 3? Nah..

Lots of Trades are Kaman + 7 for 3. I'm pretty sure Mem would do Miller + 5 for Kaman its not that far of a step, and what better place for miller to go than MIA.

For MIA: EB\Marion\Miller\Wade\<pg> (this team is killer)
EB for Blount + Haslem + 2 is close
Miller for Banks is a steal

For LAC: Mayo\Mobley\thornton\Beasly\(use maggette to get a 5)
(this sort of sucks because it destroys thier frontline)
2 + Haslem + Blount for EB is close
3 for 7 + Kaman has at least been discussed but Im not sure how LAC clipper fans feel about it

MEM is close, but may be a little short

MN meh, if Kaman + 7 is for real(i think lac pays to much though), then 5 + 7 is possible.

[shrink]

I think that a deal between MIA and LAC has to be for Brand (no Kaman) and Mayo, because each player has so much more trade value in the right spot.

Mayo of course, is a perfect fit and a marketing bonanza in LA. Fans have longed for him since he was in junior high, and he's demonstrated more loyalty to a town/team than any lottery prospect I can remember. In MIA (or MIN, for that matter), Mayo is just another top three prospect.

Brand has less value in LAC where he could opt out tomorrow and leave the Clipper with nada. If he goes to MIA, he's happy, he gets a new deal, and Riley gets the perfect vet big man.

If the MIA posters are any indication, they love Haslem, and as he closes in on 28, he might be a better fit on the win-now Heat. He has a reasonable two-year deal, $6.6 this year, and $7.1 next year. A better option, I think, would be a J-Will sign-and-trade at about $2 mil, with the last two years unguaranteed. Give the #2 his deal, and it'd work financially.

Brand for Mayo + Blount + JWill (exp). LAC can save about $4 mil this year on the deal, which takes a little of the sting out of taking on Blount.

[shrink]

If we end up with Beasley at #3, I would certainly listen to offers, and there's a good chance somebody would overpay. However, if I wasn't blown away, I wouldn't mind keeping him. He has superstar potential - something we definitely need more of on this team. Other needs can be addressed through free agency this summer or next, or through trades from our many assets (expirings and picks)

[dunkonu21]

A 3 guard rotation of Foye/McCants/Telfair excites me almost as much as a Foye/Mayo/Telfair rotation.

I think that is the case personally. Mayo is great ya, but I dunno if the upgrade of having Mayo over Telfair, making it Foye/Mayo/McCants is really worth using a #3 pick on. I say we leave the back court the way it is and try to get Mr Gallinari, which will end Gomes in MN. I know you all like Gomes, but I like Gallinari+Telfair more than Mayo+Gomes.

[revprodeji]

We are in no hurry to dump McCants unless we get value.

Foye/Rush/Bassy is a weak 3 guard group.

The best logic is if we get Beasley he projects as a 3 and Brewer will play the 2. (In that case Rush/Bassy off the bench is decent.)

The more complex the less likely a deal will happen, but I could see something with laC and Mia. That would allow Beasley to fall to us. I have been vocal about my beasley concerns, and the front office is divided, but when push comes to shove the biggest boom-bust in this draft is also the best chance for a home run at that stage of the draft.

[Dewey]

A deal between LAC and Miami greatly increases MN's chance to deal the #3 for two picks in the top 10, and at minimum, get a starting caliber player via trade-down scenarios. The topic with little discussion is "Beasley to the Timberwolves at #3". We could keep him, but Beasley would be the player to get us in the drivers seat on many quality options.

--->Love and (Alexander or Gallinari) would be my objective.
--->We'd still have the assets to trade into the middle of the first round.
--->Drafting a SF will allow us to sign & trade Gomes and possibly package him with a bad contract.

[revprodeji]

We would have no rush to trade Gomes. Even with Beasley. He still makes a great 6th man.

We could start a traditional line-up

Center/Al/Beasley/Brew/Foye
Then go "fast" with
Al/Beasley/Gomes/Brew/Foye.