You are about to make a trade....

[deeney0]

Even without a Josh Smith deal, I can see them coming to MIN asking for Belinelli for our TPE, and MIN stonewalling, saying, "Did you see what we got for our other TPE? Carney and a 1st! You think we'd deal this one away for your bench player?"

I don't get that at all. Why should GS give up a pick to dump Marco? Marco doesn't make anything, and the Warriors can just not pick up his option later on if they aren't interested. In the meantime, they are not near the lux tax line so there is no reason to dump a player.

shrink is pointing out that the Wolves got paid a first to take back Carney and Booth so the Sixers could offer Brand more money, and suggesting the Warriors might be in a similar situation with regards to Smith. But I don't think the situation is similar. Someone would want Belinelli for free if nothing else.

[Tirion]

No chance.

elaborate?

[shrink]

I don't get that at all. Why should GS give up a pick to dump Marco? Marco doesn't make anything, and the Warriors can just not pick up his option later on if they aren't interested. In the meantime, they are not near the lux tax line so there is no reason to dump a player.

shrink is pointing out that the Wolves got paid a first to take back Carney and Booth so the Sixers could offer Brand more money, and suggesting the Warriors might be in a similar situation with regards to Smith. But I don't think the situation is similar. Someone would want Belinelli for free if nothing else.

Thanks deeney. I'm not saying that MIN would want a 1st .. I'm saying that I could see them holding out on giving up their TPE for him, and want other incentive (in this case, a McCants-Wright swap)

I did a little poking around to find out which teams had current TPE's to offer for Belinelli, and the list is short:

$5,205,000 Chicago (Joe Smith) - Expires roughly Feb. 21, 2009
$1,629,120 Cleveland (Cedric Simmons) - Expires roughly Feb. 21, 2009
$10,000,000 Denver (Camby) - Expires roughly July 16, 2009
$2,284,200 Houston (Bonzi) - Expires roughly Feb. 22, 2009
$2,699,140 Indiana (J.O'Neal) - Expires roughly July 9, 2009
$1,440,960 Minnesota (G.Green) - Expires roughly Feb. 21, 2009
$3,308,503 New Jersey (Kidd) - Expires roughly Feb. 20, 2009
$1,889,760 OK City (Delonte West) - Expires roughly Feb. 21, 2009
$1,747,096 San Antonio (Udrih) - Expires roughly Oct. 30, 2008

Now, of these nine, I think we can agree we can eliminate anybody who'd have to pay double for him because they are over the lux, or too close to risk it (CLE, DEN, HOU, IND, NJN). To be honest, MIN is getting pretty close as well. CHI's probably out too, because of the uncertainty with Gordon and Deng. That leaves MIN, OK City, and San Antonio. Now we can look at fit:

The fit isn't there for OK. They have Ridnour and Watson at PG and drafted Westbrook. At SG, they are convinced that's where Durant can play .. out of position to accomodate Green at SF. Wilkins is there too .. I just don't see a team trying to keep its finances down and moving to the south having much interest in using a TPE on Belinelli. I suppose its possible that they could take Belinelli and a full $3 mil in cash .. release him .. and pocket the difference, similar to the deal Glen Taylor did last year with the Spurs. But would GSW pony up even the off-the-books cash?

Speaking of San Antonio -- maybe they'd use their TPE on Belinelli. They have had great success with Euro's before, and Roger Mason Jr. and Jacque Vaughn aren't powerhouses. They are at about $66 mil, so they have the room. The only question I'd have is whether the Spurs are set on another championship, and may want to keep money available to add veteran free agents on vet min deals?

I don't have anything against Belinelli, and I think he may be worth his contract, but TPE's don't grow on trees, and its no guarantee GSW could find another suitor if MIN stonewalled. I don't know if its even likely .. I'm just putting together a couple rumors and putting them in a financial context.

[shrink]

would you give up a player like mike miller for brendan wright+expirings in 2010?

I've listened to the GSW rant on why Brandan Wright is so valuable, and I'm not impressed.

"Look, he's a lottery player. He's a big. We picked him knowing that he was a project. We didn't expect great things right away. Its all Nellie's fault anyway, he hates him and won't give him playing time. But with this guy's size and tools, you can see he's going to be a star."

Excuse me, but the GSW front office, and the posters here, don't have a lot of credibility with me. This is the exact same thing they were saying about Patrick O'Bryant a year ago.

[shrink]

This is what I'm talking about, over at the GSW board:

would you guys consider trading b.wright (+expiring in 2010) for someone like mike miller (+filler)?

Maybe if that filler is Love
Love + Miller 4 Harrington + Wright

Corey Brewer has been a pretty big disappointment over his pro career so far and certainly doesn't have the same value as Wright. McCants is a nice player, but I don't think you give up a 20 year old lotto pick big man for him. Same goes for Foye.

[mayorhoiberg]

Wow. I thought Wolves fans were delusional. That's not just overrating; that's insanity.

[karch34]

This is what I'm talking about, over at the GSW board:

would you guys consider trading b.wright (+expiring in 2010) for someone like mike miller (+filler)?

Maybe if that filler is Love
Love + Miller 4 Harrington + Wright

Corey Brewer has been a pretty big disappointment over his pro career so far and certainly doesn't have the same value as Wright. McCants is a nice player, but I don't think you give up a 20 year old lotto pick big man for him. Same goes for Foye.

Wow. I'm almost speechless. I guess just because you're a fan of a team doesn't mean you know anything about the NBA or it's players. That's Knick-like mentality.

[Wingman]

GS fans who are convinced that Wright will be a superstar is the reason I wanted this deal to get done. I love seeing fans backtrack on what they said and realize the true value of their players.

[shrink]

You gotta give the GSW press credit for realizing how close the Warriors are to the lux now that they signed Biedrins. Most news sources don't know or care.

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... uxury_tax/

It will make our TPE look more appealing to them, and a little easier to sell to the fans.

[NW]

You gotta give the GSW press credit for realizing how close the Warriors are to the lux now that they signed Biedrins. Most news sources don't know or care.

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... uxury_tax/

It will make our TPE look more appealing to them, and a little easier to sell to the fans.

LOL! Don't count on it. As the saying goes, "close only counts in horseshoes and handgranades" They're not there and Iut wouldn't be much to dump Watson, Morrow or Hendrix.

As for Wright, there is overstatement (Warriors fans) and understatement (others) regarding him and there's no assurance of what he'll be. But there seems to a mistake on his place in the rotation. The Banks guy is wrong. He's a PF and he's got one guy ahead of him - Harrington- who plays two other positions in this offense from time to time.

He'll get ample opportunity.

[TheFranchise21]

I would put Brewer and Wright even right now in terms of development.

[shrink]

You gotta give the GSW press credit for realizing how close the Warriors are to the lux now that they signed Biedrins. Most news sources don't know or care.

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... uxury_tax/

It will make our TPE look more appealing to them, and a little easier to sell to the fans.

LOL! Don't count on it. As the saying goes, "close only counts in horseshoes and handgranades" They're not there and Iut wouldn't be much to dump Watson, Morrow or Hendrix.

Well, teams generally prefer to have a little roster space to make moves during the season. Being close to the lux, and the added penalty of losing a lux share, usually make TPE's look more appealing to any team. GSW has demonstrated sensitivity to the lux in the past, so I can think of no reason they'd be immune now.

BTW, Watson's $711,517 contract became guaranteed on Friday, but Morrow and Hendrix are unguaranteed at $442,114 each, I believe.

[Quackenboss]

the Ws just let a $10M TPE expire and then had ~$18M in capspace with which to work. Foyle gets his remaining ~$7M this year and then he's off the books next year. Turiaf's contract is frontloaded. Monta will get $11M a year each year for the next 6 years, $9M (+incentives) each year for Biedrins--no raises. Perovic may be bought out this summer. Jackson and Harrington expire before we have to resign anyone else. Our finances are fine.

Mullin traded JRich last year and let the $10M TPE expire largely so he wouldn't be held over a barrel and have to make unfavorable trades in order to avoid the luxury tax and/or be able to resign our RFAs.

I know you guys got some nice compensation for helping Philly clear space for Brand, and maybe there was talk of Minny getting something from us in exchange for facilitating a Josh Smith S&T, but GSW has no need to dump Belinelli or Wright otherwise.

OTOH, any interest in Corey Maggette?

[shrink]

the Ws just let a $10M TPE expire and then had ~$18M in capspace with which to work. Foyle gets his remaining ~$7M this year and then he's off the books next year. Turiaf's contract is frontloaded. Monta will get $11M a year each year for the next 6 years, $9M (+incentives) each year for Biedrins--no raises. Perovic may be bought out this summer. Jackson and Harrington expire before we have to resign anyone else. Our finances are fine.

Mullin traded JRich last year and let the $10M TPE expire largely so he wouldn't be held over a barrel and have to make unfavorable trades in order to avoid the luxury tax and/or be able to resign our RFAs.

This demonstrates that you'll be fine with the lux starting in 2009-10, and your owner is very sensitive to breaching the lux threshold.

When you've signed your FA's and you have less than $1 mil in flexibility, most teams need to find extra space. Injuries, 10-day or vet min contracts, a favorable trade or something else may occur before May of 2009. Finally, just how "unfavorable" do you think it is to get out from a contract for your third string SG behind Corey Maggette, Monta Ellis and Kelanna Azubuike (S Jax doesn't play any SG, does he?)? Over here he'd be a third stringer too, backing up the PG and SG spots. I think he's worth his contract to a team where he fits.