Before and After

[shrink]

I was just examining the team statistics last year on a different question, and I stumbled across something that I thought was pretty interesting.

We all know that we were a much better team after the All Star break, as our young players developed and got used to playing together. Foye replaced Telfair, etc. Our offense seemed to flow a lot better. But I was surprised at how extreme the difference was.

PRE ALL STAR BREAK: 93.3 PPG, FG 43.7% (28th in NBA), 3P 33.1% (28th)

POST ALL STAR BREAK: 99.5 PPG, FG 47.4% (9th), 3P 38.8% (7th)

The additions of Mike Miller

16.4 PPG, FG 50.2%, 3P 43.2%

and Kevin Love

(UCLA) 17. 5 PPG, FG 55.9%, 3P 35.4%

.. are only going to improve those numbers, as will the continued development of all our young players. There will be an initial learning curve, as all the new players become accustomed to playing together, but I think Kevin Love was right .. the Wolves are not going to have any trouble scoring this year.

[Squire]

Yep wolves are looking pretty good this year.

[C.lupus]

I agree scoring won't be a problem. Keeping the other team from scoring on the other hand...

[TMo519]

Yeah, defense will be a little bit of an issue, but I think we're collecting some smart players who might be able to compensate some for their lack of individual ability to still provide decent team defense. I don't think we'll have to be a shut down team to win games cause offensively, they should score in the 100s a lot. In reality, the only thing it takes to play just okay defense even is some discipline, something young players typically just don't have. But as this team grows I think they will get better and better defensively.

[Mcfale313]

i dont want Love to remember too much about his 35.4% college level 3 pt percentage though...just dont shoot from the 3 and stay in the paint or high post with Jefferson

[TheFranchise21]

How about our record? What was our W-L after the break?

[4ho5ive]

wasnt it like 15-26?

[stop-n-pop]

It's not as simple as records and points scored. Here's a run down we had earlier at Hoopus:

http://www.canishoopus.com/2008/4/23/41 ... ey-improve

Here's how they broke down month by month:

Month PtsScored PtsAllowed Diff Record
Nov 93.9 101.5 -7.6 2-12
Dec 93.1 102.9 -9.8 2-14
Jan 94.3 100.6 -6.3 5-10
Feb 92.0 96.9 -4.9 3-9
Mar 100.0 103.3 -3.3 7-8
Apr 101.7 110.6 -8.9 3-7


It doesn't transfer well here, but after Foye got back, the offense increased, but not as much as the defense decreased in late March and April. After Bassy went down on the 10th, the DRtg of this club dipped. Granted, there are other factors, but Foye coming back gave the team a shot in the offensive arm but it there were some bad signs on the defensive end of the court. Here's one of our main conclusions:

"Outside of the 1st 2 horrible months, the Wolves went 18-34 while scoring 97 ppg and giving up 102.85. Since Foye came back you can add about 3 points to each average. And therein lies the big problem: there wasn't any real improvement; just an addition of a (relatively) important player who is better on offense than he is on defense."

...on the good side of all of this, is an interesting question:

"Do the Wolves play better with better defense or better offense? In their current poor shooting, let's-not-get-to-the-line form, the Wolves are clearly a team that would fare better in a more up-tempo environment. If they're going to win, they need shot volume, solid rebounding, to limit silly fouls, and gamble for turnovers. In plain English (and with an eye on the upcoming draft): can a defensive minded center bridge the gap between 92.0 and 96.9 easier than a perimeter efficient wing player between 100.0 and 103.3? As long as the defense doesn't fall off the deep end like it did in April, the Wolves have a fighting chance next season. If they can hold their opponents within the range of 102-104 ppg, they have some nice developing offensive tools to remain in the game and keep things interesting. Once you have a true-to-form 2nd scorer and another season or two of Foye and/or Shaddy showing that they can hit from 40%+ from range, then you add the center to help bridge any remaining gap in point differential."


While they made some improvements after the all star break (as mentioned above), they gave up just as much to their opponents: DFG went from 46.3 to 48.5, the Wolves rebounding went down by nearly 3 boards/game (most of the loss was on the offensive boards), and while 3pfg went up, attempts went down by nearly 2 1/2 per game.

The Wolves were a terrible, terrible team in November and December. They had their best streth of ball from Feb to mid-March. However, around mid-March things went south and they played about as well as they did in December, going 3-7 down the stretch in the dog days of the NBA. I'm not sure that qualifies as a solid "they were better after the break". Their big goal should be to keep their defense between Jan and Feb levels while improving their offense. If we move to eff numbers, they need to shoot for ORtg/DRtgs in the 109 range. This year is about getting that number as close to even as possible. As for overall improvement last year:

"As a team, the Wolves most certainly did not improve throughout the year. Foye simply came back and played well enough for them to knock off a few more wins against the likes of the Clips and Grizz. Pace, DPace, FTM/FTA, DFTM/DFTA, eFG%, DeFG%...the list goes on and on; the Wolves had a series of important numbers that remained consistent throughout the year. Outside of a slight uptick in eFG% after the ASB (which can be tied to a single player more than actual team play), they were the same team they were at the beginning of the year + Foye. They had the same issues, played the same style, had the same deficiencies, and so on and so forth. I'm not sure if you can call this improvement."