Where Would Craig Smith Fit?

[shrink]

Here's a half-hearted attempt"

NOH TRADES: Tyson Chandler, Mike James, Rasual Butler, Hilton Armstrong
NOH GETS: Brad Miller + Sean Singletary

SAC TRADES: Brad Miller, Sean Singletary
SAC GETS: Mike James, Rasual Butler, Hilton Armstrong, UTA prot 1st

MIN TRADES: Rashad McCants, Craig Smith, Jason Collins (exp), UTA prot 1st
MIN GETS: Tyson Chandler

Why for NOH: I like Craig Smith in NO, and I think McCants would fit well in New Orleans too with Pargo gone, and they could also use Jason Collins expiring deal, since Chris Paul's extension puts them squarely in the lux. I understand this is pretty unlikely with their record last year, but they simply don't have the trade assets to fix all theor problems without touching their own big three. The deal removes bad salary and turns it into production and maintains Julian Wright. Brad Miller was 14 PPG, 9.5 RPG. .. in fact, I estimate this deal adds 20 PPG.

Chris Paul / Singletary
Mo Peterson / McCants
Peja / Posey / Wright
West / Craig Smith / Ely
Brad Miller / Jason Collins

Why for SAC: They aren't going anywhere with Brad Miller this year. This opens minutes for Hawes and Hilton Armstrong, and keeps Mikki Moore there for security. Armstrong is a late lottery prospect, and they get a protected pick. One of the problems they express in the rumored "Miller for Nocioni + Cedric Simmons + future 1st" deal is that as a rebuilding team, they don't want to add the Nocioni deal that runs until 2013. Like Miller, James and Butler both expire in two years, so they don't mess up their summer 2010 cap space with them, unlike Nocioni.

Why for MIN: MIN turns three rotation players and a pick into Chandler, a great rebounder and shot blocker and good help defender to pair with Al Jefferson. He's not developed offensively, and he's expensive ($37 mil over the next three years), but he's young (not quite 26) very athletic, and I think he'd be a good fit.

[Klomp]

Hornets say hell no, we say hell yes, Kings are in between

[shrink]

Hornets say hell no, we say hell yes, Kings are in between

I think you're probably right. I checked a bit on the price for Brad Miller, and since the Nocioni deal has been very public, I think the price is close on him. The problem is pricing Chandler, because he's quite clearly not in any trade offers.

The reason I brought it up is that I think the Hornets will struggle to not decline next season. There three young starters could get a little better, though I have to think they are pretty close to their ceiling. On the other hand, Peja (35+ min average last year) will most likely decline with age and his back issues, Bonzi for Posey is a wash (offense for defense), and Pargo, who was very valuable for them last year, has flown the coop. Who's left? Mo Pete averaged 8 PPG, but nobody else on their weak bench scored more than 5 PPG. on a very weak bench. Getting the Collins expiring would save them about $15 mil next season. Here's their line-up next year:

PG Chris Paul Mike James
SG Morris Peterson Rasual Butler Mike James
SF Peja Stojakovic James Posey Julian Wright
PF David West Melvin Ely Julian Wright
C Tyson Chandler Hilton Armstrong

As good as Chris Paul is, and as under-rated as David West is, that team is simply not deep enough to be near the top of the Western Conference next season. One injury to their Big Three could even mean missing the play-offs entirely. In my view, they have to do something, and outside of the Big Three, the team is almost entirely negative value. Ely is their only expiring, and they didn't get anything for Bonzi or Pargo - the two productive guys. I suppose there's some interest in Wright (2.1 RPG, 3.9 PPG), but he certainly doesn't have enough trade value to complete this team. New Orleans is already over the lux, and they used the full MLE on Posey, so they won't be buying free agent help either. Paul and West seemed unmovable to me .. Chandler seemed like the only possibility.

I'm not saying I disagree. Perhaps this isn't the deal for them. Maybe they can get Brad Miller by using Julian Wright and their own pick, or they can gamble on a lower character guy with good production to help. I'm just saying they need to do something.

[Worm Guts]

Even with that pessimistic view of NO, I don't understand how trading Chandler for Miller improves the team. Is there some sort of economic view you're looking at?

[shrink]

Even with that pessimistic view of NO, I don't understand how trading Chandler for Miller improves the team. Is there some sort of economic view you're looking at?

Its plugging other holes.

I certainly agree that Brad Miller < Tyson Chandler, but not by as much as you think (13.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG vs 11.8 PPG, 11.8 RPG). Miller is better offensively (his points are a lot fewer put backs), and he's a better passer by far, but Chandler is better defensively and a better blocker. Tyson's contract fits what he does -- not a great deal but not a bad one either. $12.25/yr ave for 3 years, Miller is $11.8 for 2 years.

But the downgrade does three other things:

1. It adds McCants, who has starter potential for NO, and can cover some of the point loss that Pargo's departure will cause.

2. It adds Craig Smith, who is a step up over Ely and can provide low-post scoring with Collins.

3. Perhaps the biggest piece here is Jason Collins, and his expiring deal. This would give NO a legitimate back-up (no, Hilton isn't there yet), save $15 mil next season when Collins gets them back under the lux, and since Miller's contract expires a year earlier, they cut off $13 more for Summer 2010.

SUMMARY:

Chandler 1.0 APG 11.8 RPG 11.8 PPG
MkJames 0.3 APG 0.8 RPG 2.7 PPG
RsButler 0.7 APG 2.0 RPG 4.9 PPG
Armstrng 0.4 APG 2.5 RPG 2.7 PPG
-----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 2.4 APG 17.1 RPG 22.1 PPG

BrdMiller 3.7 APG 9.5 RPG 13.4 PPG
McCants 2.2 APG 2.8 RPG 14.9 PPG
CrgSmith 0.8 APG 4.6 RPG 9.4 PPG
JasCollins 0.2 APG 2.9 RPG 2.6 PPG
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 6.9 APG 19.8 RPG 40.3 PPG

$28 MIL in Savings

Now I can certainly understand New Orleans saying that Tyson Chandler is off-limits. He's the best player in the deal. However, this is the kind of deal I'd expect for a fairly paid border-line star. They take a hit at center, but still get a vet center with good numbers and play-off experience. They move two bad contracts, and get two players that are solidly in the rotation. They upgrade their overall production, and they save a truly massive amount of money.

::shrug::

[NO-KG-AI]

Well if we trade Chandler for Miller, we destroy our offensive continuity, we can't run the high screen and roll as well, and he and West cramp each other's spots on the floor.... not to mention we lose our post defensive presence, and a guy who was second in rebounding playing next to another 9 rpg guy on an extremely slow paced team....

Not to mention Armstrong is our only other big outside of the starters that deserves any PT at all. I don't like that we sold a draft pick when we needed depth, but I'm not trading for older, less productive players....

I'd like to add Smith, but if it's not on the cheap, we really can't afford it, ya know?

[shrink]

I'm was hoping you'd post, NO-KG-AI.

MIN's needs are a third string PG, a chance to move Cardinal, or some future considerations. I agree Smith would be a good fit with a big defensive center, but I don't see how NO can provide either of the first two, and the third is questionable. Smith is more developed than your young players, but I think matching value to a degree that both sides would find fair is pretty unlikely.

What are the Hornets saying about their depth and next year's finances?

[shrink]

One more point about Craig Smith trades.

Smith may only be $2.3 mil, but he made so little last year, he's $2.3 mil that's base year compensation. Unless he gets picked up by a TPE or a team under the salary cap (MEM), he needs to be combined with another Wolf in a trade.

Here's a list of teams with TPE's in place that do not expire before Dec 15th.

CHI $5,205,000
DEN $10,000,000
IND $2,995,600
OKC $2,991,135
ORL $3,300,000
PHO $3,966,207

So who has a strong defensive center and no lux issues?

I'd be looking for the TPE, and either a protected 1st, or maybe the rights to pick swap one of our many picks. I'm not seeing anything attractive on first look. Can he play with Noah? Foster's an expiring, and they already have 16 guys under contract.

Looks like a multi-player trade to me.

[NO-KG-AI]

I'm was hoping you'd post, NO-KG-AI.

MIN's needs are a third string PG, a chance to move Cardinal, or some future considerations. I agree Smith would be a good fit with a big defensive center, but I don't see how NO can provide either of the first two, and the third is questionable. Smith is more developed than your young players, but I think matching value to a degree that both sides would find fair is pretty unlikely.

What are the Hornets saying about their depth and next year's finances?

Yea, I don't think we can afford Smith to be honest, but I do really want him if the price was right.

I don't even know if we can trade anyone to be honest, it looks like we won't even resign pargo, and Mike James was horrible in limited play last year, so I don't know what we will do there with our full MLE spent.

Byron wants to develop Julian Wright as the backup PG, but he's not ready for that yet I don't think.

[Dewey]

Well around here on these boards, apparently Gomes is a hidden gem as a PF, so Smith is virtually expendable. Play the small-ball card or whatever you want to call it, but Gomes is no PF. If we want to believe he is, then we dump Gomes, Collins, Cardinal, and Smith asap. THen get a real post-player.

Currently, Smith and Maddog are 5-10 minute players on average NBA teams. Gomes is a 30-second player at PF (or until the next available timeout is called) unless we're scrimmaging a D-II college team. So that leaves Jefferson, Love, and Collins. Therefore, we "need" depth at post. Smith is a nice limited role player, but has limited ability to help fix our problem. Gomes has virtually zero impact on out post position.