Young Jefferson keeps getting better
By Brian McKitish
Special to ESPN.com
The changing of the guard among fantasy PF/C's hasn't begun just yet, but the day is swiftly approaching. By this time next year, there won't be much of a question as to whether you should be selecting Al Jefferson or Tim Duncan on draft day. At the moment, Big Al and Timmy are extremely close in value. In fact, they are back-to-back on my personal PF/C ranking list, with Jefferson slightly ahead. The Big Fundamental still has plenty left in his tank, but while there is no doubt that Big Al is on the upswing, there are some questions as to when Duncan will start to slow down after 11 years in the league. When we are talking about two relatively similar big men, any decline in skill, no matter how slight, will make a big difference.
Of course, any erosion of skill for Duncan likely will take some time. He's not going to suffer a fall-off-a-cliff type of decline like Ben Wallace did, that's for sure. But what if the slow deterioration has already begun? Aside from his work on the boards and his free-throw percentage, Timmy's per-minute numbers slumped ever so slightly in 2007-08. The downward trend only affects Duncan's overall value slightly, but it hurts his chances when going head-to-head against a player on the rise like Jefferson.
This argument, however, is much more about Jefferson's strengths than it is about Duncan's shortcomings. Big Al's meteoric rise to the top was questioned by many heading into 2007-08. They said he wouldn't be able to handle constant double-teams as the only real scoring option on a struggling Timberwolves team, ignoring the fact that he did exactly that a season before in Boston. Not too many will question whether he's for real these days, though. Not after he silenced his critics with 21.0 points, 11.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 1.5 blocks while shooting 50 percent from the floor in Minnesota last season. Those are impressive numbers for a kid who is still just 23 heading into the season. Most encouraging is his constant improvement in nearly every relevant fantasy category.
He's already operating at an elite level, but he hasn't hit his ceiling yet, and there's even more upside where that came from. He has some help on the offensive end with Mike Miller, Kevin Love and a healthy Randy Foye in the fold. Now, Jefferson won't have to face as many double-teams as he did last season. And since Miller and Love are such great ball distributors, Jefferson should enjoy more open looks and a corresponding bump in scoring and field goal percentage.
I'll buy the argument that Duncan should benefit from the injury to Manu Ginobili. The Spurs will be forced to lean heavily on him early in the season, so he'll probably be a better option than Jefferson in the first half. Jefferson, however, will own Duncan once Manu returns. The argument I won't buy is Duncan's improvement from the free-throw line. Don't be fooled. He has a proven history of inconsistency from the line. Jefferson, on the other hand, has improved his free-throw shooting, not to mention the rest of his game, each and every year he has been in the league.
Veteran Duncan still among the elite
By Adam Madison
Special to ESPN.com
There are big gaps between "good," "great" and "elite." Al Jefferson went from good to great, but it's another beast entirely to step up to elite, the level Tim Duncan has been at since his rookie season.
Since Duncan is such a great player in real basketball, he's not nearly as affected by the team around him as Jefferson is. Duncan has proven he gets his stats no matter how good (or bad) the players he's playing with are; not many players could average 19 and 11 with two other All-NBA players on their team. But now it's Jefferson who has to prove he can get his numbers with a lot more offensive talent around him. Kevin Love averaged 17.5 points and 10.6 rebounds at UCLA as a freshman, and Mike Miller has averaged 18.5 and 16.4 points the past two seasons. Toss in a full season from a healthy Randy Foye, who averaged 18.4 points this past April, and the sharp-shooting Rashad McCants (14.9 points, 40.7 three-point percentage), and it's evident that Jefferson has to get even better just to duplicate last season's numbers!
It's very risky to assume young players who put up gaudy numbers will improve on those numbers the next season just because they're young. Jefferson got as many shots as he wanted last season, but he'll need to be more efficient offensively going forward; he needed 17.6 field goal attempts to get 21.1 points, and only got to the line 4.8 times. Duncan, for his career, averages 16.3 attempts for 21.6 points, and 7.3 trips to the line. Jefferson also averaged 2.0 turnovers to 1.4 assists; Duncan averages 3-plus assists per game. Some players just top out as "very good;" Jefferson has to prove he can take the next jump to the elite level. Getting to the line less than five times per game isn't going to get it done.
By all accounts, it's easier to put up big numbers for a bad team than it is to do the same on an elite team. Not only does that imply Jefferson will have a harder time producing, it means Duncan's production is set to rise too. It's been a while since the real Tim Duncan has stood up in the regular season, but he'll have to now with Manu Ginobili's injury. In 2004-05, when Tony Parker and Ginobili averaged 16.6 and 16.0 points, respectively, Duncan averaged 20.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.6 blocks, and that was in 33 minutes. That seems like a decent approximation of the weight Duncan is going to have to pull, and even when Ginobili returns, this just isn't a loaded offensive team. Duncan is going to have to pull more weight whether Ginobili got injured or not.
Yes, Duncan's free-throw percentage is a worry, but his advantages over Jefferson in assists and blocks are large, especially considering they are scarce categories. Duncan is a better player and his team needs him more; if all but one indicator is in Duncan's favor, you have your clear winner.
these 2 analysts from ESPN compares TD and Big Al, I like McKitish's view better, but both writiers mentioned how the improved wolves outside shooting gangs should open up more open looks for Jefferson inside, I think we could well be a 7-years-younger-Spurs team if the team chemistry develops
Jefferson-Duncan,
Foye-Parker,
McCants-Finley,
Miller-Ginobli,
Brewer-Bowen
Love > Oberto
and we have a bunch of other young guys in Gomes, Carney, and Smith, Telfair, I see we really have a better and younger developing Spurs champion team there
Go Wolves!
Cant wait for the season to start! The first 3 games are totally winable for the wolves!!
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baske ... rsonduncan
