ImageImageImage

Adjusted +/- on 82games.com

Moderators: Domejandro, Worm Guts, Calinks

the_bruce
Analyst
Posts: 3,536
And1: 57
Joined: Jun 01, 2007

Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#1 » by the_bruce » Sat Nov 8, 2008 8:09 pm

New article\number thing on 82games.com, whos the first wolf you see. Yep thats Right McCants!

http://www.82games.com/ilardi2.htm
Devilzsidewalk
RealGM
Posts: 31,919
And1: 5,943
Joined: Oct 09, 2005

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#2 » by Devilzsidewalk » Sat Nov 8, 2008 8:21 pm

Jefferson is deep in the negative. 1 below Ricky Davis.

Brian Cardinal is 12th best in the NBA for players under 2000 minutes
Image
Calinks
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Forum Mod - Timberwolves
Posts: 48,306
And1: 14,098
Joined: Mar 29, 2006
   

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#3 » by Calinks » Sat Nov 8, 2008 8:24 pm

I hate plus and minus cause really whack players sometimes have huge plus numbers.
When luck shuts the door skill comes in through the window.
the_bruce
Analyst
Posts: 3,536
And1: 57
Joined: Jun 01, 2007

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#4 » by the_bruce » Sat Nov 8, 2008 8:35 pm

Its all about sample size imo. The 2k+ minute list should actually be fairly representative\accurate imo.

What I find really amusing....

Only 2 SG's above Shaddy...Manu & Kobe...

Who's next SG below Shad? VC...

I agree that these sorts of numbers can skew things, but I do find it Odd that Shad is listed this high.
C.lupus
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 30,811
And1: 8,832
Joined: Nov 02, 2007

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#5 » by C.lupus » Sat Nov 8, 2008 9:57 pm

I don't put much stock in it.

Big Al, Okafor, Al Thornton, Kevin Durant, and Rajon Rondo are all deep in the negative. Who here would not roll with that starting five?
the_bruce
Analyst
Posts: 3,536
And1: 57
Joined: Jun 01, 2007

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#6 » by the_bruce » Sun Nov 9, 2008 12:03 am

to win games I would not run that team...

Big al is of course going to be impacted the most negatively because he plays the most minutes on an inferior team. He sees the most players switching in and out, and he is by no means a great defender.

Okafor isn't an offensive beast and his defensive numbers are decent.

Durant a rookie and played horrific defense, also a volume shooter, shouldn't surprise anyone he was low.

Thornton is not a great defender, not really a surprise.

Rondo? On a fantastic team, played lots of minutes and often played when 2nd unit players came in, so he would obviously be affected by large swings on offense.

Most of the bottom players are one way players to be honest. It's reflected in their off\deff +/- too
User avatar
andyhop
Analyst
Posts: 3,585
And1: 1,272
Joined: May 08, 2007
   

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#7 » by andyhop » Mon Nov 10, 2008 12:35 pm

Basketballvalue have this year's Adjusted +/- numbers.

Best on team Foye +45.8.
Worst on team Miller -45 .

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2008-2009&team=MIN
"Football is not a matter of life and death...it's much more important than that."- Bill Shankley
shrink
RealGM
Posts: 54,497
And1: 13,818
Joined: Sep 26, 2005

Re: Adjusted +/- on 82games.com 

Post#8 » by shrink » Mon Nov 10, 2008 4:05 pm

I was initially enamored with the stat, but I don't put a lot of stock in it now. Its a good idea that doesn't work in real life, because interaction effects overwhelm results.

Al Jefferson doesn't have a big negative because he's a bad player. Al has a big negative because when he is on the floor, four other guys are out there with him who, as a group of five, are often less talented than the other team's five players. Does that mean Al is bad, because his number is low? Not at all. It means some of the other starters for the Wolves aren't that strong, and isolating the blame on Al is the same as saying the reason the Wolves lost so many games in the past was because of Garnett.

Conversely, McCants number has been high because MIN's bench, I feel, is pretty good. Many teams have 5 bona fide, highly paid starters, and try to make do with also-rans for their bench. MIN isn't like that, and we have several borderline starters on our bench competing for starting spots (since many of our starters aren't all that great). In any event, we have 3-4 players in our second unit that are better than those we face, and they should get positive +/- values.

The adjusted +/- stat is an interesting piece of information, but basketball is too much of a team game to put much validity into it, particularly as a tool to compare players.

Return to Minnesota Timberwolves