Odds of Wolves finishing with the worst record in the league

Krapinsky · Post #1 » by **Krapinsky** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 8:45 pm

I'd say 3:2, maybe even 5:4.

Our main competition as of this point:

OKC: Green and Westbrook are both showing flashes and they just signed Krstic (3years/15 million) who was averaging 16/7 before he was injured.

WIZ: Arenas should be back before the end of the year.

MEM: Have been playing really well lately. Already at 9 wins.

GS: Ellis coming back.

LAC: Been playing better since Kaman went down. And just beat us.

SAC: Best player, Martin, is out indefinitely, but young big man are showing flashes. Plus they just beat us.

PeeDee · Post #2 » by **PeeDee** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:09 pm

To get to a record most of us would've been modestly happy with, 30 wins, the Wolves will have to finish 26-31.

To avoid repeating or getting worse than last year's 22-60 record, the Wolves will have to go 19-38 the rest of the way to end up 23-59.

Depressing numbers indeed. I'm guessing they end up with 20-25 wins which will put them in the running for worst record in the league.

john2jer · Post #3 » by **john2jer** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:17 pm

And I think the odds of us getting the 5th pick after finishing with the worst record is EVEN. You know Stern's going to screw us again.

TrentTuckerForever · Post #4 » by **TrentTuckerForever** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:49 pm

john2jer wrote:And I think the odds of us getting the 5th pick after finishing with the worst record is EVEN. You know Stern's going to screw us again.

I dunno... if McHale gets fired as coach after the season and the Wolves bring in someone competent, maybe they'd get a break from the powers that be.

shrink · Post #5 » by **shrink** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 10:18 pm

Put me down for 1-in-5, and don't forget there might be a team or two that sells all its talent to rebuild.

john2jer · Post #6 » by **john2jer** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 10:30 pm

TrentTuckerForever wrote:
john2jer wrote:And I think the odds of us getting the 5th pick after finishing with the worst record is EVEN. You know Stern's going to screw us again.

I dunno... if McHale gets fired as coach after the season and the Wolves bring in someone competent, maybe they'd get a break from the powers that be.

Wait, just did some math, mostly in my head, so it might be wrong.

Worst record in the league means 1st pick. Most number of teams that can jump you is 3 because that's all they draw balls for.

1 + 3 = 4, not 5. I might be wrong on that, I don't have a calculator. So I'm pretty sure it's even odds we'll get the 4th pick.

Can anyone back me up on my revised math?

Krapinsky · Post #7 » by **Krapinsky** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 10:42 pm

Yes. The worst record means we would have to get a top 4 pick. And yes 1 + 3 does = 4.

5 to 1 Shrink?? Would you like to put some money on that?

john2jer · Post #8 » by **john2jer** » Fri Dec 19, 2008 10:45 pm

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:Yes. The worst record means we would have to get a top 4 pick. And yes 1 + 3 does = 4.

5 to 1 Shrink?? Would you like to put some money on that?

You positive on that 1+3=4? Did you use an Excel spreadsheet to come up with that answer? :wink:

shrink · Post #9 » by **shrink** » Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:42 pm

Dr.Krapinsky wrote:Yes. The worst record means we would have to get a top 4 pick. And yes 1 + 3 does = 4.

5 to 1 Shrink?? Would you like to put some money on that?

You think we'll be the worst? Or just that the odds are appealing?

The completely non-mathematical way I'm looking at it is that we're a game in front of OKC, and I think they are a worse team than we are. So that's 2.5 to 1 right there. WAS has an identical record, and they're messed up, but they are better. 3-to-1. SAC is 7-20, and probably looking for any deal that lets them send away Brad Miller to play Hawes. 4-to-1. Lots of other teams in the league are out there that can fail (CHA, IND, GSW, TOR, NYK, MEM, LAC). The field gets me to 5-to-1.

Finally, we're really horrible right now, but we're young, and I have to imagine we'll improve. Love just keeps getting better. Foye's got potential, but lacks consistency. Mike Miller will be getting healthy and better looks under McHale and as the team learns to set better screens to free him.

As for the bet though, I'm going to pass. After watching a game, the only thing that makes it a little better for me is recalculating the lottery ball odds. When I'm watching a game, I can't help but root for the wolves, and I'm certainly not against betting on the team I want to win to make the game more fun, but my rational side keeps looking at next year, so a bet would only make my conflicted fandom even more conflicted.