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Cap analysis: good news/bad news

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Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#1 » by YogiStewart » Thu Sep 5, 2013 10:45 am

http://capgeek.com/mapleleafs/

The Leafs are in an interesting cap space.

First, for 2013-14: they have $5 million in space and have 2 key players unsigned - Fransen and Kadri. Not sure what magic can be done to make space to sign both of these players, but unless you can get Fransen at $2 mi/year (unlikely) and Kadri and $3 mil/year and both on short-term deals, then you have a mess. Makes you wonder about the offseason contracts to Clarckson and Bozak. even shaving $500 000/year on both of those contracts would have made it THAT much easier to sign 2 young talents.

2014 onward: so do you want to the good news or the bad news?
the Leafs have around $35 mil in contracts. add in the $5 mil for Fransen and Kadri (we assume) and we're up to $40 mil. hope they sign Gardiner to a new contract at around $3 mil/year, assume the cap goes up to $70 mil, and the Leafs have a whopping $27 mil in cap space. that's pretty nice.

the problem:
they have little to no core.

the Leafs have two significant UFAs - Kessel and Phaneuf - which results in major salary shedding IF they walk away. if you're a Leafs' fan, you pray that Phaneuf walks away. In fact, you pray that the Leafs are out of the playoffs early enough this year and they can trade Phaneuf for some draft picks and get something instead of just cap space upon his departure. If some other team is dumb enough to offer Phaneuf close to $6 mil/year to play next year, i'd celebrate. but...that still leaves top 4 D minutes open.

Kessel leaving is more of a problem. he's a talent. is he a franchise player? debatable. was he underpaid last year at $5.4 mil? probably. Does he deserve $6 mil/year (or more)? I would be scared to offer him that, since i wouldn't necessarily peg him as a game changer or playoff menace. in the end, if he walks, his talent walks. and that's not good.

So, you weigh INSANE cap flexibility versus the truth abot the Toronto Maple Leafs: they do not have a strong, young core. the Leafs do have a good middle-aged core (Lupul will be 30, Clarkson will be 30, and JvR will be the baby at 25. and no, i refuse to consider Bozak to be part of the core. he hasn't shown that he's a legit #1 centre and is barely a #2 centre) and there may be some young gems on D (Gardiner: with how he was treated last year, you don't know what the club's thinking about him. Fransen: a good 2nd pairing D-man. Rielly: you hope he's ready next year but likely won't contribute much), but it isn't a core that has other teams necessarily shaking in their boots for years to come.

so, with that cap space, can you buy that core? or, better yet, can you trade 3rd and 4th round draft picks (a la the Bolland trade) for top 6 forwards to add to the core? and is that a secure plan in building for the future?
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#2 » by ATLTimekeeper » Thu Sep 5, 2013 2:51 pm

I covered this earlier. We can clear both raises to Phaneuf and Kessel with the expected increase in the cap and have room to spare. This is a good "show me" year for both of them, though. Phaneuf especially, since the majority of our depth is on D. Kessel has been awesome the past two seasons and definitely showed up in the playoffs (4 goals in 7 games, against Rask).

The bigger fear is that if they cut cheap short-term deals with Kadri/Franson now, they'll end up paying through the nose later on. In that sense, they ****ed themselves this off-season with some of the smaller deals. Clarkson and Bozak were market price. If we're talking about an extra million, that's where qualifying Frasor was a big mistake, or taking on part of Frattin's salary, or signing McLaren, or even going back earlier in the year, signing Holzer to a long-term deal.

The good news is that the Leafs aren't getting old anytime soon and after this off-seaon, won't have a UFA situation on a major piece come up for several years. The core is an overrated term in hockey. Good goalie, strong D, and the ability to score on 3 lines is a good recipe for a winner. The Leafs currently can score on all three lines, they're goaltending is solid, with the potential of being above average and their D is suspect but has blue chippers on the way and lots of depth.

EDIT: Actually, I take that back. I don't think they'll score much on their 3rd line.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#3 » by YogiStewart » Fri Sep 6, 2013 2:26 am

goalies, cap-wise, are very over-rated.
a $6 mil/year goalie (Cory Crawford) vs a $2 million/year goalie (Bernier or Reimer). is the $4 mil/year difference for a 0.5 GAA difference that significant cap-wise or are you better off using that extra money to lure in a star forward/D-man?
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#4 » by Mohanad » Sun Sep 8, 2013 4:49 am

I love how people keep calling the fan to bitch about Kadri's worth in regards to the these contract negotiations..

Kadri, a 22 year-old point-per-game center, is worth a top 5 pick.

You only hope that your pick turns out to be as good as Kadri.

Here are picks #3-5 over the past few years that had a good chunk of games under their belt:

2004: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler
2005: Jack Johnson, Benoit Pouliot, Carey Price
2006: Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, Phil Kessel
2007: Kyle Turris, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner
2008: Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo, Luke Schenn

Out of those 15 players, you'd only clearly trade 4 of for Kadri: Price, Toews, Backstrom & Kessel.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#5 » by YogiStewart » Sun Sep 8, 2013 6:09 am

Mohanad wrote:You only hope that your pick turns out to be as good as Kadri.

Here are picks #3-5 over the past few years that had a good chunk of games under their belt:

2004: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler
2005: Jack Johnson, Benoit Pouliot, Carey Price
2006: Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, Phil Kessel
2007: Kyle Turris, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner
2008: Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo, Luke Schenn

Out of those 15 players, you'd only clearly trade 4 of for Kadri: Price, Toews, Backstrom & Kessel.


good sir,
what have you been smoking?
ignoring their contract $ or length, i would trade Kadri without hesitation for 3/4 of that list. without hesitation. Pietrangelo's not on yoru list? dude's a top 5 NHL D-man. Kadri? he had one good HALF season.
Bogosian and Wheeler would be well ahead of Kadri on my list.

gotta take your homer hat off, man. come back and discuss at the end of this season when Kadri has a resume to show us
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#6 » by Mohanad » Sun Sep 8, 2013 9:18 am

YogiStewart wrote:
Mohanad wrote:You only hope that your pick turns out to be as good as Kadri.

Here are picks #3-5 over the past few years that had a good chunk of games under their belt:

2004: Cam Barker, Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler
2005: Jack Johnson, Benoit Pouliot, Carey Price
2006: Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, Phil Kessel
2007: Kyle Turris, Thomas Hickey, Karl Alzner
2008: Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo, Luke Schenn

Out of those 15 players, you'd only clearly trade 4 of for Kadri: Price, Toews, Backstrom & Kessel.


good sir,
what have you been smoking?
ignoring their contract $ or length, i would trade Kadri without hesitation for 3/4 of that list. without hesitation. Pietrangelo's not on yoru list? dude's a top 5 NHL D-man. Kadri? he had one good HALF season.
Bogosian and Wheeler would be well ahead of Kadri on my list.

gotta take your homer hat off, man. come back and discuss at the end of this season when Kadri has a resume to show us


Trade Kadri without hesitation for 3/4 of that list? And you're asking someone what their smoking? :lol: You've been posting nothing but garbage about Kadri and the Leafs for the past few years. you were probably apart of the crew that wrote him off a few years ago when Wilson was dogging him meanwhile he got his first real crack this season and finished 21st in league scoring at 22 years old....put your money where your mouth is and bump this at the end of the season. sort of the same way you write off everything the Leafs do....still waiting for a reply after the crap you posted in the bolland thread.

Every team will have these problems going forward. Remember when the sky was falling because Luke Schenn hadn't signed?

Kadri and Franson need to realize they are essentially victims of bad timing. They had big years in a 48 game schedule and the cap has gone down. They are victims however of even worse timing, they are the first of the few young and upcoming RFA's on the Leafs..

Nonnis is dropping the ball on this with his strong arm tactics. Nonnis would have been better off clearing cap space to get both Kadri & Franson signed to long term deals rather than strong arming 2 key RFA's into bridge deals 2nd time for Franson.

You bridge deal depth players like Gunnarsson, Kulemin, you don't bridge deal key hogs moving forward. Those players you look for long term deals
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#7 » by YogiStewart » Sun Sep 8, 2013 11:44 am

you are talking about 2 separate things.
1. Nonnis dropping the ball with his cap management, which i 100% agree with.
2. assessing Kadri's skill/development level

I thought that Kadri was poorly managed by the Leafs. past and present tense, seeing that he's likely to miss training camp, which is downright stupid.

you cannot assess a player after 1 year of play, especially when it is a half season. and you don't proclaim him to be better than 3/4 of that list.

you're saying that if Nonnis called Mtl and offered Kadri for Price straight up, that Mtl would say yes?
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#8 » by Mohanad » Sun Sep 8, 2013 3:15 pm

Yeah Price was one of the 4 players that I would deal for Kadri.

100% agree with you Kadri being poorly managed by the Leafs (surprise, surprise...) How disastrous it would be for of a player of Kadri's development to miss training camp...

Bottom line is we've all seen Nonis' comment on the topic and I agree wholeheartedly. The ball is in Kadri's camp.

“If Naz can become the player that we think he can be and that he thinks he can be then he’s going to be a very wealthy man, but his body of work is pretty small,”

“He has had flashes of being a very good player and (Leafs head coach) Randy (Carlyle) has done a good job of putting him in situations where he’s been able to have success, but we need to see him over a couple-year period to see if he can be a consistent player.


The bridge contract is a gamble, if he becomes what many of us believe in two years he might cost as much as Kessel gets in his next deal. hopefully it gets resolved eventually... leave it up to the Leafs to screw this up
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#9 » by YogiStewart » Mon Sep 9, 2013 12:00 pm

cap situation will take a further hit if Mason Raymond's offered a contract.
1-2 years at $1.5 mil/year, i'd guess.
really not sure what Nonnis is doing for this season
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#10 » by Mohanad » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:07 am

could actually be a good fit. the guys got wheels, plays well on specials teams (replaces some of the PKing we lost from Komarov) and could use another bottom 6 winger actually. you can't underestimate the value of speed and puck possession in the neutral zone. Losing Grabovski and Frattin made the team slower

M.Raymond (28): 6'0", 185lbs

2yrs: 101gms, 20gls, 42pts, 15:41 (82gms, 16gls, 34pts)

12-13 (27): 46gms, 10gls, 22pts, 15:49 (82gms, 18gls, 39pts)
11-12 (26): 55gms, 10gls, 20pts, 15:35 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)
10-11 (25): 70gms, 15gls, 39pts, 15:48 (82gms, 18gls, 46pts)
09-10 (24): 82gms, 25gls, 53pts, 17:20 (82gms, 25gls, 53pts)
08-09 (23): 72gms, 11gls, 23pts, 13:43 (82gms, 13gls, 26pts)
07-08 (22): 49gms, 9gls, 21pts, 12:31 (82gms, 15gls, 35pts)

+17 over his career
Nonis drafted him.

The cap going down has screwed over a lot of tweeners, like Raymond. Teams don't have the money, or they don't want to get too close to the ceiling. As a result, he gets left out in the cold. decent safety blanket if there are no standouts in camp. 1-2 years at $1.5 mil/year is accurate for sure

tomorrow on leafs lunch - fan crying that Raymond being in camp restricts someone else's ice time and is therefore the dumbest move in the history of the franchise, and one for which Nonis should be fired.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#11 » by Mohanad » Tue Sep 10, 2013 4:10 am

Kadri/Franson are RFAs right now.

Reimer/Gardiner are RFAs next summer.

Kessel/Phaneuf/Bolland/McClement/Kulemin are pending UFAs going into next summer.

cant wait for the media frenzy at the start of camp
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#12 » by s e n s i » Wed Sep 11, 2013 1:53 am

kadri signs a very reasonable deal at 2-yr, 2.9 aav. demote holzer and smith like they should and the leafs would have 3.3 mil left in cap space, more than plenty to sign franson to a 1-yr deal, if not 2.
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Bautista outplays his contract by more than $70 million over the next four seasons (2013-2016).
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#13 » by Ado05 » Wed Sep 11, 2013 1:58 am

s e n s i wrote:kadri signs a very reasonable deal at 2-yr, 2.9 aav

YES!

:rockon:

And that leaves enough room to sign Franson up, too!
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#14 » by Mohanad » Wed Sep 11, 2013 2:36 am

The boys seem pretty happy he's back

James van Riemsdyk ‏@JVReemer21 10m
Congrats to @43_Kadri on his new deal, if in fact "bobo's" last tweet is correct #thedream


Frazer Mclaren ‏@Frazermclaren68 6m
Congrats to @43_Kadri on the new contract. Thanks for dinner #dream


Jake Gardiner ‏@Jgardiner272 2m
Heck of a job @43_Kadri. You deserve it bud. #thedream


Nazem Kadri ‏@43_Kadri 1m
Happy to be with the leafs for the next couple years, looking forward to camp #leafnation #bestnation


very fair deal - will still be RFA by the end too. Just like the Bernier contract. Very pleased with this signing

Franson has already done the 2 year bridge, and then last year he did the 1 year deal because there was about 1 week to sign. I don't see him going bridge again.

it's either 1 year or long term imo
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#15 » by ATLTimekeeper » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:25 am

There was always a game of chicken that Franson could sign first and dig into the available money for Kadri. Now Franson has to look at what's left and deal with Reilly buzz.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#16 » by ATLTimekeeper » Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:04 pm

Looking at Leafs' D depth

Phaneuf/Gunnarson
Gardiner/Ranger
Fraser/Liles

Then they have bubble guys like Holzer and Brennan. Then some other prospects that might earn some time either in camp or during AHL season, like Granberg, Percy, Blacker.

They have the tough call on Reilly, who is too good for WHL and too young for AHL.

They're in a pretty good position if Franson decides to hold out, which is looking likely.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#17 » by ontnut » Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:15 pm

YogiStewart wrote:http://capgeek.com/mapleleafs/

The Leafs are in an interesting cap space.

First, for 2013-14: they have $5 million in space and have 2 key players unsigned - Fransen and Kadri. Not sure what magic can be done to make space to sign both of these players, but unless you can get Fransen at $2 mi/year (unlikely) and Kadri and $3 mil/year and both on short-term deals, then you have a mess. Makes you wonder about the offseason contracts to Clarckson and Bozak. even shaving $500 000/year on both of those contracts would have made it THAT much easier to sign 2 young talents.

Well step one is complete. Step two, sign Franson to a 2 year, $4million deal. Just as Yogi prescribed.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#18 » by YogiStewart » Wed Sep 11, 2013 8:13 pm

ontnut wrote:
YogiStewart wrote:http://capgeek.com/mapleleafs/

The Leafs are in an interesting cap space.

First, for 2013-14: they have $5 million in space and have 2 key players unsigned - Fransen and Kadri. Not sure what magic can be done to make space to sign both of these players, but unless you can get Fransen at $2 mi/year (unlikely) and Kadri and $3 mil/year and both on short-term deals, then you have a mess. Makes you wonder about the offseason contracts to Clarckson and Bozak. even shaving $500 000/year on both of those contracts would have made it THAT much easier to sign 2 young talents.

Well step one is complete. Step two, sign Franson to a 2 year, $4million deal. Just as Yogi prescribed.


$2 mil/year for Franson won't cut it. use Streit's UFA contract as a marker for what Franson can get on the semi-open market.
he'll probably sign a 1 year deal.

ATLTimekeeper wrote:Looking at Leafs' D depth

Phaneuf/Gunnarson
Gardiner/Ranger
Fraser/Liles

Then they have bubble guys like Holzer and Brennan. Then some other prospects that might earn some time either in camp or during AHL season, like Granberg, Percy, Blacker.

They have the tough call on Reilly, who is too good for WHL and too young for AHL.

They're in a pretty good position if Franson decides to hold out, which is looking likely.


that's one of the worst top 2 D pairings in the league. wow. I really like Gunnarson, but not as your top line D man. great 2nd pairing (at best).
Ranger's a 3rd D pairing player. Gardiner was benched by coach Randy for lots of last year. now he's magically on the 2nd line?
Liles is a turnover machine and injury prone. Fraser played out of his mind last year. hope he can play at that level again. can be a solid 3rd line D man.
Holzer's a plug.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#19 » by Mohanad » Wed Sep 11, 2013 9:03 pm

Gardiner started the *shortened* season with a concussion. As soon as he regained his form, he was outstanding in the playoffs and played up to expectations as he did the season prior. He didn't just "magically appear on the 2nd line"

Franson finished 6th in the league in points for defense-men and turned out to be the defense-men we all thought he would turn out to be when we acquired him from Nashville. The coaching adjustments between Caryle and Wilson are night and day

Unless Holzer took PED's in the off season, hopefully he wont see much ice time. Phaneuf is top 10 in defense men in both TOI and points. Going to need another big season, and Ranger as a 3rd D pairing player is exactly where he belongs.

We are probably looking at something similar to stat the season:

Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($3.150m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($2.600m)
John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Paul Ranger ($1.000m)
Mark Fraser ($1.275m) /

About slightly above average defense corp. but certainly not the "wow" worst defense pairings in the league.
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Re: Cap analysis: good news/bad news 

Post#20 » by Brew666 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:37 pm

The obvious move still seems to get rid of Liles' contract [if it's still an option]. I don't see how we're going to sign Franson with what we have left. Liles brings nothing defensively and if we have a team w/ Gardiner, Franson and Rielly coming through the ranks, there's no pressing need for another offensive defensemen. Maybe Nonis doesn't want to throw away assets but he's also diminishing Franson's value having him sit out. The other option would be to deal Franson but that only leaves us with one right handed shot on the blue line. If he's doing a 1 year deal [sounds like he's sick of the BS he's had to deal with here and just wants to move on now], then it could probably get done between $3.5-$4.5. I think Streit is getting 5.25 for 4 years and I don't see how Franson has the leverage to dictate that type of salary. If he was to hit the open market, he could probably get more than what was offered to Streit, but as a RFA, he doesn't have much say.

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