Cap analysis: good news/bad news

[YogiStewart]

The obvious move still seems to get rid of Liles' contract [if it's still an option]. I don't see how we're going to sign Franson with what we have left. Liles brings nothing defensively and if we have a team w/ Gardiner, Franson and Rielly coming through the ranks, there's no pressing need for another offensive defensemen. Maybe Nonis doesn't want to throw away assets but he's also diminishing Franson's value having him sit out. The other option would be to deal Franson but that only leaves us with one right handed shot on the blue line. If he's doing a 1 year deal [sounds like he's sick of the BS he's had to deal with here and just wants to move on now], then it could probably get done between $3.5-$4.5. I think Streit is getting 5.25 for 4 years and I don't see how Franson has the leverage to dictate that type of salary. If he was to hit the open market, he could probably get more than what was offered to Streit, but as a RFA, he doesn't have much say.

no one will take Liles via a trade that would give the Leafs cap relief. most teams are having cap management issues this year.
even worse for the Leafs? Mayson Raymond's tryout. if he gets $1.5 mil/year for 1 year, that leaves even less money for Franson.
the only hope would be if a team(s) take McLaren or Orr (or both) via trade. both gone would leave $1.5 mil in cap space. that allows you to sign Raymond and also sign Franson to a 1 or 2 year contract (although I'm guessing that we're now in the 1 year contract range).

the only other option i see? Reimer to Calgary. that saves almost $2 mil/year. the Flames have the worst goaltending in the league.

[ATLTimekeeper]

no one will take Liles via a trade that would give the Leafs cap relief. most teams are having cap management issues this year.
even worse for the Leafs? Mayson Raymond's tryout. if he gets $1.5 mil/year for 1 year, that leaves even less money for Franson.
the only hope would be if a team(s) take McLaren or Orr (or both) via trade. both gone would leave $1.5 mil in cap space. that allows you to sign Raymond and also sign Franson to a 1 or 2 year contract (although I'm guessing that we're now in the 1 year contract range).

the only other option i see? Reimer to Calgary. that saves almost $2 mil/year. the Flames have the worst goaltending in the league.

I agree that no one will take Liles at that ticket, unless we get some bad salary back to mitigate the deal. He's still a useful D man, though, just not a top 4 guy anymore. This was one of Burkie's parting gifts.

Raymond may or may not get a deal here. From the latest, it seems like the Leafs are trying to have their cake and eat it, too, by signing Franson to a multi-year deal at less then the $3/1 that he is asking and sign Raymond to a minimum deal, seeing as he's here on a tryout and has little to no leverage.

I don't know why the Leafs would give up Reimer unless it was to get a HUGE return in futures. He doesn't make much money, is RFA, and put up great numbers last year. To gain the extra coin to sign Franson AND Raymond, they wouldn't have to do anything nearly as drastic as that. There's an outside chance Reilly blows the doors off in training camp and then maybe Franson gets traded for forward depth or futures, but I doubt that's the case. This management regime is extremely patient with picks.

[YogiStewart]

trading for NHL goaltending is probably one of the lowest ROI trades one can make. look at the Bernier trade as an example (even though I think that he's going into camp extremely overrated. not saying he won't be a great goalie, but he has zero body of work to prove it). i'm telling you right now that trading Reimer will get you back a 2nd round and a late round pick, at best. at best.

the only deterrent when NHL goalies are traded? their contract. otherwise, unless you are a top 5 goalie, there is limited to no return on trading a goalie. none.

Reimer being traded will only be done for cap relief. and this is not a comment on Reimer, but if you are pressed against the cap - which i've been blabbing about being an issue since before the stupid signings of Bozak and Clarkson - you cannot afford to be paying two #1 goaltenders. to go with the Reimer/Bernier tandem is pure cap stupidity. screw goalie depth. in 2013, you cannot financially afford to have goalie depth. Leafs clearly want Bernier to be their stud goalie. if Nonnis was smart (which i think is highly debatable) then you trade Reimer before exhibition games start. get him out of town, get your cap relief, get Franson in with a contract and into camp, avoid media controversy over having 2 starters in town.

[CPT]

I think you can have goalie depth as long as one or both are on the cheap side. Reimer ($1.8M) and Bernier ($2.9M) are. They are not the reason we are in cap trouble. You may be right that they are the easiest way out of it, but hopefully something else can be done.

Those Bozak/Clarkson signings look worse and worse every day.

[OAKLEY_2]

I think the Leafs would be smart to use the cheap deals of incoming D-men prospects like Percy and Rielly to offset future commitments to Kessel/Kadri. If that means eventually dumping Gunnar, Dion and JML sign me up. I have seen both Rielly and Percy up close a number of times and they are going to be very good. Blacker might push as well. The question is: will the Lupul and JVR contracts become a a major cap problem going forward? Both have the injury bug.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The Leafs are paying $4.7 million total for two goalies, both of which have #1 potential. That ranks 18th for goaltending costs.

As for the trade market. Cory Schneider went for the 9th pick overall. Similar numbers to Reimer, similar experience, but also on a bigger ticket. If Reimer gets signed to an RFA deal next year for more than $3.5 million (which is likely, if he puts up similar numbers) the Leafs would be entitled to a 1st and 3rd. I think the Leafs could get a 1st for him. It's certainly not out of the question.

But, besides all that, like I said there's no reason why the Leafs would have to move Reimer for nothing in order to sign Franson and Raymond. They wouldn't need to disrupt a strength (goaltending depth) for a luxury (signing a 3rd/4th liner). They can sign Franson today without going over the cap at his terms. If they want to sign Raymond as well, they'll have to get rid of one of the guys he beats out.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think you can have goalie depth as long as one or both are on the cheap side. Reimer ($1.8M) and Bernier ($2.9M) are. They are not the reason we are in cap trouble. You may be right that they are the easiest way out of it, but hopefully something else can be done.

Those Bozak/Clarkson signings look worse and worse every day.

Well, would you rather have Bozak/Clarkson, or Mason Raymond? That's the crunch we're talking about. They're not keeping us from signing Franson. They might be keeping us from signing Franson long-term, but that has some risk to it as well.

Bozak and Clarkson will at least play big minutes. I can't say the same for Liles, Orr, McLaren, Fraser, Holzer, Smith, Brennan.

[YogiStewart]

I think you can have goalie depth as long as one or both are on the cheap side. Reimer ($1.8M) and Bernier ($2.9M) are. They are not the reason we are in cap trouble. You may be right that they are the easiest way out of it, but hopefully something else can be done.

Those Bozak/Clarkson signings look worse and worse every day.

Well, would you rather have Bozak/Clarkson, or Mason Raymond? That's the crunch we're talking about. They're not keeping us from signing Franson. They might be keeping us from signing Franson long-term, but that has some risk to it as well.

Bozak and Clarkson will at least play big minutes. I can't say the same for Liles, Orr, McLaren, Fraser, Holzer, Smith, Brennan.

we talking total talent or value for their contract?

i'd rather have a broken-backed Raymond than Bozak. plain and simple. centres are a hot commodity, yes, but Bozak isn't worth the $ and the hit.
if i had to choose between Bozak and Clarkson...sigh...tough call...Clarkson, maybe. but, again, centres are hard to find, so who would replace Bozak?

i hate those 2 signings and Leaf fans better hope i'm really, really wrong. just look at Orr, Clarkson, Mclaren and you have 3 guys that could potentially be in the line-up on the same night...and all sitting in the box for fighting majors. uggg...1970s hockey all over again....just so stupid. anyways....

past history's shown that smart teams leave some wiggle room cap-wise in case of injuries, etc. signing Franson for $1.9 million for 1 year leaves the LEafs with zero cap space. they will have to do what chicago did during the off season - cap fire sale - just to make room for a call up.

basically, if Lupul or JvR get injured...the team is probably doomed. then again, i said they'd finish in the bottom 2 in the East in last year's anomoly-filled shortened season (with Montreal). so what do i know?

[SharoneWright]

haven't heard this idea anywhere--

if we play hard-ball with Franson, but sign him mid-season, i assume his salary is pro-rated against the cap --- this could be an option, securing his services just in time for a play-off push and a potential play-off run. you'd have to assume this strategy would burn our bridge with him for the next go-around of contract talks - that said, i bet he'd take it. you've got to play if you ultimately want to get paid.

[Mohanad]

i'd rather have a broken-backed Raymond than Bozak. plain and simple

Nobody in the right mind takes Raymond over Bozak that centered 2 line mates that had career years. plain and simple. jeez.

Leaf fans better hope i'm really, really wrong.

They don't have to hope for that

just look at Orr, Clarkson, Mclaren and you have 3 guys that could potentially be in the line-up on the same night...and all sitting in the box for fighting majors. uggg...1970s hockey all over again....just so stupid. anyways....

What? Mclaren and Orr are both 4th liners that will see limited minutes and Frazer is only going to see half a season and maybe lucky enough to get a shift in the playoffs. Clarkson is one of the better power forwards in the league that's going pot 20-25 goals. He's going to do a little more than sitting in the box...

basically, if Lupul or JvR get injured...the team is probably doomed

any team that suffers injuries to their top 6 forwards is going to have a set back. I guess the Leafs were "doomed" when Lupul broke his forearm and they still finished top 5 in the east.

[YogiStewart]

Mohanad,

Clarkson averages around 130 PIM a season. You will pot more than 20 goals if you aren't in the box all the time. simple logic. taking penalties is not a skill. putting the other team on the power play is not a skill. not sure how you can argue against that, especially when paying a guy top player money.

Raymond vs Bozak. $1 mil/year vs $5 mil/year. I take Raymond. no argument. Bozak is decent. still a below-average centre. don't argue that. he played 1st line minutes because the Leafs had zero centres last year. they bought out their #2 centre, remember?

finally, if you want to use a half season (i.e. last year) as a measuring stick for your team, then you are doomed. last year was filled with anomalies. zero training camp/pre-season, therefore resulting in a mess of hockey for the first 7 games. you can't interpret the standings based on a lockout season. you just can't.

[Mohanad]

Enough with these know-it-all, definitive statements - meanwhile you've been way off the mark on a variety of topics concerning this team

Clarkson is not a 4th line plug like Frazer (wont see a minute in a meaningful game) or Orr. For a guy who played in the trap in New Jersey, playing on 2nd and 3rd lines he was still good for 20-25 goals. There's more to his game than just fighting majors. He's also one of the toughest guys to play against in the east. We've been hearing for years how badly we need a power forward that plays a Lucic style game. He has shown that he can play top line minutes on a once Stanley Cup-contending Devils. I'm not a fan of his contract length though.

A 3rd/4th line winger in Raymond at 1 mill over Tyler Boazk at 4 million who is a top 6 forward that plays an integral role at center for this team isn't a "no argument". I'm up for hearing responses (you're a smart guy) but stop putting your opinions into black and white terms as in no argument/plain and simple

finally, if you want to use a half season (i.e. last year) as a measuring stick for your team, then you are doomed. last year was filled with anomalies. zero training camp/pre-season, therefore resulting in a mess of hockey for the first 7 games. you can't interpret the standings based on a lockout season. you just can't.

Let's just put an asterisk on Chicago's Cup while we are it. Every team played 48 games last season...it's what all 30 teams had to work with (not just the Leafs). Regardless, everything is doom and gloom in Leafs land. Right, Yogi? Especially if Lupul or JVR get injured as you proclaimed (meanwhile Lupul missed most of the season and they still finished 5th)

[YogiStewart]

Enough with these know-it-all, definitive statements - meanwhile you've been way off the mark on a variety of topics concerning this team

i'm going to politely remind you what internet sports forums are for - people state their opinions. you've done it, i've done it, others in this thread have done it. don't cry because you strongly disagree with me. if you do, please state so with a non-emotional rant.

there's an equal chance that i'm as every bit right as you'll be.

[Mohanad]

Enough with these know-it-all, definitive statements - meanwhile you've been way off the mark on a variety of topics concerning this team

i'm going to politely remind you what internet sports forums are for - people state their opinions. you've done it, i've done it, others in this thread have done it. don't cry because you strongly disagree with me. if you do, please state so with a non-emotional rant.

there's an equal chance that i'm as every bit right as you'll be.

You post hot trash and incorrect facts, ignore all important contents of every post, and finish off this junk with "no argument". Now you're telling me don't cry? how pathetic. there's goes any hope to get a rational post..

if you believe you're right with the sheer ignorance you post on the Leafs (it's evident you have zero knowledge) all I'm asking from you is to put your money where your mouth is and and back up your ridiculous posts. Which is something you haven't done... and don't expect you to do because it's clear as day you don't know what you're talking about

[YogiStewart]

Enough with these know-it-all, definitive statements - meanwhile you've been way off the mark on a variety of topics concerning this team

i'm going to politely remind you what internet sports forums are for - people state their opinions. you've done it, i've done it, others in this thread have done it. don't cry because you strongly disagree with me. if you do, please state so with a non-emotional rant.

there's an equal chance that i'm as every bit right as you'll be.

You post hot trash and incorrect facts, ignore all important contents of every post, and finish off this junk with "no argument". Now you're telling me don't cry? how pathetic. there's goes any hope to get a rational post..

if you believe you're right with the sheer ignorance you post on the Leafs (it's evident you have zero knowledge) all I'm asking from you is to put your money where your mouth is and and back up your ridiculous posts. Which is something you haven't done... and don't expect you to do because it's clear as day you don't know what you're talking about

it's not because you're attacking me, but, as a mod, i'll remind you to attack the post, not the poster.
if you disagree with what i've said (which other posters certainly aren't to the degree that you are), then that's fine. but stop being a jackass. on the FAN today, the hosts were talking about the Leafs probably fighting for the 8th playoff spot. guess i'm not the only idiot out there.

in the end, one can prognosticate as much as they want. 75% of the experts' guesses are right (or in the neighbourhood) and, every year, there are outliers who overperform and that beat the predictions and odds. i think the Leafs did that last year and i don't see them as being as good of a team as you do. i do see Randy as being a great coach who got a lot out of a sad d squad last year and, if he can do it again this year, will have the team finish anywhere from 5-8. otherwise, the cap was poorly managed and i think that, after the top line, the talent is very, very thin (assuming kadri replaces Bozak on the top line).

if you can't discuss it in the manner that i just did (calmly, rationally), then you'll have to stop posting. plain and simple.

[Mohanad]

i'm going to politely remind you what internet sports forums are for - people state their opinions. you've done it, i've done it, others in this thread have done it. don't cry because you strongly disagree with me. if you do, please state so with a non-emotional rant.

there's an equal chance that i'm as every bit right as you'll be.

You post hot trash and incorrect facts, ignore all important contents of every post, and finish off this junk with "no argument". Now you're telling me don't cry? how pathetic. there's goes any hope to get a rational post..

if you believe you're right with the sheer ignorance you post on the Leafs (it's evident you have zero knowledge) all I'm asking from you is to put your money where your mouth is and and back up your ridiculous posts. Which is something you haven't done... and don't expect you to do because it's clear as day you don't know what you're talking about

it's not because you're attacking me, but, as a mod, i'll remind you to attack the post, not the poster.
if you disagree with what i've said (which other posters certainly aren't to the degree that you are), then that's fine. but stop being a jackass. on the FAN today, the hosts were talking about the Leafs probably fighting for the 8th playoff spot. guess i'm not the only idiot out there.

in the end, one can prognosticate as much as they want. 75% of the experts' guesses are right (or in the neighbourhood) and, every year, there are outliers who overperform and that beat the predictions and odds. i think the Leafs did that last year and i don't see them as being as good of a team as you do. i do see Randy as being a great coach who got a lot out of a sad d squad last year and, if he can do it again this year, will have the team finish anywhere from 5-8. otherwise, the cap was poorly managed and i think that, after the top line, the talent is very, very thin (assuming kadri replaces Bozak on the top line).

if you can't discuss it in the manner that i just did (calmly, rationally), then you'll have to stop posting. plain and simple.

You want to make these arrogant definitive claims (that you don't back up), ask me what I'm smoking, make ignorant statements, tell me to stop posting but I'm a jackass? Great.

And yes, I use to be a moderator (forgot my password from my old account) you don't need to tell me about the TOS. Holding that tag wont add any substance to your post.

Now you're digging deep, Yogi. The Fan590 said so? awesome. Damien Cox said the Leafs should trade Kessel and wrote him off as a bust during the lockout. Now he made reports about how the Leafs should re-sign Kessel. Cox has been working for 590 for years. Not to mention your friends at the Fan suggested trading Kadri and Garidner for Luongo once upon a time.

i don't see them as being as good of a team as you do.

you've made up your mind long before assessing anything with thought and reason

Kadri isn't as good as 3/4 of prospects drafted in his range (completely ignores statistics and performance)
The 4th liner Raymond is better value at million than Bozak at 4
Clarkson is a goon that's only good for throwing haymakers
The Leafs have the worst pairing defensemen in the league
Gardiner magically appears as the Leafs second top line for defense
... Your agenda and ignorance goes on and on but my personal favorite was when you wrote off Mcclement as a waste of a signing meanwhile McClement played the most penalty killing minutes among any NHL player and helped the Leafs penalty killing improve from 29th overall to 2nd overall. Jay finished 6th in the selke voting. he even got 4 1st place. What a scrub.

don't cry because you strongly disagree with me

take your own advice

[YogiStewart]

i never said anything about Mcclement.
Mclaren.
but go on.

[SharoneWright]

Welcome Mason Raymond! 1 year/1M.

Obviously Raymond would have taken more to play elsewhere, and the shrinking cap helped us... but it's a huge payoff to have a couple real good value signings like Raymond and Ranger. I always hope for a few of these team-friendly deals just by virtue of a Leaf-mystique-discount, but they've been surprisingly rare in Leafland over the years.....
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/toro ... -one-year/

[whysoserious]

I have to agree with Yogi when he talks about the money spent by this team on certain players.

Is Bozak a top 6 forward? Maybe although he's more of a borderline 2nd line, 3rd line center. His stats are inflated, Matt Stajan gets thrown on the first line with some skilled guys and his stats will go up. Same is true for a guy like Bozak. This is not a knock on a player like Bozak, but you're paying him big money like he's a definite top guy and he simply is not. This is poor management of the cap. Raymond is not a top line C either, but he's also a guy that's more of a 3rd line center than can be bumped up to your second line. Only difference is he's making 1 million as opposed to 5. There's reasons why he's getting so little (injuries and what not the past few years). Ideally, he's probably making between 2-3 million. Bozak, being healthy, slighly younger and overall should probably make slightly more but not 5 million and not for that length. It's just poor management.

His contract along with Clarksons is what put them in such a pinch to negotiate with Kadri/Franson. You're basically overpaying for one or two guys and trying to squeeze the savings back from other guys. Now, I think Kadri got a fair deal but they could have managed the cap better and reached a long-term (3 or 4 years) with Franson and now they're stuck with him out until he signed today for 1 year.

The fact remains the Leafs, since this cap era has come along have not had any elite talent on the level of Mats Sundin even yet they’ve paid plenty of guys big contracts relative to their positions. Kessel is the only one and it seems with all this money we’re even tight to be able to get a deal with him for what he’ll be looking for.

Pay Bozak and Clarkson the money you did, and you lose negotiating leverage with Kessel because now he’s far superior to those guys and will end up being paid like Crosby and Malkin and the likes.

[whysoserious]

it's not because you're attacking me, but, as a mod, i'll remind you to attack the post, not the poster.
if you disagree with what i've said (which other posters certainly aren't to the degree that you are), then that's fine. but stop being a jackass. on the FAN today, the hosts were talking about the Leafs probably fighting for the 8th playoff spot. guess i'm not the only idiot out there.

in the end, one can prognosticate as much as they want. 75% of the experts' guesses are right (or in the neighbourhood) and, every year, there are outliers who overperform and that beat the predictions and odds. i think the Leafs did that last year and i don't see them as being as good of a team as you do. i do see Randy as being a great coach who got a lot out of a sad d squad last year and, if he can do it again this year, will have the team finish anywhere from 5-8. otherwise, the cap was poorly managed and i think that, after the top line, the talent is very, very thin (assuming kadri replaces Bozak on the top line).

if you can't discuss it in the manner that i just did (calmly, rationally), then you'll have to stop posting. plain and simple.

The one move that I see that could really payoff and show this team to be above the talent and position you're placing them is Bernier. I think this guy could be a top goalie in the NHL and if he breaks out, all bets are off on where this team finishes. That doesn't change your assessment of the rest of the team because I think other than goalie, if I look at this squad, it's probably in that 5-9 range of the conference. Especially with Detroit coming over. But Bernier is a difference maker IMO.