And the bad news wasn't limited to possession stats. The Leafs had the league's highest PDO, a stat that adds shooting and save percentages and can be a good indicator of which teams had the best luck.4 In his Hockey Abstract, Rob Vollman created a formula for measuring team luck that included PDO as well as injuries and other variables; he concluded that out of 150 teams over five seasons' worth of data, last year's Leafs team was the luckiest.
Percentages can be applied to individual players, too, like in this late-season article by the Globe and Mail's James Mirtle5 that examined the breakout season of center Nazem Kadri and concluded that it, too, was largely a product of good luck. Kadri was an extreme example, but other Leafs posted similarly unusual numbers.
So the advanced stats are virtually unanimous about the Toronto Maple Leafs. They're a bad team, one that gets consistently outplayed and relies on luck to remain competitive. If last season hadn't been shortened by a lockout, some argue, the Leafs probably wouldn't have even made the playoffs. (The 5-seed in the East, the Leafs lost to the Boston Bruins in seven games in the first round.) This year, they should finish near the bottom of the standings.
What do you guys think?