A key question that could go a long way in determining how successful the Knicks are next season, is how the alpha-dog scorers will function together on offense; particularly with budding star Kristaps Porzingis also needing touches to continue his offensive growth.
Regardless of whether the duo plays well, one thing is clear: New York will almost certainly play faster with Rose leading the offense. The shift might have taken place anyway, with new coach Jeff Hornacek and his track record with the Suns. But the addition of Rose should cement that notion. The Bulls played at the 10th-fastest pace in the league with Rose on the court, up from the equivalent of the 10th-slowest pace when he wasn’t on the court.
His ability to transform the Knicks in that way explains why Hornacek has mentioned, twice, needing Anthony to run harder following opponents’ misses. Rose was very inefficient in transition scenarios last season—with his double vision from a preseason orbital fracture likely playing a role—struggling to take care of the ball, drawing fouls or finishing at the rim.
But he was solid at finding open perimeter shooters, like Mike Dunleavy and Doug McDermott, before defenses were set. At his best, in the 2012 Olympics, and then again during the 2012 season, Anthony was a devastating trailer in transition. Committing to running the floor with Rose could earn him similar looks when opponents are a step late in identifying their fast break assignments.
When the Knicks aren’t able to get quick looks, the fit could become a bit more complicated.
While both players take a considerable amount of midrange jumpers—Anthony took an NBA-high 8.4 shots from there among qualifying players, and Rose took 5.3 attempts a night—they don’t share sweet spots, meaning their styles shouldn’t necessarily clash the way that Anthony and Jeremy Lin did at times; partly because both men favored playing from the right.
Rose was more comfortable on the left, taking about 40% of his outside jumpers from there. Anthony, by contrast, took nearly 48% of his outside jumpers from the right, per Stats LLC.
This doesn’t guarantee anything, obviously. Jimmy Butler, whose playmaking style and ascension hastened Rose’s exit in Chicago, also preferred playing from the right, yet never fit with him. There are two key differences in Anthony’s case, though. First, he’s a far superior shooter to Butler. Secondly, Anthony—though he likes to isolate—unloads the ball a bit quicker than Butler. (Anthony held it 2.97 seconds per touch last year, while Butler, as an occasional lead ballhandler, possessed it an average of 3.64 seconds, per SportVU player-tracking technology.)
Aside from his health, Rose’s ability to penetrate to and convert at the rim—particularly with the spacing he’ll get with lineups featuring Porzingis at center—will dictate how the Knicks perform on offense more than any other factor.
Rose should be a perfect running mate for a player like Anthony. He can create good looks for himself—after the All-Star break, he shot a blistering 56% when he possessed the ball for more than six seconds—and also force enough help to where teammates get open as a result. That could be a game-changer for Anthony, who’s been one of the NBA’s best 3-point shooters when left wide-open, hitting 47.1% (106-of-225) of such looks the past three seasons.
But while Rose will occasionally make the cross-court, home-run pass, and sometimes makes nifty ones while in mid-air, he doesn’t hit perimeter shooters nearly as frequently as other drive-and-kick point guards. In Chicago, Rose more commonly would drive after getting a pick, then kick the ball back to his screener—generally either Joakim Noah or Pau Gasol—at the elbow. The big man would then generally either shoot, or scan the floor for the open man, who was often beyond the arc. (It’s easy to imagine Porzingis in this facilitating role, similar to Gasol; perhaps with even more spacing.)
This explains why Rose ranked among NBA leaders in hockey assists—plays where he feeds the player who ultimately gets credited with the assist—with 1.3 per game despite owning modest assist totals in a traditional sense. Noah and Gasol assisted McDermott, Dunleavy and Nikola Mirotic more than Rose (and did so with fewer minutes than Rose had with those players, in some cases), but part of that was him making the simple play rather than the spectacular one.
Clutch situations will bring about another question for the Knicks, given Rose and Anthony’s star mentalities. Anthony used 36.2% of the Knicks’ possessions in “clutch” scenarios—when the game was separated by five points or fewer, with five minutes or less to play—while Rose used 31.7% of the Bulls’ possessions. Both ranked among the NBA’s 20 stingiest players of those who saw action in at least 30 close games last season.
Ideally, the Knicks would use the two of them together in screen-roll action—or one of them, along with Porzingis—to get defenders moving instead of settling for the stagnant, contested looks Anthony has gotten on his own in recent years.
One way or another, though, the Knicks should have real options with Rose in the fold. It’s just a matter of figuring out how to get him and Anthony working in tandem, as opposed to having the two All-Stars take turns running the offense.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-derrick-rose-and-carmelo-anthony-can-both-thrive-1468447612
