Official MMA discussion thread: UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega finally!

[waya]

Do you think it would've made any difference if Ronda had a tune-up fight?

Also, what do you think about Khabib v. Conor or Ferguson?

I don't think Ronda showed any improvement in technique, so a tune up fight probably doesn't help. She's already got less time to commit to training thanks to her fame and she's at an awful camp.

I've been on the Khabib wagon for a long time. That dominant grappling he pulls is pretty scarce. But after seeing Johnson tag him with hard punches, I'm a lot more interested in both those opponents. Against Ferguson, I'm leaning toward Khabib but I'm not as confident as I used to be. With Conor...really tough to say because of Conor's one punch power and game planning. If Johnson's first round striking wasn't cage rust for Khabib; I could see him getting caught.

Khabib totally dominated Johnson. That was one of the most dominant fights I've ever seen among top contenders. I don't even recall Johnson getting in any work on him, just getting twisted into a pretzel while getting his face punched in over and over again. Am I wrong?

Khabib 94 strikes
Johnson 19 strikes

Maybe some of Johnson's strikes were power strikes. I just don't recall any of them. Tony's definitely a tough fight for anybody, including Conor IMO.

http://www.fightmetric.com/fighter-details/032cc3922d871c7f

I think people are referring to the first half of round 1. MJ clipped him and tagged him a few more times before Khabib said "f*ck this" and proceeded the mauling. Khabib and his team said afterwards that, going into this fight, they wanted to impress on the feet this time (and he actually tagged Johnson back in the brief striking exhanges in the 2nd and 3rd rounds), which, if true, I think was pretty questionable game planning for a dude like Khabib who clearly has a grappling advantage over damn near anyone and against a dude like MJ, who is one of the best strikers in the division and is legitimately explosive. But man, in that third round when Khabib had a worn out Johnson sitting up against the cage and was literally planted on top of his legs, talking to him in between punches.. that was scary dominant. And he was talking sh*t to Dana before and after the third round

I do think it's a bit overblown how everyone in the MMA community look at Khabib getting tagged once as such a red flag, when pretty much everyone in this sport have gotten tagged or knocked down at some point. GSP, Conor, whoever. Nobody's invincible against those 4 oz gloves and Johnson's a dude who lit up Barboza and Ferguson. Conor will have that advantage over anyone, not just Khabib. Conor will for sure have his opening to tag him when he closes the distance, but boy, he better make it count. If Khabib gets him up against the cage, Conor is going for a ride or sweeped and subsequently flattened out. I like Khabib's chances in that, and can legitimately see Conor dicking around going up to 170 for another belt, or doing the trilogy fight with Nate, or super fights with GSP or Nick Diaz or even the Aldo rematch. Dude never defended a belt in his last promotion or the UFC, and I'm not so sure that changes against a dude who's as bad as matchup for him as Khabib.

[j4remi]

I think people are referring to the first half of round 1. MJ clipped him and tagged him a few more times before Khabib said "f*ck this" and proceeded the mauling. Khabib and his team said afterwards that, going into this fight, they wanted to impress on the feet this time (and he actually tagged Johnson back in the brief striking exhanges in the 2nd and 3rd rounds), which, if true, I think was pretty questionable game planning for a dude like Khabib who clearly has a grappling advantage over damn near anyone and against a dude like MJ, who is one of the best strikers in the division and is legitimately explosive. But man, in that third round when Khabib had a worn out Johnson sitting up against the cage and was literally planted on top of his legs, talking to him in between punches.. that was scary dominant. And he was talking sh*t to Dana before and after the third round

I do think it's a bit overblown how everyone in the MMA community look at Khabib getting tagged once as such a red flag, when pretty much everyone in this sport have gotten tagged or knocked down at some point. GSP, Conor, whoever. Nobody's invincible against those 4 oz gloves and Johnson's a dude who lit up Barboza and Ferguson. Conor will have that advantage over anyone, not just Khabib. Conor will for sure have his opening to tag him when he closes the distance, but boy, he better make it count. If Khabib gets him up against the cage, Conor is going for a ride or sweeped and subsequently flattened out. I like Khabib's chances in that, and can legitimately see Conor dicking around going up to 170 for another belt, or doing the trilogy fight with Nate, or super fights with GSP or Nick Diaz or even the Aldo rematch. Dude never defended a belt in his last promotion or the UFC, and I'm not so sure that changes against a dude who's as bad as matchup for him as Khabib.

This, for half of round 1 Khabib tried to trade and got chewed up. Until he closed distance and forced clinches, he was getting hit HARD. After he gassed Johnson on the ground the gap in striking closed but was still closer to even than superior for Khabib. Khabib was absolutely dominant...on the ground and in the clinch, but at distance he was below average. Here's the thing; if you asked me who are the best fighters at managing distance in the division...Tony and Conor over everybody. Having poor striking is going to make it a LOT harder to close that gap even into a clinch; especially against Conor who isn't reckless. Lateral movement is still a hole in a lot of fighters' games. Khabib's ring cutting...still a question mark.

As far as Conor never defending, I don't think the UFC will let him get away with another non-title fight. Woodley has a line; Thompson and Maia. Conor vs Nate is a bigger risk than a title defense because it's a rubber match against a guy who fought him tough twice already. GSP is looking at Bisping for his super fight and Nick wants to be back in March, which cuts him off line for a May match-up (plus I don't think Nick would steal Nate's big showdown down the line). Also, if Conor fights the 145 champion, that's a title defense to me whether it's Holloway or Aldo. My guess is Khabib gets his match with Ferguson (offering his win bonus to Tony just so dude could stop making money an issue is awesome) and that winner faces Conor. How Khabib handles Tony will give me a better idea on Conor vs Khabib.

[waya]

I think people are referring to the first half of round 1. MJ clipped him and tagged him a few more times before Khabib said "f*ck this" and proceeded the mauling. Khabib and his team said afterwards that, going into this fight, they wanted to impress on the feet this time (and he actually tagged Johnson back in the brief striking exhanges in the 2nd and 3rd rounds), which, if true, I think was pretty questionable game planning for a dude like Khabib who clearly has a grappling advantage over damn near anyone and against a dude like MJ, who is one of the best strikers in the division and is legitimately explosive. But man, in that third round when Khabib had a worn out Johnson sitting up against the cage and was literally planted on top of his legs, talking to him in between punches.. that was scary dominant. And he was talking sh*t to Dana before and after the third round

I do think it's a bit overblown how everyone in the MMA community look at Khabib getting tagged once as such a red flag, when pretty much everyone in this sport have gotten tagged or knocked down at some point. GSP, Conor, whoever. Nobody's invincible against those 4 oz gloves and Johnson's a dude who lit up Barboza and Ferguson. Conor will have that advantage over anyone, not just Khabib. Conor will for sure have his opening to tag him when he closes the distance, but boy, he better make it count. If Khabib gets him up against the cage, Conor is going for a ride or sweeped and subsequently flattened out. I like Khabib's chances in that, and can legitimately see Conor dicking around going up to 170 for another belt, or doing the trilogy fight with Nate, or super fights with GSP or Nick Diaz or even the Aldo rematch. Dude never defended a belt in his last promotion or the UFC, and I'm not so sure that changes against a dude who's as bad as matchup for him as Khabib.

This, for half of round 1 Khabib tried to trade and got chewed up. Until he closed distance and forced clinches, he was getting hit HARD. After he gassed Johnson on the ground the gap in striking closed but was still closer to even than superior for Khabib. Khabib was absolutely dominant...on the ground and in the clinch, but at distance he was below average. Here's the thing; if you asked me who are the best fighters at managing distance in the division...Tony and Conor over everybody. Having poor striking is going to make it a LOT harder to close that gap even into a clinch; especially against Conor who isn't reckless. Lateral movement is still a hole in a lot of fighters' games. Khabib's ring cutting...still a question mark.

As far as Conor never defending, I don't think the UFC will let him get away with another non-title fight. Woodley has a line; Thompson and Maia. Conor vs Nate is a bigger risk than a title defense because it's a rubber match against a guy who fought him tough twice already. GSP is looking at Bisping for his super fight and Nick wants to be back in March, which cuts him off line for a May match-up (plus I don't think Nick would steal Nate's big showdown down the line). Also, if Conor fights the 145 champion, that's a title defense to me whether it's Holloway or Aldo. My guess is Khabib gets his match with Ferguson (offering his win bonus to Tony just so dude could stop making money an issue is awesome) and that winner faces Conor. How Khabib handles Tony will give me a better idea on Conor vs Khabib.

Great points. And I hope you're right about the UFC putting a leash on Conor, but it's possible this Rousey debacle gives him some renewed leverage with them. Besides him, all of their cash cows are dropping like flies. Brock got popped, Ronda will probably retire, GSP and the company can't come to terms, and Jon Bones can't keep his head out of his azz for more than 1 fight camp at a time. And even then, those guys never sold as much as Conor, and Conor is definitely aware of this.

And as for his opponents, I'm sure they'd all be perfectly amenable for getting a red panty night. Its kind of hyperbolic but it reminds me of that Ken Norton quote, "a fight with Ali gave me a chance at life". These fighters are all looking for their biggest paydays and they know where to get it. There were rumors that they were planning GSP vs. Conor if he took care of Nate the first time (even had Georges ring side and mic'd up giving his thoughts) and Conor already built up some steam at the 205 weighins for a fight with Woodley. It goes without saying Aldo and Nate would want another fight with him. Who knows, we'll see I suppose.

[bbconair]

i think it is strange and really poor branding for white to have let rousey fight. i know hindsight is 20/20, but her boxing vids just look hilarious

[j4remi]

It's another fight weekend but a lackluster one. BJ Penn is way past his prime and has looked awful in his past couple of fights, he's fighting a bright up and comer in Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is the flashiest striker since Anthony Pettis stopped being effective but also relies on volume, so it could get ugly if BJ hasn't seriously figured out something.

Lauzon vs Held could be good, but Lauzon had been looking cooked before he KO'ed Diego Sanchez...I think Held is pretty good but not too hype about him. Ben Saunders is a guy I've seen win a decision where he spent the whole fight on his back, dude's got an incredible guard and he's fighting Court Mcgee...UF alum who had a spark when he started but now he's just "meh." Last on the main card is Sergio Pettis, Anthony's brother vs John Moraga. Pettis has a lot of potential but never put it all together, Moraga is a good fighter but again I'm not excited for him in that division. Surprisingly, Pettis was the favorite when I checked the betting lines.

The rest of the card is mostly guys I'm not hype about or not familiar with. I'm in recovery from NYE still, so I'll probably watch for any exciting prospects.

[waya]

It's another fight weekend but a lackluster one. BJ Penn is way past his prime and has looked awful in his past couple of fights, he's fighting a bright up and comer in Yair Rodriguez. Rodriguez is the flashiest striker since Anthony Pettis stopped being effective but also relies on volume, so it could get ugly if BJ hasn't seriously figured out something.

Lauzon vs Held could be good, but Lauzon had been looking cooked before he KO'ed Diego Sanchez...I think Held is pretty good but not too hype about him. Ben Saunders is a guy I've seen win a decision where he spent the whole fight on his back, dude's got an incredible guard and he's fighting Court Mcgee...UF alum who had a spark when he started but now he's just "meh." Last on the main card is Sergio Pettis, Anthony's brother vs John Moraga. Pettis has a lot of potential but never put it all together, Moraga is a good fighter but again I'm not excited for him in that division. Surprisingly, Pettis was the favorite when I checked the betting lines.

The rest of the card is mostly guys I'm not hype about or not familiar with. I'm in recovery from NYE still, so I'll probably watch for any exciting prospects.

I think the only person I recognize on the early prelims is Nunes' gf.. I'll prob just watch the main card

[j4remi]

I think the only person I recognize on the early prelims is Nunes' gf.. I'll prob just watch the main card

You never know when someone will flash heavy potential, so I'll probably check out the prelims just to try and scout fighters for future betting but yeah that's the only reason I'm checking. It's a rare occasion when I don't know the fighters on a card and this one is full of those.

[j4remi]

Uppin' this with a couple of thoughts from the Bellator card over the weekend. Only a few things stood out...

1. There's a big controversy about Chael Sonnen throwing the fight with Tito Ortiz this weekend. He didn't even hand fight to stop a choke and seemed to just roll over after losing positioning in the ground fight. I don't agree with that thought process but get it. Chael hasn't fought in years, was juicing when he was successful and was overrated most of his career. That he looked so bad people think he wasn't trying is just the result of all these factors. On the other hand, Tito went out like G and finished another legend to end his career. But he also held on to a choke long which characterizes his career pretty well. He was good and very successful but managed to make himself very hard to root for.

2. Paul Daley's KO of Brennan Ward will be on the KO of the Year nominations for sure even though we're not even out of January. I loved his call out of Rory and also was impressed that he's improved a lot at getting off his back. I like Daley, he's a good fighter and still has a bit of upside.

3. One of Bellator's most entertaining fighters is Chinzo Machida...they wasted his fight by throwing it on the internet instead of the actual televised portion of the card. He might never be a champ, he's older and has weak ground game; but he's wildly entertaining.

4. Campos v Anderson was entertaining and kinda a barn burner. He's got three wins in a row and it's time for him to get one of the top tier LW's again...I'd throw him a rematch with Pitbull.

[waya]

Predictions for tonight?

Schevchenko v. Peña
Cerrone vs. Masvidal
Arlovski vs. Ngannou
Caceres vs. Jason Knight

Marquardt vs. Alvey
Assunção vs. Sterling

[j4remi]

This is an exciting card for me, a lot of personal favorites mixed in with obviously great match-ups.

Schevchenko v Pena - I think Valentina beat Amanda Nunes in the first match and would beat Nunes in any 5 round fight. Her counter striking is measured and just really beautiful to watch in motion. That said Pena fights at a pace nobody can match and I don't think I've ever seen her really get hurt. It's about as 50/50 as it gets, I haven't seen them fight anybody with attributes like their opponent. I'm leaning toward Valentina because of just how crisp her striking is but it's mostly just me wanting to see that rematch.

Cerrone vs Masvidal - I think this is the type of match-up that threatens the hell out of Cerrone. Masvidal is one of the most underrated strikers in the UFC thanks to sort of just loafing through fights when he gets too comfortable with guys he starts off outclassing. He's lost three split decisions that way. Cerrone hasn't shown one strike KO power at WW and Masvidal's chin is wicked. Not only that but we've seen Cerrone get to the cusp and choke enough times that I don't trust him fully. All that said, it's impossible to pick against Cowboy right now though I'm warning yall that this could be a shocker.

Arlovski vs Ngannou - Arlovski's striking is still really technical and pretty but his chin is suspect and he does make mistakes that can get him tagged. I've hyped Ngannou since his first UFC fight, you don't see a physical specimen like that often and the dude has improved by leaps and bounds every time out. Arlovski would need to tag dude early and avoid getting overpowered if he does hurt Ngannou, which I don't see happening. Going with the young gun taking that next step.

Bruce Leeroy vs Jason Knight - Jason Knight is calling a KO and then planning to challenge Korean Superboy...dude should slow his roll. He's shown real potential against some low ranked opposition but Kawajiri took him out and Caceres is a different level from those dudes. Bruce Leeroy just went five competitive rounds with Yair "the absolute monster" Rodriguez and before that he SMOKED Cole Miller. Dude looks like a new fighter lately and I expect him to take out Knight too, though the lack of fights against good competition means I can't be too certain.

Marquardt vs Alvey - In 2012 Nate beat a still green Tyron Woodley, since then he's 3-6 with a questionable chin. Alvey's left hand might as well be a sledge hammer. So you know what I'm expecting.

Assuncao vs Sterling - I really like Assuncao but Sterling is a truly great prospect because of his wrestling. The big issue for Sterling is striking though, he got outstruck by Bryan Cararway; yuck! With Sterling it's kinda like "when is he gonna put it together" while Assuncao is just a really talented vet who can hang with anyone in the division short of TJ, Cody and probably Cruz. My heart says Sterling finally gets that marquee win and makes a leap but my mind says it's obvious that Assuncao will continue the streak because he's too savvy and talented. If Sterling looks scared to get hit again, it could be ugly. If Sterling lets strikes set up take downs, he can score the upset. For now...money on Assuncao I suppose.

[waya]

This is an exciting card for me, a lot of personal favorites mixed in with obviously great match-ups.

Schevchenko v Pena - I think Valentina beat Amanda Nunes in the first match and would beat Nunes in any 5 round fight. Her counter striking is measured and just really beautiful to watch in motion. That said Pena fights at a pace nobody can match and I don't think I've ever seen her really get hurt. It's about as 50/50 as it gets, I haven't seen them fight anybody with attributes like their opponent. I'm leaning toward Valentina because of just how crisp her striking is but it's mostly just me wanting to see that rematch.

I wonder how Peña's cardio is. She hasn't been in a 5 round contest whereas Valentina looked great against Holly for 25 minutes. Maybe that could be one of the deciding factors.

I get the impression Masvidal is looking at this one as a make or break fight. Super slick boxer and counter puncher and durable like you said. I remember him eating a wheel kick on the button against Khabilov and back on his feet like nothing happened within 20 seconds. His wrestling ain't too shabby either. I'm gonna go with him in this fight but it wouldn't be the first time Cowboy made me look like a fool.

Ngannou better win. Its his first ranked opponent and you never know with these heavy weights and 4 oz gloves. I'm not ready for this hype train to be derailed just yet.

[j4remi]

So Pena didn't bother to train in elevation while Valentina trains in elevation pretty often...I think that could really make a difference, you see it impact fighters all the time. The elevation is also a bad look for any HW fights, got De Silva fighting an undefeated up and comer in the prelims and Ngannou of course...those fights usually suck in elevation without a quick KO.

Right now two TUF alums are fighting, Pantoja vs Shelton; prolly the two most entertaining guys from the show and both are real prospects at 125. I got Pantoja 2-0 with the third unfolding now in tight fashion. Grappling has been the difference, Pantoja has taken the back both rounds and threatened multiple choke submissions.

[waya]

Jesus, Ngannou is terrifying. I wonder who he fights next. Maybe overeem??

[waya]

Damn, Cowboy pretty much lost twice. I don't know how Herb let him back out for round 2.

[j4remi]

Well damn, talk about a night of decisive fights!

. Masvidal KO'ing Cerrone is probably the biggest exclamation point and game changer. Dude toughed his way through a barrage of kicks and let his hands go once he got in the pocket. Dude shoulda had the KO at the end of the first, but continued to dominate after.

. Valentina's arm bar was damn near equally impressive because she's a striker foremost who has flashed some good clinch and wrestling work...but to submit Pena from her back...the case for most well rounded in the division is being built with wins like this.

. Ngannou with KO power backing up and reach that allows him to hit the button moving away at an awkward angle...scary. The hype is real, but they also shouldn't rush him up the line and let him keep developing. No need to have another Wonder Boy vs Matt Brown.

. Jason Knight is a tough SOB, he was eating strikes and winging monster shots back but when he couldn't land with any consistency went to grappling. Really impressive will and ground technique, but also plenty of holes. He's got a bright future though and I'd love that Korean Super Boy fight now that I've seen dude's chin really tested.

. Spicely's submission technique and Pantoja's insane pace at elevation were the two highlights of the undercard for me unless you count Sam Alvey's post fight interview. Assuncao vs Sterling was disappointing on both ends. Sterling still doesn't throw combinations, hardly even a one-two last night and Assuncao is still so light on the trigger that he'll be competitive but lose to most top tier competition.

[j4remi]

Got some up and comers and exciting fights on the way this weekend for FS1:

Bermudez vs Chan Sung Jung aka Korean Zombie: Bermudez is an exciting fighter who beat Max Holloway when Max was still developing and some other well knowns like Clay Guida. Pace is gonna be high for him. Korean Zombie got his nickname by forcing wars because he can take so much damage and has actually finished a UFC fight with a Twister (youtube it, Jung vs Garcia, it's sick!). Jung was on the rise, finishing three straight opponents before losing a title fight to Jose Aldo. He then had to leave for a two year mandatory military service in his native South Korea. This dude was one of the most exciting fighters in the division and was starting to beat top guys (submitted Poirier). The rust could be an issue, especially with Bermudez setting pace but this is pretty likely to be a flat out war.

Alexa Grasso vs Felice Herrig: Grasso is young, developing and already vicious with great hand speed and all around talent. Herrig is tough and a veteran but has kinda become a stepping stone for UFC's favorite new prospects lately. Grasso should win this...she's legit and I fully expect her to challenge for a title in the future.

Vick vs Trujillo: Trujillo has one punch KO power and Vick is insanely long. Trujillo's gas tank and technique are questionable but he's explosive, I think Vick continues his run up.

Ovince Saint Preux vs Oezdimir: I don't know the Swedish fighter to comment but OSP has always been an intriguing prospect. He's a super athlete, has a massive wingspan and is really strong with an unorthodox and tricky style...I expect he'll win because he's a notch below top dogs but a very game LHW.

Hamilton vs Fortuna: Haven't seen enough of Fortuna to comment, but he has a nice 9-1 record. Hamilton is plenty entertaining and a vet though, win or lose most of his fights end in finishes. Fortuna's a submission guy, Hamilton is susceptible there...but I'm not picking a horse in this race.

Andrade vs Hill: Jessica Andrade is an absolute killer at this 115, she was a good striker but small in 135 fights...now she's eating punches like nothing at 115 and still a major threat striking. Angela Hill is a pure striker but also a pure 115 lbs fighter, she was on Ultimate Fighter as a raw prospect but has won the Invicta title. Giving her a pure striking opponent seems like a great set up for a real show...assuming Andrade doesn't wrestle. This could steal the show if they trade.

The under card also has names to watch for. Curtis Blaydes is a MONSTER! Chris Gruetzemacher was a likeable guy from the Ultimate Fighter with great toughness and grinder styles (but grinders can be boring). Tecia Torres and Bec Rawlings is GREAT, Bec was one of the bigger bullies in the house and Torres was one of the bullied fighters. Tecia is also one of the top contenders in the division while Bec has been up and down, mostly down. I'm rooting for the bully to get more come uppance (because she ran her mouth against Paige Van Zant last time and got KO'ed badly). Fight pass also has a UF alum and great striker in Khalil Rountree and a legit up and comer who showed a ton of promise in his debut by taking out Brandon Thatch; Niko Price.

For the betters, I like Price, OSP and Grasso most. If I have to pick, I go Jung, Vick and Andrade in those match-ups. For the early fights, I love Tecia's chances and Niko Price as well considering how limited the info on his opponent is.

[waya]

Some big fights for the women's division tonight, wow. Theres a lot of buzz around Andrade being the next contender in the divison

[HarthorneWingo]

The guy who OSP is fighting is a dud.

[waya]

The guy who OSP is fighting is a dud.

Well OSP is coming off a bad loss to Manuwa and he's lost 3 of his last 4 so maybe he wanted a tune-up fight? That being said, his opponent has a pretty good record so who knows. Apparently his grappling his weak so OSP could always fall back on his wrestling I suppose

[HarthorneWingo]

The guy who OSP is fighting is a dud.

Well OSP is coming off a bad loss to Manuwa and he's lost 3 of his last 4 so maybe he wanted a tune-up fight? That being said, his opponent has a pretty good record so who knows. Apparently his grappling his weak so OSP could always fall back on his wrestling I suppose

Did OSP even train for this fight? He looked horrible.