Analysis of the standings-Prediction for 09 lottery!

[klemen4]

I know the season is young, but the standings give us a good look on the possible final standings in april.

Lets predict what spot wil NY have in 09 lottery?

Standings on 22.11.

EAST

boston 12-2
orlando 9-3
cleveland 9-3
detroit 8-4
atlanta 8-4
toronto 6-6
mimai 6-6
philadelphia 6-6

new york 6-6
chicago 6-7
indiana 5-6
new yersey 5-6
milwaukee 6-8
charlotte 3-8
washington 1-9

In the East I think chicago, indiana,new yersey and milwaukee will finish with more wins than NY, that leaves only Charlotte and Washinton as the teams with less wins than Ny. Washington with Arenas on the end could overtake Ny.

So my final vertict is 2-3 bottom place in East.


WEST

lakers 10-1
utah 8-5
houston 8-5
phoenix 8-5
portland 8-5
denver 8-5
new orleans 6-5
san antonio 6-6

dallas 6-7
golden state 5-7
sacramento 5-9
memphis 4-8
minessota 2-9
la clippers 2-10
oklahoma 1-12


The West has more good teams so the bottom teams have less options to get a win. For sure Oklahoma will finish last, Minesotta and Memphis the next two teams which will finish with less wins than Ny.I belive Clipper swill rise and compete for playoff, also dallas. Gsw probably has no chance for playoff but will finish with more wins than Ny. Than we are only left with Sacramento which is hard to predict.

So my final verdict is oklahoma, minessota, memphis finish bellow Ny, sacramento is on the same level.


The final standins for 09 lottery:

1.oklahoma
2.-4.
minessota
memphis
charlotte
5.-7.
washington
ny
sacramento

So probabable the highest Ny can finish is 5-th place!

Your opinion?

[supergallinari]

i think the knicks are a better team than we were before the trade and will make the 7th or 8th seed.

[the bizness]

well I'm not sure how the trade is going to affect the team, but I think the thunder and t-wolves for sure will be worse, then maybe the clippers, bobcats, grizzlies, wizards, kings, nets. that's about 8 teams, so I think they could wind up anywhere from 3rd to 9th.

also looking at the east, I don't think the knicks were really going to make the playoffs anyway. I am going to bet right now that boston, cleveland, orlando, detroit, atlanta, miami, indiana and philadelphia all make it to the playoffs.

[klemen4]

The Knicks are 6-6, but dont forget that the only 2(uta,bos) of 12 oponents were +50% teams

6 wins
miami
charlote
@washington
utah
oklahoma
@ memphis

6 loses
@philadelphia
milwauke
@san antonio
dallas
@boston
@milwauke

[klemen4]

I also looked at the future schedule...of next 25 games only 10 are at home and a few good teams will visit MSG...it doesnt look good...loterry here we come

[JAX]

yeah out .500 + record is misleading to say the least. I also am on boat w/ that these trades don't make us a worse team. I never thought Jamal was all that. Yea they were our best players but that wasn't saying much.

edit: our best player then and now doesn't play. I have turned the corner and never want to see him play in NY again, but would like to see him able to play, and I would rather have that roster spot for either a PatJr. or to do a 2 for 3 type trade (for example in that LAC trade trying to suck out DeAndre)

[Tommy Udo 6]

This will help

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0809.htm

how tough is the schedule so far for these teams?

Example - Bulls have played 11 games but 8 of those games are against top 9 opponents, with # 6 scheduled for Sunday. Their schedule strength so far is shown RANK column. Knicks strength is 26, which means it will get harder. That's a good thing if you want to keep losing.

[KnicksScholar24]

The Knicks will get a top 10 draft pick. Harrington, Thomas, and Mobley can hit threes, but I still don't think the team has enough defense to be a .500 team, or make the playoffs. Depends on what other deals go down. If they could move Curry for a decent piece and draft pick, then make they could end up a 41 win team.

[Boss_]

Im interested in seeing our ball movement with Crawford and Zach gone now

[thefuriousfive]

and i'm interested in getting hasheeem thabeeet

[the bizness]

This will help

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0809.htm

how tough is the schedule so far for these teams?

Example - Bulls have played 11 games but 8 of those games are against top 9 opponents, with # 6 scheduled for Sunday. Their schedule strength so far is shown RANK column. Knicks strength is 26, which means it will get harder. That's a good thing if you want to keep losing.

yeah strength of schedule is definitely a factor but I was also basing my predictions on their "expected winning percentage" which is based on points differential and a lot of other mumbo jumbo:
http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2009/

I've looked at it for the past few years and it's been pretty accurate in predicting records. it's still early though and I do think strength of schedule is a factor in the first month more than any other (schedules usually wind up balancing out after about 20-25 games).

Pythagorean Record - At the team level, analysts prefer to use measures based on a team's point differential rather than actual win-loss record because wins in close games tend not to reflect a team's true skill. Teams that start the season with a better record than their point differential tend to slow down and vice versa. Point differential is also a better predictor of future performance than win-loss record.

The actual "Pythagorean" method for calculating expected record is borrowed from baseball, where it was pioneered by Bill James. It takes the general form PF^X / PF^X + PA^X, where X is an exponent that varies depending on the sport. In the NBA, the preferred exponent is 16.5. This site generally uses Expected Wins, found by the relationship that each point per game of differential is on average worth 2.7 wins over the course of the season:

ExWins = 2.7 * Diff + 41 ExWin% = 2.7 * Diff + 41 / 82

anyway I threw out guessing for teams within the .400-.500 range since they could go either way this early in the season. but for teams .300 and under I figured they'd be pretty terrible and for teams .600 and up I figured they'd already shown they're pretty good.