24,15, and 2...Oden

[JohnStarksTheDunk]

He played a year, so he had college days.. what are you talking about.. should we just forget that one year in college? what world do you live in... And stop with the injury excuse and the big adjustment excuse, if this guy is supposed to be a Franchise talent, then much more is expected.. tell me, what big adjustment did Kobe, garnett, howard, have to make? didn't they have the same adjustment? and all did well in their first year....

Kobe: 7.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.3 apg in 15.5 minutes
KG: 10.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.6 blks in 28.7 minutes
Howard: 12 ppg, 10 rpg, 1.7 blks in 32.6 minutes
Oden: 8.3 ppg, 7 rpg, 1.1 blks in 22.7 minutes

One could argue that Oden would be putting up similar stats if given the same minutes as KG and Dwight, respectively. I could throw up the rookie numbers for Shawn Kemp (who played a year of Jr. College bball) and JO, but my point is that LeBron is the exception. High school players usually take time to develop, particularly bigmen.

Granted, Dwight is the only one of those guys who was taken #1 overall. Based on the hype, Oden has definitely been a disappointment. However, the adjustment time excuse is somewhat legit, and combined with his injuries (in both college and the pros), I think it has contributed to the disappointing start to his career.

Either way Im not saying he will be Bill Russell that ESPN liked to hype him up as, but I do believe that he will be a constant all star. I do expect him to be a 18/12/3 type player with good a good FG percentage.

WOW!! those are some pretty gaudy numbers.... I am not sure.. but, hey, time will tell..

Given what little we've seen of him so far, I think the 18 ppg and 3 blks might be a little high, but he could probably average almost 12 rebs now if he was playing 35-40 minutes. In my opinion, 15/12/2 is something he'd be capable of sometime in the next year or two, so we'll have to see how he develops beyond then.

One thing is for sure though -- we do have to adjust our expectations for him. All of the hype coming out of high school and then in the draft, people were thinking he'd be the next great center, putting up 25/12/3, and now, barring the development of an outstanding post game, that's not likely at all.

But if he can become an anchor for their team inside with his defense and rebounding, while chipping in as a #2 or #3 scorer, then he could be an important piece for a championship team. Robert Parish was a 9 time all-star and was never one of the elites, like an Olajuwon or David Robinson.

Or he could be the next Kwame . . . .

[TKF]

Given what little we've seen of him so far, I think the 18 ppg and 3 blks might be a little high, but he could probably average almost 12 rebs now if he was playing 35-40 minutes. In my opinion, 15/12/2 is something he'd be capable of sometime in the next year or two, so we'll have to see how he develops beyond then.

One thing is for sure though -- we do have to adjust our expectations for him. All of the hype coming out of high school and then in the draft, people were thinking he'd be the next great center, putting up 25/12/3, and now, barring the development of an outstanding post game, that's not likely at all.

But if he can become an anchor for their team inside with his defense and rebounding, while chipping in as a #2 or #3 scorer, then he could be an important piece for a championship team. Robert Parish was a 9 time all-star and was never one of the elites, like an Olajuwon or David Robinson.

Or he could be the next Kwame . . . .

GREAT POST, and that is my point, and you pretty much summed up the way I feel here. when people start using the word, "special" with oden, then he would have to be in the range of 25/12/3, and to me that is not likely... All I am saying is that we have to adjust our expectations..

Now one point I want to make about the adjustment period. Kobe was not a starter with the lakers and KG only started 43 games..... plus they were both 2 years younger than oden, for what thats worth...

but again, I think the key is, that we need to lower or adjust the expectations with him, and that some of the concerns some may have with his game, are legit...

[Induveca]

I'm not a huge fan of Oden, but you people are forgetting how damn young he still is, AND coming off microfracture surgery. It took Stoudemire a full season to come back and then he began to dominate again.

To expect this kid to be dominating Shaq after all of this drama is very unrealistic. Give him a few years, the fact he can put up that statline against ANY center in the league after surgery/in his rookie season impresses me.

I think the worst thing about all of this is the kid lost a certain percentage of his ability from this surgery for his career, we'll never know everything he could have been.

[Dantares]

GREAT POST, and that is my point, and you pretty much summed up the way I feel here. when people start using the word, "special" with oden, then he would have to be in the range of 25/12/3, and to me that is not likely... All I am saying is that we have to adjust our expectations..

I think since they allowed zone defense no big man in the NBA has scored 25ppg except Amare and Yao, and those two guys can shoot. You cant bully your way into big scoring games with size and power anymore like Shaq used too, the double teams come faster and more often. Dwight's career best is 20ppg.

Nonetheless 20/12/3 would be "special". Shaq only has 3 years averaging those numbers.

[TKF]

I'm not a huge fan of Oden, but you people are forgetting how damn young he still is, AND coming off microfracture surgery. It took Stoudemire a full season to come back and then he began to dominate again.

To expect this kid to be dominating Shaq after all of this drama is very unrealistic. Give him a few years, the fact he can put up that statline against ANY center in the league after surgery/in his rookie season impresses me.

I think the worst thing about all of this is the kid lost a certain percentage of his ability from this surgery for his career, we'll never know everything he could have been.

and that was part of the argument. He is putting up decent stats vs team with no center. But when he plays teams with decent centers, not even good centers, he doesn't do well. this was pointed out on ESPN a few weeks ago, by collin cowherd.. vs guys like biendrins, skinny, weaker centers, he can do well, but against the shaqs, okafors, even lopez and dalembert, he put up 2/1, 2/3, those are god awful numbers, and he showed a similar trend his 1 year at OSU.. just something to think about..

[Induveca]

TKF, always respect your opinions you stick to your guns. But I think all of you guys are overreacting a bit for a rookie........

12/30: 13/11 vs Kendrick Perkins in 35 minutes
12/27: 16/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 28 minutes
12/12: 15/15 vs Camby in 42 minutes
12/7: 10/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 27 minutes
11/30: 11/13 vs Rasheed Wallace in 30 minutes
11/14: 11/11 vs Tyson Chandler in 24 minutes
11/16: 8/10 vs Brad Miller in 21 minutes

All of those guys are very strong defensively. And Chandler/Miller/O'Neal/Perkins/Wallace are extremely strong physically (Camby is well, no.....but swats shots left and right).

Give the kid some slack here. I'm not even a fan (he is a boring guy to watch thus far), but those numbers in mostly limited minutes off major reconstructive/microfracture knee surgery are impressive. You know you see it TKF, cmon back off the argument a bit.....no one will mind. LOL

[TKF]

TKF, always respect your opinions you stick to your guns. But I think all of you guys are overreacting a bit for a rookie........

12/30: 13/11 vs Kendrick Perkins in 35 minutes
12/27: 16/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 28 minutes
12/12: 15/15 vs Camby in 42 minutes
12/7: 10/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 27 minutes
11/30: 11/13 vs Rasheed Wallace in 30 minutes
11/14: 11/11 vs Tyson Chandler in 24 minutes
11/16: 8/10 vs Brad Miller in 21 minutes

All of those guys are very strong defensively. And Chandler/Miller/O'Neal/Perkins/Wallace are extremely strong physically (Camby is well, no.....but swats shots left and right).

Give the kid some slack here. I'm not even a fan (he is a boring guy to watch thus far), but those numbers in mostly limited minutes off major reconstructive/microfracture knee surgery are impressive. You know you see it TKF, cmon back off the argument a bit.....no one will mind. LOL

Good post Induveca, I was waiting for someone to post those numbers, (although I looked them up before I made my last few post).. Good homework here. And yes, those are good numbers vs good defenders, and you can't deny the stats, but there are many more games where he was just god awful. for instance vs the hornets in another meeting on 11/28 and had a 1/8 game, and vs the kincks 2/7 and the mavs 4/5.. I mean these are awful games. I just see way to many of them, but i will back off some.. LOL.. I like the kid and I am cutting him slack, this is why i am saying that people need to back up off using the words "special" with oden and then making excuses for his poor performance brushing it off on being a rookie and needing time.. that may well be true, but How can we set the bar so high for a player, yet make excuses for a large number of very poor performances.

You make some great points. All I am saying is lets just lower the expectations a bit....

[j4remi]

I take exception to requiring 25/12/3 to be special. That's crazy. Bill Russel and Dikembe Mutombo the two C's most commonly compared to Oden were known for Defense not scoring. Oden can become a game changer defensively and be special. If he's going 18-20/12-14/3-4 ...he's a special C. Look at the averages around the league.

TKF, you're pointing out bad performances outnumbering the good ones...can we get them lined up or counted for judgment? Either way, it's COMMON for rookies to be inconsistent. If you think Dwight didn't have a few piss poor games as a rookie you're crazy. Every rookie has these issues with consistency and YES it falls on the foul trouble mainly, but that's something we've said repeatedly improves with time.

[RutgersBJJ]

why does everyone compare Oden to Howard? Howard is a once in a generation talent. Look at Oden's numbers compared to everyone's favorite overrated big man, Andrew Bynum. Oden is matching his production right now with better defense. Comparing people to howard is unfair. That is like saying Kevin Durant sucks because he can't compare to Lebron. In Oden's rookie season he is putting up better numbers than Bogut did and doing so at a younger age. Same thing with Kaman. Stop comparing him to Howard or Yao.

Oden is already at the same level as Bynum, and his rookie season matches or surpasses anything Bogut or Kaman have done.

Look how long it took for Bargs to finally become a good player.

[Induveca]

TKF, always respect your opinions you stick to your guns. But I think all of you guys are overreacting a bit for a rookie........

12/30: 13/11 vs Kendrick Perkins in 35 minutes
12/27: 16/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 28 minutes
12/12: 15/15 vs Camby in 42 minutes
12/7: 10/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 27 minutes
11/30: 11/13 vs Rasheed Wallace in 30 minutes
11/14: 11/11 vs Tyson Chandler in 24 minutes
11/16: 8/10 vs Brad Miller in 21 minutes

All of those guys are very strong defensively. And Chandler/Miller/O'Neal/Perkins/Wallace are extremely strong physically (Camby is well, no.....but swats shots left and right).

Give the kid some slack here. I'm not even a fan (he is a boring guy to watch thus far), but those numbers in mostly limited minutes off major reconstructive/microfracture knee surgery are impressive. You know you see it TKF, cmon back off the argument a bit.....no one will mind. LOL

Good post Induveca, I was waiting for someone to post those numbers, (although I looked them up before I made my last few post).. Good homework here. And yes, those are good numbers vs good defenders, and you can't deny the stats, but there are many more games where he was just god awful. for instance vs the hornets in another meeting on 11/28 and had a 1/8 game, and vs the kincks 2/7 and the mavs 4/5.. I mean these are awful games. I just see way to many of them, but i will back off some.. LOL.. I like the kid and I am cutting him slack, this is why i am saying that people need to back up off using the words "special" with oden and then making excuses for his poor performance brushing it off on being a rookie and needing time.. that may well be true, but How can we set the bar so high for a player, yet make excuses for a large number of very poor performances.

You make some great points. All I am saying is lets just lower the expectations a bit....

I don't expect Dwight Howard or Shaq, or Hakeem from Oden. But I do think he could be the next Mutombo like player. His slow/mechanical approach reminds me a lot of Deke. If that's all you mean TKF, I'm right there with ya!

And thanks for giving some real analysis to this board. Not sure if I've been getting old and grumpy, or the post quality on RealGM has dropped significantly, but it's certainly nice to have others capable of doing actual research.

[TKF]

TKF, always respect your opinions you stick to your guns. But I think all of you guys are overreacting a bit for a rookie........

12/30: 13/11 vs Kendrick Perkins in 35 minutes
12/27: 16/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 28 minutes
12/12: 15/15 vs Camby in 42 minutes
12/7: 10/10 vs Jermaine O'Neal in 27 minutes
11/30: 11/13 vs Rasheed Wallace in 30 minutes
11/14: 11/11 vs Tyson Chandler in 24 minutes
11/16: 8/10 vs Brad Miller in 21 minutes

All of those guys are very strong defensively. And Chandler/Miller/O'Neal/Perkins/Wallace are extremely strong physically (Camby is well, no.....but swats shots left and right).

Give the kid some slack here. I'm not even a fan (he is a boring guy to watch thus far), but those numbers in mostly limited minutes off major reconstructive/microfracture knee surgery are impressive. You know you see it TKF, cmon back off the argument a bit.....no one will mind. LOL

Good post Induveca, I was waiting for someone to post those numbers, (although I looked them up before I made my last few post).. Good homework here. And yes, those are good numbers vs good defenders, and you can't deny the stats, but there are many more games where he was just god awful. for instance vs the hornets in another meeting on 11/28 and had a 1/8 game, and vs the kincks 2/7 and the mavs 4/5.. I mean these are awful games. I just see way to many of them, but i will back off some.. LOL.. I like the kid and I am cutting him slack, this is why i am saying that people need to back up off using the words "special" with oden and then making excuses for his poor performance brushing it off on being a rookie and needing time.. that may well be true, but How can we set the bar so high for a player, yet make excuses for a large number of very poor performances.

You make some great points. All I am saying is lets just lower the expectations a bit....

I don't expect Dwight Howard or Shaq, or Hakeem from Oden. But I do think he could be the next Mutombo like player. His slow/mechanical approach reminds me a lot of Deke. If that's all you mean TKF, I'm right there with ya!

And thanks for giving some real analysis to this board. Not sure if I've been getting old and grumpy, or the post quality on RealGM has dropped significantly, but it's certainly nice to have others capable of doing actual research.

Yea, I think we agree here. I think he is a lot more athletic than deke but the movements are reminiscent of deke, especially offensively and if he can come close defensively to deke in his prime, he should be fine... but I just don't see him in the mold of the other "special" centers you mentioned, and I think people need to adjust their expectations..

Thanks for the compliments, I always enjoy a good , intelligent conversation...

[TKF]

I take exception to requiring 25/12/3 to be special. That's crazy. Bill Russel and Dikembe Mutombo the two C's most commonly compared to Oden were known for Defense not scoring. Oden can become a game changer defensively and be special. If he's going 18-20/12-14/3-4 ...he's a special C. Look at the averages around the league.

TKF, you're pointing out bad performances outnumbering the good ones...can we get them lined up or counted for judgment? Either way, it's COMMON for rookies to be inconsistent. If you think Dwight didn't have a few piss poor games as a rookie you're crazy. Every rookie has these issues with consistency and YES it falls on the foul trouble mainly, but that's something we've said repeatedly improves with time.

well both bill russell and deke were dominant... I am not sure if they even kept blocked shot stats when russell played. but lets take bill out of this, mentioning he and oden in the same sentence is almost ridiculous.. If mutombo is a benchmark for oden, then that is fair..


And yes, I understand inconsistencies, all rookies have that, but again, oden has looked absolutely Horrible, more than he has even looked almost good.... for me, that would just worry me a bit, if I were a blazers fan. Maybe there is nothing to it. I am just mentioning it, since there seems to be some kind of trend. Nothing is set in stone here...