Ping Pong Ball Tracker

[thelead]

________ (1/26/13) Update ___________

Sole possession of the 5th worst record.
___________________________________

Our chances to win one of the top 3 picks (currently 5th worst record):

1st - 8.8%
2nd - 9.7%
3rd - 10.7%

[dsg2021]

Great thread, it should be stickied and updated. It was already noted Magic were looking at 7th worst/7th pick like 14-15 games in but we're holding steady there with the halfway point looming much closer.

That 5th spot is an added up to 27%~ chance of some kind of top three pick.. That was alittle higher than I thought. Tho, I think with luck we're selecting 4-6th, expecting 7th, normal to get 8-10th pick too.

[OrlandO]

Enjoy the losses while they're piling up... when big baby comes back we'll go back to winning too often to be in the top 5.

[thelead]

Enjoy the losses while they're piling up... when big baby comes back we'll go back to winning too often to be in the top 5.

There is also a good chance that a trade goes down (one or more of these could be gone in the next month or two: JJ/Afflalo/BBD/Jameer/Harrington/McRoberts/Ayon) so we'll have to see what Rob and his crew are planning.

[shadrock]

Suns won tonight, which means we are getting even closer to being 5th worst. I must admit, i am in full draft pick mode (different to tank mode), and while i dont wish for us to lose, i dont really see the point in middling the pack either.

In my opinion, there is a right an a wrong way that this season can play out for us, and it all hinges on the deadline. The right way is for us to go about business is to cash out our veterans now while they have relatively high stock, particularly JJ and Baby, and hopefully a few others. From watching Henny go about business sofar, i feel very confident that this is what will happen. The evidence i have to support this is:

A ) His increased playing time to backup veterans lately (IE: McRoberts, Ayon, etc). Shows that he is showcasing talent and trying to entice trade offers. (Noticed Nicholsons drop in minutes lately? I dont think its a coincidence)
B ) His already announced priority of developing youth, and the readiness of Vucevic/Nicholson to take the reigns. Keeping Baby and JJ etc would fly right in the face of this, and prevent our future guys like Nicholson from starting.
C ) The impact that winning can have on draft picks. With Baby in the lineup, we are a .500 team, and a .500 team doesnt get Shabazz in the draft.
D ) Hennys expressed desire to have flexibility, and the implications that retaining JJ would have. Because lets be clear, if we dont trade JJ at the deadline, then its obvious we plan to try and keep him, and keeping him means an annual contract around $8mil, meaning we have $16 mil per season tied up between AA and JJ at SG, and a lot less cap space to go for a star. We lose a lot of our flexibility by keeping JJ. Not a good idea in my opinion.
E ) The current through the roof value of JJ and Baby. A lot of our veterans are at the top of their game right now, and their value is at an alltime high, and we need to cash in on this. Should we keep them, their value will drop consistently as the youth on this team develops and begins to take minutes and as the vets continue to age, and we may end up with nothing but a pile of pointless wins to show for them. One would hope that Nicholson would be starting over Baby by start of next season, how do you expect this to impact on Baby's value?

To me, trading out our veterans now is the FAR best option for the franchise. However, this is where several teams have been trapped in the past, and have decided to retain the vets. Really the only thing keeping the vets in Orlando is the emotional attachment we have to them, but its time to forget this and do whats right for the team. We traded Dwight for youth and picks, if we wanted vets and role players, we could have gotten them for him, but thats not our direction. Should we retain our vets past the deadline, then i would be shocked, and would really start to question the thought process of Henny. But to his credit, he has been right on the spot sofar, his moves have been logical and have all fit in with the overall vision of the organisation, hes been following the 'process' as he says, and i would expect trading the vets to be the next part of the process to take place, which will set us up perfectly for the following step of the process, which is securing a high draft pick and having significant cap space in the summer of 2014.



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[dsg2021]

Trading is half finding the takers in my guess, because that is why so many trades don't happen and vets expire anyways. But we are def seeing BBD and JJ with basically high trade value the past season or so; ESPN had an article on trade ideas with BBD going to DEN and giving a different look with Faried at PF for Coach Karl, JJ has likewise been in a few trade ideas and is likely a better fit league-wide.

My guess is the best move the FO can make, is to make like POR and SEA and try to trade for lotto picks like many of us fans have noted, like taking any 2013-14 or 2012-13 lotto picks in trade which is hard but the Magic can literally take away salary (17mil TPE, partial Hedo/AL deals) while adding real impact vets (BBD, JJ, Afflalo, Jameer, Ayon) and can throw in the "exchange first rounders" with the lotto-bound aspect being very key.

Maybe we can do the next Gerald Wallace for 6th pick now or Kyle Lowry for next year's lotto pick.

Trading for next season lotto pick(s) makes even more sense because of that supposedly notable draft class and the option for the trader to keep not only their current lotto pick but gain a proven player(s) in one last big upgrade of a half-season/summer (via keeping current lotto pick, adding an impact veteran like JJ, and trading away flotsam for Magic TPE space to maintain the current summer of cap space would be a homerun for an insta-improve team plan).

Meanwhile the Magic could potentially load up on two lotto chances in the 2014 draft for the first step of a rebuild.

The most fascinating thing to me so far was that the new FO, that was still in-the-making no less, had picked Nicholson and O'Quinn (although ironically, the old FO did some Nicholson workouts too and so did the new FO members to some capacity from their old teams) and for a 19th and 2nd round pick, that's already looking like a homerun draft hit. Then the aptitude to take the 15th pick in trade (Harkless, 19 yr old defensive beast already) and last season's 16th pick (Vucevic who is already getting top 5-10 nods in redraft articles) shows a potentially serious strength with drafting for our franchise. The new obviousness in the franchise's draft/youth-leaning for potential trades is only boosted by also being a reputable FA player destination as becoming a main fall back (would it even be a fall back plan?) too, incase there is no, once again, (serious or over-bluffing), takers - which is what makes it hard to find actually completed NBA trades from all the ideas and rumors out there.

[shadrock]

The point you make about the strength of our drafting is very intresting, and something that makes all those seemingly low value late first round picks from the Dwight trade a little bit more appealing. If we can get talent like Harkless, Nicholson, and Vucevic from picks outside the lottery, then those picks could be very handy...

Anyway, back on topic, we have drifted a little. Magic have a tough game coming up vs NYK, followed by a road trip, so it is entirely feasible that we are 12-24 soon, which would put us a clear 5th worst i think. The hope is that some of these teams with worse records start to catch fire like the Raptors have recently, which is possible. NOLA have just gotten Eric Gordon back, and once he gets into gameshape, and with more time and experience for Davis, they could quite easily make steady improvement. Same goes for the Wiz once Wall gets back, but who knows when that will be. And i must say im surprised that the Cavs arent doing better now that Kyrie is back. Thought he would be the boost they needed, but who knows, they certainly have the potential to win a string of games with Kyrie, Waiters, Varejao etc...

But again, this is all pointless if we dont trade the vets at the deadline, as we will be a .500 team with Davis on the court.

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[Cigamodnalro]

Some very, very good posts in this thread. Not much I can really add without rehash.

Two observations:

1. We are probably not going to get Shabazz. (A) WAS may not be catchable regardless, and (B) WAS is substantially more likely to tank, meaning intentionally lose, than we are. That entire team is comprised of career losers, many of whom play entirely for themselves. Even Nene, the one player with a history of team success on that squad, is notorious for the more selfish aspects of his character. We are a team built around veterans with largely winning pedigrees and hard working young players that have enjoyed great success in HS and in college. We have a coach who expects nothing less than to win, and injuries and trades are the only occurrences that can keep us from being a fringe playoff team.

2) It is clear what we need to do. Injuries have happened, and trades likely will (and should) as well. This team may already have damned itself from playoff contention (.500 the rest of the way puts us at approximately 36-46). There is no sense to hovering in the middle. We NEED to capitalize on the value of some of our veterans. I love Redick and Glen Davis, but we should look to trade both. Paying a tandem of two, 27-year-old role players a combined $16,000,000 does not fit the vision of this team at all, and this is doubly true if we are able to position ourselves to replace the production of one of them by drafting a Ben McLemore type SG or a Archie Goodwin or Marcus Smart type combo guard in the draft. We have to explore trade possibilities to get younger and to accumulate assets and retain flexibility. THIS fits Hennigan's "process,"'and I have every faith (and hope) that we see it at the deadline.

[trebone]

I honestly cant believe some of you wanting to lose game to maybe have a chance to at best grab a 2-3rd option a few years down the road, I would rather fight for a playoff spot and a mid 1st than end up with a Cody Zeller nolan, or shabazz who are not team changing talents

[Darth Magic]

First time in a long time I've had a season where i felt like the Magic can't lose. We are in pretty much every game and playing hard, but each loss brings us to our ultimate goal. A top 5 pick so we can select Marcus Smart.

[Cigamodnalro]

I honestly cant believe some of you wanting to lose game to maybe have a chance to at best grab a 2-3rd option a few years down the road, I would rather fight for a playoff spot and a mid 1st than end up with a Cody Zeller nolan, or shabazz who are not team changing talents

Would finishing 37-45 and lucking into the 8th spot, losing to the Miami heat by a huge margin in four consecutive games, getting the 16th pick in the draft, and overplaying our 26-30 year old veterans at the expense of our youth to achieve that end really be preferable to the alternative? Especially when several of those veterans could have been turned into youth or picks themselves, potentially speeding up and improving our rebuild to a considerable degree?

I think Redick really is the best way to illustrate this. Rank these three options:

A) Trade JJ Redick for a pick that forecasts in the 10-15 range in the 2014 NBA Draft
B) Keep JJ Redick, then let him walk for nothing as a free agent.
C) Re-sign JJ Redick to a multiyear deal starting at $8,500,000 a season, rewarding him for being a fan favorite and an Orlando Magic icon....while simultaneously destroying future cap flexibility and resulting in a platoon of aging role-playing SGs making, combined, almost $17,000,000.

I like Redick, and like him a lot, but in my eyes (C) is by far the worst position for this team moving forward (with [A] the best). I'd rather lose Redick for nothing this offseason than sign him to a large contract with Afflalo already locked up at almost $8,000,000 a season. I honestly am not sure that Redick/Afflalo at $17,000,000 brings all that more to the table than the Bulls debilitating $15,500,000 Boozer deal. It's just not prudent when you're competing with teams who have guys like LeBron James signed for 12.x million a year fighting for the same prize. And if your goal is not to win a championship, then, well, we are very different sorts of fans.

In any given four year period, I'd rather lose horribly three times and win everything one time than eek into the playoffs all four seasons. And I am absolutely positive any GM who has ever actually won anything would agree. There is no harder position, as a sports fan, than putting all of your faith in a team that you know, with confidence, is good but not good enough. That's what we were with Dwight last season, and really the season before as well. Give me youth and hope and potential, ultimately culminating in something very special, over a string of consecutive playoff births (and series losses) any day of the week.

[RYgoBOOM]

I honestly cant believe some of you wanting to lose game to maybe have a chance to at best grab a 2-3rd option a few years down the road, I would rather fight for a playoff spot and a mid 1st than end up with a Cody Zeller nolan, or shabazz who are not team changing talents

Would finishing 37-45 and lucking into the 8th spot, losing to the Miami heat by a huge margin in four consecutive games, getting the 16th pick in the draft, and overplaying our 26-30 year old veterans at the expense of our youth to achieve that end really be preferable to the alternative? Especially when several of those veterans could have been turned into youth or picks themselves, potentially speeding up and improving our rebuild to a considerable degree?

I think Redick really is the best way to illustrate this. Rank these three options:

A) Trade JJ Redick for a pick that forecasts in the 10-15 range in the 2014 NBA Draft
B) Keep JJ Redick, then let him walk for nothing as a free agent.
C) Re-sign JJ Redick to a multiyear deal starting at $8,500,000 a season, rewarding him for being a fan favorite and an Orlando Magic icon....while simultaneously destroying future cap flexibility and resulting in a platoon of aging role-playing SGs making, combined, almost $17,000,000.

I like Redick, and like him a lot, but in my eyes (C) is by far the worst position for this team moving forward (with [A] the best). I'd rather lose Redick for nothing this offseason than sign him to a large contract with Afflalo already locked up at almost $8,000,000 a season. I honestly am not sure that Redick/Afflalo at $17,000,000 brings all that more to the table than the Bulls debilitating $15,500,000 Boozer deal. It's just not prudent when you're competing with teams who have guys like LeBron James signed for 12.x million a year fighting for the same prize. And if your goal is not to win a championship, then, well, we are very different sorts of fans.

In any given four year period, I'd rather lose horribly three times and win everything one time than eek into the playoffs all four seasons. And I am absolutely positive any GM who has ever actually won anything would agree. There is no harder position, as a sports fan, than putting all of your faith in a team that you know, with confidence, is good but not good enough. That's what we were with Dwight last season, and really the season before as well. Give me youth and hope and potential, ultimately culminating in something very special, over a string of consecutive playoff births (and series losses) any day of the week.

If I could only sticky a post lol


Agreed on every point. I have NO CLUE why so many people on this board want to grab that royal 8th spot just so we can get smacked by the Heat/Knicks lol

[Tarot Magician]

A lot would have to go right to get the 1st pick (Pat Williams), but I'd be thrilled if FO can pull a Chris Webber for Penny type of deal. High pick in 2013+future firsts.

[rcklsscognition]

We need to try for a top 5 pick. Someone may emerge as a good pick between now and the draft. Things change.

[drsd]

The Magic has about the same chance today to win a top-3 in the lottery as to make the playoffs (both at a probable 5-10%). This is enough to engage both the tankers and the winners.

..

[RYgoBOOM]

I still think Shabazz is worth this gamble...

[shadrock]

I honestly cant believe some of you wanting to lose game to maybe have a chance to at best grab a 2-3rd option a few years down the road, I would rather fight for a playoff spot and a mid 1st than end up with a Cody Zeller nolan, or shabazz who are not team changing talents

Stop reading chad ford articles and do some proper research on this draft, there is more star potential in this drsft than most think. Archie Goodwin should be our priority, the guy is a slasher on the level of Harden, Wade, etc...

[UCF]

I love that our players are fighting hard to win games. However, looking long term it won't break my heart if we stay where we are at in the standings. A good draft pick and bringing back JJ would be great for next year.

[Cigamodnalro]

I love that our players are fighting hard to win games. However, looking long term it won't break my heart if we stay where we are at in the standings. A good draft pick and bringing back JJ would be great for next year.

So long as we trade Afflalo for future assets or young talent, I am totally on board with this.

[Skin]

I think we should rename this thread to "The Marcus Smart Lottery Ping Pong Tracker"