If the Magic get a top draft pick, who should they take?

[RookieStar]

No love for Cody Zeller, eh?

ummmm nope. I think we we're pretty much set for his position. Unless he is the BPA at where we are picking. Otherwise... go with guards for me

[G-Heel]

Guys like D12, BBD, Millsap, Griffin, etc. are not ideal sizes for their positions yet they play well in this league.

Anyone else find this sentence ridiculous? If you want to draft a player like BBD & Millsap with a top 3 pick, then I don't know what to say. So that leave us with Dwight & Griffin. I almost stopped reading when you put Dwight in this conversation.. Dwight isn't short -- 6'10.25 in shoes, and likely grew more from high school. He has a 9'3.5" standing reach, that's taller than most centers in this league. Blake Griffin is 6'8.5 WITHOUT shoes and he's still limited defensively because of his short wingspans -- just proving my point that height/length is very important in this league.

A 6'7 (in shoes) PF would put Bennett near the bottom of PFs in term of height. His 7'1 wingspan is good, but nothing special.

How is Bennett - Noel comparable to Okafor - Dwight at all? Both Bennett and Noel are freshman. And Bennett isn't physically limited - his physicality is one of his assets actually. His explosiveness and length are two of some of the biggest strengths in his game.

I agree it wasn't the best comparison. I was talking about how being better right now doesn't make a difference when you look at potential. Noel has the potential to be a great Center because of his size and he doesn't have anything limiting him that he cannot overcome. Bennett will forever be weighted down by his height; no matter what he does, he will still be an undersized PF.

In the NBA, the height and length differences will be a lot more than college, and make it harder for him to score. His athleticism will be match by taller, longer players -- then where is his advantage?

Is there a reason for this line of thought? Seems kind of random. He's not a franchise player? No one is from this draft. I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that Bennett is only going to be a "solid player" because you didn't provide information as to why.

What do you mean I haven't provide my reasoning? We been talking about his height this whole time! He will be a solid player, but I guaransheed he WILL NOT be a franchise player. Noel has that potential. He can give you decent offense and lockdown defense, this is the type of player we need to win a championship. Defense win championships. This is a guard game now, an offensive PF won't take you anywhere unless you're a 7 footer that can shoot from anywhere like Dirk. You need defensive bigmen.

Nice job letting everyone know you've never watched Bennett before.

Hey, you caught me! I'm not like you guys, watching Bennett every game. I'm not a professional analyst here. I just look at their game, highlights, their stats, and their measurement to make my judgment. Not saying I'm completely right, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say Noel will be better than Bennett. In fact, I would think a lot of people agree with me, since I haven't seen any draft board that put Bennett ahead of Noel.

To be honest, I don't even know why we're talking about Noel anymore, he's out for the season and probably won't declare this year anyway. This draft just got even worse.

[OrlChamps2030]

Anyone else find this sentence ridiculous? If you want to draft a player like BBD & Millsap with a top 3 pick, then I don't know what to say. So that leave us with Dwight & Griffin. I almost stopped reading when you put Dwight in this conversation.. Dwight isn't short -- 6'10.25 in shoes, and likely grew more from high school. He has a 9'3.5" standing reach, that's taller than most centers in this league. Blake Griffin is 6'8.5 WITHOUT shoes and he's still limited defensively because of his short wingspans -- just proving my point that height/length is very important in this league.

My point was is that Dwight is an inch short of the ideal center height (just like Bennett is an inch or 2 short of the ideal PF height..). Blake Griffin isn't an ideal big man, he has alligator arms. BBD, Millsap, and Bass are examples of guys who don't have great measurements and are solid players (and don't have the talent Bennett has).

I just put more stock into length measurements like wingspan and standing reach over height.

What do you mean I haven't provide my reasoning? We been talking about his height this whole time! He will be a solid player, but I guaransheed he WILL NOT be a franchise player. Noel has that potential. He can give you decent offense and lockdown defense, this is the type of player we need to win a championship. Defense win championships. This is a guard game now, an offensive PF won't take you anywhere unless you're a 7 footer that can shoot from anywhere like Dirk. You need defensive bigmen.

That's all speculation. Bennett has extreme upside as an elite scorer that can score from anywhere and has a good handle and athleticism. Noel has extreme upside as an elite anchor to a defense.

Hey, you caught me! I'm not like you guys, watching Bennett every game. I'm not a professional analyst here. I just look at their game, highlights, their stats, and their measurement to make my judgment. Not saying I'm completely right, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say Noel will be better than Bennett. In fact, I would think a lot of people agree with me, since I haven't seen any draft board that put Bennett ahead of Noel.

To be honest, I don't even know why we're talking about Noel anymore, he's out for the season and probably won't declare this year anyway. This draft just got even worse.

I don't watch Bennett every game either. I've watched several though and whenever I try and judge a college player I watch them first.

Oh and it's not unreasonable at all to think Noel will be better than Bennett. I never said otherwise, that was the other guy. I most likely would take Noel over Bennett but I wouldn't want to be forced to take Noel @ 1 which will happen (not anymore though I guess). I do think it's a little unreasonable to write off Bennett as a solid player and label Noel as a franchise player when neither have played a minute in the NBA, but that is your opinion.

[G-Heel]

You're underestimating the advantage of height. When's the last time a short PF/C dominate in the NBA? Charles Barkley? Ben Wallace? What about a short player at any other position? Not many either.

6'7 (that's in shoes, so my fact, was, in fact, correct) and a 7'1 wingspan, that's exactly like the player I compared him to -- Paul Millsap. And worse than Brandon Bass, who also did really well in college. Bennett may turn out to be better than both of them, but it's likely not going to be much.

Players like Bennett blooms early, but a couple of years down the line, they'll be left in the dust by players like Noel. Think Dwight and Okafor. That's why you see videos of "phenoms" kids and never heard of them again in the future; they were skilled, but their physical limitation held them back anbd eventually the other kids caught up and surpassed them.

If we're trying to win now in the next 2-3 years, then I would consider taking Bennett. That's not what we're doing though, we're trying to rebuild this team. You don't need a couple of solid players, you need a franchise player and I don't think Bennett is that.

You've obviously have never seen Bennett play have you... and that is understandable since UNLV doesn't get much airtime.

Bennett is 6'7" with a 7'1" wingspan, has great form and offensive skills for a 19 yr old, has extremely rare handles for a guy his size at his position this early in his career, and has explosive athleticism and strength.

You are a horrible evaluator of talent if you HAVE seen him play, but judging by how you have described him, you simply saw some write-ups online and have been watching Sportscenter highlights of Noel blocking the shots of underdeveloped college kids.

Mark my words... Noel will never average more than 18 ppg in the NBA, and thats IF he develops any semblence of an offense... Bennett has the potential to average 23 ppg. Rebounding will be a wash between these two, and Noel is the better defender no doubt.

Bennett is a beast, and is the most NBA ready prospect in this draft. He would be a perfect compliment to Vucevic given his ability to create his own shot, and make athletic plays that no one on our team can currently make.

You pretty much said the same things that Zmill said, so read my post above. I just want to respond to the bolded part. I disagree with it completely. Both are offensive-minded players, how do they complement each other? One weakness of Bennett is his defense.. but since I don't watch him enough, would you mind telling me if he improved or not? If not, Bennett and Vuc will be eaten alive by any good team. It is a disaster to have two bigmen that cannot play defense.

Let look at past few champions and their PF/C:
Heat (their C/PF rotation is all defense, except Chris Bosh. Every other position is packed with defense)
Mavs (Dirk & Chandler)
Lakers (Bynum & Gasol)
Celtics (Perkins & KG)
Spurs (TD & whoever)
If you go back further, there's Heat, more Spurs, Pistons, Lakers, etc. I do not see anyone with a player like Bennett. Defensive bigmen, I see plenty. Each team had a C that is considered great on defense, that just to show you how valuable a player like Noel is. In fact, only Chris Bosh & Dirk from that list are considered average on defense.

So I have to say Noel would a better fit with Vuc. Even if he never develop any offensive game, he can still help you win championships like Tyson Chandler, Perkins, etc.

[Skin]

Stop fighting.

Marcus Smart

/thread.

[G-Heel]

Oh and it's not unreasonable at all to think Noel will be better than Bennett. I never said otherwise, that was the other guy. I most likely would take Noel over Bennett but I wouldn't want to be forced to take Noel @ 1 which will happen (not anymore though I guess). I do think it's a little unreasonable to write off Bennett as a solid player and label Noel as a franchise player when neither have played a minute in the NBA, but that is your opinion.

I never said Noel is a definite franchise player -- I said he can be. I did said Bennett won't be a franchise player and I stand by that statement.

Here's my view
Noel:
good chance to be franchise player
great chance to be a valuable member to a championship team
average chance of being trash
Bennett:
little chance of being a franchise player
great chance to be a solid player
low chance of being trash
but not the type of player that is valuable to a championship team (for my reasoning, see the post above)

I know Noel is more likely to bust than Bennett. But he's a high-risk/high-reward type of player and we need that if we ever hope to build a championship team. This roster has a bunch of solid players and no superstar. For a top 5 pick, I want to draft someone with a chance of being a superstar.. I don't want to draft another solid player.

Again, this is before he got injured. Now, I don't know about Noel, he isn't going to fight Wiggins for the top spot next year draft. But I would strongly consider him next year if we were to the 2nd pick and Wiggins was already taken.

[G-Heel]

Stop fighting.

Marcus Smart

/thread.

Boo! I'm not too high on Smart either, but I don't want to argue anymore. Maybe next time...

[OrlChamps2030]

Oh and it's not unreasonable at all to think Noel will be better than Bennett. I never said otherwise, that was the other guy. I most likely would take Noel over Bennett but I wouldn't want to be forced to take Noel @ 1 which will happen (not anymore though I guess). I do think it's a little unreasonable to write off Bennett as a solid player and label Noel as a franchise player when neither have played a minute in the NBA, but that is your opinion.

I never said Noel is a definite franchise player -- I said he can be. I did said Bennett won't be a franchise player and I stand by that statement.

Here's my view
Noel:
good chance to be franchise player
great chance to be a valuable member to a championship team
average chance of being trash
Bennett:
little chance of being a franchise player
great chance to be a solid player
low chance of being trash
but not the type of player that is valuable to a championship team (for my reasoning, see the post above)

I know Noel is more likely to bust than Bennett. But he's a high-risk/high-reward type of player and we need that if we ever hope to build a championship team. This roster has a bunch of solid players and no superstar. For a top 5 pick, I want to draft someone with a chance of being a superstar.. I don't want to draft another solid player.

As someone who thinks Noel should go #1, I'm not sure I'd stand by a "good" chance for Noel to become a franchise player. He'd have to break atleast break the 18 ppg plane to get into the discussion and his game is just so raw right now on the offensive end it's hard to tell. But I definitely think Noel can have a Dwight-type of impact on the defensive end of the floor. I'd say average chance of becoming a franchise player maybe???

But for Bennett why is there such a gap between franchise player and solid player? He can't become just an all-star or near all-star? I just think you're underrating his offensive game a bit. He's freakishly quick for size which is the foundation for a lot of his offensive arsenal. He has the ability to take the defense off the dribble with either hand. Has great form on his jumper and shoots the mid range well and even has 3 point range (is streaky from 3 but its there). Face up game is nice too because of his quickness and his jumper. Finishes nearly automatic from under the rim. I think he has the potential to be a very "innovative" player on offense, like a tweener that actually pans out. He could potentially become a great iso scorer, pick & pop big, p & r big, ball handler, and cleans up the glass.

Noel is my #1 prospect out of this draft but I have a hard time deciding my #2 it's very close between McLemore and Bennett. And then you have guys like Smart and Burke on the next "level".

Not a big fan of scouting video but this one is pretty good at showing his strengths + versatility and his weaknesses, which is definitely his height. But I really think that he would be fine in the modern NBA playing as a PF because he can play farther from the rim. Like a better version of Millsap.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oekBTHJOL4[/youtube]

[Bensational]

from the highlights i've seen of Bennett, he looks solid. i wouldn't make him a priority to obtain, but he's certainly gifted on offense. very smooth, very flowing, very smart and patient, and he's got the ability to get up to the rim if given a bit of space. those skills will crossover to the NBA, as Nicholson has shown so far. Bennett is a more solid and athletic version of Nicholson, IMO, and i think the added athleticism will make him much more effective than Nicholson, eventually.

as for the draft, BPA is probably top priority at this point. if for whatever reason we slip to 6th and McLemore, Smart, Bazz are all gone, then Bennett is definitely in the mix. he's the kind of piece that will still be valuable as a trade chip, even if he doesn't have a long term future with the team (being that a Vuc/Bennett defense wouldn't be very strong).

[Bensational]

He has the ability to take the defense off the dribble with either hand.

i noticed that, too, in his highlights. fantastic handles for a player his size. that gets me excited as much as anything else. i wouldn't be surprised if he developed a solid passing game as his career progresses. he could end up having shades of CWebb.

[Nemesis21]

With the injury to Noel, the Magic having the 2nd or 3rd pick, I think you take Shabazz.


PG ?
SG Shabazz
SF Harkless
PF Nicholson
C Vucevic


Just a PG a way from a really great young starting core.

[fendilim]

I'd still take noel even if he is injured. Drafting shabazz or mclemore or anyone ready to contribute right away would only put us at the middle of the pack. The way things are run now, you need two to three stars to win a title. If we can land Noel this year, we still have chance for Wiggins next year.

And honestly, with the way our superstars have left our team for hollywood, it only increased my interest for the team to draft wiggins. The kid doesnt like attention. I think thats make him perfect for a small market team like the Magic.

[drsd]

Stop fighting.

Marcus Smart

/thread.

I would project Smart as a career back-up that plays big minutes as a combo-guard. That is not worth a top-5 pick.

I'd still take noel even if he is injured. Drafting shabazz or mclemore or anyone ready to contribute right away would only put us at the middle of the pack. The way things are run now, you need two to three stars to win a title. If we can land Noel this year, we still have chance for Wiggins next year.

And honestly, with the way our superstars have left our team for hollywood, it only increased my interest for the team to draft wiggins. The kid doesnt like attention. I think thats make him perfect for a small market team like the Magic.

Two points to this. One is that you project Noel to heal enough that he is still a defensive force AND that he will adapt to the PF in the NBA. With Redick likely moving on, Afflalo becomes a good tradeable asset in the off-season, if Orlando drafts McLemore.

The issue then becomes about the PG. Right now I am more sold on Burke as a future NBA starter than Smart. If Orlando trades Nelson for the rights to Burke, and some other assets, the 2013/14 Magic becomes something like:

PG: Burke/FA-or-trade/Smith
SG: McLemore/Moore
SF: Harkless/FA-or-trade/Jones
PF: Davis/Nicholson/McRoberts
C: Vučević/Ayón/O'Quinn

That might be the youngest team in league history. And an interesting core to tinker around with. By 2014/15 this could be a good playoff team again. Maybe just trade Davis off and use the saved money (Arenas would be off of the books!) to draft a super-stud PF. LBJ will also be available.


..

[Bensational]

taking bigs who aren't sure things with the #1 pick is a recipe for disaster. the league values big men so much, that come draft time they're often taken over better, more impactful wings and guards. the only bigs to be taken #1 recently and to have lived up to the hype are Shaq, Webber, Duncan and Howard. but for everyone of them, there's an Olowokandi, Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Bargnani, or the closely considered likes of Milicic, Okafor, Eddy Curry, etc. Then there are the talented big men who are plagued by injury which has killed their chances of actually winning a title - Ming, Oden, Bogut.

meanwhile there are a bunch of wings and guards who have been taken after an unsuccessful big man - Durant, Deron, Chris Paul, Melo, Wade, Carter, Pierce. Don't get me wrong, there are also a bunch of wings that have been taken who were massive busts, as well. There have also been years where the best talent to come out of the draft was a big man who wasn't taken #1. point being, big men rarely live up to the hype of a #1 pick at the expense of a more talented wing/guard.

just an aside... looking back over past drafts makes you realise just how weak some draft classes really are, and how strong others are. and considering that this has long been touted as a weak draft class, doesn't have me too hopeful.

[drsd]

taking bigs who aren't sure things with the #1 pick is a recipe for disaster. the league values big men so much, that come draft time they're often taken over better, more impactful wings and guards. the only bigs to be taken #1 recently and to have lived up to the hype are Shaq, Webber, Duncan and Howard. but for everyone of them, there's an Olowokandi, Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Bargnani, or the closely considered likes of Milicic, Okafor, Eddy Curry, etc. Then there are the talented big men who are plagued by injury which has killed their chances of actually winning a title - Ming, Oden, Bogut.

meanwhile there are a bunch of wings and guards who have been taken after an unsuccessful big man - Durant, Deron, Chris Paul, Melo, Wade, Carter, Pierce. Don't get me wrong, there are also a bunch of wings that have been taken who were massive busts, as well. There have also been years where the best talent to come out of the draft was a big man who wasn't taken #1. point being, big men rarely live up to the hype of a #1 pick at the expense of a more talented wing/guard.

just an aside... looking back over past drafts makes you realise just how weak some draft classes really are, and how strong others are. and considering that this has long been touted as a weak draft class, doesn't have me too hopeful.

McLemore, McLemore, he's are man, if he can't do it no one can!!!


..

[OrlChamps2030]

taking bigs who aren't sure things with the #1 pick is a recipe for disaster. the league values big men so much, that come draft time they're often taken over better, more impactful wings and guards. the only bigs to be taken #1 recently and to have lived up to the hype are Shaq, Webber, Duncan and Howard. but for everyone of them, there's an Olowokandi, Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Kenyon Martin, Bargnani, or the closely considered likes of Milicic, Okafor, Eddy Curry, etc. Then there are the talented big men who are plagued by injury which has killed their chances of actually winning a title - Ming, Oden, Bogut.

meanwhile there are a bunch of wings and guards who have been taken after an unsuccessful big man - Durant, Deron, Chris Paul, Melo, Wade, Carter, Pierce. Don't get me wrong, there are also a bunch of wings that have been taken who were massive busts, as well. There have also been years where the best talent to come out of the draft was a big man who wasn't taken #1. point being, big men rarely live up to the hype of a #1 pick at the expense of a more talented wing/guard.

just an aside... looking back over past drafts makes you realise just how weak some draft classes really are, and how strong others are. and considering that this has long been touted as a weak draft class, doesn't have me too hopeful.

McLemore, McLemore, he's are man, if he can't do it no one can!!!


..

McLemore has his flaws too. A lot of the same flaws Shabazz has actually. Cannot create his shot in the halfcourt, no handle, limited playmaking. McLemore could end up anywhere from Ray Allen to Jason Richardson to Nick Young.

McLemore could become a nice player in this league but there are going to be McLemore's literally every year in the draft.

[Skin]

Stop fighting.

Marcus Smart

/thread.

I would project Smart as a career back-up that plays big minutes as a combo-guard. That is not worth a top-5 pick.

I'd still take noel even if he is injured. Drafting shabazz or mclemore or anyone ready to contribute right away would only put us at the middle of the pack. The way things are run now, you need two to three stars to win a title. If we can land Noel this year, we still have chance for Wiggins next year.

And honestly, with the way our superstars have left our team for hollywood, it only increased my interest for the team to draft wiggins. The kid doesnt like attention. I think thats make him perfect for a small market team like the Magic.

Two points to this. One is that you project Noel to heal enough that he is still a defensive force AND that he will adapt to the PF in the NBA. With Redick likely moving on, Afflalo becomes a good tradeable asset in the off-season, if Orlando drafts McLemore.

The issue then becomes about the PG. Right now I am more sold on Burke as a future NBA starter than Smart. If Orlando trades Nelson for the rights to Burke, and some other assets, the 2013/14 Magic becomes something like:

PG: Burke/FA-or-trade/Smith
SG: McLemore/Moore
SF: Harkless/FA-or-trade/Jones
PF: Davis/Nicholson/McRoberts
C: Vučević/Ayón/O'Quinn

That might be the youngest team in league history. And an interesting core to tinker around with. By 2014/15 this could be a good playoff team again. Maybe just trade Davis off and use the saved money (Arenas would be off of the books!) to draft a super-stud PF. LBJ will also be available.


..

Smart as a career backup? Now that's golden... but then to say we can trade Jameer Nelson and somehow get Trey Burke??? Now THAT'S GOLDEN!!! HAHAHAHAHAAHAHA

I think you can only get this kind of stuff on real gm's magic forum. HAAHHAHAAH

[SloNick Russia]

McLemore has his flaws too. A lot of the same flaws Shabazz has actually. Cannot create his shot in the halfcourt, no handle, limited playmaking. McLemore could end up anywhere from Ray Allen to Jason Richardson to Nick Young.

It's difficult to say what he can't do at this point, looks like his team has a very well run offence and he is disciplined in his role on it - his shooting %s are crazy good for a SG, we'll know more after the workouts.

[magicaroni]

Here has what I am saying in essence...

I don't think anyone in this draft has superstar potential, but we have 5-6 guys that have All-Star potential.

When I look at our team, we have no one we can just give the ball to, clear out, and say go get us 2 points. That is why I like Bennett. He has talents at his size that no one else in this draft possesses.

And your point about Vuc being a scorer and complimenting Noel... The majority of Vuc's buckets come from putbacks, layups/dunks, or 10 ft jumpers. He has no face-up/drive game, or back to the basket game. He can't be depended on. He is a great cleanup guy and offensive rebounder with a decent 10 foot jumper. So we would be better served to grab a guy like Bennett IMO. Especially now with Noel's injury.

I wouldn't have any issue if we drafted a healthy Noel, however, there is a great chance he could become a Tyrus Thomas at best. His offensive game is just atrocious, and this seems to be an ongoing trend with big men coming out of Kentucky because of the great wing players they recruit. These kids lose one year of competitive training because they don't get the ball. Honestly, if Anthony Davis had gone to Duke or UNC, he would have been better off for it. Caliparri has done a horrible job with kids who come in and need work.

Another issue with Noel is that a lot of his blocks come after he has been backed all the way down under the hoop and then he blocks them out of pure athleticism. That will change in the NBA.

My top 5 at this point look like this:

1) McElmore
2) Shabazz
3) Bennett
4) Noel
5) (God help us if we get stuck with pick 5 or lower)

[OrlandoMagician]

Here has what I am saying in essence...

I don't think anyone in this draft has superstar potential, but we have 5-6 guys that have All-Star potential.

When I look at our team, we have no one we can just give the ball to, clear out, and say go get us 2 points. That is why I like Bennett. He has talents at his size that no one else in this draft possesses.

And your point about Vuc being a scorer and complimenting Noel... The majority of Vuc's buckets come from putbacks, layups/dunks, or 10 ft jumpers. He has no face-up/drive game, or back to the basket game. He can't be depended on. He is a great cleanup guy and offensive rebounder with a decent 10 foot jumper. So we would be better served to grab a guy like Bennett IMO. Especially now with Noel's injury.

I wouldn't have any issue if we drafted a healthy Noel, however, there is a great chance he could become a Tyrus Thomas at best. His offensive game is just atrocious, and this seems to be an ongoing trend with big men coming out of Kentucky because of the great wing players they recruit. These kids lose one year of competitive training because they don't get the ball. Honestly, if Anthony Davis had gone to Duke or UNC, he would have been better off for it. Caliparri has done a horrible job with kids who come in and need work.

Another issue with Noel is that a lot of his blocks come after he has been backed all the way down under the hoop and then he blocks them out of pure athleticism. That will change in the NBA.

My top 5 at this point look like this:

1) McElmore
2) Shabazz
3) Bennett
4) Noel
5) (God help us if we get stuck with pick 5 or lower)

There's merit to a lot of what you've said. But are you not at all worried about Bennett ending up one of those guys that go bust because they're a 3/4 'tweener. Will he have difficulties guarding those positions in the NBA?

I do like the way he can put the ball on the floor, get to work, outmuscle his man and score though.

Seems one of, if not the most NBA ready lottery pick in the draft. Would he be a 3 or a four on this team though?