Melvinlocker wrote:This post seriously needs to reach 50+ And 1's
You're welcome.
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Melvinlocker wrote:This post seriously needs to reach 50+ And 1's
Flannerz wrote:
I'm at work so will have to read it later
NEM wrote: However, I'm a fan of my team winning so, keep the winning coming. All the "tank" fans can take their crap to another board. We are here to win.
doct3r dr3 wrote:
The Suns' overall rebound rate wasn't negatively affected by Frye's presence (TRR: 44.5-->45.1; TRB%: 49.9-->50.2). The offensive rebounding rate did go down (12.1-->11.6), in part because of the decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (27.0-->25.9). But the team's shooting efficiency increased so much (eFG%: 49.2-->53.8) it overwhelmed whatever effect that might have on scoring, and the Suns scored far more per 100 possessions (104.9-->113.1).
On defense, Suns opponents attempted about one more field goal attempt off defensive rebounds per 100 possessions with Frye on the floor (21.5-->22.7), and they converted these attempts at a higher eFG% (46.5-->53.5), but that resulted in a negligible overall impact on their overall scoring output, in points per 100 possessions (106.8-->107.0). Frye's overall impact on offense seems to dramatically outweigh his overall impact on defense.
The approach of conceding defensive rebounds, and defending hard on the perimeter is an approach that the Miami Heat used successfully to win two titles.
mhectorgato wrote:Agree or disagree with the conclusion, you gotta respect the effort.
spinedoc wrote:A very detailed and thorough dissertation, but sadly one sided argument, in favor of the stretch four. Did you think about any of the cons of such an offense when writing this? For example, the effects of rebounding on a team, whether it be lower numbers from the traditional power position, or long carums off the rim? The opposing teams fastbreak transition due to the long rebounds, or foul trouble it may cause? Also, I don't see how advantageous it is to drew drafting Gordon, acquiring Frye, and retaining KOQ. I have other questions too, why didn't the suns go to the playoffs with this offense? Why didn't they try hard to keep frye? I hate the stretch four going back to shard. In fact, if hate were people, I'd be China. I don't mind a different look coming off the bench, but I despise constructing a team around it. I'm hoping Gordon develops very quickly, but I prefer KOQ there instead.
JDLAW wrote:As a Suns fan i can only say congratulations on Channing Frye. One of my favorite players. I think the effect in Orlando will be a bit different than with the Suns, because Dragic and Bledsoe are a little better shooters than Olidipo and Payton. When his shot is on, your offense will look fantastic as then floor spacing will be such that both of your guards will be able to get anywhere they want to on the floor. He will also open space for your big center down low. Even when his shot is off, he still has to be guarded because he goes on long streaks when he gets hot and can break open a game with this 3 pt shooting. He is a very good defensive player in the post, but struggles a little when he gets too far out on the wing.
Last year, he was terrific the first 2/3 of the season and tapered off the last 1/3. I think it was fatigue from having sat out the previous year.
You will also get good leadership from him for your young team.
The price was a little high, but you had the room and offered a smart (declining) contract.
He will be very good for the Magic.
Orlwillbeback wrote:JDLAW wrote:As a Suns fan i can only say congratulations on Channing Frye. One of my favorite players. I think the effect in Orlando will be a bit different than with the Suns, because Dragic and Bledsoe are a little better shooters than Olidipo and Payton. When his shot is on, your offense will look fantastic as then floor spacing will be such that both of your guards will be able to get anywhere they want to on the floor. He will also open space for your big center down low. Even when his shot is off, he still has to be guarded because he goes on long streaks when he gets hot and can break open a game with this 3 pt shooting. He is a very good defensive player in the post, but struggles a little when he gets too far out on the wing.
Last year, he was terrific the first 2/3 of the season and tapered off the last 1/3. I think it was fatigue from having sat out the previous year.
You will also get good leadership from him for your young team.
The price was a little high, but you had the room and offered a smart (declining) contract.
He will be very good for the Magic.
Thanks for the input.
Can you shed some light on his heart condition? I honestly don't know much about it.
spinedoc wrote:doct3r dr3 wrote:
The Suns' overall rebound rate wasn't negatively affected by Frye's presence (TRR: 44.5-->45.1; TRB%: 49.9-->50.2). The offensive rebounding rate did go down (12.1-->11.6), in part because of the decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (27.0-->25.9). But the team's shooting efficiency increased so much (eFG%: 49.2-->53.8) it overwhelmed whatever effect that might have on scoring, and the Suns scored far more per 100 possessions (104.9-->113.1).
On defense, Suns opponents attempted about one more field goal attempt off defensive rebounds per 100 possessions with Frye on the floor (21.5-->22.7), and they converted these attempts at a higher eFG% (46.5-->53.5), but that resulted in a negligible overall impact on their overall scoring output, in points per 100 possessions (106.8-->107.0). Frye's overall impact on offense seems to dramatically outweigh his overall impact on defense.
First of all, stats can be a funny thing. They're easily manipulated to strengthen any argument. I'm not against facts, those are something else entirely. What you've shown here is no more than a strong correlation between two things, and that's if I'm conceding that. You haven't shown causality at all. Sure, you have answered a couple of my questions, not all, but you've also now raised even more with your new set of numbers. Basketball is not a lab experiment where you can hold variables at a constant, or manipulate them to prove a theory. Its way too dynamic for you to be definitive about cause and effect. What did the bench consist of that could have skewed Frye's on the court and off numbers? What were the starting players effects on Frye? Did the pg there differ from the one we have here, and does that matter? Also, I can't prove a negative and insert some traditional pf's numbers into that model if they didn't have one on the roster themselves. See, all you've really shown me is that Frye was better playing with that Suns team rather than without, which that I would concede.The approach of conceding defensive rebounds, and defending hard on the perimeter is an approach that the Miami Heat used successfully to win two titles.
I disagree with this. Yeah, they won two titles, but they also lost two titles because of the same thing. They were weak down low. Also, they just so happened to have the greatest player in the entire league on their team as well. Let's not think for a minute that Miami was great because of their stretch four offense. I'll take the Spurs approach any day. Duncan with Splitter and Diaw was the ticket, not Bosh and Haslem. One other thing I want to mention about the stretch four, you don't have to go all the way out to the three point line to create spacing. That mid-range game from your bigs is just as huge, and be close enough to contribute at the rim. The team that had this down the best was the Bad boys, with Laimbeer hitting that jumper. Then, they had Mahorn, Rodman, and Salley to do the dirty work down low. I believe we have that with Vuc now, all we need is his complement. The focus is wrong by Henny. What happened was he looked at his roster and noticed a lack of three point shooting, as a final scrambling touch he added over 12M with BG and Frye. And of course, brought back the hated stretch four for me in the process. I'm a huge Aaron Gordon fan now, lol.
spinedoc wrote:doct3r dr3 wrote:
The Suns' overall rebound rate wasn't negatively affected by Frye's presence (TRR: 44.5-->45.1; TRB%: 49.9-->50.2). The offensive rebounding rate did go down (12.1-->11.6), in part because of the decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (27.0-->25.9). But the team's shooting efficiency increased so much (eFG%: 49.2-->53.8) it overwhelmed whatever effect that might have on scoring, and the Suns scored far more per 100 possessions (104.9-->113.1).
On defense, Suns opponents attempted about one more field goal attempt off defensive rebounds per 100 possessions with Frye on the floor (21.5-->22.7), and they converted these attempts at a higher eFG% (46.5-->53.5), but that resulted in a negligible overall impact on their overall scoring output, in points per 100 possessions (106.8-->107.0). Frye's overall impact on offense seems to dramatically outweigh his overall impact on defense.
First of all, stats can be a funny thing. They're easily manipulated to strengthen any argument. I'm not against facts, those are something else entirely. What you've shown here is no more than a strong correlation between two things, and that's if I'm conceding that. You haven't shown causality at all. Sure, you have answered a couple of my questions, not all, but you've also now raised even more with your new set of numbers. Basketball is not a lab experiment where you can hold variables at a constant, or manipulate them to prove a theory. Its way too dynamic for you to be definitive about cause and effect. What did the bench consist of that could have skewed Frye's on the court and off numbers? What were the starting players effects on Frye? Did the pg there differ from the one we have here, and does that matter? Also, I can't prove a negative and insert some traditional pf's numbers into that model if they didn't have one on the roster themselves. See, all you've really shown me is that Frye was better playing with that Suns team rather than without, which that I would concede.
spinedoc wrote:The approach of conceding defensive rebounds, and defending hard on the perimeter is an approach that the Miami Heat used successfully to win two titles.
I disagree with this. Yeah, they won two titles, but they also lost two titles because of the same thing. They were weak down low. Also, they just so happened to have the greatest player in the entire league on their team as well. Let's not think for a minute that Miami was great because of their stretch four offense. I'll take the Spurs approach any day. Duncan with Splitter and Diaw was the ticket, not Bosh and Haslem. One other thing I want to mention about the stretch four, you don't have to go all the way out to the three point line to create spacing. That mid-range game from your bigs is just as huge, and be close enough to contribute at the rim. The team that had this down the best was the Bad boys, with Laimbeer hitting that jumper. Then, they had Mahorn, Rodman, and Salley to do the dirty work down low. I believe we have that with Vuc now, all we need is his complement. The focus is wrong by Henny. What happened was he looked at his roster and noticed a lack of three point shooting, as a final scrambling touch he added over 12M with BG and Frye. And of course, brought back the hated stretch four for me in the process. I'm a huge Aaron Gordon fan now, lol.
BadMofoPimp wrote:Reached for a 2nd round talent in Nicholson.
Melvinlocker wrote:
That is why he posted countless links and videos dude. The stats are simply supporting what our eyes are seeing...
...So far, all you have posted in this thread are feelings on why things won't work, but I haven't seen one stat, video breakdown or historical data to support your point. I don't see how you can criticize Dre's data when the best data you came up with was that the Spurs and the 90s Pistons have some players who shoot midrange jumpers so obviously the Magic should have signed some this offseason as well. Nearly everything else I saw was you pontificating about this and that. You certainly hold the right to disagree, but if you want posters to respect your opinion then you might want to bring some legit evidence to the table.
spinedoc wrote:Melvinlocker wrote:
That is why he posted countless links and videos dude. The stats are simply supporting what our eyes are seeing...
...So far, all you have posted in this thread are feelings on why things won't work, but I haven't seen one stat, video breakdown or historical data to support your point. I don't see how you can criticize Dre's data when the best data you came up with was that the Spurs and the 90s Pistons have some players who shoot midrange jumpers so obviously the Magic should have signed some this offseason as well. Nearly everything else I saw was you pontificating about this and that. You certainly hold the right to disagree, but if you want posters to respect your opinion then you might want to bring some legit evidence to the table.
Ah, I see what's going on here now. After perusing a couple other threads, I see there is a little advanced stat clique here and I've stepped on some toes with my reply. You honestly need videos and numbers in order to get my point? I'm just speaking conceptually and anecdotally based on several years experience of watching this sport. Do you need pictures in a novel in order to get the plot? I was trying to be nice in my disagreement actually about what Dre has posted. Yes, I appreciate his work in what he's put forth, but it doesn't convince me in the slightest. I'm not trying to convince you of anything, I was merely stating why I wasn't convinced. You don't get to send me on a research assignment. Honestly speaking now, dre is trying to put lipstick on a pig, and you are close behind putting the tutu on. You have to come up with some smokescreen numbers to convince anyone that Channing Frye is a good signing. The dude is soft as hell and has a nickname of Charmin.
Of course a three point shooter will spread the defense, I get that (there are many ways to get an open shot for others btw), but his rebounding and defense is matador like and the epitome of weakness. The guy busted in NY, got traded, then rotted on the bench in Portland. So, the Suns find a niche for him, over achieved, and over paid him on his last contract. Now, we step in and give him yet another undeserving raise on top of his last, at 31 and an enlarged heart I may add. The dude is super frustrating as a player, and you're going to have a hell of a time calming the board down after each game. The highest paid player on this team, and his only contribution will be he can mentor the youngsters, because he has a huge heart both literally and figuratively. There weren't any numbers in there, so I hope you understood what it is I've said. I don't feel its necessary either to put up a litany of youtube videos of the guy getting posterised either. Anyone watching the game long enough should already be well aware of this fact. Sorry for the rant, but I didn't appreciate your condescending remarks.
spinedoc wrote:I really appreciate that Melvin, and I'm sorry for obviously misjudging you. We just talk past each other with these stats. I don't think they are the end all of an argument like some do. Take eFG% for example, it takes into account threes made vs two point shots, but not if they are bad shots. Is the offense out of position? Are we jacking them up early in the shot clock?, are we taking too many threes vs twos?, etc. For me there are just too many variables to post a set of numbers and then just drop the mike. I'll try not to be a wet blanket I my way out of this discussion though. What I said earlier about Vuc being our Laimbeer I meant. Maybe, we already have our Mahorn, KOQ, our Rodman, AG, and our Salley, Frye, already. Lets see what develops going forward, because that's all we really have at this point, development. And, after thinking about it a bit more, our stretch four is at least different from SVG's stretch offense. He seemed to think the four meant four guys standing at the arc jacking up shots, here it looks like we just have the four position able to hit the three pointer. So, I'll give it a little time to see what happens. I hope we don't lean on it like a crutch however.
Dre, no knock on you man. Keep posting this stuff, it obviously is discussion worthy, lol. Later.
Howard Mass wrote:Congratulations to the RealGM User of The Week doct3r dr3!
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=1337313
This post is outstanding and it won you this week's award.
You definitely earned this.