Predict number of wins after 28 games

purpleswordfish · Post #21 » by **purpleswordfish** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:15 pm

I have the Magic as a 25 win team this year. If they maintain that pace through 28 games, that would put them at 8 wins, 9 if you round up. I'll say 8-20.

zuppafly · Post #22 » by **zuppafly** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:23 pm

purpleswordfish wrote:I have the Magic as a 25 win team this year. If they maintain that pace through 28 games, that would put them at 8 wins, 9 if you round up. I'll say 8-20.

I'm going for the same overall, but this start is brutal with the road games. So I think 5-7 is the safe bet.

drsd · Post #23 » by **drsd** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:26 pm

A nice Poisson distribution is forming around 11-13. That means that on average, Orlando fans see the team as above average. Nice!

Also, the 2 st dev. vote at 17-21 really catches the eye. That is a fan that sees this Magic team as a 60+ win squad. Very nice!!!!

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Optimus_Steel · Post #24 » by **Optimus_Steel** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 1:32 pm

I think 12-16 to start off sounds realistic. This team wont be historically bad on the road like they were last year. And we will be .500 at home or higher.

OrlDave · Post #25 » by **OrlDave** » Fri Oct 24, 2014 2:38 pm

So um.. should we redo this since Vic is out for the next couple months?

tooler · Post #26 » by **tooler** » Thu Nov 6, 2014 4:09 am

Well that's one. And it came on the road too. Stat of the night, courtesy of OPP:

The [Chicago] loss is Orlando's 51st in its last 55 road contests, dating to the end of the 2012/13 season.

Now 5 wins out of 56. My goodness, that's bad.

tooler · Post #27 » by **tooler** » Sat Nov 8, 2014 6:37 am

That's two.

As fun as these last two games have been, don't get ahead of yourselves. The next 5 of 6 are on the road, with 3 road games against Eastern Conference playoff teams and two back-to-backs with the second game on the road.

If they can swing another 2-4 stretch it would be very impressive, considering the context. Their best shot is at Brooklyn this Sunday and Milwaukee at home.

drsd · Post #28 » by **drsd** » Sat Nov 8, 2014 3:03 pm

Orlando is now on pace for 9 wins in 28 games.

tooler · Post #29 » by **tooler** » Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:14 am

That's three. The Magic now have two road wins in the first 9 games. Last season, it took them 22 games to reach that mark, and they finished with 4.

tooler · Post #30 » by **tooler** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:27 am

Cross-posted for posterity. Isn't it nice not to have to worry about draft position? Just go out and play, then see what happens.

Up next: @Washington, @Detroit, and home for the Clippers. A surprise two out of three would be fantastic.

Orlwillbeback · Post #31 » by **Orlwillbeback** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:06 am

wooo moar wins! gimme MORE!

drsd · Post #32 » by **drsd** » Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:05 am

Orlwillbeback wrote:wooo moar wins! gimme MORE!

The Magic is on pace for 11 wins in the first 28. That would be incredible! To win 40% of games in the hardest part of ht schedule, soon, we fans really need to start to contemplate a playoff run.

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tooler · Post #33 » by **tooler** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 3:23 am

Third road win in 12 games. This tank's all out of gas.

NEM · Post #34 » by **NEM** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 3:30 am

tooler wrote:Third road win in 12 games. This tank's all out of gas.

3-5 on the road. Considering how we fared away from home last year, that's a tremendous improvement

Optimus_Steel · Post #35 » by **Optimus_Steel** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 3:37 am

drsd wrote:
Orlwillbeback wrote:wooo moar wins! gimme MORE!

The Magic is on pace for 11 wins in the first 28. That would be incredible! To win 40% of games in the hardest part of ht schedule, soon, we fans really need to start to contemplate a playoff run.

..

I predicted 12-16 and thats right online with that.

Orlwillbeback · Post #36 » by **Orlwillbeback** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:21 am

PLAYOFFS

RookieStar · Post #37 » by **RookieStar** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:28 am

Orlwillbeback wrote:PLAYOFFS

psssht! the CHIP baby!!!

drsd · Post #38 » by **drsd** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:58 am

Optimus_Steel wrote:I predicted 12-16 and thats right online with that.

With the Detroit win, given rounding, Orlando is now on pace for an amazing 12 wins.

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Nyce_1 · Post #39 » by **Nyce_1** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:18 pm

Last year, we were 4-8 after 12 games; this year is 5-7.

tooler · Post #40 » by **tooler** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:28 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:Last year, we were 4-8 after 12 games; this year is 5-7.

Key difference: that was 4 wins at home! Didn't win the first road game until 14 games into the season.

I see we did pull out one win on the 6-game West road trip. I think we can win at least 2 this time.

Number of wins after 28 games