Analytic preview gives optimistic outcome for Magic

Orlwillbeback · Post #1 » by **Orlwillbeback** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:11 pm

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

That is, if you think 32 wins is optimisitc for us, which I think it is.

rcklsscognition · Post #2 » by **rcklsscognition** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:22 pm

Orlwillbeback wrote:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

That is, if you think 32 wins is optimisitc for us, which I think it is.

I predicted 32 to 39 I think, likely we end up around 34.

Nemesis21 · Post #3 » by **Nemesis21** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:25 pm

I was thinking a record of 35-47 this season, prior to Oladipo missing the first month. Now I'm thinking 28-54.

Orlwillbeback · Post #4 » by **Orlwillbeback** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:27 pm

Nemesis21 wrote:I was thinking a record of 35-47 this season, prior to Oladipo missing the first month. Now I'm thinking 28-54.

I doubt oladipo will make a difference of 7 wins if he misses 15-17 games.

OrlandO · Post #5 » by **OrlandO** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:49 pm

rcklsscognition wrote:
Orlwillbeback wrote:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nba-preview-the-sixers-are-going-nowhere-fast/

That is, if you think 32 wins is optimisitc for us, which I think it is.

I predicted 32 to 39 I think, likely we end up around 34.

I was thinking around the same (35) as long as dipo/frye don't miss much time and stay healthy when they come back.

OrlandO · Post #6 » by **OrlandO** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:55 pm

I would say 32 is optimistic compared to what all the analysts/media are saying... I don't think I've seen one major sports news outlet say we'll win more than 30. I actually think there's a good chance we'll be one of the teams on the outside of the eastern playoff race looking in, and that's usually around 35 wins. Kind of like the Suns last year... not expected to win much, but surprised everyone. We need dipo and frye back sooner rather than later though.

Post #7 » by **eyriq** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:25 am

Great article. Love that website. Would be very happy with 32 wins, which is one lower than I'm guessing.

drsd · Post #8 » by **drsd** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:49 am

OrlandO wrote:I would say 32 is optimistic compared to what all the analysts/media are saying... I don't think I've seen one major sports news outlet say we'll win more than 30. I actually think there's a good chance we'll be one of the teams on the outside of the eastern playoff race looking in, and that's usually around 35 wins. Kind of like the Suns last year... not expected to win much, but surprised everyone. We need dipo and frye back sooner rather than later though.

Two of five media type at the O-Sen have 30+ wins, with a third at 30.

O-Sen LINK

..

OrlandO · Post #9 » by **OrlandO** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:05 am

drsd wrote:
OrlandO wrote:I would say 32 is optimistic compared to what all the analysts/media are saying... I don't think I've seen one major sports news outlet say we'll win more than 30. I actually think there's a good chance we'll be one of the teams on the outside of the eastern playoff race looking in, and that's usually around 35 wins. Kind of like the Suns last year... not expected to win much, but surprised everyone. We need dipo and frye back sooner rather than later though.

Two of five media type at the O-Sen have 30+ wins, with a third at 30.

O-Sen LINK

..

Good to see the hometown paper have some optimism, but I guess I'm thinking more of the national media. I think ESPN has us at 26 wins, CBS has us at 25 wins, NBC less than 28.5 and there was another major outlet that I can't remember that had us around 27-28. And we're typically in the bottom 4 for the various power rankings out there. That being said, I haven't checked very many so maybe I'm missing some of the more generous projections. Hope we make the ones I mentioned look bad though.

drsd · Post #10 » by **drsd** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:21 am

OrlandO wrote:Good to see the hometown paper have some optimism, but I guess I'm thinking more of the national media. I think ESPN has us at 26 wins, CBS has us at 25 wins, NBC less than 28.5 and there was another major outlet that I can't remember that had us around 27-28. And we're typically in the bottom 4 for the various power rankings out there. That being said, I haven't checked very many so maybe I'm missing some of the more generous projections. Hope we make the ones I mentioned look bad though.

At this point I would be fairly surprised if the Magic were not either below 28 wins or above 35. It just feels like this team is a lot better or a lot worse than we think. I move away from my early predictions of ~30 wins.

If after 28 games the Magic is anywhere near a 10-game win line, I think the team will compete for a playoff slot. But it could get really ugly with a 6-7 win total. Hopelessness might ensue from that point.

Game #1 is only 2 1/2 days away: Orlando gets to get drubbed by the healthy Pelicans (who have a great deal to prove).

..

MellowRose · Post #11 » by **MellowRose** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:14 am

drsd wrote:
OrlandO wrote:Good to see the hometown paper have some optimism, but I guess I'm thinking more of the national media. I think ESPN has us at 26 wins, CBS has us at 25 wins, NBC less than 28.5 and there was another major outlet that I can't remember that had us around 27-28. And we're typically in the bottom 4 for the various power rankings out there. That being said, I haven't checked very many so maybe I'm missing some of the more generous projections. Hope we make the ones I mentioned look bad though.

At this point I would be fairly surprised if the Magic were not either below 28 wins or above 35. It just feels like this team is a lot better or a lot worse than we think. I move away from my early predictions of ~30 wins.

If after 28 games the Magic is anywhere near a 10-game win line, I think the team will compete for a playoff slot. But it could get really ugly with a 6-7 win total. Hopelessness might ensue from that point.

Game #1 is only 2 1/2 days away: Orlando gets to get drubbed by the healthy Pelicans (who have a great deal to prove).

Game is today.

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KingRobb02 · Post #12 » by **KingRobb02** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:54 pm

Fivethirtyeight is really terrible with their sports coverage.

tiderulz · Post #13 » by **tiderulz** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:10 pm

OrlandO wrote:I would say 32 is optimistic compared to what all the analysts/media are saying... I don't think I've seen one major sports news outlet say we'll win more than 30. I actually think there's a good chance we'll be one of the teams on the outside of the eastern playoff race looking in, and that's usually around 35 wins. Kind of like the Suns last year... not expected to win much, but surprised everyone. We need dipo and frye back sooner rather than later though.

when all else fails, look to vegas. There is a reason the house always wins. Analysts can be swayed and are wrong a lot.

FloridaHoosier · Post #14 » by **FloridaHoosier** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:20 pm

My original prediction, before Dipo got hurt the 2nd time, :banghead:

, was 35. I'm sticking to it just because I'm trying to send positive energy their way. GO MAGIC!

OrlandO · Post #15 » by **OrlandO** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:48 pm

BS report has us under 27 wins

in-limbo · Post #16 » by **in-limbo** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:56 pm

If BS says 27, I'm saying 37 because I think he's at least 10 games worth of stupid.

flying_mollusk · Post #17 » by **flying_mollusk** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:12 pm

Fivethirtyeight is pretty awesome. Provides great statistical based predictions, as opposed to personal opinions. I'd put a lot of credence in this. 32 wins would be awesome. That means we are definitely a playoff contender next year.

MagicFan101 · Post #18 » by **MagicFan101** » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:11 pm

This is a great link. Thank you.

Another thought here is that on average over the past few years, 32 wins would place Orlando better than about 8 teams in the league.

Can we name 8 teams Orlando is surely better than? The Bucks and 76ers... anymore? The T-Wolves have a lot of exciting young talent, but probably won't be able to translate that talent to wins this year. The Kings are hard to get a read on. Cousins is a beast but they have a lot of issues.

I would toss Orlando in the mix with Boston and Utah. No ordering of these three teams would surprise me.

With Nash and Gasol out, another Kobe injury could doom the Lakers.

So optimistically, these are 7 teams I could see Orlando out performing off the top of my head. Hence I think this projection is a nice blend of optimism and reality.