Tobias Harris Article

[KingRobb02]

link
Interesting critical article about Tobias Harris's value to the team and whether or not he would be a good player to invest in. Some people here might be offended by the material, but I learned some stuff that I never felt like looking up.

[Jiwol]

OMG, you've just started a s***storm.

[KingRobb02]

Figured some people would at least be happy we're getting national attention.

[tiderulz]

shrug, some people have their opinion.

[tooler]

However, 67.1 percent of Harris’ rebounds are uncontested, per SportVU. Meaning he is the only one with a legit chance at the board. By comparison, 75.0 percent of Lance Stephenson’s rebounds were uncontested last season. Stephenson is widely regarded as the league’s biggest rebound thief.

What is he trying to say here? I'm not following this paragraph.

[MellowRose]

Good article. Thanks for posting. I have the same sentiments as the author, and also think that Tobias is a great trade chip.

[Skin]

I think he is trying to be a recognizable writer for ESPN and needs thought-provoking material, so he tried to support a controversial point by putting stats behind it.

Few things I would argue:

In the box score, Harris looks like an excellent rebounder for a small forward. Averaging 8.2 rebounds per game is superb, especially when you have a teammate in Nikola Vucevic whose averaging 11.9 rebounds per game. However, 67.1 percent of Harris’ rebounds are uncontested, per SportVU. Meaning he is the only one with a legit chance at the board.

This idea would suggest that Harris is more lucky than good. That he just so happens to be the recipient of the ball falling into his laps. I'd buy the luck card if Harris was an inconsistent rebounder, but he is far from inconsistent. He's held his rebounding numbers strong on a nightly and yearly basis.

I also think it’s hard to build a legit offensive scheme around Harris because of how much isolation basketball he plays. This is not a total knock on him. He can manhandle players in the post and use his strength. He can take guys off the dribble. Being able to create your own offense is a valuable skill to have.

But for someone who plays 35.7 minutes per game, averaging 1.7 assists per game can hurt a team’s flow offensively. If you’re Harris and your assist percentage (8.5 percent) is far below the league average for a small forward, you have to be really good at something else. Others guys who are putting up similar assist numbers in the same type of minutes are Anthony Davis, Serge Ibaka, Zach Randolph, Tyson Chandler, DeAndre Jordan, and Derrick Favors. Besides Favors, all of those players are great or elite at something (and legit big men).

Remember the days when we were begging for a go-to guy? Harris is finally showing the initiative and the capability and now he's being dogged for it. Sorry, I'm not buying the sob story. We need Harris to initiate offense, especially when he's having a career year across the board while doing it. Could we see more ball movement? Sure, but not to the point where he becomes a passive player. We don't need him to be a point forward.

It’s also staggering to see how much more efficient Victor Oladipo is when Harris is off the floor. At the moment, it’s hard to pinpoint a reason why Oladipo’s True Shooting percentage jumps from .495 percent when Harris is on the floor to .583 percent when he’s off, per NBAwowy

This is a point I would consider dwelling more on. Does this happen to everyone else or just Oladipo?

Harris’ per game numbers are good, but who is he making better? Can he succeed on a winning team when he isn’t the No. 1 option? If not, what else is he going to do to positively impact the game? He’s not a great shooter, rebounder, passer, or defender. He has no real position. These are questions the Magic front office must ask themselves moving forward.

If you’re not going to be a superstar, which Harris isn’t, you have to be really good at something. You can’t be decent at a bunch of different things and expect to be an integral part of a winner. Teams stay bad for keeping those type of guys around. Good teams build around a player and find other players with certain attributes who mesh together.

I would agree with this if Harris was our #1 option, but at the peak of where this team will be when/if we are contenders, I don't see Harris being our #1 option, so there's not a huge reason to fret. Just don't overpay him and raise those expectations. If he demands it, you shop around to make sure you're making the best move for the team. Seems like Henny is already down that path too.

[MagicFan101]

I have been saying all of this for about a year now. I have been using the phrase "fluff player" in the same way this author uses "numbers guy".

If you’re not going to be a superstar, which Harris isn’t, you have to be really good at something. You can’t be decent at a bunch of different things and expect to be an integral part of a winner. Teams stay bad for keeping those type of guys around. Good teams build around a player and find other players with certain attributes who mesh together.

I feel like this author owes me money...

[Orlwillbeback]

alot of subjectivity going into this article:

The offense is also better so far this season without Harris. The Magic are 2.9 points per 100 possessions better on offense when Harris is off the floor, per NBA.com.

harris plays 35mpg for a team that is 26th in offensive efficiency. Everyone is going to struggle offensively for this team. Harris plays against startinjg defenses and starting offenses, you can quantify that. They said the same thing about durant when he was a young player too, that his team was better with him off of the court. Does that mean they should have let him go? **** no. we learned the hard way with channing frye that you cannot go entirely by these types of ratings once you realize theyre bull most of the time once you actually watch the games.

It’s also staggering to see how much more efficient Victor Oladipo is when Harris is off the floor. At the moment, it’s hard to pinpoint a reason why Oladipo’s True Shooting percentage jumps from .495 percent when Harris is on the floor to .583 percent when he’s off, per NBAwowy.

Who's fault is that? Oladipo needs to find his way in the offense not dominate it. Give me a reason why harris stifles oladipo's production other than this bull answer he gave:

My guess would be the ball swings around the perimeter much more because there are less isos, meaning Oladipo is not only getting open shots, but he’s also attacking closeouts and getting to the rim — probably his biggest strength as a young player right now.

Harris doesnt really iso that much anyway. This guy clearly doesnt know what hes talking about because he is just going off of numbers and not actually watching the games. Harris gets most of his points within the flow of his offense and if we are isoing him too much then that's vaughn's fault for calling it. Vaughn calls the same play for vooch but no one is bitching about it.

The Magic need to do everything they can to put Oladipo in situations to succeed and it would appear they’re doing that more often when Harris is on the bench.

why is maximizing oladipo's production a priority for this team? because we took him with the second pick? that's a terrible reason. Currently the magic are slated to finish with an improved record from last season and harris and vooch are leading the way. If we let Harris walk in the offseason and got worse as a team but Oladipo averaged 25 ppg would it be a success? that's what this guy is insinuating.

However, 67.1 percent of Harris’ rebounds are uncontested, per SportVU. Meaning he is the only one with a legit chance at the board.

what does this even prove? getting boards is a talent, period. Vooch pads his rebounding stats when he just knocks the ball off the backboard on the offensive end but no one is complaining about him being a "rebound thief"

[eyriq]

I did not write this. Though I agree with it 100%.

Or is he just a guy...

Yes, yes he is.

Edit: BTW, I think the rebounding bit means that he snatches rebounds away from teammates. A rebound is "contested" when opposing players contest a rebound.

[tooler]

Rebounds are funny things but I'm not sure who he'd be stealing them from. Vucevic is elite as always, Frye hasn't changed from his career numbers, and Oladipo and Payton are well above average for their position.

The simple answer (until I see otherwise) is that he's just a good rebounder.

[Def Swami]

FWIW, Zach Lowe referred to Tobias Harris as a "numbers guy" too in his last podcast. Again, it'll all come down to the $$$ for determining if we keep Harris or not. He didn't mis-characterize Harris's game (besides the iso part; not sure we've run much for him this year).

[tiderulz]

I have been saying all of this for about a year now. I have been using the phrase "fluff player" in the same way this author uses "numbers guy".

If you’re not going to be a superstar, which Harris isn’t, you have to be really good at something. You can’t be decent at a bunch of different things and expect to be an integral part of a winner. Teams stay bad for keeping those type of guys around. Good teams build around a player and find other players with certain attributes who mesh together.

I feel like this author owes me money...

I believe Lamar Odom was decent at a bunch of different things. Tayshaun Prince, Robert Horry (Houston days), Boris Diaw.

And i would debate that Harris is really good at rebounding and scoring in the low post.

[407Junkie]

He's only saying what the blind lovers of Harris can't see. Hennigan could see it that's why he wouldn't budge of his set number with no negotiating. Most likely he will be traded before February because the gm will get something for him instead of letting him leave for nothing.

[MagicFan101]

I have been saying all of this for about a year now. I have been using the phrase "fluff player" in the same way this author uses "numbers guy".

If you’re not going to be a superstar, which Harris isn’t, you have to be really good at something. You can’t be decent at a bunch of different things and expect to be an integral part of a winner. Teams stay bad for keeping those type of guys around. Good teams build around a player and find other players with certain attributes who mesh together.

I feel like this author owes me money...

I believe Lamar Odom was decent at a bunch of different things. Tayshaun Prince, Robert Horry (Houston days), Boris Diaw.

And i would debate that Harris is really good at rebounding and scoring in the low post.

You're right and all of those guys were valuable players for many years in the league.

But were any of them ever so valuable that fans cried out in fear of their franchise being ****ed should that player be lost to free agency?

[tiderulz]

I have been saying all of this for about a year now. I have been using the phrase "fluff player" in the same way this author uses "numbers guy".



I feel like this author owes me money...

I believe Lamar Odom was decent at a bunch of different things. Tayshaun Prince, Robert Horry (Houston days), Boris Diaw.

And i would debate that Harris is really good at rebounding and scoring in the low post.

You're right and all of those guys were valuable players for many years in the league.

But were any of them ever so valuable that fans cried out in fear of their franchise being ****ed should that player be lost to free agency?

i havent heard anyone on here say the franchise will be ****ed if he left. I have heard people say it would be a mistake, but not that we would be ****ed. You seem to be the only one thinking that people are saying that

[MagicFan101]

i havent heard anyone on here say the franchise will be ****ed if he left. I have heard people say it would be a mistake, but not that we would be ****ed. You seem to be the only one thinking that people are saying that

Go to page 45 of the Speculation thread (about half way down).

[Bensational]

i think the uncontested rebounding thing is suggestive that either:

- Harris just has a freakish knack for knowing where the ball is going to be
- Somebody else is doing the boxing out and Harris is getting the rebounds

I'd say it's a case of both. I've noticed that Frye will often just dig down on his heels and look to box his guy out without making any real attempt at getting the rebound, and often Vuc, Harris, Dipo or Payton are down there to collect the rebound.

Vuc's rebounding numbers were similar last year. in comparison to other league leading rebounding C's, he had a much higher rate of grabbing uncontested rebounds. i couldn't figure out what that meant last year, but my hunch is that BBD/Harris/O'Quinn were doing the box out work and he was collecting the boards.

[MagicFan32]

look at the system we play, then ask yourselves how many assists could tobes REALLY average per game? everything is pick and roll or dump to vooch, or bail outs.

it seems silly to me that people here want to give up our only scoring threat in 1 on 1 situations. maybe tobes game could evolve more IF this team had a real coach, and an offensive system

[MagicHolland]

Let me start of by saying I like Tobias and I really want us to retain him. Now onto the article, I do believe that the reason we have not extended him yet is for this very reason. Tobias has very good and effective numbers, but he needs to make others around him better and our team overall by winning games. To me that's the key to us investing in him long term.

As for the rebounds, yes you can tell by just watching the games that he gets alot of uncontested rebounds. Is that wrong though? It could also mean our bigs box out well or he just has a knack for knowing where the ball will end up. The good thing about Tobias' uncontested rebounds is that he pushes the tempo off of those rebounds, put the defense on their heels. I like that!

It's a bit too easy to say Oladipo's numbers are lower because of Tobias but at times I can see our offense come to a halt with some of our ISO's. The same goes for all other players.

This Golden State game really is where our team should be offensively and it showed in Tobias' assist numbers. If we can keep that up, Tobias will get his money.