Elfrid Payton vs Rajon Rondo

[Bensational]

The metric is called Wins Produced at Box Score Geeks. They published the complicated formula but of course they want you to buy their book to understand the reasoning behind it.

What it is, is a huge controversy. Thousands of words have been written on it. It's done by young economics geeks so there are tons of numbers, philosophy, crusading, us-against-them mindset, and Internet dick-swinging. I think we can all agree that ESPN and their analysts have their motives and their own proprietary formulas, but that doesn't necessarily mean these guys are "correct" either.

thanks for the rundown. every once in a while i get inexplicably excited about numbers, dive into them until my head hurts, and then vow that it's just not worth the headache and walk away. until inspiration hits me again.

right now, i'm totally uninspired to look too deep into these numbers. watching the games, i'm seeing Elf have a tremendous impact offensively and defensively. not all the time, but definitely in spurts, and sometimes in crucial spurts.

i'd be interested in seeing some numbers on how Elf impacts the efficiency of other players when he's on the court. feels like they make more shots when he's in.

[tooler]

I've been excited about the numbers. Maybe more like amused at this point. It's a little less interesting now that certain numbers have settled down. Plus there aren't many of them where I'm head-over-heels excited. The team and players aren't necessarily blowing anyone away.

I'll probably settle down over the holidays. Soon I'd like to kick back and enjoy the games instead of worrying about what it all means for the future of the franchise. Easier said than done.

BTW, Elfrid's impact offensively seems to be all over the place in the noise. A couple weeks ago he gave the team a +3 ORtg when he was on the court. Suddenly it's -0.5. So who knows, especially with Oladipo running point so much. The defensive impact has remained consistent for a while now.

[KingRobb02]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.

i'm not sure how wins produced is calculated, is it influenced by the players around them?

Payton is a rookie on a team with several players jostling to be the leader.

Rondo spent his rookie season supporting Pierce, and most of his early years learning how to help 3 HOFers.

Kidd had Jim Jackson and Mashburn putting up near 50ppg combined. Nate had Dale Ellis, McDaniel and Chambers putting up 70ppg combined.

G.Payton had arguably the least amount of star help, and he's probably in the most comparable situation to Payton in terms of supporting talent.

What's Rubio and Rondo's WS this season? a fraction better than 0 - and these guys are supposed to be several years ahead of Payton in development. What's different? Their teams suck this year and they don't have HOFers and superstars making them look good.

No. Wins produced adds for good stuff like made shots, assists, rebounds and subtracts for shot attempts, turnovers and stuff like that.

Actually rapm is the stat that adjusts for teammates. I've expressed my issues with it here last year I think. A lot of over smoothing the numbers that makes them lose some value.

Elf has some potential with his non shooting attributes. But I definitely think some people go overboard with looking for comparisons. Right now, I'm just happy we have a guy on a rookie deal who could actually be good in 2 years.

[Bensational]

Elf has some potential with his non shooting attributes. But I definitely think some people go overboard with looking for comparisons. Right now, I'm just happy we have a guy on a rookie deal who could actually be good in 2 years.

In terms of rookie numbers, what Melvinlocker provided all seemed on par as a comparison. Kidd, Rondo, Rubio etc all put up very similar numbers, so I wouldn't say it's overboard when it's all you've got to work with. Thing is, we need to give it a few seasons before we can really start measuring him to the development of those players, so for now all we can say is that he's starting right about where they started. I think that's fair. It's no forgone conclusion that he'll become as good as they did/are.

[407Junkie]

You have people on here saying he shouldn't shoot in games like who Finals are we going to this year? I'm glad we got him but for him I think he was drafted by one of the worst teams for him to be on. We have one of the selfish looking out for themselves teams that's in the league(last in the league in assist). On top of that he's being coached by the mental midget that is Vaughn jerking his minutes around instead of letting him play thru his mistakes.

Payton would've been perfect on a team with veterans who could mask his shooting deficiencies at an early age and take advantage of his defense and passing abilities. We have youngster playing for a contract and black holing it, a dude trying to learn a position he sucks ass at for long periods of times, and older players who are trying to live out the glory years when they were young jacking up crazy shots. Add that all up and you have a kid trying to figure out the game for himself basically.

[tooler]

I appreciate the sentiment about the team in general, but I'm pretty happy with the number of shots Elfrid is taking. It's not like he's Moe Harkless out there. If the defense gives him the lane, he has no problem jacking up 15 shots.

Yes he's very hesitant on 3-pointers but he generally finds a higher-percentage play. I would think an offseason of practice would do more for his outside shot than merely "trying it out" 2-3 times more per game. I've never played at a high level so I don't really know.

[magicsanta]

Elf has some potential with his non shooting attributes. But I definitely think some people go overboard with looking for comparisons. Right now, I'm just happy we have a guy on a rookie deal who could actually be good in 2 years.

In terms of rookie numbers, what Melvinlocker provided all seemed on par as a comparison. Kidd, Rondo, Rubio etc all put up very similar numbers, so I wouldn't say it's overboard when it's all you've got to work with. Thing is, we need to give it a few seasons before we can really start measuring him to the development of those players, so for now all we can say is that he's starting right about where they started. I think that's fair. It's no forgone conclusion that he'll become as good as they did/are.

Exactly, that's what I've been saying since the OP. And also that the fact that his numbers are not stellar, doesn't mean that he doesn't have the potential to be quite good.

[Flannerz]

Stats are useless as they don't take into account his awesome hair

[tiderulz]

You have people on here saying he shouldn't shoot in games like who Finals are we going to this year? I'm glad we got him but for him I think he was drafted by one of the worst teams for him to be on. We have one of the selfish looking out for themselves teams that's in the league(last in the league in assist). On top of that he's being coached by the mental midget that is Vaughn jerking his minutes around instead of letting him play thru his mistakes.

Payton would've been perfect on a team with veterans who could mask his shooting deficiencies at an early age and take advantage of his defense and passing abilities. We have youngster playing for a contract and black holing it, a dude trying to learn a position he sucks ass at for long periods of times, and older players who are trying to live out the glory years when they were young jacking up crazy shots. Add that all up and you have a kid trying to figure out the game for himself basically.

who is this youngster playing for a contract and "black holing it"? if you are referring to Tobias, he is middle of the league in assists for SF's and above his career average.

[magicsanta]

Stats are useless as they don't take into account his awesome hair

How do you know about his hair? Nobody has seen it beneath all that garbage he uses on his head to distract opponents with that smell.

[cedric76]

EP is a decent 3pt shot away from being a beast

[MagicStarwipe]

If he becomes a good finisher in the paint and around the rim he'll already be a beast. A 3 point shot would be icing.

[Reverse_Angle]

I understand your point, but I don't think rookie stats are as predictive as we would like to believe. If I were to look for it, I could find A LOT of people who never reached anything close to Rondo's level yet shared Peyton's or Rondo's rookie season stats.

That being said, season is still in progress and I think Peyton will do better and better as time goes along.

[Viper1500]

EP is a decent 3pt shot away from being a beast

He needs to work on his FT and 5(or more) ft shot first.

[purpleswordfish]

My issue with Payton is that he can't shoot. Not from midrange, not from the free throw line, definitely not from deep. He's good at passing and tries real hard on defense, so that's good. But, stop with the Rondo, Gary Payton comparisons already. He's not even a starter in the league.

And rondo started how many games in his rookie season in a losing team? 25 out of 78!

Don't be such trolls, it makes all the sense in the world to look for references in similar players.

Great logic. If someone doesn't agree with you, they're a troll. Everyone needs to put the Elfrid Payton Kool-Aid down. He isn't ready to start, he can't shoot (47% from the FT line last time I checked), all he does is pass and defend.

[OrlDave]

My issue with Payton is that he can't shoot. Not from midrange, not from the free throw line, definitely not from deep. He's good at passing and tries real hard on defense, so that's good. But, stop with the Rondo, Gary Payton comparisons already. He's not even a starter in the league.

And rondo started how many games in his rookie season in a losing team? 25 out of 78!

Don't be such trolls, it makes all the sense in the world to look for references in similar players.

Great logic. If someone doesn't agree with you, they're a troll. Everyone needs to put the Elfrid Payton Kool-Aid down. He isn't ready to start, he can't shoot (47% from the FT line last time I checked), all he does is pass and defend.

I guess shooting is the only determining factor on who gets to start in the NBA? You already said he does everything else well, so it must be the case.

[tooler]

...all he does is pass and defend.

I'll put down the Kool-Aid if you stop oversimplifying his contributions down to this.

[magicsanta]

My issue with Payton is that he can't shoot. Not from midrange, not from the free throw line, definitely not from deep. He's good at passing and tries real hard on defense, so that's good. But, stop with the Rondo, Gary Payton comparisons already. He's not even a starter in the league.

And rondo started how many games in his rookie season in a losing team? 25 out of 78!

Don't be such trolls, it makes all the sense in the world to look for references in similar players.

Great logic. If someone doesn't agree with you, they're a troll. Everyone needs to put the Elfrid Payton Kool-Aid down. He isn't ready to start, he can't shoot (47% from the FT line last time I checked), all he does is pass and defend.

If your post made a little sense it wouldn't be trolling, but since it doesn't...

I adressed that in more detail in a previous post if you want the logic behind the one you quoted.

[majortom71]

If you notice his progression, he is not being blocked as much as he was at beginning of season. He probably is changing his shot selection and is becoming more quick near the basket.
He is also improving his finishing at the basket. I also noticed he is using floaters which are great and short range jumper which is what he needs.
He does not need to currently worry about a 3pt shot, that's for later.
He needs to work on his FT cause the way he gets into the paint, FTs would help his offense tremendously.
I'm happy with his progression.

[Optimus_Steel]

If you notice his progression, he is not being blocked as much as he was at beginning of season. He probably is changing his shot selection and is becoming more quick near the basket.
He is also improving his finishing at the basket. I also noticed he is using floaters which are great and short range jumper which is what he needs.
He does not need to currently worry about a 3pt shot, that's for later.
He needs to work on his FT cause the way he gets into the paint, FTs would help his offense tremendously.
I'm happy with his progression.

I truly believe he will be a star in time when he improves the jumper. His effect on both sides is undeniable. He is a winner.