Elfrid Payton vs Rajon Rondo

[magicsanta]

Rondo (see rookie year)
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4149/

vs

Payton
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/5321/

Rondo is such a particular player that it's particularly rare that their rookie years look so similar so far. For the last 30 days, Payton's look even slightly better. Obviously Rondo's don't predict Elfrid's numbres for years to come, but for anyone being slightly disappointed by his stats, this may cheer you up.

Also, in spite of the many mistakes, his effort is such, that makes you believe in him figuring things out.

PS: On top of vucevic and Harris, who are clearly already better than average. We have at least 4 guys with potential to be better than average in their respective positions: Oladipo, who is very likely to be too, if he's not already, Gordon, Payton, Fournier and I'm tempted to add O'Quinn as the 5th. I know this isn't news for anyone here, but what I mean to point out is that I don't think there's any team in the league that has the luxury of 6 players above average, and I don't think you could keep them all happy long term if you tanked and kept adding youngsters with potential in stead of developing by winning. So I hope we're all in the same page now, and finally developed our tankers in the forum into real fans.

[KingRobb02]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.

[magicsanta]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.

What are you talking about? Boston was 24/58 during Rondo's rookie season.

(EDIT: Also, it may not be reflected on stats, but I've seen the guy help turn around a few games with his hustle. And "wins produced" is a very relative "stat"...)

It's the natural comparison, it's so particular that comes to mind spontaneously. Denying any comparison as if there was no relation between players is as dumb as believing that similar numbers mean similar future. No extreme makes sense.

I get that you may be annoyed by so many comparisons, in my case, I hate purely speculative delusional trade threads, so I stay away from them. I'm fine with expressing your frustration about it, but you if you don't have a point it's just trolling.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

I can't wait for the Boston games. I wish Payton would start.

[tooler]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.

I went and looked at the WP48 numbers at your favorite site. I saw some interesting things.

Vuc is now down to "league average" whereas Tobias is above average / borderline star. But last season, the numbers were reversed! Contract situation, anyone? (Since shooting efficiency is such a big factor in this metric, I suspect Vuc will normalize when he stops rushing so many shots.)

Elfrid indeed has a long way to go. Rondo was already putting up so-called star numbers under that metric his first season. But don't forget Box Score Geeks reminded you that you can teach a guy to shoot. He already has a lot of extra factors he needs to become an above average player.

So hey, chin up.

[purpleswordfish]

My issue with Payton is that he can't shoot. Not from midrange, not from the free throw line, definitely not from deep. He's good at passing and tries real hard on defense, so that's good. But, stop with the Rondo, Gary Payton comparisons already. He's not even a starter in the league.

[tooler]

He does more than try hard on defense. He currently has the second highest DRPM for a point guard in the league, right above his buddy Rondo. (The scary thing is, Rondo is still bad at offense according to that RPM metric!)

Here is what I said earlier about Elfrid the last time this comparison was made:

It's almost reassuring that Elfrid knows exactly what he needs to work on this offseason. We already know he can pass, rebound, play defense, take clutch shots, run an offense, and get to the rim when called for. Those aren't going away.

What he can't do is put the ball in the basket. Practice time!

[Melvinlocker]

Here is where Elfrid stacks up compared to some players who fit his profile.

I tried to pick rookies who had a Reb% greater than 6%, AST% greater than 25% and a steal % above 2.5%. Here are the five rookies from the group who seem to fit Elfrid's profile the best:

Rondo, Elfrid: 20 yrs. old

J-Kidd, Rubio- 21 yrs. old

GP, McMillan- 22 yrs. old

Here is a link to their rookie season which can be sorted and compared. I encourage everyone to sort through the data themselves.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =mcmilna01

Reasons for optimism:

-Elfrid did not have the worst 3pt. % ranking him at third.
-Elfrid has the highest usage rate of the group, despite being the youngest player.
-He shares the same birthday as Rondo and they were the same age when they entered the league.
-His 3pt attempt rate ranked ranked him 3rd in the group.
-He ranked in the middle of the pack in most categories (middle of the pack defined as anywhere from 2-5, depends on the statistical spread).

Things that need to improve:

Here we see Elfrid measures pretty well against the group except for 2p% and FT%. He ranked 2nd to last and last in these categories. This explains why his true shooting % has been so awful to this point. If he wants to continue to be ranked among guards like these, he will need to improve substantially in one (ideally both) aspects in order to justify these comparisons. He had the worst oRTG and the worst PER in the group.

It appears that a TS% of 47% is the magic number for him to reach by the end of the season (although it is important to keep in mind he was tied for youngest in the group). I'll be monitoring his progress to see how he develops.

[magicsanta]

My issue with Payton is that he can't shoot. Not from midrange, not from the free throw line, definitely not from deep. He's good at passing and tries real hard on defense, so that's good. But, stop with the Rondo, Gary Payton comparisons already. He's not even a starter in the league.

And rondo started how many games in his rookie season in a losing team? 25 out of 78!

Don't be such trolls, it makes all the sense in the world to look for references in similar players.

[magicsanta]

Here is where Elfrid stacks up compared to some players who fit his profile.

I tried to pick rookies who had a Reb% greater than 6%, AST% greater than 25% and a steal % above 2.5%. Here are the five rookies from the group who seem to fit Elfrid's profile the best:

Rondo, Elfrid: 20 yrs. old

J-Kidd, Rubio- 21 yrs. old

GP, McMillan- 22 yrs. old

Here is a link to their rookie season which can be sorted and compared. I encourage everyone to sort through the data themselves.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =mcmilna01

Reasons for optimism:

-Elfrid did not have the worst 3pt. % ranking him at third.
-Elfrid has the highest usage rate of the group, despite being the youngest player.
-He shares the same birthday as Rondo and they were the same age when they entered the league.
-His 3pt attempt rate ranked ranked him 3rd in the group.
-He ranked in the middle of the pack in most categories (middle of the pack defined as anywhere from 2-5, depends on the statistical spread).

Things that need to improve:

Here we see Elfrid measures pretty well against the group except for 2p% and FT%. He ranked 2nd to last and last in these categories. This explains why his true shooting % has been so awful to this point. If he wants to continue to be ranked among guards like these, he will need to improve substantially in one (ideally both) aspects in order to justify these comparisons. He had the worst oRTG and the worst PER in the group.

It appears that a TS% of 47% is the magic number for him to reach by the end of the season (although it is important to keep in mind he was tied for youngest in the group). I'll be monitoring his progress to see how he develops.

Thanks for the data

[magicsanta]

Their Per 36min look amazingly similar.

[Orlwillbeback]

Elf needs to make more shots.

[MagicStarwipe]

Numbers are cool, but damn man, doesn't anyone just watch the games anymore?

[jgosche]

Elf needs to make more shots.

Really? I get kind of nervous whenever he shoots. I think he'll get there but for now, when he already is shooting at such a bad percentage, I don't think its a good idea for him to force more up.

[Bensational]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.

i'm not sure how wins produced is calculated, is it influenced by the players around them?

Payton is a rookie on a team with several players jostling to be the leader.

Rondo spent his rookie season supporting Pierce, and most of his early years learning how to help 3 HOFers.

Kidd had Jim Jackson and Mashburn putting up near 50ppg combined. Nate had Dale Ellis, McDaniel and Chambers putting up 70ppg combined.

G.Payton had arguably the least amount of star help, and he's probably in the most comparable situation to Payton in terms of supporting talent.

What's Rubio and Rondo's WS this season? a fraction better than 0 - and these guys are supposed to be several years ahead of Payton in development. What's different? Their teams suck this year and they don't have HOFers and superstars making them look good.

[Bensational]

Elf needs to make more shots.

Really? I get kind of nervous whenever he shoots. I think he'll get there but for now, when he already is shooting at such a bad percentage, I don't think its a good idea for him to force more up.

it's the only way he'll figure it out. he went from not taking any scoring chances in his first couple of games to introducing a eurostep and a nice close range jumper in less than 10 games, which lead to a 16 point outing. if he doesn't push himself, then he's not going to develop.

i'll take the losses if he's trying to figure stuff out. i'd be more annoyed if the losses came with Willie Green being the one taking those chances.

[Melvinlocker]

Numbers are cool, but damn man, doesn't anyone just watch the games anymore?

*Speaking for me here*

Numbers out of context are a dangerous thing for sure.

My philosophy is to understand the game first through film, second through seeing the games in real time and third through statistics that are:

1.well researched,
2. relevant to the topic at hand,
3. and are contextualized.

For instance, there are other filters that I could have chosen that would have painted Elfrid in a more positive light. Conversely, there were other data sets that would have painted him negatively. I tried to find a happy medium that would paint an accurate picture of where he stands as far as his statical impact is concerned. Also, I take into account what i have seen with my eyes to make sure i'm not overrating or underrating certain aspects of his game.

Personally, I think my method is pretty solid, but there is always room to improve!

[Orlwillbeback]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.

According to what metric? In ewa he is negative but for espn's real plus minus wins above replacement he leads the team.

[tooler]

According to what metric? In ewa he is negative but for espn's real plus minus wins above replacement he leads the team.

FWIW he's now third and WAR depends a lot on time/games played so it was never a good metric to begin with. They only seem to update that every couple of weeks. His DRPM stayed consistent but his ORPM went even lower, so all the numbers are probably still in the noise at this point of the season.

i'm not sure how wins produced is calculated, is it influenced by the players around them?

The metric is called Wins Produced at Box Score Geeks. They published the complicated formula but of course they want you to buy their book to understand the reasoning behind it.

What it is, is a huge controversy. Thousands of words have been written on it. It's done by young economics geeks so there are tons of numbers, philosophy, crusading, us-against-them mindset, and Internet dick-swinging. I think we can all agree that ESPN and their analysts have their motives and their own proprietary formulas, but that doesn't necessarily mean these guys are "correct" either.

I spent some time today looking it over and reading the criticism. Some of the spot-checking I did with the numbers seems reasonable. If you have Anthony Davis at number one this year, you can make an argument your metric is sound. But like PER, it seems to overvalue low-minutes efficiency and doesn't tell you much about how a player scales with more minutes. It also doesn't seem very consistent year to year. For example, Tobias and Vucevic basically switched places this year in terms of Wins Produced per 48 Minutes. (TB up and Nik down.) But that doesn't match the eye test or any of the traditional advanced metrics. Tobias has been good but Vuc didn't suddenly turn into an average center.

It could be the small sample size for the short season. But then you look at a player with a long career and the numbers sometimes swing between "worse than replacement" to "all-star level". How can anyone reasonably make a decision on players with a system like that?

It's really weird but I suppose it's alright as far as metrics go. They all have pros and cons. For this one, I think like a lot of niche science it attracts a dedicated group of true believers. KingRobb likes it because no Magic players rank very highly in it. (Aaron Gordon does, especially compared to other rookies, but he has a very small sample size.)

[shadrock]

The easy way to end these comparisons is to look at wins produced and realize that Elf is a negative while most of the guys we compare him to are major positives.