Oladipo's true ceiling

[MoMM]

Sprewell is a nice comparison, but let's hope he doesn't try to kill JB or the next coach.

[Neon1]

Out of curiosity, do you think Oladipo will be the better player, between Harris and him, in about 2 years or so?

Depends on what teams both players are on in two years. They are the same age (Dipo being a couple months older) and Tobias only has about 1000 minutes more career NBA playing time.

I do know Dipo will have more behind the scenes support on this team as long as Hennigan is here due to his (Henny) future being somewhat tied to Oladipo. Tobias probably has more chance to make it as an All Star if he is allowed to leave to a big market team. If both are on this team then Oladipo definitely has a far easier path to make it as his path gets cleared for him (by Hennigan) because of his draft status. If Tobias gets a large contract matched by us then things probably even up behind the scenes due to the financial commitment.

Oladipo
Age: 22.3
NBA Exp: 4205 minutes 130 games
NCAA Exp: 2558 minutes 104 games

Harris
Age: 22.2
NBA Exp: 5344 minutes 208 starts
NCAA Exp: 993 minutes 34 games

They are too close to say one will definitely be a better player, it would be different if there was a significant age/development gap, but there just isn't. They are in the same boat.

[JF5]

some nights he looks like a star, others he looks like an above average starter.

i think he has really blossomed in the games where Tobias is out and the offense is geared to run solely through him and Vuc, so i feel like he performs better with more certainty around his role.

once he starts getting to the line more, making his 3's and improving his passing, he'll become the kind of top 2 option that can take you to the playoffs.

That's a problem... Because Vic will never be a guy to carry a team offensively consistently, so there is going to be a 3rd guy regardless if its Tobias or not... He has to adjust to that, eventually...

[OrlChamps2030]

Like a SG version of Deron Williams in the sense that he's great at a lot of different things but not elite at any one thing except maybe athleticism. That being said though you never know when it might all click for Dipo and the game will really slow down for him and he'll take that leap we're all hoping for.

What? Lol thats a terrible comparison. Before D-Wills ankles derailed his career he was one of the best play-makers and ballhandlers in the league. He was also a maestro of the P&R. He had shot-off-the-dribble ability back to his days at U of I. The only similarity between them is probably their stocky build.

A name I'm really surprised that hasn't been mentioned is... Iguodala. Oladipo reminds me an Iggy that looks for his own shot more. Both are strong, defensive minded guys that are play makers and a bit inconsistent from 3. Iggy was a 19-5-5 guy all-defense caliber in his peak years. I can see Oladipo putting up those numbers, maybe with a few extra points depending on how good/bad this team is

iggy isnt his ceiling though, just a guy he reminds me of. his ceiling is wade-lite

[rcklsscognition]

I don't get the people that are saying he'll average 17ppg, 5asts, and 5reb, in his prime. He's pretty much averaging that now...

The statistics put a high likelihood he is at 17/5/5 because for most players, there is no 'prime', there is a time when they play 36 minutes a game and it inflates their stats. ~90% of players have a fairly predictable career stat line, but there are ~10% of players that make significant jumps in year 1, 2 or 3. IMO there is a ~90% chance that Oladipo's best year will be no more than 18PPG, 4 assists, 5 boards and 2 steals. He could easily be in the 10% and jump to 22PPG, 5, and 5, but it simply isn't likely. As the years tick by the chances he makes a jump decrease. If it doesn't come next year, it's extremely likely he's peaked. I think by the end of January next year, we'll know exactly what his career will look like barring injuries. The reason I'd be fairly confident in the numbers is that he's already got a fairly high usage rate (24.6%) and is already very involved in the offense. I don't see many ways that he becomes much more involved.

A lot of people will say, what about Paul George? Usage rate went from 17% to 28% and minutes per game went from 20 per game to 36. What about Westbrook? Minutes per game have held steady but his usage rate went from 25% to 38%(Durant injury) percent (stat jump started when he went from 25-32%).

There are other success stories but the vast majority stick to the formula. I forget who mentioned it, but Oladipo is looking like a Nick Anderson type with less 3pt shooting. 45% from the field, 35% from 3, 14.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals over the career.

Edit: I said the same for Harkless last season that we should give him until December because he had played enough minutes to reach 2500 which NBA front office's use as the threshold to determine a player's likely future. At that amount of minutes, it is highly likely a player has reached a range close to their peak. We should have traded Harkless last year. Instead we're sitting here trying to make him something he isn't and will never be.

Edit 2: Nick's best two years (his 3rd and 4th season) with the Magic he averaged 19.9, 6.0, 3.4, 1.6 shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.3% from 3 with a FT rate of 74.1% and a usage rate of 24.5%. Oladipo right now is at 24.5% usage and has 16.7, 4.2, 3.8, 1.5 on 47.7% shooting and 32.5% from 3. Oladipo is shooting more 3s per game than Nick did during those two seasons too.

[MoMM]

I forget who mentioned it, but Oladipo is looking like a Nick Anderson type with less 3pt shooting. 45% from the field, 35% from 3, 14.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals over the career.

With a better FT% in the NBA Finals, i hope

[KillMonger]

I think you hit the nail on the head with the bolded part. Oladipo 9 times out of 10 is right under the basket when going up, compare that to other guys like a Westbrook and Wade and you'll notice a difference. Might very well explain some of his struggles when driving.

Agreed, two legged jumpers to me seem to have to be closer to the rim to rock it but one legged jumpers like Westbrook and LaVine can just explode in that mid paint area. Dipo has that explosion when he drives for sure but not so much when he jumps, that's why it's been a while since he's dunked on somebody.

The heck are you all talking about? Westbrook dunks off two feet in traffic. ONE FOOTED jumpers are the guys that struggle in traffic, not TWO footed guys. ONE LEG used for distance, but you can't handle contact because balance can get knocked off easy.

One footed jumpers need a clear runway. DIPO is a ONE FOOTED jumper in game. He only dunks off two if there is nobody around. He's nowhere near these guys explosive ability, which is why he doesn't dunk in traffic.

WESTBROOK
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QX59NsUnmY[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA_WFdnloZQ[/youtube]

STEVE FRANCIS
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aY4k0QttPi8[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vbfNPIAk5g[/youtube]

DIPO
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn3esIT5R5I[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmEgdpZJoyk[/youtube]

well i'm not going to look at all those videos but from the looks of it most of those are all fast break dunks with a full head of steam i'm talking about when they're in the half-court and don't have enough time to get up to full speed and have to use that explosion. In the Half-court you don't see blake yam it off one leg most of the time it's off two because he has to be closer to the rim. What i was getting at is that Westrbook in the half-court is most likely jumping off one not two. Like i said though it seems that way to me, only an opinion and if i'm wrong then so be it but that is what i've seen, maybe i haven't seen enough. Westbrook might be that outlier but there is a difference between a one foot jumper and and two foot jumper some players are better at one as opposed to the other but some like Westbrook can do both.

[KillMonger]

Like a SG version of Deron Williams in the sense that he's great at a lot of different things but not elite at any one thing except maybe athleticism. That being said though you never know when it might all click for Dipo and the game will really slow down for him and he'll take that leap we're all hoping for.

What? Lol thats a terrible comparison. Before D-Wills ankles derailed his career he was one of the best play-makers and ballhandlers in the league. He was also a maestro of the P&R. He had shot-off-the-dribble ability back to his days at U of I. The only similarity between them is probably their stocky build.

A name I'm really surprised that hasn't been mentioned is... Iguodala. Oladipo reminds me an Iggy that looks for his own shot more. Both are strong, defensive minded guys that are play makers and a bit inconsistent from 3. Iggy was a 19-5-5 guy all-defense caliber in his peak years. I can see Oladipo putting up those numbers, maybe with a few extra points depending on how good/bad this team is

iggy isnt his ceiling though, just a guy he reminds me of. his ceiling is wade-lite

2k references for the win....anyway i just repeated what an NBA scout said about D-Will a long time ago and i though it rung true and at this point that is what i see in Dipo. Decent shooter, Decent Driver, Decent Ball-handling, Decent Passing, Above Average Defense and Athleticism. Not really elite at any one thing from my eye test, but as i hear Dipo say all the time he might be just scratching the surface.

[ezzzp]

I don't get the people that are saying he'll average 17ppg, 5asts, and 5reb, in his prime. He's pretty much averaging that now...

The statistics put a high likelihood he is at 17/5/5 because for most players, there is no 'prime', there is a time when they play 36 minutes a game and it inflates their stats. ~90% of players have a fairly predictable career stat line, but there are ~10% of players that make significant jumps in year 1, 2 or 3. IMO there is a ~90% chance that Oladipo's best year will be no more than 18PPG, 4 assists, 5 boards and 2 steals. He could easily be in the 10% and jump to 22PPG, 5, and 5, but it simply isn't likely. As the years tick by the chances he makes a jump decrease. If it doesn't come next year, it's extremely likely he's peaked. I think by the end of January next year, we'll know exactly what his career will look like barring injuries. The reason I'd be fairly confident in the numbers is that he's already got a fairly high usage rate (24.6%) and is already very involved in the offense. I don't see many ways that he becomes much more involved.

A lot of people will say, what about Paul George? Usage rate went from 17% to 28% and minutes per game went from 20 per game to 36. What about Westbrook? Minutes per game have held steady but his usage rate went from 25% to 38%(Durant injury) percent (stat jump started when he went from 25-32%).

There are other success stories but the vast majority stick to the formula. I forget who mentioned it, but Oladipo is looking like a Nick Anderson type with less 3pt shooting. 45% from the field, 35% from 3, 14.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals over the career.

Edit: I said the same for Harkless last season that we should give him until December because he had played enough minutes to reach 2500 which NBA front office's use as the threshold to determine a player's likely future. At that amount of minutes, it is highly likely a player has reached a range close to their peak. We should have traded Harkless last year. Instead we're sitting here trying to make him something he isn't and will never be.

Edit 2: Nick's best two years (his 3rd and 4th season) with the Magic he averaged 19.9, 6.0, 3.4, 1.6 shooting 44.9% from the field and 35.3% from 3 with a FT rate of 74.1% and a usage rate of 24.5%. Oladipo right now is at 24.5% usage and has 16.7, 4.2, 3.8, 1.5 on 47.7% shooting and 32.5% from 3. Oladipo is shooting more 3s per game than Nick did during those two seasons too.

How does playing out of position factor in? Its pretty unusual for a true SG (which Oladipo always has been) to be utilized as a PG for the majority of his NBA minutes. In reality Oladipo has only been at SG for less than 1/2 of his second season. That has to impact both his USG, efficiency and totals.

I do believe there is a "prime" - physical peak for nearly all human males is 28. In addition to that, experience and accumulated knowledge increase efficiency and effectiveness.

Also, those numbers are context specific - 18ppg on a +50 win team is 100% better than 18ppg on -25 win team. Its the two way efficiency of possessions that determines value and its relationship to winning. I gauge Oladipo's value for his two way potential, not for how many points he'll score...its really impossible to get a sense of that until he's in a quality O/D system, but its clear the tools and will are there.

[rcklsscognition]

Well, it's not going to be perfect, but here's a start and it's fairly accurate because Oladipo has basically flipped his positional statistics from last year to this year. He was playing PG appx 59% of the time last year and is playing SG 53% of the time this year with the leftover going to SF time. I think it's close enough to examine.

1) How does playing out of position factor in?

Assists- 35% less assists per game playing at SG.
Points- 3% more points per game playing SG.
Rebounds- 3% more rebounds per game playing SG.
Turnovers- 30% less turnovers per game playing PG.

Regarding usage and shot selection, he remains similar both years, with slightly more drives playing SG and more mid-range jumpers at SG. It's really small difference though. His assisted on % went up a little bit on two-point field goals as he played more SG, but not a ton, he is ISO'ing 70% of the time on twos and about 25% on threes. Usage rate has been the basically the same.

Taking a broad view of things I would say playing more SG would lead to the above stat changes, more mid-range jumpers (off the screen) and more assisted threes from him being the weak-side set shooter during some plays.

Statistically, you'd be looking at modest bumps to PPG, RPG and modest decreases in SPG, TOPG, and APG.

16.93PPG (+0.23), 3.26APG (-0.53), 3.55RPG(+0.05), 1.35SPG(-0.5), 2.4TOPG(-0.39).

2) Phyiscal Prime- Yes, males peak at around age 28. In basketball, shooting guards play their best basketball typically between the ages of 24-30. Oladipo is 22.5 I think. But it isn't a skyscraper effect, players don't often go from not producing anything (PER36) to being amazing players. At this time in Wade's career, he was about 27% away from his peak offensively, which only lasted one season. He was within 8% of his career averages at this time. Someone like Igoudala was within about 20% of his career numbers by this stage.

If you were to project a best-case scenario for Oladipo, I think you could look at a max level increase to career levels of about 25% which is Kobe-esque and a floor of 10%. You would have a max outlier of 50% for one or two seasons on the high end and 20% on the low-end. Worst case is assuming his best season is just a 10% increase in present-day stats.

High-end Projection for career average- 21.1PPG, 4.07APG, 4.4RPG, 1.7SPG
Low-end Projection for career average- 18.6PPG, 3.6APG, 3.9RPG, 1.5SPG
Worst-case Projection for career average-14.9PPG, 2.9APG, 3.2RPG, 1.2SPG
High-end Projection for best season- 25.4PPG, 4.9APG, 5.3RPG, 2SPG
Low-end Projection for best season- 20.3PPG, 3.9APG, 4.26RPG, 1.6SPG
Worst-case Projection for best season- 18.6PPG, 3.6APG, 3.9RPG, 1.5SPG

[ezzzp]

Well, it's not going to be perfect, but here's a start and it's fairly accurate because Oladipo has basically flipped his positional statistics from last year to this year. He was playing PG appx 59% of the time last year and is playing SG 53% of the time this year with the leftover going to SF time. I think it's close enough to examine.

1) How does playing out of position factor in?

Assists- 35% less assists per game playing at SG.
Points- 3% more points per game playing SG.
Rebounds- 3% more rebounds per game playing SG.
Turnovers- 30% less turnovers per game playing PG.

Regarding usage and shot selection, he remains similar both years, with slightly more drives playing SG and more mid-range jumpers at SG. It's really small difference though. His assisted on % went up a little bit on two-point field goals as he played more SG, but not a ton, he is ISO'ing 70% of the time on twos and about 25% on threes. Usage rate has been the basically the same.

Taking a broad view of things I would say playing more SG would lead to the above stat changes, more mid-range jumpers (off the screen) and more assisted threes from him being the weak-side set shooter during some plays.

Statistically, you'd be looking at modest bumps to PPG, RPG and modest decreases in SPG, TOPG, and APG.

16.93PPG (+0.23), 3.26APG (-0.53), 3.55RPG(+0.05), 1.35SPG(-0.5), 2.4TOPG(-0.39).

2) Phyiscal Prime- Yes, males peak at around age 28. In basketball, shooting guards play their best basketball typically between the ages of 24-30. Oladipo is 22.5 I think. But it isn't a skyscraper effect, players don't often go from not producing anything (PER36) to being amazing players. At this time in Wade's career, he was about 27% away from his peak offensively, which only lasted one season. He was within 8% of his career averages at this time. Someone like Igoudala was within about 20% of his career numbers by this stage.

If you were to project a best-case scenario for Oladipo, I think you could look at a max level increase to career levels of about 25% which is Kobe-esque and a floor of 10%. You would have a max outlier of 50% for one or two seasons on the high end and 20% on the low-end. Worst case is assuming his best season is just a 10% increase in present-day stats.

High-end Projection for career average- 21.1PPG, 4.07APG, 4.4RPG, 1.7SPG
Low-end Projection for career average- 18.6PPG, 3.6APG, 3.9RPG, 1.5SPG
Worst-case Projection for career average-14.9PPG, 2.9APG, 3.2RPG, 1.2SPG
High-end Projection for best season- 25.4PPG, 4.9APG, 5.3RPG, 2SPG
Low-end Projection for best season- 20.3PPG, 3.9APG, 4.26RPG, 1.6SPG
Worst-case Projection for best season- 18.6PPG, 3.6APG, 3.9RPG, 1.5SPG

Thanks, great post.

It looks like chances are he'll produce pretty good stats even in a worse case scenario based on this model...we just have to hope those numbers are effective quality stats that correlate with wins

[ImChillin01]

Oladipo is hard worker. He'll def be an all-star and top 5 SG

[tiderulz]

Oladipo is hard worker. He'll def be an all-star and top 5 SG

just because he is a hard worker? plenty of hard workers never even made it to the NBA

[VoiceOReason]

Well, it's not going to be perfect, but here's a start and it's fairly accurate because Oladipo has basically flipped his positional statistics from last year to this year. He was playing PG appx 59% of the time last year and is playing SG 53% of the time this year with the leftover going to SF time. I think it's close enough to examine.

1) How does playing out of position factor in?

Assists- 35% less assists per game playing at SG.
Points- 3% more points per game playing SG.
Rebounds- 3% more rebounds per game playing SG.
Turnovers- 30% less turnovers per game playing PG.

Regarding usage and shot selection, he remains similar both years, with slightly more drives playing SG and more mid-range jumpers at SG. It's really small difference though. His assisted on % went up a little bit on two-point field goals as he played more SG, but not a ton, he is ISO'ing 70% of the time on twos and about 25% on threes. Usage rate has been the basically the same.

Taking a broad view of things I would say playing more SG would lead to the above stat changes, more mid-range jumpers (off the screen) and more assisted threes from him being the weak-side set shooter during some plays.

Statistically, you'd be looking at modest bumps to PPG, RPG and modest decreases in SPG, TOPG, and APG.

16.93PPG (+0.23), 3.26APG (-0.53), 3.55RPG(+0.05), 1.35SPG(-0.5), 2.4TOPG(-0.39).

2) Phyiscal Prime- Yes, males peak at around age 28. In basketball, shooting guards play their best basketball typically between the ages of 24-30. Oladipo is 22.5 I think. But it isn't a skyscraper effect, players don't often go from not producing anything (PER36) to being amazing players. At this time in Wade's career, he was about 27% away from his peak offensively, which only lasted one season. He was within 8% of his career averages at this time. Someone like Igoudala was within about 20% of his career numbers by this stage.

If you were to project a best-case scenario for Oladipo, I think you could look at a max level increase to career levels of about 25% which is Kobe-esque and a floor of 10%. You would have a max outlier of 50% for one or two seasons on the high end and 20% on the low-end. Worst case is assuming his best season is just a 10% increase in present-day stats.

High-end Projection for career average- 21.1PPG, 4.07APG, 4.4RPG, 1.7SPG
Low-end Projection for career average- 18.6PPG, 3.6APG, 3.9RPG, 1.5SPG
Worst-case Projection for career average-14.9PPG, 2.9APG, 3.2RPG, 1.2SPG
High-end Projection for best season- 25.4PPG, 4.9APG, 5.3RPG, 2SPG
Low-end Projection for best season- 20.3PPG, 3.9APG, 4.26RPG, 1.6SPG
Worst-case Projection for best season- 18.6PPG, 3.6APG, 3.9RPG, 1.5SPG

Phenomenal post! Thank you for taking the time to put this together.... I have a question for you, doesn't it seem like oladipo doesn't get foul calls on a lot of his drives? Does your math take into account the possibility of the human factors of refs giving him more respect as he gets time in the league?

I feel like his points will be more to the high end of your projections because of this... Maybe I am way off but I feel like he gets a bit disrespected in this sense

[rcklsscognition]

I didn't include, though I wanted to. I didn't have solid numbers on referee bias for fouls drawn but rather for fouls committed. There is bias involved in committing, and there is a formula that accounts for age, experience, and all-star status, but I wasn't sure if it worked for fouls drawn.

So, I looked at fouls drawn rate of the notable players in the league, Harden/Kobe/Wade on top and Joe Johnson/Wes Mathews/Klay Thompson on the bottom. What I saw was no clear evidence that being more experience got you more fouls based on experience alone. There were plenty of young players not very well known who were drawing at high rates per minute. Plenty of experienced players drawing lower rates per minute. It was more game style and I think if we see that Oladipo has gone to the rim more often as a SG, we could assume he would see a very slight uptick in fouls drawn because of that, but since he has spent a large amount of time at SG before, we can sort of assume his foul rate is not going to jump a lot.

The numbers say the top players (starters) are getting 0.07 to 0.13 fouls drawn per minute. Oladipo is averaging 3.5 fouls drawn while playing 34.4 minutes a game, which is 0.010 fouls per minute right in middle in fact. Best case scenario is 0.13, that is Harden/Durant Wesbrook territory, the only guys over that were a couple of centers (Dwight and Cousins) in years past. So best case, he gets an extra 0.03 fouls per minute, which would be 4.5 fouls per game, an increase of 1. He is shooting 81.6% from the FT line, so that extra foul would over time equal out to 1.63 points per game added.

These stats are for shooting fouls only btw. There is a minor difference to account for 3pt to 2pt fouls, but those are really enough to worry about.

TLDR: I think it's fair to argue that Oladipo could be at the higher end of the projection because it's possible his foul rate will increase to 0.13 FPM bumping his scoring average up about 1.6PPG."

[Viper1500]

Oladipo is hard worker. He'll def be an all-star and top 5 SG

just because he is a hard worker? plenty of hard workers never even made it to the NBA

Most of them don't have the athleticism to back it up and a I think the term "hard worker" is thrown around way to often. Dipo is a true hard worker unlike a lot of these players credited with the same title

[axl_c_cool]

Hard work is the formula, read a book called bounce by Matthew Syed. He talks about growth mindset and how high quality coaching in quantity is what produces the best athletes, there is no defined natural talent outside of physical ability and any advantage otherwise can be trained

[VoiceOReason]

I didn't include, though I wanted to. I didn't have solid numbers on referee bias for fouls drawn but rather for fouls committed. There is bias involved in committing, and there is a formula that accounts for age, experience, and all-star status, but I wasn't sure if it worked for fouls drawn.

So, I looked at fouls drawn rate of the notable players in the league, Harden/Kobe/Wade on top and Joe Johnson/Wes Mathews/Klay Thompson on the bottom. What I saw was no clear evidence that being more experience got you more fouls based on experience alone. There were plenty of young players not very well known who were drawing at high rates per minute. Plenty of experienced players drawing lower rates per minute. It was more game style and I think if we see that Oladipo has gone to the rim more often as a SG, we could assume he would see a very slight uptick in fouls drawn because of that, but since he has spent a large amount of time at SG before, we can sort of assume his foul rate is not going to jump a lot.

The numbers say the top players (starters) are getting 0.07 to 0.13 fouls drawn per minute. Oladipo is averaging 3.5 fouls drawn while playing 34.4 minutes a game, which is 0.010 fouls per minute right in middle in fact. Best case scenario is 0.13, that is Harden/Durant Wesbrook territory, the only guys over that were a couple of centers (Dwight and Cousins) in years past. So best case, he gets an extra 0.03 fouls per minute, which would be 4.5 fouls per game, an increase of 1. He is shooting 81.6% from the FT line, so that extra foul would over time equal out to 1.63 points per game added.

These stats are for shooting fouls only btw. There is a minor difference to account for 3pt to 2pt fouls, but those are really enough to worry about.

TLDR: I think it's fair to argue that Oladipo could be at the higher end of the projection because it's possible his foul rate will increase to 0.13 FPM bumping his scoring average up about 1.6PPG."

Wow man solid work..really impressed that you actually thought about the foul rate increasing....

But it's weird how Someone like Joe Johnson did see a uptick...going from relatively unknown to borderline star at one point...

What I like about all of the math you are using is that it goes along with the eyeball test, at least for me...low 20ppg along with 4-5 apg and rpg...now let's hope he's doing it on a ECF's type team

[VoiceOReason]

Supposed to say Joe Johnson didn't see a uptick

[DampForThree]

Right now Oladipo is basically a less experienced Reggie Jackson.

Absolute best case at this point is a smaller Paul George--great defensive player with a decent offensive repertoire. I don't see Oladipo ever becoming a truly gifted offensive player like some are listing here.