Magic players assessed by CARMELO

[drsd]

Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization or CARMELO

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

538 LINK

I have looked at all Magic players and several interesting things emerged. Payton has a better and Harris a worse projection than many fans here give. Orlando is definitely to peak in the seasons 2017/18 and 2018/19. That is a chance for a BtB title run.

Here is what one sees.

PGs:
Payton: "Future all star" Peak: 2017-2019 window (looks to be the key piece for Orlando)
Watson: "Rotation player" Peak: Right now (i.e. he is unlikely to be part of the Magic's future).
Napier: "Project" Peak: 2017-2019 (looks on pace to be a long term back-up for Payton)

SGs:
Oladipo: "Up-and-comer" Peak: 2016-2019 (reads as a better than average starter)
Fournier: "Rotation player" Peak: 2017-2018 (sounds like a perfect back-up for Oladipo)
Hezonja: "no rating" Rookies are not assessed.

SF:
Harris: "Average starter" Peak: 2017-2019 (clearly he will be overpass by this rating, but might a perfect #3rd player)
Marble: "Rotation player" Peak: 2016-2019 (perfect back-up for Harris)
Ejim: "no rating" Rookies are not assessed.

PF:
Gordon: "Up-and-comer" Peak: 2019-2022 (he is not perfectly aligned but could be a key part of a second wave in the '20s)
Frye: "Rotation player" Peak: 2016 (so he dips this year and improves next before he moves on)
Nicholson "Scrub" Peak: 2019-2022 (he always has a wins above replacement that is negative; not really "Peaking")


C:
Vučević: "Average starter" Peak: 2016-2018 (I was most surprised by this; but still his peak range as perfect)
Dedmon: "Defensive specialist" Peak: 2018-2020 (perfect back-up for Vučević)
Smith: "Scrub" Peak: 2019-2022 (he always has a wins above replacement that is negative; not really "Peaking")



Taken together: Orlando has as its starters one-star (Payton), two excellent players (Oladipo and Gordon), and two average players (Harris and Vučević). This is added to four excellent bench players: Napier, Fournier, Marble, and Dedmon, which means Orlando is projected to have a fantastic nine-man rotation.

That most starters and back-ups are perfectly aligned in their peak means to me that Orlando can be projected to be a strong playoff-contender in the 2016/17 season and be a championship contender for 2017/18 and 2018/19.


..

[rusoopE]

shiiiit, i dont understand anything on those charts

[MellowRose]

Why isn't there a rating for Hezonja, yet there is for Okafor?

[SOUL]

Why isn't there a rating for Hezonja, yet there is for Okafor?

I think it has something to do with overseas rookies, Porzingis doesn't have one either.

[magician4ever]

That most starters and back-ups are perfectly aligned in their peak means to me that Orlando can be projected to be a strong playoff-contender in the 2016/17 season and be a championship contender for 2017/18 and 2018/19.
..

A two year championship window is somewhat disappointing, honestly. I know it's generally the standard, but I expect ours to be much longer. Rob noted the reason for such a long, organic rebuild is so that we can be perennial contenders like the Spurs once we get things rolling.

[drsd]

A two year championship window is somewhat disappointing, honestly. I know its generally the standard, but I expect ours to be much longer. Rob noted the reason for such a long, organic rebuild is so that we can be perennial contenders like the Spurs once we get things rolling.

Based on peak times, Gordon could be the start of a revamp on the two-year run. Note: with Orlando dominating the East a couple years in a row, we must assume that GM Hennigan will have an easy time recruiting FAs.


..

[Melvinlocker]

A similar analysis was done by a poster at Blazers Edge predicting the first three seasons for draft picks in 2013 and 2014. He takes into account nearly every verifiable physical measurement and what he deems as relevant statistics and cross references it with every college player that we have stats and measurements for. I found it to be a very fascinating read. You can peruse his posts to get a feel for his method:

http://www.sbnation.com/users/ziggythebeagle/blog


Here is a specific profile for Oladipo:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/5/24/4364704/victor-oladipo-comparable-analysis?_ga=1.147383863.1867502722.1444264092

Here is a specific profile for Aaron Gordon:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2014/6/10/5799428/comparable-analysis-aaron-gordon?_ga=1.143713589.1867502722.1444264092


If you want to see Elfrid there was a ranking of the 2014 class and you can scroll down to find his name:

http://www.blazersedge.com/2014/6/18/5823498/comparable-analysis-top-80-ranked?_ga=1.122847627.1867502722.1444264092

[magician4ever]

A two year championship window is somewhat disappointing, honestly. I know its generally the standard, but I expect ours to be much longer. Rob noted the reason for such a long, organic rebuild is so that we can be perennial contenders like the Spurs once we get things rolling.

Based on peak times, Gordon could be the start of a revamp on the two-year run. Note: with Orlando dominating the East a couple years in a row, we must assume that GM Hennigan will have an easy time recruiting FAs.


..

That is true. It is pretty neat to think we almost swayed Millsap to leave the #1 seed for a 25 win team, provided he did not use us to get a nice contract in ATL. I just read the in-depth guide on how fivethirtyeight's projections work, and I concluded that I'm going to take the current projections for our boys with a grain of salt. It's really unpredictable how our guys will shape up since they are so young. The projections are more accurate for players in their veteran years.

[Melvinlocker]

A two year championship window is somewhat disappointing, honestly. I know its generally the standard, but I expect ours to be much longer. Rob noted the reason for such a long, organic rebuild is so that we can be perennial contenders like the Spurs once we get things rolling.

Based on peak times, Gordon could be the start of a revamp on the two-year run. Note: with Orlando dominating the East a couple years in a row, we must assume that GM Hennigan will have an easy time recruiting FAs.


..

That is true. It is pretty neat to think we almost swayed Millsap to leave the #1 seed for a 25 win team, provided he did not use us to get a nice contract in ATL. I just read the in-depth guide on how fivethirtyeight's projections work, and I concluded that I'm going to take the current projections for our boys with a grain of salt. It's really unpredictable how our guys will shape up since they are so young. The projections are more accurate for players in their veteran years.

Agreed. I think where this tool could be helpful for us is in looking for veteran free agents to add to our young nucleus.

[Orlwillbeback]

Overseas rookies are not assessed.

[ezzzp]

Its very difficult, if not impossible, to win a championship without a future MVP category player or multiple future all-star category talents.

Within the context of these projections, and with everyone staying at (or above) the predicted course these projections hint at a shortage of talent.

Of course Hezonja is missing and an elite coach can augment for some of the shortage of talent, but one thing you can learn from this metric is that: outside of at least one or two sharp anomalies occurring (in a positive direction), the Magic will have to flip for or add at least one elite talent if they want to truly compete for a trophy.

[Optimus_Steel]

This is not what I expected to see when I read the title of this thread lol.

[BadMofoPimp]

Hey OP, please rename thread title to: "Magic players Dissed by CARMELO"

[NeckOfOladipo]

Nate Silver's methodology was flawed to say the least... in more ways than one.

There are a lot of factors not being considered in this "analysis," if you want to even call it that. Many of the player comparisons are tenuous at best..

[drsd]

Nate Silver's methodology was flawed to say the least... in more ways than one.

There are a lot of factors not being considered in this "analysis," if you want to even call it that. Many of the player comparisons are tenuous at best..

I looked up Orlando's certain four starters, plus "Mr. Scrub" to see if I agree. In order 1-5.


Harris:
Wilson Chandler
Al Harrington
Tim Thomas
Rudy Gay
Jeff Green
- Basically this looks fine.


Oladipo:
Quentin Dailey
Ray Allen
Willie Anderson
Ben Gordon
Glenn Robinson
- Odd to have two SFs. This is odd.


Payton:
Ramon Rondo
Ricky Rubio
Baron Davis
Isiah Thomas
Eric Bledsoe
- Basically this looks fine.


Vučević
Al Jefferson
Cliff Robinson
Drew Gooden
Zach Randolph
Troy Murphy
- Again basically fine


...


and the bonus Magician

Nicholson:
Tom Hammonds
Darrell Arthur
Chris Crawford
Michael Doleac
Loren Meyer
- Hmm. Not a horrible list. And not out of bounds. Though to tab Nicholson a scrub if he is most like Hammonds. He was a journeyman who played for 11 years and had some not-horrible years.



..

[Orium]

If you were to run the analysis on other up-and-coming teams in the east, would it give equally optimistic results? I suspect it would just tell us what we already know, that teams stacked with young talent are projected to do well in a 2-4 year window. Nothing ground breaking..

[UCFJayBird]

Nate Silver's methodology was flawed to say the least... in more ways than one.

There are a lot of factors not being considered in this "analysis," if you want to even call it that. Many of the player comparisons are tenuous at best..

He should stick to predicting elections, lol.

[Neon1]

Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization or CARMELO

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

538 LINK

I have looked at all Magic players and several interesting things emerged. Payton has a better and Harris a worse projection than many fans here give. Orlando is definitely to peak in the seasons 2017/18 and 2018/19. That is a chance for a BtB title run.

Here is what one sees.

PGs:
Payton: "Future all star" Peak: 2017-2019 window (looks to be the key piece for Orlando)
Watson: "Rotation player" Peak: Right now (i.e. he is unlikely to be part of the Magic's future).
Napier: "Project" Peak: 2017-2019 (looks on pace to be a long term back-up for Payton)

SGs:
Oladipo: "Up-and-comer" Peak: 2016-2019 (reads as a better than average starter)
Fournier: "Rotation player" Peak: 2017-2018 (sounds like a perfect back-up for Oladipo)
Hezonja: "no rating" Rookies are not assessed.

SF:
Harris: "Average starter" Peak: 2017-2019 (clearly he will be overpass by this rating, but might a perfect #3rd player)
Marble: "Rotation player" Peak: 2016-2019 (perfect back-up for Harris)
Ejim: "no rating" Rookies are not assessed.

PF:
Gordon: "Up-and-comer" Peak: 2019-2022 (he is not perfectly aligned but could be a key part of a second wave in the '20s)
Frye: "Rotation player" Peak: 2016 (so he dips this year and improves next before he moves on)
Nicholson "Scrub" Peak: 2019-2022 (he always has a wins above replacement that is negative; not really "Peaking")


C:
Vučević: "Average starter" Peak: 2016-2018 (I was most surprised by this; but still his peak range as perfect)
Dedmon: "Defensive specialist" Peak: 2018-2020 (perfect back-up for Vučević)
Smith: "Scrub" Peak: 2019-2022 (he always has a wins above replacement that is negative; not really "Peaking")



Taken together: Orlando has as its starters one-star (Payton), two excellent players (Oladipo and Gordon), and two average players (Harris and Vučević). This is added to four excellent bench players: Napier, Fournier, Marble, and Dedmon, which means Orlando is projected to have a fantastic nine-man rotation.

That most starters and back-ups are perfectly aligned in their peak means to me that Orlando can be projected to be a strong playoff-contender in the 2016/17 season and be a championship contender for 2017/18 and 2018/19.


..

Where do you get that "up-and-comer" means anything at all, let alone means that they will be "excellent players" and reads as "better then average starter"?

This is all the "up-and-comer" labels that came across the random scroll.

Victor Oladipo
Jabari Parker
Jared Sullinger
Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist
Nerlens Noel
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Terrance Jones
Steven Adams
Ben McLemore
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynk
Aaron Gordon
James Young
Nikola Mirotic

I don't even know what i could make of that group, good or bad.

Average starters:
Demar Derozan
Rudy Gay
Monta Ellis
Kemba Walker
Jeff Teague
Nikola Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Brandon Jennings
Loul Deng
Ty Lawson
Brandon Knight
Goran Dragic
Micheal Carter-Williams
Trevor Ariza
Thad Young
Darren Collison
Markieff Morris
Trey Burke
Harrison Barnes
Tristan Thompson
Alec Burks
Avery Bradley
Langston Galloway

If anything Oladipo seems more a fit with the average starter grouping. I don't think the "up-and-comer" is a good thing just by looking at the bunch.

[ezzzp]

Where do you get that "up-and-comer" means anything at all, let alone means that they will be "excellent players" and reads as "better then average starter"?

Spoiler:

This is all the "up-and-comer" labels that came across the random scroll.

Victor Oladipo
Jabari Parker
Jared Sullinger
Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist
Nerlens Noel
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Terrance Jones
Steven Adams
Ben McLemore
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynk
Aaron Gordon
James Young
Nikola Mirotic

I don't even know what i could make of that group, good or bad.

Average starters:
Demar Derozan
Rudy Gay
Monta Ellis
Kemba Walker
Jeff Teague
Nikola Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Brandon Jennings
Loul Deng
Ty Lawson
Brandon Knight
Goran Dragic
Micheal Carter-Williams
Trevor Ariza
Thad Young
Darren Collison
Markieff Morris
Trey Burke
Harrison Barnes
Tristan Thompson
Alec Burks
Avery Bradley
Langston Galloway

If anything Oladipo seems more a fit with the average starter grouping. I don't think the "up-and-comer" is a good thing just by looking at the bunch.

I'm pretty sure it means that mathematically their WARP potential peak is higher than what the WARP potential peak of those who got qualified as average starters. This is a prognostication tool and that is a future category not what they are now or have been.

It is also based on their peak WARP potential trajectory, not their mean WARP potential trajectory...what many call a ceiling. Thus the future ceiling of Oladipo in 3 years is higher than the future ceiling of Deng in 3 years.

[Neon1]

Where do you get that "up-and-comer" means anything at all, let alone means that they will be "excellent players" and reads as "better then average starter"?

Spoiler:

This is all the "up-and-comer" labels that came across the random scroll.

Victor Oladipo
Jabari Parker
Jared Sullinger
Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist
Nerlens Noel
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Terrance Jones
Steven Adams
Ben McLemore
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynk
Aaron Gordon
James Young
Nikola Mirotic

I don't even know what i could make of that group, good or bad.

Average starters:
Demar Derozan
Rudy Gay
Monta Ellis
Kemba Walker
Jeff Teague
Nikola Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Brandon Jennings
Loul Deng
Ty Lawson
Brandon Knight
Goran Dragic
Micheal Carter-Williams
Trevor Ariza
Thad Young
Darren Collison
Markieff Morris
Trey Burke
Harrison Barnes
Tristan Thompson
Alec Burks
Avery Bradley
Langston Galloway

If anything Oladipo seems more a fit with the average starter grouping. I don't think the "up-and-comer" is a good thing just by looking at the bunch.

I'm pretty sure it means that mathematically their WARP potential peak is higher than what the WARP potential peak of those who got qualified as average starters. This is a prognostication tool and that is a future category not what they are now or have been.

It is also based on their peak WARP potential trajectory, not their mean WARP potential trajectory...what many call a ceiling. Thus the future ceiling of Oladipo in 3 years is higher than the future ceiling of Deng in 3 years.

Did you look at the OTHER names on the "up-and-comer" list? You could make that argument for Oladipo and probably Parker (even though he did nothing of note before he got injured), what I'm saying is that dsrd basically just anointed the up and comer grouping as excellent projection basically just because thats where Oladipo and AG's names happened to have fell.

Theres nobody in their right mind looking at those two groups and saying that being in that group of players is a good thing. Oladipo out like a sore thumb as far as being out of place in there.