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What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games?

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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#21 » by MagicFan101 » Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:55 am

ezzzp wrote:
Knightlife wrote:Jason Smith's usage rates since the new year:
Jan: 23.3%
Feb: 25.6%
March: 26.8%

Tobias Harris' usage rate before he left town: 17%.
Drops mic.


USG distorts with minutes and you are comparing a 34 mpg guy vs a 15 mpg guy....for example Fournier has a 19% USG....oops better pick that mic back up :wink: ...

...Smith just shoots a lot for a back up center, but in the end he only plays 15 mpg and that mpg is a little bloated because of the increased minutes from Vuc's injury.


Ssshhh. Let the fool keep walking off the stage! You only call for an encore performance when you enjoyed the main act!
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#22 » by Knightlife » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:12 am

MagicFan101 wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
Knightlife wrote:Jason Smith's usage rates since the new year:
Jan: 23.3%
Feb: 25.6%
March: 26.8%

Tobias Harris' usage rate before he left town: 17%.
Drops mic.


USG distorts with minutes and you are comparing a 34 mpg guy vs a 15 mpg guy....for example Fournier has a 19% USG....oops better pick that mic back up :wink: ...

...Smith just shoots a lot for a back up center, but in the end he only plays 15 mpg and that mpg is a little bloated because of the increased minutes from Vuc's injury.


Ssshhh. Let the fool keep walking off the stage! You only call for an encore performance when you enjoyed the main act!



Yeah, and actually being a ball handler also boosts one's usage rating. Players who do nothing but catch and shoot aren't supposed to have 27% usages. Since the All-star break he's literally averaging 9 shots a game on 17 minutes. He also just so happens to have a 94/108 ortg/drtg since the all-star break.

The point here isn't that J. Smith is the reason why we are losing. The point is that we have a coach who is more than happy to let a subpar player dictate so much of the offense when he's on the court just because he's a veteran.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#23 » by Orlwillbeback » Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:59 am

we just need to trade vucevic and get older.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#24 » by Duradero » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:04 am

Atrocious shot selection
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#25 » by Bensational » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:18 am

"What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games?"

Orlwillbeback wrote:we are not a tough team and every player on the team needs to get stronger and tougher. Gordon and Vucevic is a pretty soft front line. Vooch is just a bitch and Gordon has no lower body strength. All of our players need to hit the weight room and physically mature.


Orlwillbeback wrote:we just need to trade vucevic and get older.


I don't think you understand what the OP was asking...
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#26 » by swarlesbarkley » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:23 am

This is all fascinating. Thanks for the great topic! Hope Henny is looking into all of this. I like Vuc, but that stat about FTs with him in and out of the game is telling.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#27 » by Knightlife » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:42 am

swarlesbarkley wrote:This is all fascinating. Thanks for the great topic! Hope Henny is looking into all of this. I like Vuc, but that stat about FTs with him in and out of the game is telling.


Unless of course Skiles/Martins shows Hennigan the door.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#28 » by LordBaldric » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:45 am

As an outsider who now lives in the Tampa area and has watched many Magic games, (and I like the team in general) the team strikes me as one with a bunch of very good role players, with zero stars. And in the NBA stars drive everything.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#29 » by Bensational » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:48 am

I'd say the lack of a 20ppg+ scorer is telling enough that we don't have anyone to build around yet, so we're still trying to find our identity.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#30 » by OrlandO » Mon Mar 28, 2016 5:00 am

MagicStarwipe wrote:
IGotDaMagicInMe wrote:That I have found, Orlando is dead last in free throw rate and FTA per fga.

Since Vuc has been out we've been 18th in the league in FTA per game. Before he went out we were 30th.

With Gordon starting prior to Vuc injury: 22 fta per game
With Gordon starting post Vuc injury: 23.1 fta per game

After Harris trade prior to Vuc injury: 23.6 fta per game
After Harris trade post Vuc injury. 23.1 fta per game

Wow, what a difference!
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#31 » by drsd » Mon Mar 28, 2016 6:38 am

Orlwillbeback wrote:we just need to trade vucevic and get older.



Solution:

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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#32 » by ezzzp » Mon Mar 28, 2016 7:49 am

Knightlife wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
USG distorts with minutes and you are comparing a 34 mpg guy vs a 15 mpg guy....for example Fournier has a 19% USG....oops better pick that mic back up :wink: ...

...Smith just shoots a lot for a back up center, but in the end he only plays 15 mpg and that mpg is a little bloated because of the increased minutes from Vuc's injury.


Ssshhh. Let the fool keep walking off the stage! You only call for an encore performance when you enjoyed the main act!



Yeah, and actually being a ball handler also boosts one's usage rating. Players who do nothing but catch and shoot aren't supposed to have 27% usages. Since the All-star break he's literally averaging 9 shots a game on 17 minutes. He also just so happens to have a 94/108 ortg/drtg since the all-star break.

The point here isn't that J. Smith is the reason why we are losing. The point is that we have a coach who is more than happy to let a subpar player dictate so much of the offense when he's on the court just because he's a veteran.


Being a ball handler does not boost USG Rate. USG is based on ended possessions within minutes played using FGA, FTA and TOV - all contextualized within the team's numbers.

Smith averaged 14.6mpg in February. The boost to 17mpg came as a result of Vucevic's injury in the first week of March. When Smith is on the floor he is always playing with the second unit, who are all vets except for Hezonja. So I have no idea wth you are talking about with the "just because he is a vet" thing.

That second unit needs to score any way it can; it absolutely needs to take the open shot when it has it. The shot that most teams can't defend is the long 2 from a center. Those wide open looks are there because centers do not like to drift out that far from the rim. The second unit offense is just taking what the defense gives. That is not some devious conspiracy for Skiles to only help out vets.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#34 » by BadMofoPimp » Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:26 pm

Papa Johns is losing money in the Orlando Market.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#35 » by NBAchamps2017 » Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:47 pm

3 all star type players.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#36 » by KingRobb02 » Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:52 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Knightlife wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
Ssshhh. Let the fool keep walking off the stage! You only call for an encore performance when you enjoyed the main act!



Yeah, and actually being a ball handler also boosts one's usage rating. Players who do nothing but catch and shoot aren't supposed to have 27% usages. Since the All-star break he's literally averaging 9 shots a game on 17 minutes. He also just so happens to have a 94/108 ortg/drtg since the all-star break.

The point here isn't that J. Smith is the reason why we are losing. The point is that we have a coach who is more than happy to let a subpar player dictate so much of the offense when he's on the court just because he's a veteran.


Being a ball handler does not boost USG Rate. USG is based on ended possessions within minutes played using FGA, FTA and TOV - all contextualized within the team's numbers.

Smith averaged 14.6mpg in February. The boost to 17mpg came as a result of Vucevic's injury in the first week of March. When Smith is on the floor he is always playing with the second unit, who are all vets except for Hezonja. So I have no idea wth you are talking about with the "just because he is a vet" thing.

That second unit needs to score any way it can; it absolutely needs to take the open shot when it has it. The shot that most teams can't defend is the long 2 from a center. Those wide open looks are there because centers do not like to drift out that far from the rim. The second unit offense is just taking what the defense gives. That is not some devious conspiracy for Skiles to only help out vets.

Good summary. Also explains why usage (and by extension PER) is a busted stat. A guy like Ricky Rubio has the ball in his hands (based on time of possession) as much as John Wall, but if you check their usage numbers, it seems like Ricky doesn't do much.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#37 » by Blue_and_Whte » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:08 pm

Vooch missing 12 games is a stat that stands out to me.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#38 » by Catledge » Mon Mar 28, 2016 2:15 pm

Our starting pg's extraordinary personal inefficiency: .481 TS% on 12.4 shots/FGAs. For comparison, Jason Smith's (relies on notoriously inefficient long 2s) TS% is .518, Dipo's (regarded as a poor shot selector by most people here) is .535, Vooch (takes very few FTs) is .520, and Fournier is .577.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#39 » by Knightlife » Mon Mar 28, 2016 3:54 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Knightlife wrote:
MagicFan101 wrote:
Ssshhh. Let the fool keep walking off the stage! You only call for an encore performance when you enjoyed the main act!



Yeah, and actually being a ball handler also boosts one's usage rating. Players who do nothing but catch and shoot aren't supposed to have 27% usages. Since the All-star break he's literally averaging 9 shots a game on 17 minutes. He also just so happens to have a 94/108 ortg/drtg since the all-star break.

The point here isn't that J. Smith is the reason why we are losing. The point is that we have a coach who is more than happy to let a subpar player dictate so much of the offense when he's on the court just because he's a veteran.


Being a ball handler does not boost USG Rate. USG is based on ended possessions within minutes played using FGA, FTA and TOV - all contextualized within the team's numbers.

Smith averaged 14.6mpg in February. The boost to 17mpg came as a result of Vucevic's injury in the first week of March. When Smith is on the floor he is always playing with the second unit, who are all vets except for Hezonja. So I have no idea wth you are talking about with the "just because he is a vet" thing.

That second unit needs to score any way it can; it absolutely needs to take the open shot when it has it. The shot that most teams can't defend is the long 2 from a center. Those wide open looks are there because centers do not like to drift out that far from the rim. The second unit offense is just taking what the defense gives. That is not some devious conspiracy for Skiles to only help out vets.


Fair enough, I have been completely under the impression that usage rate also takes into account assists numbers; which would be intuitive.

But most of my point stands. Jason Smith is a largely limited player who only really scores in a single way- long twos. Look at his shot chart for the year: 63 FGA at the rim, 285 FGA from 16 feet out. Regardless of who else is on the floor, he has no business being allowed to shoot as often as he does. I can think of several bench players who would provide much better offense, one of whom is Hezonja. If you were to allow Hezonja to actually dictate the offense for even just 5 minutes a game, I think you would be wowed by the results not only with the team, but also in Hezonja's personal development.

But that'll never happen because he's in Skiles' dog pound simply for being a rookie.
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Re: What is your most telling stat that shows why Orlando doesn't win games? 

Post#40 » by MagicFan101 » Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:14 pm

Knightlife wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
Knightlife wrote:

Yeah, and actually being a ball handler also boosts one's usage rating. Players who do nothing but catch and shoot aren't supposed to have 27% usages. Since the All-star break he's literally averaging 9 shots a game on 17 minutes. He also just so happens to have a 94/108 ortg/drtg since the all-star break.

The point here isn't that J. Smith is the reason why we are losing. The point is that we have a coach who is more than happy to let a subpar player dictate so much of the offense when he's on the court just because he's a veteran.


Being a ball handler does not boost USG Rate. USG is based on ended possessions within minutes played using FGA, FTA and TOV - all contextualized within the team's numbers.

Smith averaged 14.6mpg in February. The boost to 17mpg came as a result of Vucevic's injury in the first week of March. When Smith is on the floor he is always playing with the second unit, who are all vets except for Hezonja. So I have no idea wth you are talking about with the "just because he is a vet" thing.

That second unit needs to score any way it can; it absolutely needs to take the open shot when it has it. The shot that most teams can't defend is the long 2 from a center. Those wide open looks are there because centers do not like to drift out that far from the rim. The second unit offense is just taking what the defense gives. That is not some devious conspiracy for Skiles to only help out vets.


Fair enough, I have been completely under the impression that usage rate also takes into account assists numbers; which would be intuitive.

But most of my point stands. Jason Smith is a largely limited player who only really scores in a single way- long twos. Look at his shot chart for the year: 63 FGA at the rim, 285 FGA from 16 feet out. Regardless of who else is on the floor, he has no business being allowed to shoot as often as he does. I can think of several bench players who would provide much better offense, one of whom is Hezonja. If you were to allow Hezonja to actually dictate the offense for even just 5 minutes a game, I think you would be wowed by the results not only with the team, but also in Hezonja's personal development.

But that'll never happen because he's in Skiles' dog pound simply for being a rookie.


You say Skiles will NEVER let Hezonja develop or contribute and use him being a rookie as a reason why.

Will Hezonja be a rookie next year? How about the year after that? For someone confident enough to open petitions demanding major changes to a franchise, you don't seem to understand the basics very well.

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