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Knightro wrote:

eyriq wrote:

Ralof wrote:Best D in nba after 12 games,that's definitely something

I'm curious what the average record is for teams with the best defense. Like, if all you know is that at the end of the season the team has the #1 defense, what's the most likely final record? I'm going to check this later but my guess would be high 40s, low 50s.

Going back to 2010...

No. 1 Defense Record
2010: Bucks 46-36
2011: Bulls 62-20
2012: Bulls 50-16
2013: Pacers 49-32
2014: Pacers 56-26
2015: Warriors 67-15
2016: Spurs 67-15
2017: Spurs 61-21
2018: Jazz 48-34
2019: Bucks 60-22
2020: Bucks 56-17
2021: Lakers 42-30
2022: Celtics 51-31
2023: Cavs 51-31

Standardizing for an 82 game season that's an average of 56.5 wins. It looks like you've got roughly two types of teams, clear contenders and playoff teams. I'd say we'd fall into the playoff teams group if this scenario played out. One of the more common win totals is 51, and using a 7 game buffer in either direction would give us a range of 44 to 58 wins.

If we can maintain this defense we are going to crush expectations.

Jonathan Isaac's 1.4 bpg, 1.0 spg in just 13.7 mpg is ridiculous. Per 36 thats 3.7 block and 2.6 steals

Mo has been so efficient, currently at 70 TS%.

Residual-Heat wrote:Jonathan Isaac's 1.4 bpg, 1.0 spg in just 13.7 mpg is ridiculous. Per 36 thats 3.7 block and 2.6 steals

Mo has been so efficient, currently at 70 TS%.

Yea Isaac almost 10% (9.8) Block % (lead the NBA before last game) & Suggs leads the leaque in Steals %

As comparison, Wemby 7.9 Block %

Franz shooting 29% from 3... He needs to start knocking them down.

Residual-Heat wrote:Franz shooting 29% from 3... He needs to start knocking them down.

He will get hot again.

He shot about 20% if you combine the 11 games from October and April last year. We're all waiting for the leap but it will happen eventually.

We went 5-0 and jumped 5 spots! Bucks get back into the top 4 where they belong. Cavs continue to underwhelm in the sim. Bulls are squarely in the tanking tier, while the Raptors are weakest amongst the play-in bubble teams. Basketball Reference projections based on 1,000 simulations of the regular season.

East
1. Celtics ❯
2. 76ers ❯
3. Knicks ❯
4. Bucks ▲4
5. Magic ▲5
6. Heat ▲3
___________
7. Hawks ▼2
8. Pacers ▼4
9. Cavs ▼2
10. Nets ▼4
___________
11. Raptors ❯
12. Bulls ❯
13. Hornets ▲1
14. Pistons ▲1
15. Wizards ▼2

BULLY BALL MASTERS

The Orlando Magic are currently No. 1 in the NBA in field goal attempts at the rim and No. 1 in the NBA in free throw rate.

Knightro wrote:BULLY BALL MASTERS

The Orlando Magic are currently No. 1 in the NBA in field goal attempts at the rim and No. 1 in the NBA in free throw rate.

I saw youtuber mention that we remind him of the Grindhouse Grizzlies or the Grit and Grind Grizzlies, I forget which nickname they used, with Zach Randolph and Tony Allen, etc. That's really stuck with me. I can see it.

Knightro wrote:BULLY BALL MASTERS

The Orlando Magic are currently No. 1 in the NBA in field goal attempts at the rim and No. 1 in the NBA in free throw rate.

Think about the Vuc/Evan years were we couldn’t get in the paint and set the lowest FT attempt rate in league history to this….it’s beautiful and why I believe we will contend for titles eventually.

Knightro wrote:BULLY BALL MASTERS

The Orlando Magic are currently No. 1 in the NBA in field goal attempts at the rim and No. 1 in the NBA in free throw rate.

This is great, but it's a bit concerning that despite this and that we are doing great on the offensive boards we are still only 21st in offensive efficiency. Hopefully we will be able improve our outside shooting from now on while remaining among the top teams in getting to the rim, drawing fouls and getting offensive boards.

Knightro wrote:BULLY BALL MASTERS

The Orlando Magic are currently No. 1 in the NBA in field goal attempts at the rim and No. 1 in the NBA in free throw rate.

Shots in the restricted area:

Fultz 5 attempts at 72%
Suggs 3.1 attempts at 70%
Paolo 4.9 attempts at 63.5%
Goga 3.9 attempts at 63%
Franz 6.3 attempts at 54.7%
Mo 4.5 attempts at 76.5%
WCJ3 attempts at 60%
Isaac 2.2 attempts at 76%
Black 2 attempts at 69%
Cole 2 attempts at 55%
Harris 1 at 80%

As a team the Magic are 1st in FGAs at the rim with 35.4, but are only about average at finishing (15th in FG%). Franz needs will have to finish better. He's better than that.

They are 1st in FTrate but only 22nd in FT% as a team. . Suggs is shooting it really well at 85%. Franz too. Paolo has been missing too many FTs this year shooting 66%. He's better than that.

In Dean Oliver's book Basketball On Paper he has some tables with expected wins based on streaks.

He says that a team that wins five games in a row has an expected wins of 45.6 and a team that wins 10 games in a row has an expected wins of 55.1.

47-55 wins is a nice win range for this young Orlando Magic team. Really nice.

Even if we are just a .500 team in actuality, we've built ourselves quite the cushion.

After tonight’s win, over our 8 game win streak the Magic now have a top 10 3pt% at 38.4%, making10.8 of 28 attempts.

That’s a big accomplishment for a team that has lacked shooting and only added Ingles for external improvement, and with Franz shooting 29% over that stretch.

Bensational wrote:After tonight’s win, over our 8 game win streak the Magic now have a top 10 3pt% at 38.4%, making10.8 of 28 attempts.

That’s a big accomplishment for a team that has lacked shooting and only added Ingles for external improvement, and with Franz shooting 29% over that stretch.

It's amazing what one game shooting 63% with the longball can do to a seasonal average.

Bensational wrote:After tonight’s win, over our 8 game win streak the Magic now have a top 10 3pt% at 38.4%, making10.8 of 28 attempts.

That’s a big accomplishment for a team that has lacked shooting and only added Ingles for external improvement, and with Franz shooting 29% over that stretch.

Franz is working on eliminating the "dip to the hip" in his prior shooting form. I guess its just taking time. A lot of his shots are coming out flat now that hes pulling the ball directly up from the catch point. Work in progress.

A couple reflections on the below:


1) At no point this season has the Magic had a losing record
2) Orlando is exactly at where the team has had its historic drop offs. Games 20-50 have been horrible for Orlando these last ~10 years. Time to step up. Even a 40% winning rate these next 20 would show that this team has grown.
2b) not that last year the Magic really stumbled for about 10 games.

drsd wrote:A couple reflections on the below:


1) At no point this season has the Magic had a losing record
2) Orlando is exactly at where the team has had its historic drop offs. Games 20-50 have been horrible for Orlando these last ~10 years. Time to step up. Even a 40% winning rate these next 20 would show that this team has grown.
2b) not that last year the Magic really stumbled for about 10 games.

Please send this to Mose.

drsd wrote:A couple reflections on the below:


1) At no point this season has the Magic had a losing record
2) Orlando is exactly at where the team has had its historic drop offs. Games 20-50 have been horrible for Orlando these last ~10 years. Time to step up. Even a 40% winning rate these next 20 would show that this team has grown.
2b) not that last year the Magic really stumbled for about 10 games.

Granted its not playoff game important. It is just very important to get the next win of the back to back against a team that yes, every team in the NBA should be win. Before the next 5 where its possible to lose all 5.

It's interesting how slow ESPNs BPI is to update. It sees us now as a .500 team the rest of the way. Which does reflect that it sees us as a better team than anticipated.