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Hollinger's Playoff Odds

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Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#1 » by BassMaster » Thu Nov 20, 2008 1:38 pm

Now remember everyone don't get into a fit these odds keep on changing as it is updated every day. I noticed over at the O-Zone they are in an uproar though why I don't know. I think that most of them are not reading them right.
Here is what they are saying over there:
http://www.nba.com/magic/news/Postgame_ ... 74-66.html

And here is the link to Hollingers Odds Making Machine (that's what I call it lol)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#2 » by Magicalltheway » Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:05 pm

LOL, I think my 6yr old daughter can do a better job of predicting the playoffs and I bet she wont have a 36game margin of error. :lol:
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#3 » by BassMaster » Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:30 pm

Magicalltheway wrote:LOL, I think my 6yr old daughter can do a better job of predicting the playoffs and I bet she wont have a 36game margin of error. :lol:


And yet for the last three year's Hollinger has gotten it right. That's right Hollinger's system got it right three years in a row.
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#4 » by glennathan » Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:26 pm

If read this really carefully I found two very surprising parts in here. It said that the best season for the Cavs and the Lakers are 73-9 (Cavs) and 77-5 (Lakers). That means that according to the system used that both teams on their best season possible at this point would break the record of the amazing 95-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10), Does anyone else think that this is a record that will not be broken?

As far as the magic standings with the way they have been playing I would almost say it is right on or very close. The Magic give up alot of points and have given up some losses that should not have happened (grizzlies and Portland). However I will always hope for the best season possible and I really would like to see the best season on here (64-18) because it would be the most wins in a season for the team and just be freaking awesome to have that record with the bench.
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#5 » by Edrock » Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:45 pm

Hollinger's stuff is all based on sample size, so his "predictor" becomes more & more accurate as the season goes along. Considering how early it is in the season, I'd expect a lot of movement between now & the playoffs. This does seem to be pretty interesting & valid after the all-star break though.
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#6 » by silent4418 » Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:59 pm

Only two things stick out at me:

1) Spurs - If I could find someone to give me 4-1 on the Spurs finding a way to get in, I would take that ALL DAY.

2) Knicks - LOL...the world is saying to them "We see right through you....you still suck."
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#7 » by BassMaster » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:14 pm

silent4418 wrote:Only two things stick out at me:

1) Spurs - If I could find someone to give me 4-1 on the Spurs finding a way to get in, I would take that ALL DAY.

2) Knicks - LOL...the world is saying to them "We see right through you....you still suck."


Remember right now it's really early in the season so the numbers are going to change a lot, but as another poster has already said after the All Star break everything will be clearer under Hollingers System.
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#8 » by MagicHorse » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:37 pm

John Hollinger is a fool and an ****... WHen will he give the magic the respect they deserve?
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#9 » by mhectorgato » Thu Nov 20, 2008 4:41 pm

MagicHorse wrote:John Hollinger is a fool and an ****...

That may be ... however

MagicHorse wrote: WHen will he give the magic the respect they deserve?


Respect is not, not sure how it could be, a factor in his formula.

From a link within cougar's link:
We have a computer at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn., that automatically plays out the rest of the season every night -- not once, but 5,000 times. And we can see from those 5,000 trials how many times a certain outcome resulted, then assign a probability from it. For example, if the Blazers make the playoffs in 2,500 of our trials, we say their odds of making the playoffs are 2,500 divided by 5,000, or 50 percent.


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... tor-081119
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#10 » by BassMaster » Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:09 pm

mhectorgato wrote:
MagicHorse wrote:John Hollinger is a fool and an ****...

That may be ... however

MagicHorse wrote: WHen will he give the magic the respect they deserve?


Respect is not, not sure how it could be, a factor in his formula.

From a link within cougar's link:
We have a computer at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Conn., that automatically plays out the rest of the season every night -- not once, but 5,000 times. And we can see from those 5,000 trials how many times a certain outcome resulted, then assign a probability from it. For example, if the Blazers make the playoffs in 2,500 of our trials, we say their odds of making the playoffs are 2,500 divided by 5,000, or 50 percent.


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... tor-081119

thanks for the link:

As always, the output of a product is only as good as its input, so let's explain a little about how this is derived. The computer starts with the day's Hollinger power rankings. Then, in each of the 5,000 times it replays the season, it makes a random adjustment up or down to allow for the possibility that a team will play better or worse than it has done thus far. (I call this the Anti-Dennis Green Postulate; i.e., maybe they aren't who we thought they were.)

Additionally, the results regress to the mean. This is more important early in the season, and what it essentially means is that even though a team might start 10-0, it's not necessarily bound to go 82-0. The effect of this will reduce sharply after the first quarter of the season or so, but in the early going of most seasons, it's necessary to prevent us from projecting 77-win seasons and the like. (Not this year, though; more on that in a minute).


But a little further down, a whopping 12 teams -- nearly half the league -- project to win between 43 and 49 games. Realistically, a few of those will hop over the 50-win mark, and a few others will climb down toward .500. The problem is that with the exception of the Lakers, Cavs and Celtics, the league's cream hasn't really risen yet.

More explanations about the Hollinger system.
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#11 » by Last Guardian » Thu Nov 20, 2008 5:52 pm

I am really confused right now. What is to be so upset about? Those rankings look pretty good to me.......
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#12 » by Diehardmagicfan » Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:17 pm

Cleveland going 73-9 doubt it
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#13 » by BassMaster » Thu Nov 20, 2008 9:48 pm

Diehardmagicfan wrote:Cleveland going 73-9 doubt it


It was explained that it is still to early in the season to know how teams will do. When you really need to follow this system is after the All Star break that is when the numbers really start to show how good some teams are compared to others.
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Re: Hollinger's Playoff Odds 

Post#14 » by TheGlyde » Thu Nov 20, 2008 11:16 pm

cougar13 wrote:
Magicalltheway wrote:LOL, I think my 6yr old daughter can do a better job of predicting the playoffs and I bet she wont have a 36game margin of error. :lol:


And yet for the last three year's Hollinger has gotten it right. That's right Hollinger's system got it right three years in a row.


If the odds are updated at the end of each game across the season, it would be hard not to get the odds right after 81 games.
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