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My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open letter pt. 2)

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Post#1 My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open lett
Wed Jun 2, 2010 11:54 pm by tk76

(Part 1 of the open letter was written before the Lottery: viewtopic.php?f=26&t=1007143 )

B.K. had the first 3 year plan for a "Sixers culture change." He let AI and CWebb expire and tried to clear space for a rebuild and FA. He traded for Miller to keep the team from falling apart. BK was fired, so he gets an incomplete.

Stefanski had his own plan. He aggressively shed more cap space. Then he committed 5-6 yrs and 185M to Brand/Iguodala/Lou alongside Miller and a young supporting cast in the attempt to win right away while keeping a young core for long term success. But his results have been uneven at best and was basically doomed by Brand's decline.
....

This is my 3 year plan- one that could yield both short and long term success but requires patience. It takes into account the Sixers are under the burden of Brand/Iguodala using up 60% of the cap for the next 3 years. The new CBA could make things even more challenging financially. Also, there are several young players who are a few years away from either reaching their potential or disappointing- and its unclear how well they will pan out.

On the flip side, that means in 3-4 years there will be a great opportunity to have a big shake-up when Brand and Iguodala come off the books- but that is a while off. I'd like to see them try and win as best they can now... but without putting their long term chances in jeopardy.

1. Try and win now: The best way to win (despite having a big ticket bust like Brand) is to have a rookie-scale star who is worthy of a huge contract to offset your sunk cost. Recent examples include Deron who offset AK47(15M) and Dwight who offset Rashard(17M). Both are no longer on the rookie scale, but for a while they were essentially worthy of the big contract, allowing the teams cap situation to attain balance (because the overpaid teammate was is essence worth what the lottery rookie was making.)

-So draft Turner. Not just because he is the BPA- but also he could be a star right away. If he in essence gives you star performance worthy of Brands contract then Brand only has to give rookie scale performance to bring their combined cost into balance.

2. Don't take on any new contracts beyond 3 years and do not sell low on your young players. This way you have tons of flexibility when Brand/Lou come off the books. This requires extreme discipline. Instead of taking the 20M coming off the books (Sam/WG/Kapono) and flipping it for another "name" player with a 5 year contract, bide your time and learn what this team has. Also resist the temptation to trade someone like Thad or Speights for a low upside vet who helps you win a few games through toughness or vet savvy. (I really doubt Stefanski has the patience or security to show this type of patience.)

-In 3 years we will know what type of players Turner, Jrue, Thad and Speights are. We can then make an informed decision on what to do with the financial flexibility that will come from Brand's big expiring contract.

-So if in 2-3 years your core of Turner/Jrue/Thad/Speights/Iguodala/Lou are playing at a high level (say 50 wins) then you make an aggressive move to contend. You will have valuable young players and Brand's huge expiring. That should put the team in the drivers seat to sign or trade for a premier vet star and make a run as a contender.

-But if in 3 years the young players disappoint the team will be in perfect position to make wholesale changes. Players will be either be trade-able because they are young/cheap or at the end of their big contracts. So if the team is not good you can switch change gears and rebuild without the burden of bloated vet contracts (like Brand is now.)

----

In contrast these are the things the team should not do:

-Trade current young players for low upside vets or "tough guys" to kick start short term winning.
-Take on other teams bad long term contracts like Ben Gordon. Nothing past Brand's 3 years.
-Trade out of the chance for a superstar at #2 for long term cap relief.
-Go with a raw prospect (Favors) and dump Iguodala in the attempt to further bottom out (although this approach could be argued if you were down on Turner.)
-Start making compromises for short term fit.
-Sell low on young players like Thad or Speights this summer.
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Post#2 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 12:33 am by Kobblehead

IMO, the Thad Young situation reads like this:

- The guy hasn't developed at a rate he probably should have.
- His weaknesses haven't been strengthened.
- He still has yet to establish a primary position in the NBA.
- His rookie contract is coming up and your decision will be upon you.

I think the lack of progress in Thad's development kinda takes the decision out of the Sixers' hands. He hasn't shown a good enough reason to extend him beyond his rookie contract. He's too good of a kid and has too much of a perceived upside to let walk for nothing.

So in essence, selling low on Thad is really their only choice.
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Post#3 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 12:37 am by F-Stop

Good strong post
Problem is Stefanski.. He hired Collins. Collins is not here to be patient. Collins will not stand for the sixers to be patient and like you said Stef's job is on the line.

If we don't sell low we are talking about sticking with what we have. Drafting Turner gives us a player that slows down the learning curve of Thad & Speights. This team is a 40-win team the way it is constructed with no 3pt shooters and no low-post threat. Draft Cousins who will provide the team with an additional option on offense and will allow the 3pt shooters to get off the bench.

I agree with not taking on any huge contracts for the next 3 years.

I believe the 76ers are in decent shape with the roster they have now. I think a low post threat is the missing piece along with the growth of Jrue-Thad-Meeks-Speights.
The 76ers up til the acquisition of Meeks had no way to stretch the floor. This let teams pack it in and force jumpshots. Without the jumpshot aspect it has made Brand's job much harder as well. The low-post will give Jrue 3 layers of offense to work with, Taking the SG @ #2 will give Brand no relief through the 3pt stretch option. He will be on the floor and they will be benched. I think your rookie scale star will be Jrue if he has the tools around him.
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Post#4 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 12:46 am by Kobblehead

F-Stop, did you see Collins' presser? He spoke a little bit about patience and how quick fixes will not be sought out. Also, I think Jodie Meeks and Jason Kapono are going to form quite the bench mob of perimeter assassins this year. Call it a hunch.
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Post#5 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 1:48 am by F-Stop

Kobblehead wrote:F-Stop, did you see Collins' presser? He spoke a little bit about patience and how quick fixes will not be sought out. Also, I think Jodie Meeks and Jason Kapono are going to form quite the bench mob of perimeter assassins this year. Call it a hunch.


I saw it and don't believe a word of it.
Collins is not a young man and has had several teams throughout his career. I don"t think he takes this team as a developer of talent.
If you take Turner and give him 30mins - Iggy gets 36min - Kapono Meeks Lou Carney 30mins and that is without Thad playing a minute at the 3 position. There is no time left for the bench to do there thing.
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Post#6 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 4:32 am by bedjaw

Well thought out...I can't say I agree with everything but I can't say it is unreasonable. I don't want to flat out say don't turn SD/JK/WG expirings into another player. If the right player ia available I say go get him. But your right they have to sign the right player. I'm not sure who that is for I thought EB was the right player. If there is a young impact player available who will fit nicely into this rebuild I say they have to go after that player. Good example though of Ben Gordan not being that player. I also don't want them to spend/trade just because they can. I also think Thad Young has defined his position/role and I'm not up to letting him walk or trade "low". I think he is a 6th Man PF. Just lie I think LWill is a 6th man combo guard. Both can excell in those type of roles and add depth to our bench. I'm not sure I want to do much this summer unless they can turn their expirings into an impact player. I am interested to see how these guys react under Collins. I think they get a pass for last year...although quitting regardless of the situation says something about soem of our players. I want to see how the react to a strong NBA coach which is what Doug Collins is. If they fail now it is on the players.
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Post#7 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 5:16 am by Foshan

Good post, some things I agree, couple things I don't. In a way I agree on not giving up on thad, because i think he still has a lot of potential, however even if he were to reach his potential, IMO he's still not a great fit with Jrue/Turner/Iggy. If i can move him for Henry (where ever he goes) I don't see that as selling low. Henry has about the same potential, imo, but he's a better fit positionally.

I'd also be all for moving LWill for expirings (TPE?) and late picks (Mem deal), because when Dally/Green/Kapono come off, I want to have money to throw at Gasol. To do that, we'd need to not have Thad's cap hold and no LWill.

I think with those types of moves we still improve with Collins now, but make a huge leap next year with a legit C in Gasol.
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Post#8 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 5:47 am by philly262

My 3 year plan really is pretty similar except I trade Thad and or Speights/Lou.

First I draft Turner.

Second I do the Memphis trade....
Thad and Lou for 12,25,28, except I open it up to the Clippers.

Memphis gets Lou and Thad
Clippers get 12 and 25
Sixers get 8 and 28.

Hopefully Cousins falls to 8, or at least Aldrich will be there at 8, so choose between those two.
And then at 28 we get a backup sf or sg, someone like Pointdexter, Bradley, Warren or somebody like that.

Trading Thad and Lou for picks, saves us 1-2 milllion dollars in team salary next year, probably having us at 63-64 million.

Then the following since we don't have Thad's cap hold and Lou Williams 5 million on the books, the Sixers will have around 11 million in cap space, according to today's salary cap. If there's a new CBA that number might change.

With a guys like Horford and Noah they might be RFA's that year, and a guy like Horford might be the final piece for our young guys. If not we still have the cap space to make a trade and include a guy like Speights for another big, or resign Speights to an extension.

Then in two years after that we have Brand expring, and Iguodala with one year left, both of those guys could be used in a trade to get us more pieces, of they could just be expirings, giving us more flexiblity for trades and free agent signings.


But it all depends on trading Thad and Lou for 8 and 28.
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Post#9 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 9:37 am by HartfordWhalers

Too much to quote, but taking tk's plan, there are a few questions/alternatives I think that should be consider.
2011 Cap space: When Dalembert/Willie/Kapono all come off the books we will have some. We will not have max. Our options then are basically:

1) We let them expire, sign a 9 million player in 2011.
2) We let them expire, sign short term contracts and/or league min vets, and have max cap space in 2013.
3) We trade our expirings for an overpaid vet with many years left; we will not have max when Brand alone comes off the books (we might when Iggy then does, but at that point who knows what the cap structure is). An overpaid vet doesn't seem to fit this teams likely contending window, but makes us more competitive now, especially compared with option 2.
4) We trade them for an overpaid vet which ends in 2013 (or before). We don't effect our 2013 cap room, and hopefully can pick up an asset for helping someone else get cap room 1 year early. An example would be something like Kapono and Green (10.7 expiring) for Kirk Hinrich (9 million and then 8 million) and they throw in 2011 1st or similar for renting our cap space for one year.

I hope 3 isn't considered. 4 is basically option 2, but buying a pick/young talent. Since its not my money, I like this much better.
But is it worth making a move on a free agent in 2011, or holding tight all the way until 2013?
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Post#10 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 10:11 am by tk76

You guys bring up some tough issues- specifically what to do about Thad and how to replace Sam at C. Also Speights will be up for a contract in 2 years.

In terms of resigning Thad (and Speights) at least they have not played themselves into a huge deal. I assume they would be re-signed for 5-7M contracts (a bit more than Lou) which IMO would be fine. Its always easy to trade productive young players with <8M contracts. Even an overpaid guy like Diaw has been easy to move.

As for C, that is really tough. I think the team needs to find a cheap solution. Maybe use the cap space in 2011 for a vet on a 2 year deal. Then hopefully the 2011 #1 pick will develop into a starting center by 2013. But either way, the team is i a tough spot at the C position. My plan is a blue-print, but its not written in stone. And if a true superstar (like say Bosh or Howard) hit the trade market before again 2013 you would have to consider it.

They main point is that this team has a ton of variables, and we will know better what we have in a year or two. I would hate to over-reach based on projections of the current young players and be stuck again with a mediocre team saddled by long term mega-deals.
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Post#11 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 11:13 am by sem3376

A lot of good point but it is very important that the sixers draft turner who makes other players around him better and plays a high bball iq game and not cousins who does not even make hisself better (waste)
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Post#12 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 11:31 am by ExplosionsInDaSky

If it's a three year plan in place I not only have a goal of whom to draft or trade for I have a goal of who I want to get rid of as well. Following past winning teams blueprints is a mistake in my opinion. I think we form our own.
Moving forward my mainstays are
Jrue/?
Turner/Meeks - I think Meeks is a keeper and is going to be a nice sixth/seventh man off the bench
Iguodala/Kapono
Brand/Speights
Dalembert/Smith

I can see Williams and Young being shipped and if so I do it for draft picks.
It would be nice to see Aldrich and a backup point guard like Kyle Lowry here in place of Williams and Young.

Jrue/Lowry
Turner/Meeks
Iguodala/Kapono
Brand/Speights
Dalembert/Aldrich

It would be nice to see that team going into the 10-11 season.
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Post#13 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 1:36 pm by radrmd216

philly262 wrote:My 3 year plan really is pretty similar except I trade Thad and or Speights/Lou.

First I draft Turner.

Second I do the Memphis trade....
Thad and Lou for 12,25,28, except I open it up to the Clippers.

Memphis gets Lou and Thad
Clippers get 12 and 25
Sixers get 8 and 28.


The Clippers could get Thad in that deal and still might not accept.
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Post#14 Re: My 3 Year Plan for Sixers/Draft/FA (open
Thu Jun 3, 2010 1:39 pm by radrmd216

The way the Sixers really could contend in a few years would be to unload Iggy and get a top big man prospect with a top 6, preferably top 3 pick. That seems like it won't happen in the foreseeable future. The other teams either got a legit franchise player (Dwight, Durant, Lebron) or got a few high lottery picks.
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