Official College Basketball / 2011 NBA Draft Thread

[freshie2]

In this draft, it would seem a trade up could happen and he'd be 'get-able'. Not sure he's the savior, but at this point I'd prefer him to Speights coming off the bench. Remember how unstoppable he looked as a scorer early in his career...what has happened???

[Point-God]

These are the players that interest me the most for the Sixers.

SF Derrick Williams
C Bismack Biyombo
C Lucas Nogueira
PG/SG Alec Burks
PF Kenneth Faried
SG Klay Thompson
C Jeremy Tyler
PF JaJuan Johnson
SG Jon Diebler

I'd be happy seeing a couple of those guys in a Sixers uniform next season.

[HotSauce77]

I find if odd that people want a guy whom they've never seen play who is a 6-9 center and who is probably 3-4 years older than his listed age and who puts up 6 points a game for a bad team in Spain. Some people compare his potential to Ben Wallace. Some compared Nikolaz Tsakitshvilli to Larry Bird. Maybe this kid does turn into Ben Wallace, but Ben was an unrestricted free agent who bounced around quite a bit. This kid will be a lottery pick with a guaranteed contract and there is very little indication he can even stay on the court in the NBA. He has no offensive game to speak off and doesn't know or understand the game much. He might foul out in 10 minutes of every game and he might already be 22 and not the 18 he claims he is. His Spanish team cut his contract without seeking any buyout supposedly and that also raises questions.

[Foshan]

lol this draft is starting to look like a real drag...

[tk76]

I find if odd that people want a guy whom they've never seen play who is a 6-9 center and who is probably 3-4 years older than his listed age and who puts up 6 points a game for a bad team in Spain.

You might find it less odd if you looked at:

1. The "known quantities" who are in this draft.
2. The odds of getting a player at #16 in this watered down draft who could eventually be in impact player at a position of (immensely important) need.
3. The concept of bone age or the history of Mutumbo who people always thought was 5 years older than his stated age. The guy is 20 at most if his bone age was 16 2 years ago.
4. The rare physical tools and motor this kid has- and how it translated against top HS prospects who would be top 5 picks if available in this draft,
5. The 7pt, 4pts, 1 blks Ibaka averaged in the ACB league before being drafted- who had more international experience. Bismak leading the same league in blocks/game and per/min rebounding is amazing given his lack of experience. He did not do that against kids, but experienced professionals.

The Sixers must draft a big. And if your choice at #16 is between a guy who is 70% bust, 15% defensive specialist, 15% defensive stud (Bismack) vs a known quantity who is 35% bust, 63% role player, 2% defensive stud... give me the home run swing every time.

If it comes down to 3 or 4 prospect bigs on the board at #16 you can take Faried, Jordan Williams or Trey Thompkins. I'll takes the unknown guy who is a chiseled athlete with a 7'7 wingspan, has good rebounding and shot blocking instincts and a high motor as established in a league better than the NCAA, who has questions about his age. And I don't care if he never takes a jumper outside of 12 feet.

Its like saying the Magic should never have drafted Dwight Howard because he was a raw HS kid with no offensive game... and Okafor was a known quantity. Except it would be much less risky for the Sixers, because any pick at #16 is more likely than not to fail.

[dbodner]

I find if odd that people want a guy whom they've never seen play who is a 6-9 center and who is probably 3-4 years older than his listed age and who puts up 6 points a game for a bad team in Spain. Some people compare his potential to Ben Wallace. Some compared Nikolaz Tsakitshvilli to Larry Bird. Maybe this kid does turn into Ben Wallace, but Ben was an unrestricted free agent who bounced around quite a bit. This kid will be a lottery pick with a guaranteed contract and there is very little indication he can even stay on the court in the NBA. He has no offensive game to speak off and doesn't know or understand the game much. He might foul out in 10 minutes of every game and he might already be 22 and not the 18 he claims he is. His Spanish team cut his contract without seeking any buyout supposedly and that also raises questions.

1) I've heard from more than 1 person that they're confident on Biyombo's age.
2) they're not a bad spanish team. They're a midpack team in a very good league.
3) Looking solely at stats, particularly for an 18 year old kid playing against high competition, isn't exactly the best way to go about scouting.
4) His club didn't cut his contract, he terminated his contract because they're financially unable to play him.
5) I have watched him play.

[HotSauce77]

And he's projected top 10, not 16, so we would have to give up serious assets to give up for a kid who is 3-4 years away in the best case scenario, which is the point of the comment. Taking a late to mid first round flyer on a guy is one thing and trading known quantities for a lottery pick to get him is another. He'll likely cost you Turner. Right now ESPN Insider has him 8th. and unless you live in Spain, you've seen an all-star game or highlights, which isn't exactly the same as watching the kid in meaningful games. If you're ready to trade Turner for him, fine, but it's still odd given that there is little known about him. He hasn't played Euroleague and ESPN recently reported on questions about his age. If that has been sorted out, great. That will mean he'll go even higher and cost even more. It's one thing drafting Serge Ibaka at the bottom of the first and another in the lottery after trading for the pick. That was my point.

[HotSauce77]

Correction, ESPN projects him going 7th to Detroit.

[Point-God]

and unless you live in Spain, you've seen an all-star game or highlights, which isn't exactly the same as watching the kid in meaningful games.

I have one of his Spanish games on my computer and access to many more of them. Most professional basketball games are available online somewhere in 2011.

[HotSauce77]

I appreciate that you can get Internet feeds and that some people might have seen him play once or twice. Vast majority have not. Most NBA GMs even have not, although I'm sure scouts have. So unless a poster really has nothing better to do or is an NBA scout, the knowledge of the guy is based on some fairly recent articles and not watching him play. But that's not even the point - the point that he would be an enormous risk and a guy who won't be ready to seriously cobtribute for several years, if ever. Given what it would cost to get him, my only point was it's ironic people who haven't likely seen him play much if at all, would be willing to mortgage our future for him and this shows how weak this draft is. And there are still rumors floating that he is 20, although in fairness also some that he's 16 or 17. No one will ever know for sure before the draft, but it can never be eliminated as a potential concern.

[tk76]

It would be pretty hard to "fake a bone age." It would involve finding another wrist XR done on a 16 year old who has hands the same size as Bismack (which I assume are not normal sized.) If you were really skeptical you can compare it to a current XR and have someone forensically check if it is a match.

So assume the XR is genuine... it means that 2 years ago his body developmentally was that of a 16 year old. That means he won't get much taller, but he will get broader. It also means that odds are he is not much older than his stated age, although it is not 100%, because there are very late bloomers whose bone ages are several years behind their chronological age. But safe to say, you are not talking a 23 year old beating up on 18 year old prospects.

In terms of what you give up... jumping from 16 to 11 should not mean giving up the farm. They moved up from 16 to 13 to get Carney and all it cost them was a future 2nd round pick. But if he does end up in the top 8 then he's probably not easily get-able. There are some media that project him top ten... but I have also read that actual team scouts are not yet on-board with him as a lock to go in the lottery.

[MarJJMar]

Biyombo will be in the top 10 easily. Most likely top 7 for any team that is convinced about his age.

And tbh, you look at him he looks that young. Greg Oden and Lebron James looked twice as old.

[Kobblehead]

I'm with Hotsauce. Whenever a player comes out of nowhere to rise up to the top 10, that has bust written all over it. He has a big wingspan and decent athleticism. That's all fine and good but the kid has played basketball for like 3 years of his life and only 1 at a high level. What makes people think he has the discipline to be out on the floor? I'm predicting Sene all over again.

[dbodner]

I'm with Hotsauce. Whenever a player comes out of nowhere to rise up to the top 10, that has bust written all over it. He has a big wingspan and decent athleticism. That's all fine and good but the kid has played basketball for like 3 years of his life and only 1 at a high level. What makes people think he has the discipline to be out on the floor? I'm predicting Sene all over again.

First, he's not the first player to pick up basketball late in life to develop into something. Tim Duncan picked it up late, as did Olajuwon, as did Mutombo. Granted, they all went to college, and all stayed 3-4 years, so they have 2 more years of data to go on than we have on Biyombo. But it is possible to pick up basketball late and develop into a fundamentally sound player. Again, we have less data on Biyombo, but that's not to say he can't develop if he has the work ethic.

Second, there's a lot different about Sene, which I've stated before and won't rehash.

I've learned not to disregard any prospect. Interviews and private workouts will be key for him.

[tk76]

I'm predicting Sene all over again.

I agree that he has high bust potential. And he will probably be picked higher than normal because the current draft is so watered down. But on the flip side, it will be much easier to get a higher pick in this draft because a bunch of teams will want to trade out of it in exchange for a future 1st. I've never seen a draft being so talked down like this year's.

So even though there is clearly bust potential- I still see it as much less than Sene because the personalities (on and off the floor) are different. Look back at the guys that have been busts. Even look at a guy like Hawes. In most cases the bigs who are busts have question marks about their aggression level on the floor and their personal drive as a player off the court. While everything I have read and the interviews I've watched all suggest this guy attacks the game and his profession like Mutombo or Zo. He wants to dominate and embarrass people. He also is very comfortable in the media spotlight and changing cultures. You add those things to natural defensive ability and instincts and you have a good chance of developing into an impact NBA defender.

Obviously there is a huge risk involved and no one really knows this guy as much as they would like. But look at the reasons a guy would be a bust. Reasons like lack of drive, culture shock/passivity, lack of aggressive nature on the floor, being in love with jump shots, lack of real physical tools, lack of track record against high level competition... Look at all of those areas and there is reason to believe that Bismack is unlikely to fail for any of those reasons.

[Kobblehead]

I think part of the intrigue about him is that he's less accessible so people can bloat their expectations. If Biyombo went to college, I'd imagine we'd see numbers similar to Varnado. What makes people think he's more likely to make an impact than Varnado was?

[HotSauce77]

It's important to note that his agent claims to have the x-rays but no one has seen them. Why would he take them in the first place is another question. For all we know, this kid might very well turn into a stud. I certainly have no clue - never seen him play. My only comment was given that he's being projected 7th the risk is terribly high and also this shows how poor this draft class is. Irving, who seems good not great and missed most of the year, and Williams, who seems to be a Jamison type tweener are the top 2. Everyone else seems even less impressive. This draft is short on both talent and superstar potential.

[dbodner]

I think part of the intrigue about him is that he's less accessible so people can bloat their expectations. If Biyombo went to college, I'd imagine we'd see numbers similar to Varnado. What makes people think he's more likely to make an impact than Varnado was?

Why do you keep comparing him to players he's nothing remotely like ? Varnado was a twig who couldn't defend post scorers and didn't have the lateral mobility to defend stretch 4's. Biyombo, at 18, is much stronger both in lower and upper body strength and projects to be a legit post defender.

Outside of all being shot blockers, Varnado, Sene, and Biyombo share very little similarities in their game.

Obviously, there's considerable risk, as there are in any 18 year old big men. You're projecting a lot, and his mental makeup is the key component on whether he lives up to that. But from a physical and game standpoint, these players aren't all that similar.

[Kobblehead]

Why do you keep comparing him to players he's nothing remotely like ?

Outside of all being shot blockers, Varnado, Sene, and Biyombo share very little similarities in their game.

That's the whole point. Shotblocking is the only valuable trait out of all three players.

Does Biyombo have back to the basket skills? Range? Face up game?

No. Just like those two, he's expected to be a pogo stick-esch shotblocker.

[dbodner]

Why do you keep comparing him to players he's nothing remotely like ?

Outside of all being shot blockers, Varnado, Sene, and Biyombo share very little similarities in their game.

That's the whole point. Shotblocking is the only valuable trait out of all three players.

Does Biyombo have back to the basket skills? Range? Face up game?

No. Just like those two, he's expected to be a pogo stick-esch shotblocker.

Again, that's not the point. Biyombo projects to be a much better post defender than either of those two. Take away one of both of those players primary weaknesses and you don't have the same prospect. He's not "stick-esch".

Classifying anyone raw, athletic shotblocker into the same category of failure isn't exactly the best way to go about scouting. That same line of thinking would have cast aside Ibaka, who was a raw 19 year old shotblocker with 1 year of Euro ball experience.

Many young bigs have come into the league raw with physical tools. Many pan out, many don't. Disregarding a player you've never seen doesn't exactly seem the most prudent way to form an opinion. But hey, if that's how you want to roll, by all means do so.