Draft Rankings..Feedback wanted!

[Koorverfor3]

Hey guys starting a sports blog for my College portfolio was going to do a player ranking for the 2014 draft how I see the top 30 in my eyes, wanted some of your thoughts, opinions and criticism.

Basically I like to rank players off potential.
Every year you see teams kicking themselves for passing over guys like Paul George, Drummond, and Gannis for more "polished prospects" like Evan Turner, Thomas Robinson or Trey Burke.
I think in the draft picking projected role players Inside the the lottery is a recipe for disaster. Those are guys that are available every year in free agency to fill out your roster with..for example when evaluating the undersized combo guard like Trey Burke coming out of school you can always grab a guy like Jerryd Bayless or Nate Robinson. For every savvy point guard who lacks elite skills but has the "intangibles" like Shane Larkin, or Eric Maynor you can go after a vet like Andre Miller or Kirk Hinrich. For every skilled finess big man who lacks toughness, but has offensive intrigue such as Kelly Olynyk or Meyers Leonard, you can sign a stop gap like Spencer Hawes or Chris Kamen and you know what you are getting..
My opinion...save those guys for the bottom 10 picks of the round or 2nd round. That way its great if you can get a Chuck Hayes, or Nate Wolters level contributor without risking passing on a quality 50million dollar potential player.

Players are marked with a !! If they have undeniable character or motivational questions about them reaching their ceiling, and possible making them more likely to bust

Players are marked with a ** If they have outstanding character that will get the most out of their ability. These are guys who baring injury will avoid the worst case scenario and push for the Ceiling 4/5 times.


Tier 1
Players who can be considered for Multiple All star appearances as well as possible ALL NBA Teams. If they play to their potential they should receive a Max deal at some point of their career.

1. Joel Embiid

Ceiling - Olajuwon Lite (26ppg, 12 rebs, 3 blocks)
Likely - Jermain O'neal (21ppg, 10 rebs, 2.8 blocks)
Worst - Greg Oden (Injury Prone)

Take away the Back injury and he's the hands down number one pick. He's a once in a 5 year type player who comes around and can impact the game significantly on Offense and Defense. He impacted the game on nearly every possession at Kansas. He is going to need to bulk up a bit to handle the rigors of an NBA season and will have to be coached up a bit like anybody playing the game for 4 years. Only question is his health

2. Andrew Wiggins

Ceiling - Paul George (22pp, 7rebs, Elite Defense)
Likely - 2014 Demar Derozan (20ppg, 5rebs, 3 assists)
Worst - Gerald Green (15ppg, 3 rebs, 2 assists)

Based on his physical gifts alone he should be able to challenge for 18-20 points in his prime. His outside shot is nowhere as near as bad as Derozan's was coming out of school. He should at the least be a premier defensive wing player in the mold of Jimmy Butler and Kawai Leonard. That is why I deem him a safe pick. Despite what websites publish about him having "bust potential." The Tracy Mcgrady and Scottie Pippen comparisons are unfair. They were two of the best ballhandling small forwards in NBA history, and that is Wiggins biggest weakness at this point. Paul George struggled creating his own shot for his first few years, so I have hope to believe Wiggins can do the same. Regardless of whether he will ever be a consistant shooter, he will score at an efficient rate much like Derozan if he is able to get to the Free throw line at will.

3. Dante Exum

Ceiling - Penny Hardaway (21ppg, 7 assists, 5 rebs)
Likely - MC Williams prime (18ppg, 7 assists, 5 rebs
Worst - Shaun Livingston (8ppg, 3 assists, 3 rebs)

He has the first step that rivals Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. The comparisons end their though, as he is not as purely athletic as them. Possesses a tremendous IQ, and feel for the game at a young age. It will take 3 years at least until you will beable to fully appreciate his talent. At that age he will be the same age as MCW during his rookie campaign...thats scary. His defensive awareness needs to improve, but he has the physical tools to become dominant on that side of the ball. He needs to improve his jumper big time.

4. Jabari Parker High Character**

Ceiling - Carmelo Anthony (26ppg, 6 rebs, 3 assists)
Likely - Good Rudy Gay (20ppg, 6 rebs, 3 assists)
Worst - Markief Morris (14ppg, 6 rebs, 2 assists)

Well rounded, polished offensive juggernaut who can score from anywhere on the floor and is fully capable of initiating his own offense that reminds me of a bigger James Harden at time.
Some questions rise with his ability to guard the best Small forwards in the game and I think that is one glaring issue that can hold him back from being in the same breath of guys like Lebron, Durant, George and Melo. Even Carmelo is a terrific isolation defender, but has lapses on rotations and team defense. In Parkers case it will be the opposite. He will squeeze everything he has to get the most out of his talent.


5. Aaron Gordon

Ceiling - Shawn Marion (18ppg, 10 rebs, 2 blocks)
Likely - Kenneth Faried (14ppg, 9 rebs, 1.5 block)
Worst - Tyrus Thomas (10ppg, 6 rebs, 1block)

Like Exum you are going to have to check back in his 3rd season to really appreciate what type of prospect he can become. In that time he will be the same age as Marion's during his rookie season. Marion was never able to shut down 4's like Garnett or Nowitski but he gave tremendous value with his on the ball defense that stretched to the perimeter and his shotblocking. He is a complete project at the offensive end but his defensive versatility and intangibles are so through the roof that they warrant a top 5 pick much like Michael Kidd Gilchrist. He also is the best athlete arguably in the draft. High motor + terrific athlete at the very least will give you good player even if he doesn't reach his all star ceiling.


Tier 2

These are guys who can potentially become complimentary pieces to a Star player and carry an expanded role on a team. Think fringe All stars or guys who quietly get into a few All star games. Or players who get Max Money but aren't necessarily Max players..Gordon Hayward/Bledsoe, ect.

For the future Tiers, This is not set in stone that you should pick Payton at 6 ahead of a guy like Vonleh. More dependent on the team needs. For example if all these guys are on the board for Orlando I pick Payton.
If I'm picking for Sacramento I pick Stauskas over Randle due to fit with Cousins.
Or if your in desperate need of Outside shooting you should pick McDermott over Capella or Warren.

6. Elfrid Payton

Ceiling - Rajon Rondo lite (16ppg, 8 assists, 2 steals)
Likely - Jrue Holiday (14ppg, 8 assists, 1.8 steals) - Elite D
Worst - Shaun Livingston (8pph, 3 assists, 3 rebs ) - Elite D

This guy has the swagger and toughness to defend anyone. While point guard defense isn't as valued as it was in the 90's, what he brings defensing the passing lanes and isolation defense is a huge positive. He also plays within himself and doesn't force shots he can't make, as evident by his 50% field goal percentage. His main question mark is the competition he faced in college. In the NBA he isn't going to be asked to score 18-20 a game, his job will be to facilitate and get his teammates open looks and easy buckets, something he is more than capable of doing at an advanced level. Defenses are going to give him space to shoot and that could cause him to struggle, and that currently is the only thing holding him back from being a top flight PG prospect.

7. Julius Randle *High Intangibles

Ceiling - Paul Millsap (18ppg, 9 rebs)
Likely - Carl Landry 2.0 (15ppg, 9 rebs)
Worst - Derrick Williams (10ppg, 4 rebs)

There is a lot not to like about Randle as an elite prospect. He lacks standout measurables, as big men with short wingspans typically struggle when adjusting to the next level, like Hansborough or Thomas Robinson. He even gets the majority of his points like those players, barreling into an opponent to shotput the ball to the rim. He will never be a marque first option, he showed that as he struggled against the double team and creating for others in general. All that aside this is a guy with a nonstop motor and someone who will strive to reach greatness. He has the athletic ability to blow by any big man guarding him. If he is able to add a jumper to his arsenal he can be a well rounded offensive threat. He will never be a stout rim protector but he shows great promise as a man defender in the post. Paul Millsap is a damn good 2 way player and Randle can potentially reach that level.

8. Marcus Smart *High Intangibles

Ceiling - Eric Bledsoe (17ppg, 5 assists, 1.6 steals)
Likely - Rodney Stuckey with Elite D (15ppg, 5 assists, 1.5 steals)
Worst - Dominique Jones (8ppg, 3 assists, 1 steal)

Like Randle there is alot to question about Smart as a high level NBA player. The Wade comparison's need to stop. Wade although struggling with a jumper, scored at a 50% clip at Marquette. In comparison Smart shot 40%.
Smart was thrust into a position to be the number one option at Oklahoma State, which could have limited what we saw in regards to his ability as a full time point guard..but his assist/turnover ratio doesn't help that. Smart has a Jordan/Kobe level of insane competiveness that will allow him to reach his potential unlike the lackadaisical/"Just got paid" approach other combo guards before him possessed like Randy Foye and Rodney Stuckey. He will always be a tremendous defender, and at his best I can see him being a dangerous, although out of control, turnover combo guard like Bledsoe. At the worst I can see him being a nice ball handler off the bench that can torch 2nd units.

9. Nik Stauskas *High Character

Ceiling - Kevin Martin..less selfish..(18ppg, 5 assists, 4 rebs)
Likely - Brent Barry (15ppg, 5 assists, 4 rebs)
Worst - John Jenkins (8ppg, 2 assists, 2 rebs)

Like Randle, Parker and Smart this is another high character guy who is going to work his ass off to be the absolute best he can be. Watching him on film he looks like an identical offensive version of Klay Thompson. Absolutely lethal from the outside, can dribble and make difficult step backs, runners, you name it. He is also a very creative ball handler who possesses tremendous court vision and sets teammates up for easy buckets. He will never be the defender Klay is due to his lack of foot speed and wingspan. He will struggle as top flight athletic guards will beable to attack the rim at will on him. He is not Jimmer Freddette on on that side of the ball, as he tries and can make some good plays, so it is not out of the question for Malone to get him to become an adequate team defender some day.

10. Noah Vonleh !! Inner Drive Question

Ceiling - Fat Chris Bosh (19ppg, 10 rebs)
Likely - JJ Hickson 3.0 (15ppg, 9 rebs)
Worst - Jason Thompson (8ppg, 5 rebs)

Vonleh is a mixed bag. Some times he looks great, other times he just makes bonehead plays. That's what comes with being a 19year old, as he will be sure to struggle during his first 2 seasons in the NBA. He is in a great situation to learn behind Al Jefferson much like Favors did in Utah. He rebounds at an elite level, and that normally always translates. He also possess tremendous potential on Defense. His best asset is his ball handling ability for a bigman. His shooting is a bit overrated and can prove to be the deciding factor on whether or not he makes the leap to a bonifide contributer or not. His main issue stems from his lack of motor, and questions about his desire to be a Go To player. This is why the Kings passed on him in favor of a guy like Stauskas, as they drafted a low IQ, low intangible pick like Ben Mclemore last year.

Tier 3
These are players that can potentially be seen as 3rd bananas on a championship level team.

11. Dario Saric

Ceiling - Hedu Turkoglu (17ppg, 6 rebs, 6 assists)
Likely - Boris Diaw (15ppg, 5 rebs, 4 assists)
Worst - Franz Vasquez (8ppg, 4 rebs, 2 assists)

High motor player who plays the game with great passion and intensity. Virtually a swiss army knife that can do a little bit of everything, and in an era of ball movement and anti Iso offense he is a terrific player to have. One area of concern is his defense, and what position he can guard. Not big enough to bang down low, and not quick enough to guard wings consistantly on the perimiter. Thankfully he is going to be playing with Twin towers in Embiid and Noel and defensive minded guards like KJ McDaniels and MCW. Much like Hedu Turkoglu in his hay day in Orlando, he can be potentially hidden. He might be best served coming off the bench as a miss match forward, who can initiate offense and score. In that case he would be up for 6th man of the year every season.

12. Rodney Hood

Ceiling - Rashard Lewis (18ppg, 4 rebs, 3 assists)
Likely - Calbert Chayney (15ppg, 4 rebs, 3 assists)
Worst - James Jones (9ppg, 2 assists, 2 rebs)

Well rounded offensive player. One of the best shooters hands down in the country, from spotting up to off the dribble. He may struggle to create for himself which will prevent him from ever becoming a #1 scoring option much like Rashard Lewis took the back seat during his career to Ray Allen and Gary Payton. He possesses a high basketball IQ, and despite being a lethal scorer is extremely unselfish and is capable of making plays for others. The ugly is on the defensive side of the ball. If a coach is able to dial in his focus on this side to balance for his proficient offense he will be a very good player. Many of his mistakes come from a general lack of focus so he isn't completely a lost cause on that end.

13. Zach Lavine

Ceiling - Monta Ellis (18ppg, 3 rebs, 3 assists)
Likely - Brandon Knight (16ppg, 3 assists)
Worst - Josh Selby (6ppg, 2 assists)

Zach Lavine is the ultimate boom or bust pick. He may struggle to find his niche like an Austin Rivers, he may turnout to be a lethal combo guard. Only time will tell. The Westbrook comparisons are way off based, as Westbrook was PAC DPOY, and Lavine struggles to guard a chair. His insane physical gifts and athletic ability could lead him to becoming a decent defender over time however. He will never be a point guard, at least not on a winning team. Like Brandon Knight his best role might be a scoring guard off the bench to torch 2nd units. What sets him apart from a guy like Knight is his incredible athletic ability which will enable him to get his shot off of anybody. Ellis is a great player when in the right situation, and it would not shock me for Lavine to reach that level, although not shooting 20+ times a game. A prime Ellis is behind prime Rashard Lewis and Turkoglu which is why he is 13 on my big board.

Tier 4

High Level Starters. These are players with the potential to become high quality starters over their careers. They may never sniff an All star game, but their impact should be positive.

14. Adrian Payne

Ceiling - Homeless, starving Rasheed Wallace (16ppg, 9 rebs)
Likely - Robert Horry (12ppg, 8 rebs)
Worst - Old Robert Horry (6ppg, 3.5 rebs)

Payne is a big man who from the surface level has all the desirable skills. He can pick and pop with the best of them. He is about as explosive as it gets for a Center. He can protect the rim and block shots. He is a team player. Because of the high demand for solid bigs he is 14 on my board. With the game turning more perimeter oriented, lone behold...he can shoot the 3 ball as well! The Huge issue with him is his lack of upside as he is going to be 24 in the middle of the season. He lacks defensive focus and isn't going to be a plus player right off the bat, but he will certainly not be a liability like an Arnett Moultrie or JJ Hickson. At the worst he will be a decent rotational big. Like Vonleh he is in a perfect situation to learn behind Horford and Millsap.

15. Clint Capela

Ceiling - Serge Ibaka with no offense (10ppg, 10 rebs, 2.8 blocks)
Likely - Bismak Biyombo (8ppg, 8rebs, 2 blocks)
Worst - Saer Sene (2ppg, 2 rebs)

Defensive big men are a luxery. This is a serious boom or bust pick, but if you look back I'm sure teams would take the chance on a Serge Ibaka in a redraft of 2009. Capela will never be the offensive threat Ibaka is, but he is very similar on the defensive end, a lanky big who can block shots with the best of them, but may struggle guarding bigger bodies down low. I would not be shocked if he makes a minimal impact on the league. I also would not be shocked to see him get paid 8million per year at some point. In the middle of the round thats the type of chance you need to take. Your team will not be set back 5 years for taking a bust at 15 instead of a Gary Harris. But you will look back and be in tears if you passed on the next big thing from overseas.

16. Doug McDermott **High Character

Ceiling - Wally Szerbiak (17ppg, 5 rebs)
Likely - Bigger Kyle Koorver (13ppg, 3 rebs)
Worst - Steve Novak (8ppg, Elite Shooting)

You know what your going to get with this guy. No gimmicks, no flash, just elite level shooting. Even in his summer league scoring barage he may have had 2 pts out of 30 where he took more than 3 dribbles to get his shot off. He will be an asset for years in an era that prioritizes 3pt shooting. Being in Chicago will only enhance his value as he will be getting a ton of open looks. He will be abused down low and exposed on the perimeter, but his offensive scoring ability is good enough to make up for it. He will thrive playing as a stretch 4 next to Noah that's for sure.

17) TJ Warren

Ceiling - Caron Butler Less Defense (17ppg, 5 rebs, 2 assists)
Likely - Jarvis Hayes (10ppg, 4 rebs, 2 assists)
Worst - Morris Almond (6ppg, 3 rebs, 1 assists)

Well rounded, smart, efficient offensive player. He posted insane production in a good conference and was only a Sophomore. He lacks a go to move to ever be considered a number 1 or even 2 option. He lacks a consistent 3 pt shot, and he isn't going to blow by you athletically. He does possess a great offensive IQ, will make cuts and get easy looks. He also has a nice post up game. I have him above McDermott because in time he can prove to be a quality defender at the position. At the worst I can see him being a nice toy to use off the bench and get some quick buckets, which is an asset to any team.


18. Jusuf Nurkic

Ceiling - Nikola Pekovic (16ppg, 9 rebs)
Likely - Zaza Pachulia (12ppg, 6.5 rebs)
Worst - Timofey Mozgov (6ppg, 3.5 rebs)

This is a young 19year old who is far from NBA ready. That being said down the line you may have yourself a sleeper Center prospect. Like Pekovic he is a big bodied bruiser who loves physical contact. He has some post moves, a reliable hook and extremely soft hands. He shows more promise as a rim protector, showing decent skills on that end. Is extremely raw and needs alot of work on the fundamentals,and needs to learn how to cut down his fouling. At the worst your getting a huge body on your bench.


19. Bruno Caboccolo

Ceiling - Nic Batum (15ppg, 6 rebs, 1 block)
Worst - Austin Daye (6ppg, 3 rebs)

Extremely raw but possesses unreal physical attributes and length, Its hard not to imagine this guy as a decent defender after a good 3-5 years of seasoning. He has shown he has the ability to consistently hit outside shots, and has the athletic ability to get to the rim. Unlike Batum, he has a lot of work to do on his ball handling and will never be a primary facilitator. A long 3 and D player in the NBA is well worth a middle first round pick.

20. Shabazz Napier

Ceiling - Mike Bibby (17ppg, 6 assists, 1 steal)
Likely - Ramon Sessions (13ppg, 5 assists)
Worst - Trey Burke (2014 season)

Scrappy guard who has a knack for hitting the big shot and coming up big when it matters. He is a pesky on ball defender, who might struggle at the next level with bigger guards. He can be ball dominant, but has also shown he can create for others. Ultimately his length and athleticism are going to be obstacles for him to become a solid starting point guard. He is never going to be an efficient scorer, and struggles to get to the line at a high rate. That being said, there is no reason why he can't develop into one of the better backup PG's in the NBA, which is a solid find in the late first round.

Tier 5

These are players who have the potential to be decent starters, or more specifically #1 options and tools off the bench.

20. Jordan Adams **High Intangibles

Ceiling - Wesley Matthews (16ppg, 5 rebs, 3 assists, 1 steal)
Likely - Jodi Meeks (14ppg, 4 rebs, 2 assists, 1 steal)
Worst - Anthony Morrow (5ppg, 2 rebs, 1 assists)

Looking at strictly UCLA box scores you would think Adams was one of the best players in the country. He is a crafty, smart offensive player who gets the most out of his ability. Unlike most go to scoring options,(for example Shabazz Muhammed) this is a guy who plays as if he is the 12th man vying for scrap minutes, hustling for every loose ball, fighting for every rebound. He rebounds at an Evan Turner rate, and is among the nations leaders in steals. Easy to see why analytic GM John Hollinger picked him at 20. He has serious athletic limitations in his game, and will struggle to get off his shot at the next level. He will never be a standout defender, but like Wesley Matthews he can prove to be a pest to opponents.

21. Mitch McGary

Ceiling - Nick Collison 2.0 (13ppg, 7 reb)
Likely - Tyler Hansborogh with Range (9ppg, 5 rebs)

Very crafty big who unlike most finesse players, loves to hustle and bang down low. You can count on him at the least to be a decent rotational big who is going to rebound and hit some shots for you. What sets him apart from a guy like Hansborogh are his measurable as he clocks in with a 8'11 standing reach. Possesses high basketball IQ and has shown he can be a great passer out of the high post, as well as run the floor. He may never be athletic enough to be considered a full time starter or plus defender, but this is a guy everyone will want on their team.

22. KJ McDaniels

Ceiling - Thabo Sefolosha (13ppg, 6 rebs, 1 block, elite defense)
Likely - Wesley Johnson (9ppg, 5 rebs, Elite defense)
Worst - Bad Corey Brewe (5ppg, 3 rebs, good defense)

Standing at 6'7 with a 6'11 wingpsan McDaniels can be a serious defensive presence at the next level. He was one of the best shotblockers in the country last seasons as a small forward. His quick instincts and anticipation also helps him force a ton of turnovers. He is very streaky shooting the ball and will have to improve on that if he wants to ever be a quality starter who isn't a liability on offense. He's athletic enough to get by on the offensive end, and he will crash the boards hard. Terrific value as a role player


24. Gary Harris

Ceiling - OJ Mayo (15ppg, 5 rebs, 3 assists)
Likely - Courtney Lee (11ppg, 3 rebs, 2 assists)
Worst - ? (6ppg, 2 rebs, 2 assists)

Smart two way player who isn't going to wow you with any one aspect of his game. He has a reliable, but not automatic jumper. Most of his points in the summer league were off catch and shoot, as he struggles and seems unable to generate his own offense. Didn't shoot a high Fg% (40%) and struggled with decision making at times. He was known as a good defender in college, but at the next level he isn't going to be able to make a difference against the likes of James Harden, Demar Derozan, Lance Stephensons or Klay Thompson. Like most Tom Izzo products he will be a good player to have on your bench.



25. Kyle Anderson

Ceiling - Boris Diaw (13ppg, 5 rebs, 5 assists)
Likely - Evan Turner (11ppg, 5 rebs, 5 assists)
Worst - Luke Walton (6ppg, 3 rebs, 2 assists)

One of the most interesting players in the nation. A definition of a stat sheet stuffer, able to rebound, pass and score efficiently. He plays at a slow motion pace, and lacks the footspeed to be a factor on defense, but has a massive 7'2 wingspan that may aid him in that respect. His incredible basketball IQ will keep him around for a long time, even if he fails to ever make a substancial impact or reach his potential. The big question is what position do you play him at? Is he a facilitating 3 or a 1. He could play his way into a larger than life Andre Miller. Who knows. Biggest Mystery in the draft.


26. James Young

Ceiling - Nick Young (16ppg, 5 rebs, 2 assists)
Likely - Morris Peterson (12ppg, 4 rebs, 2 assists)
Worst - Daquan Cook (6ppg, 2 assists)

This is a guy who in my opinion should have stayed in school. Had he improved on both sides of the ball with his shooting consistency and shown he can be a plus defender he could have vaulted himself into surefire lottery contention. Instead he comes into the NBA a very raw prospect. Much Like Daquan Cook who was a decorated HS Star but never was able to improve his game. He has the length and measurables to be a good defender, but for now he is a huge liability on that end. He struggled with his shot for large stretches of the season, and lacks the ability to consistently create for himself. He also isn't much of an athlete compared to NBA standards. That leads the question to be asked..what's his niche? In the NBA typically you need 1 skill to hang your hat on and to stick around with. I just don't see him having one, much like Austin Rivers. Now if he is able to develop he can potentially be a solid backup swingman in the mold of a Morris Peterson. Worth taking a first round flyer on.

27. PJ Hairston !! Huge Character Concerns

Ceiling - JR Smith Denver (17ppg, 2.5 assists)
Likely - Marcus Thornton (10ppg, 2 assists)
Worst - Out of League

Talented scorer who is a severe head case. Heard through the grapevine from a buddy who played with him at Hargrove that he was apparently kicked off North Carolina after the Cops caught him smoking weed at Roy Williams house (who he was living with at the time). With all of these red flags his first 2 weeks after being drafted he is charged with assaulting a 16yr old during a basketball game, and allegedly lent Josh Gordon his car in which he got pulled over and charged a DUI for...Now onto basketball. Despite this kid's lack of common sense, he can really shoot the ball. He is a bit streaky in that regard, and projects a heat check bench scorer. He has lapses on defense and takes some bad shots, but he will shoot you into some games and shoot you out of them. Comes with the territory.

28. Tyler Ennis

Ceiling - George Hill (13ppg, 7 assists)
Likely - Eric Maynor (6ppg, 3 assists)
Worst - Kendall Marshall pre Diantoni (2ppg, 1 assists)

Typically, savvy collegiate point guards without an elite skill do not fair well once they get into the NBA. The summer league wasn't very kind to Ennis as he was virtually unable to get any offense going for himself. The positives are that he is an extremely smart player, who rarely turns the ball over. He is an aggressive defender, and will find a way to stick around as a decent backup in the league.


Tier 6

Players with the potential to become solid Rotational players off the bench.

29. Jarnell Stokes

Ceiling - Glenn Davis (13ppg, 8 rebs)
Likely - Dejuan Blair (8ppg, 5 rebs)
Worst - Sean May (5ppg, 3 rebs)

Powerful low post player, who is great at establishing his will around the basket. His athleticism is going to limit him, coupled with his ability to defend the position. He is a very consistent player, and tenacious rebounder which almost always translates to the next level.


30. CleAnthony Early

Ceiling - Cliff Robinson (14ppg, 6 rebs)
Likely - Ryan Gomes (10ppg, 5 rebs)
Bust - Alonzo Gee (5ppg, 3 rebs)

Doesn't really have a defined position, but he is a gamer who comes up big in the most important games. At 23 he lacks sufficient upside, and lacks the ball handling and iso game to be a full time wing. He has shown he can hit the 3 pointer with consistency so his future may be as an undersized stretch 4. He certainly has the length, and has shown he can post up at times so that is not out of the question.


31. Jordan Clarkson PG
32. Russ Smith PG
33. Nick Johnson SG
34. Roy Devyn Marble SG
35. Patric Young PF

[majortom71]

Wow very nice work! I like how you have Rodney Hood high, I expect him to be better than where he got drafted.
I can't really argue your rankings, it's hard to predict how these guys do but this years class looks quite solid.

[Kova]

Šarić is tier 2.

[76ersfan]

Very nice list. Your projections are right on.

[76thBearCub]

Interesting. You put some serious time into that. Nice work

[MRxBLACK]

Nice job, it should be interesting for you to go back and read those projections four or so years from now. The only ranking that I have a problem with is Hood, I think he's awful.

[Mr Sixer]

Interesting way of looking a things. Although this was originally thought of as a "Big 3" draft or maybe even Big 4 since Exum was an unknown, looking purely at potential I think I could agree with you to put Gordon up there, even though I find it highly unlikely for him to reach that because I don't think he will have the offensive arsenal. Also if we're going purely off potential I think that Embiid and Wiggins should be in a tier of their own.

[roma258]

After reading the Kyle Korver Grantland article (ok, even before that), I think people are really underrating the impact Dougie McBuckets will have in the league. His shooting, above average athleticism and knowledge of the game is going to really cause some issues for opposing defenses. In many ways, he's the ideal offensive player for today's game.

[Broad+Pattison]

Very well done man, good work.

[Koorverfor3]

Thanks guys.

Im working on a Draft Guide for Dummies that is a scientific poor mans analytic approach to ranking prospects soon..ill have to go back and apply it to these rankings.

[F-Stop]

this is really strong work . I wish I had the time to expand on this.

I wish some one could do the NBA front offices in regards to player development.
The chances or percentage a team could help a player reach their ceiling.

[Agnostifarian]

this is really strong work . I wish I had the time to expand on this.

I wish some one could do the NBA front offices in regards to player development.
The chances or percentage a team could help a player reach their ceiling.

It would be really interesting to see a study done over 10 or 20 years that "tiers" player development by organization. The hardest thing would be to define "development." PER might be good for this purpose. Maybe you'd look at avg change in PER for drafted and signed players over their first three years with a team... That might be a good start.

[Agnostifarian]

Thanks guys.

Im working on a Draft Guide for Dummies that is a scientific poor mans analytic approach to ranking prospects soon..ill have to go back and apply it to these rankings.

Really thoughtful. Thanks. Question: Did you include Summer League performances in your rankings? Specifically, TJ Warren looked great, IMO. I'm thinking his "old man, mid range game" actually hurt him given that we are all so enamored of the 3 point shot and layups. I think the guy is going to light it up. He reminds me a little bit of Bernard King who was phenomenal before injuring his knee.

[MountainDrew]

Props for taking the time to write all this. I agree with a lot of it, though I dislike Warren and Hood

[Agnostifarian]

Props for taking the time to write all this. I agree with a lot of it, though I dislike Warren and Hood

How much "dislike?" I'd prefer either player over Thad, for instance.

[LloydFree]

Props for taking the time to write all this. I agree with a lot of it, though I dislike Warren and Hood

How much "dislike?" I'd prefer either player over Thad, for instance.

I don't think Rodney Hood ever gets much better than a Dorell Wright level player. I'm not a huge Thad Young booster, by any means, but Rodney Hood isn't on his level.

[MountainDrew]

Props for taking the time to write all this. I agree with a lot of it, though I dislike Warren and Hood

How much "dislike?" I'd prefer either player over Thad, for instance.

Id take them over Thad because they're talented guys on rookie deals, but I just dont like their games. Hood is kind of one dimensional and Warren is too unorthodox for my liking, shooting a bunch of floaters and midrange shots.

[LloydFree]

Props for taking the time to write all this. I agree with a lot of it, though I dislike Warren and Hood

How much "dislike?" I'd prefer either player over Thad, for instance.

Id take them over Thad because they're talented guys on rookie deals, but I just dont like their games. Hood is kind of one dimensional and Warren is too unorthodox for my liking, shooting a bunch of floaters and midrange shots.

I'm not a big fan of TJ Warren. I'm hesitant to criticize his game though, because he is so unorthodox, it may make him successfully. He doesn't have a good comparable.

[Agnostifarian]

How much "dislike?" I'd prefer either player over Thad, for instance.

Id take them over Thad because they're talented guys on rookie deals, but I just dont like their games. Hood is kind of one dimensional and Warren is too unorthodox for my liking, shooting a bunch of floaters and midrange shots.

I'm not a big fan of TJ Warren. I'm hesitant to criticize his game though, because he is so unorthodox, it may make him successfully. He doesn't have a good comparable.

Do you remember Bernard King?

[Agnostifarian]

Props for taking the time to write all this. I agree with a lot of it, though I dislike Warren and Hood

How much "dislike?" I'd prefer either player over Thad, for instance.

Id take them over Thad because they're talented guys on rookie deals, but I just dont like their games. Hood is kind of one dimensional and Warren is too unorthodox for my liking, shooting a bunch of floaters and midrange shots.

That's how Iverson scored. Why can't a SF be effective in the same way?